Pardon me for missing an exciting day’s count in Mawson, where Leon Bignell appears to have held on – since my last update two days ago, the votes have broken 1003-909 his way, increasing his lead to 184. Only a small trickle of postal votes should be outstanding at this point.
Labor’s lead in Mawson now down to 90, as today’s update breaks 536-437 to Liberal, in near identical proportion to the first batch of 1940 declaration votes yesterday.
As the table below illustrates, things are going heavily the Liberals way in all five seats. It was a particularly good day for Rachel Sanderson in Adelaide, who now looks set to hang on, and Newland, Heysen and King are now beyond doubt. The only real question now would seem to be Mawson, where Labor member Leon Bignell’s lead diminished from 415 to 189. If that trend continues his lead will slip away shortly, but it may not do so – in particular, I would assume the votes added to the count are pre-polls and perhaps postals, with the absent votes, which should be more favourable, yet to come. I’m projecting a Liberal winning margin of 271, but there’s a lot I don’t know about the count.
Yesterday’s late counting action was limited to rechecking and adding to the count incomplete ballot papers that are “saved” under the state’s unique provision in which missing numbers get filled out according to the favoured preference order of the party who received their primary vote. This has turned the Liberals’ 67 vote lead in Adelaide into a deficit of 116, and reduced my projection of their winning margin from 447 to a dicey 192. Conversely, their lead in Newland is out from 298 to 388, and the projection from 595 to 713; and Mawson is little changed, with Labor’s lead up from 387 to 415, and my projection of the Liberal winning margin down from 239 to 205. As noted yesterday though, Labor may well do better on late counting this time than last time, as they will have put more effort in in those parts of the electorate that were formerly in Finniss. No new counting was conducted in King, which I’m still tracking although the Liberals are all but certain to win. Much more progress should be made in today’s count, as the action moves on to the very substantial pre-polls.