Every seat in alphabetical order, with commentary where there’s anything that needs saying. See the post below this one for my first take on the Legislative Council.
Albany. Before: Labor 1.0%. After: Labor, unknown. I’m a little confused here, because the Nationals rather than the Liberals finished second here, and the WAEC presumably only conducted a Labor-versus-Liberal two-party count, which has been pulled from their site. So I can only assume the Labor-versus-Nationals result displayed on the ABC site is based on Antony’s estimate, and not as I first suspected a rebadged Labor-versus-Liberal result. Certainly the margin displayed is more what would expect from a Labor-versus-Nationals count, i.e. lower. If so, the result for Watson is better than the swing makes it appear – more like an 8% than 5.5%. That’s still more remarkable given that Watson’s excellent electoral performance in the past presumably meant he didn’t have as much slack to take up.
Armadale. Before: Labor 9.6%. After: Labor 25.0%.
Balcatta. Before: Liberal 7.1%. After: Labor 5.8%. Labor’s defeat here was their first in a history going back to 1962, and the swing was fairly typical for Perth.
Baldivis. Before: Labor 6.1%. After: Unknown. Reece Whitby hasn’t completely shaken off the electoral bogey that followed him through two failed bids for Morley, as he is being run fairly close by independent Matt Whitfield. In this he has suffered from the collapse in the collapse of the Liberals, who went from 33.1% to 14.2% and finished third. Whitfield would win the seat if he got 82.6% of the preferences from the Liberals, One Nation (7.0%), Greens (5.1%) and the rest (5.8%). The ABC projection is crediting him with two-thirds, but Carol Adams got around three-quarters under similar circumstances in Kwinana, from which Baldivis draws most of its voters. She also did very badly on absent votes, for some reason. Presumably a Labor-versus-independent vote will be conducted tomorrow, and I won’t be calling this until I see it.
Bassendean. Before: Labor 5.1%. After: Labor 21.7%.
Bateman. Before: Liberal 23.1%. After: Liberal 10.0%.
Belmont. Before: Liberal 1.0%. After: Labor 13.2%. Another seat Labor lost for the first time in 2013, and has now recovered with a vengeance on the back of a regulation 13.2% swing.
Bicton. Before: Liberal 10.0%. After: Labor 2.4%. Dean Nalder’s determination to contest Bateman instead was vindicated by a fairly typical 12.4% swing, contrary to impressions that the Perth Freight Link might make a difference one way or the other.
Bunbury. Before: Liberal 12.2%. After: Labor 11.3%. The Liberal vote fell 30.6% in John Castrilli’s absence to 45.3%, translating into a devastating 23.4% swing to Labor. The Nationals campaigned pretty hard here but only gained 6.5%, and finished well behind the Liberals in third.
Burns Beach. Before: Liberal 11.3%. After: Labor 2.7%. Environment Minister Albert Jacob gained the notionally Labor seat of Ocean Reef when he entered parliament in 2008, and now he’s lost its reconfigured successor on the back of a fairly typical 14.1% swing.
Butler. Before: Labor 1.0%. After: Labor 19.9%. John Quigley’s 18.9% swing is particularly notable given he only suffered a 1.1% swing in 2013.
Cannington. Before: Labor 2.1%. After: Labor 18.7%.
Carine. Before: Liberal 18.3%. After: Liberal 9.9%.
Central Wheatbelt. Before: Nationals 8.9% versus Liberal. After: Nationals unknown. The Liberal vote went from 31.2% to 11.0%, which presumably reflects conservative voters falling in behind Nationals member Mia Davies, who was up slightly, now she’s the sitting member. A former upper house MP, she came to the seat in 2013, filling the vacancy created by Brendon Grylls’ move to Pilbara. The Liberals fell to third, so the notional count was redundant, and the two-party result on the ABC computer is presumably an estimate.
Churchlands. Before: Liberal 20.0%. After: Liberal 14.6%.
Cockburn. Before: Labor 4.6%. After: Labor 16.2%.
Collie-Preston. Before: Liberal 2.9%*. After: Labor 13.9%. Big swings here across the board as Mick Murray effortlessly retained a seat that had been made notionally Liberal by the redistribution, but the biggest of all were in suburban Bunbury.
Cottesloe. Before: Liberal 21.1%. After: Liberal 13.8%. Swings were relatively modest in the wealthy western suburbs, including the one against the Premier.
Darling Range. Before: Liberal 13.1%. After: Labor 5.4%. A well above par 18.4% swing delivered Labor one of its strongest wins, and typified the Liberal collapse in the outer suburbs.
Dawesville. Before: Liberal 12.7%. After: Labor 1.6%. A nervous debut for Zak Kirkup, who succeeds former Deputy Premier Kim Hames.
Forrestfield. Before: Liberal 2.2%. After: Labor 9.6%. A slightly below average swing, but plenty enough to take out a fragile Liberal margin in this eastern Perth seat.
Fremantle. Before: Labor 15.4%. After: Labor 24.0%. Of academic here of interest is who finishes second out of Liberal and the Greens – the Liberals are on 20.0% and Greens are on 18.1%, and presumably preferences won’t close the gap. Labor’s Simone McGurk won a clear majority on the primary vote.
Geraldton. Before: Liberal 10.9% versus Nationals. After: Liberal 0.8%. The ABC computer says the swing here is 10.1%, but it’s wrongly measuring the Liberal-versus-Labor result from this election with the Liberals-versus-Nationals result from the last. The real figure is 22%, which appears to have brought Labor to just short of victory in a seat where they finished third in 2013. Nationals candidate Paul Brown, who was seeking to move from the upper house, came in third.
Girrawheen. Before: Labor 2.8%. After: Labor 16.7%.
Hillarys. Before: Liberal 16.0%. After: Liberal 3.9%. Liberal-turned-independent Rob Johnson came in third with 21.0% to Labor’s 28.2%. Liberal candidate Peter Katsambanis, with 39.7%, would have been in big trouble if he had got ahead of Labor and soaked up their preferences.
Jandakot. Before: Liberal 18.3%. After: Labor 0.1%. Liberal leadership hopeful Joe Francis going right down to the wire here, with absents and outstanding postals to decide the result. Based on the past form of such votes, my guess would be that he will sneak over the line.
Joondalup. Before: Liberal 10.4%. After: Labor 0.5%. The 11.0% swing against Liberal member Jan Norberger was fairly modest by outer suburban standards, and he may yet hang on.
Kalamunda. Before: Liberal 10.3%. After: Labor 3.1%. A typical 13.3% swing was sufficient to tip out Health Minister John Day out, and deliver Labor a seat it had never before held (it existed from 1974 to 1989, and has done so again since 2008).
Kalgoorlie. Before: Nationals 3.2% versus Liberal 10.3%. After: Unknown. The ABC computer says the Liberals will gain this from the Nationals with a margin of 5.1%, but this assumes these will be the last two candidates, when there’s an effective three-way tie between Labor, Liberal and Nationals from the top three positions. I believe it’s also based on an estimated preference flow, since there’s no two-party result shown on the WAEC site. For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t have thought Labor and One Nation preferences would have favoured the Liberals. Nationals candidate Tony Crook will certainly win if preferences cause the Liberals to finish third.
Kimberley. Before: Labor 5.1%. After: Labor 8.8%. Unclear here who finishes second out of Liberal and Nationals, but Labor goes untroubled either way. The swing was relatively mild, as it was in 2013.
Kingsley. Before: Liberal 14.0%. After: Labor 0.8%. Labor with their nose ahead in a close race in a seat they had only previously won in 2005, after a fairly normal 14.9% swing.
Kwinana. Before: Labor 18.5%. After: Labor 4.3%. At his third election, incoming Deputy Premier Roger Cook finally goes undisturbed by independent Carol Adams.
Maylands. Before: Labor 2.7%. After: Labor 18.4%.
Midland. Before: Labor 0.5%. After: Labor 13.0%. An easier night for Michelle Roberts this time around.
Mirrabooka. Before: Labor 4.6%. After: Labor 19.2%.
Moore. Before: Nationals 5.9% versus Liberals. After: Nationals 8.7% versus Liberals.
Morley. Before: Liberal 4.7%. After: Labor 12.1%. A particularly big swing in a seat Labor didn’t expect to lose in 2008, and couldn’t win back in 2013.
Mount Lawley. Before: Liberal 8.9%. After: Labor 3.8%. A regulation swing tips out the Liberals in a seat that wouldn’t have responded too favourably to the One Nation preference deal.
Murray-Wellington. Before: Liberal 12.0%. After: Labor 1.1%. Labor looks like it’s done enough in a seat it has only won in the past when it was more oriented to Mandurah, with a mid-range 13.1% swing.
Nedlands. Before: Liberal 19.1%. After: Liberal 8.8%.
North West Central. Before: Nationals 11.5%. After: Nationals 8.8%. I think the WAEC conducted a Nationals-versus-Liberal count that proved redundant because the Liberals crashed to third, so I guess the ABC figure is an estimate.
Perth. Before: Liberal 2.8%. After: Labor 12.5%. A particularly big 15.3% swing in a seat Labor was always going to recover, perhaps reflecting an inner-city One Nation preference deal effect.
Pilbara. Before: Nationals 11.5%. After: Labor 1.4%. I called this seat for Brendon Grylls on ABC Radio, so I’m a bit perplexed that the preference count has him trailing Labor by 1.4% at the end of the night. Preferences overall appear to be splitting evenly, which is pretty extraordinary given their make-up: Liberal 14.6%, One Nation 11.1%, Shooters 9.9%, Greens 3.8%.
Riverton. Before: Liberal 12.7%. After: Liberal 4.5%. Another relatively mild swing in a stronger Liberal seat.
Rockingham. Before: Labor 13.2%. After: Labor 23.9%.
Roe. Before: Nationals 16.7% versus Liberal. After: Liberal 14.9% versus Nationals. This is a new seat that essentially merges Wagin, held by Terry Waldron of the Nationals, and Graham Jacobs, a Liberal. Waldron didn’t contest, but Jacobs was nonetheless unable to put the Nationals under serious pressure.
Scarborough. Before: Liberal 17.3%. After: Liberal 5.1%.
South Perth. Before: Liberal 20.0%. After: Liberal 7.7%.
Southern River. Before: Liberal 10.9%. After: Labor 8.6%. A massive swing to Labor in an area that also moved heavily in their favour at the federal election.
Swan Hills. Before: Liberal 3.7%. After: Labor 14.2%. Always a very likely Labor gain, but went well beyond the call of duty with a swing of 17.9%.
Thornlie. Before: Labor 1.8%. After: Labor 15.9%.
Vasse. Before: Liberal 21.1%. After: Liberal 15.0%.
Victoria Park. Before: Labor 4.0%. After: Labor 16.6%.
Wanneroo. Before: Liberal 11.0%. After: Labor 8.0%. The one seat where the Liberals really hoped the One Nation preference deal might do them some good returned a 19.0% swing, in another example of the outer suburbs effect. One Nation polled 9.6% — a look at their preference flow will have to wait for tomorrow.
Warnbro. Before: Labor 10.6%. After: Labor 24.2%.
Warren-Blackwood. Before: Nationals 7.2% versus Liberal. After: Nationals 12.0%. Another former Nationals-versus-Liberal contest where the Liberals fell to third.
West Swan. Before: Liberal 0.9%*. After: Labor 18.5%. Made notionally Liberal by the redistribution, but swung fully as forcefully as neighbouring Swan Hills.
Willagee. Before: Labor 2.5%. After: Labor 16.4%.
To all the Sandgropers, THANK YOU! 🙂
Wow! Liberal Primary Vote got as low as 29% during the campaign in WA!
“Balcatta. Before: Liberal 7.1%. After: Labor 5.8%. Labor’s defeat here was their first in a history going back to 1962, and the swing was fairly typical for Perth.”
Liberal’s defeat, perhaps?
C@T…I feel especially pleased this morning. I’ve been saying for weeks that we would defeat both the Liberals and their breakaway, ON, at the same time. And we did!!!!!!!
The candidates in the Northern suburbs gave everything they had to their campaigns and have prevailed, sometimes against very intense counter-campaigning by their Liberal opponents.
A particular delight for me is the result in Joondalup. I have felt all along that the result would be very tight, as indeed it will be, and that the ON-aligned independent would fail. I had a conversation with this individual on the first day of pre-polling in Joondalup. Full of self-confidence, he asked me what I thought would happen. I told him we would win. He asked how I expected how he would fare. I told him if he did very very well he may hit 4% but it was more likely he would get 3%. He was furious, taking this as a personal insult. He spent 3 weeks glowering at me, much to my amusement. In the end, he seems to have attracted 2.99% of the PV. His paltry few prefs will help bring about the defeat of the Lib. Lovely.
I had a fear that while Labor would win, it might be only by a couple of seats and the margins in many would be narrow leaving the Libs well placed to fight back.
Wrong and wrong.
Happy about that
Scrutineered in small Pilbara country booth. Only 66 formal votes so no statistical significance, but interestingly both Liberal and ON preferences split 50-50 between Labor and National.
briefly:
I was HTVing yesterday morning and felt there was a sense of a mood for change. I’m so glad Watson has increased his margin.
Are the figures for the Kwinana before and after the right way around?
Confessions
Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 9:50 am
Very palpable desire for change out my way….huge result. We are changing the northern suburbs…and we’re not done yet!
briefly:
Yes some big swings in the northern suburbs. Well done.
I wonder how long it will be until we see a by-election in Cottesloe.
Well done to my fellow sandgropers.
A great result and a total repudiation of the politics of fear, envy and ignorance.
And on my late mother’s birthday too – she would have been proud of that result.
Balcatta is back home where it belongs.
Is this now the current thread to post in? (even though its WA results)
Ides:
The old one is still going
https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/03/07/essential-research-53-47-labor-6/comment-page-49/#comment-2556239
Confessions
I doubt Barnett will stay long and I don’t really have a problem with that despite the cost etc of a by-election.
The interesting thing will be to see the liberal factions at work in choosing his replacement. The religous right might try to move in one of yesterday’s losers like Albert Jacob or Joe Francis if he doesnt hang on. I doubt that would go over well with locals in the western suburbs.
Also will be interesting to see how Cormann, regarded as the architect of the ON deal, fares in the washup. This may erode his power in the party a little
So former channel 7 reporter Reece Whitby is the new member for Morley yeah?
Seems like a good bloke.
rossmcg:
I don’t have a problem with Barnett retiring either. Win or lose this election he was always going this term anyway.
Cormann has been furiously digging this morning in an effort to defend the indefensible.
Henry
No. Whitby stood in the new seat of Baldivis
Right, ok thanks Ross.
Great result in WA. Congratulations to Briefly and other Bludgers who helped make it happen.
A bloodbath.
Clearly the WA voters have taken to McGowans no-nonsense style.
Big swings all over the shop as expected, but the PHONs imploding in the last 2 or 3 days really sealed the deal with the two-party preferred.
How appropriate, a WA tourism ad on TV just then.
Beyond my very nervous and conservative hopes………….for the first 50 minutes when nothing seemed to be happening I had that, “here we go again” feeling that at the last minute, the swing had gone back to the LNP. However, those who know better knew better as it were. Labor now has a lot of expectations on its shoulders but what I did like was McGowan’s acceptance speech………..it was full of talk of hope and thinking of others – not just the corporate end of town. The listeners/presenters on 6PR – mainly rusted-ons for the LNP – will now believe the end of the world is nigh….
The Toorak Toff predicted that Labor would fall just short because of its failure to bring Steve Smith into parliament as leader.
What a drongo that Toff is!
rossmcg @ #15 Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 10:15 am
The Liberals have just suffered the biggest loss in WA Election history and they think a lurch to the right is a good idea? Good luck with that.
I guess that the Libs do next – lurch to the right or otherwise; will depend on the dynamics of the (much smaller) party room.
Cormann had to say what he did on Insiders today because any other take on the outcome would mean he was majorly guilty of the wipeout.
Great result for Labor and thankfully Colin Barnett didn’t win and nor did Pauline.
toorak toff @ #25 Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 11:44 am
An entertaining way of putting it.
I am calmed by my belief in the opinion polls.
But I must confess to a sense of relief when it is all over. 😀
John Reidy
just back from visiting my mother on a drive that took me past a few election signs for
Nahan (Riverton) and McGrath (South Perth). Two safe seats where the incumbent Liberal will be over 70 at the next election. I daresay there are other “veteran” members about.
Don’t want to sound ageist but the Liberals will need some younger people soon and how they handle that will be interesting to watch as the various factions push to get their men (almost always men with this mob) in winnable seats.
To all the Sandgropers, THANK YOU!
yr welcome
Briefly, Confessions – thank you.
Briefly, an interesting interaction with that candidate in Joondalup – you gave your honest truthful no-spin opinion, which infuriated them, and you were proven right! Some people just cannot handle reality – e.g. Pauline Hanson today saying how well One Nation did.
The Queensland State Election is going to sharpen the focus on the whole LNP-One Nation “turf war” and I think this will benefit Labor. I have a certain schadenfreude at John Howard’s recent “conversion” to the cause of the WA Liberals preferencing the newly-‘sophisticated’ One Nation ahead of their governing partners the Nationals. Just goes to show that his edict in 2001 to put them last Federally was a rush job after the disastrous electoral results of the Liberal-National Coalition in Queensland not doing so universally earlier in the year. You would think that that experience would have taught the Liberals that any “Alliance” with One Nation is the most toxic electoral poison in the wider community (as in, “Ordinary Australians”)! But the Abbott/Dutton boosters in ‘The Australian’ will no doubt say that this result shows that the Liberals should shift right and align themselves more closely with the One Nation view of the world. O may they please succeed in this quest!
Actually looking forward even more to “flip-flop” Howard’s new (post-election) take on the whole preferencing of the “changed and sophisticated” One Nation Party.
So Hanson received under 5% of the vote at the WA state election.
Better put, 95% of West Australians rejected her right wing populist garbage, anti-vax views and rank racism.
Hanson is nothing more than a serial electoral fund rorter. Send her back to prison.
Rossmcg
I would think that the ‘veterans’ would be moderate and less likely to veer to the right, but I don’t know the members and how partisan they are.
I can understand they are anti-labor but they should embrace the fringes on the right.
John R, please read your posts being posting. I think you words out.
(See rule 16 in this: https://forum.joomla.org/viewtopic.php?t=173411
Will, we srsly do need an edit function! My “being” above = before. If other blogs/boards can let a poster edit or delete for some time after, why can’t Crikey manage it? (Yes I know there’s a belief that it’s run by gerbils, whereas most sites are run by webmonkeys, but…)
I was doing Greens HTVs at Mindarie PS (Burns Beach) yesterday. Chatting with a Labor lady (a fellow senior) she said “I don’t know why I am here. This is such a solid Liberal area. I live here and they won’t even talk to me. They think I am weird.”
I must admit the “vibe” seemed to be Liberal. Most of those who only took 1 HTV took only the Lib one. Very many didn’t want any card, they had already decided their vote, so I assumed they were locked in Libs. But apparently not all.
I hope that Labor lady is feeling chuffed today, and that she appreciates why she was there. I and very many others appreciate her effort.
The Libs must have had at least 25 young people doing HTVs over the course of the day, just at that booth. Labor had around 5-6, Greens 3, Aust Christians 3 in the morning only, and the Animal Justice party had 2 all day (they were just doing the LC HTV, as they didn’t have a candidate for this seat). I couldn’t help thinking what a waste of resources by the Libs, surely those volunteers could have been used at other places where they were needed more. The PS is apparently the biggest booth in the seat, but after 11am it was certainly not busy.
Christian Porter and Ian Goodenough put in brief appearances. I wish I had known the result while they were there.
rossco @ #41 Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 4:39 pm
You hit on the Libs strongest booth. https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2017/electorate/BRN/results
Usually over here (Victoria) Labor has the most volunteers at booths, sometimes overwhelmingly so. Except of course at some of the smaller country booths.
Rossco, from your local knowledge, which State Electorates cover Hasties Federal seat?
Bemused,
I am sure others would be better placed than me to advise on Hasties seat.
My point about the excessive number of volunteers was that 5 volunteers at a time could do just as well as 25. Wouldn’t there have been booths, even in other electorates, which could have used more help. I know I travelled well out of my area to go to Mindarie
rossco @ #44 Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 5:03 pm
I got the impression that this time around Labor had plenty of campaign volunteers and booth workers. Given that they also seemed to be well organised, I think there would have been at least some redeployment of resources to where needed. Seems that might include you.
Rossco – Any suggestion the Lib volunteers were being paid?
antonbruckner11 @ #46 Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 5:38 pm
Yes, what is the price they put on their soul?
Hola Bludgers
Just returned from the county where I was incommunicado.
Wonderful news for Labor from out west & had a good laugh at PHON’s results. My congratulations to all progressive voting WA Bludger’s.
Dawesville (31%), Mandurah (31%), Darling Range (22%), Murray-Wellington (12%).
william bowe @ #49 Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 6:15 pm
Thanks William.
If Saturday’s result is repeated Federally, am I correct that eh will be out on his ear?