Galaxy: 51-49 to LNP in Queensland

The ever eagle-eyed Leroy Lynch points out that yesterday’s Courier-Mail buried Queensland state voting intention results from Galaxy in this article. Primary vote numbers are much as they were at both last year’s state election, and in the previous Galaxy state poll in March. Labor is at 37% (37.5% at the election, 39% in the last poll); the Liberal National Party is at 41% (41.3% at the election, 43% at the last poll); and the Greens are on 10% (8.4% at the election, not sure about the last poll) (UPDATE: Airlines in comments relates the Greens were 8% in the last poll). Katter’s Australian Party is at 4%, compared with 1.9% at the election, which the Courier-Mail attributes to its calls for a separate north Queensland state. The implied two-party result is open to interpretation, with Galaxy getting to 51-49 in favour of the Liberal National Party by averaging preference flows from the last three elections. If preferences flowed as they did at last year’s election, the numbers would probably be the other way around.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe