Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

The latest monthly Ipsos poll gives the Coalition its most encouraging result in some time.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a steadier for the Turnbull government, recording the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 after it sagged to 52-48 in the previous poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor is down one to 31%, and the Greens are down one to 14%. Nonetheless, the poll corroborates other recent polling in finding a plunge in support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down seven on approval to 55% and up eight on disapproval to 32%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 33% and down three to 52%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from 64=19 to 61-22. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result suggesting Tony Windsor is a real show in his bid to take New England back from Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. The survey of 518 respondents shows Windsor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 46% for Joyce and 44% for Windsor. When respondents were prompted for how they would vote if the contentious Shenhua Watermark mine on Liverpool Plains was approved, Windsor took a 47% to 42% lead on the primary vote, and his lead after preferences extended to 56-44.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling aggregate from Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50 for the third week in a row, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – Coalition to 42%, Labor to 36% – and the Greens up one to 11%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on same-sex marriage (support up five points to 64% with opposition down four to 26%, and 66% favouring a plebiscite versus only 23% who think the matter should be decided by parliament) and climate change (63% say it’s caused by human activity, up seven since November, and 27% consider it natural fluctuation, down five; 57% think not enough is being done to address it, up four since August).

Other questions look in depth at the leaders, including a finding that 39% favour Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party (down three since December), with Julie Bishop on 12% (down one) and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady). Changes on the equivalent Labor question are slight, but Bill Shorten nonetheless pulls into the lead by gaining two points to 15%, with Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek both steady on 14%, and Chris Bowen up four to 7%. Questions on the attributes of the two leaders are fairly predictable in finding Malcolm Turnbull deteriorating across all measures since September, while Bill Shorten remains steady. Turnbull takes particularly heavy hits on understanding the problems facing Australia (down ten to 53%), being good in a crisis (down seven to 52%), and being visionary (down seven to 44%). Interestingly though, his biggest move is a drop in “aggressive”, from 38% to 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,404 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Channel 10 5 o’clock news with Hugh Riminton, Sandra Sully and Adam Todd from Parliament House, Canberra have been pizzling all over Malcolm for weeks!

  2. [2347
    but what the hell are gay people going to whinge about after it gets up which it will

    I can’t speak for any other gay people, but for myself… Liberals 😛

  3. JD,

    Apology accepted.

    I don’t agree with your second contention. The problem with this debate is that as soon as anyone voices an opinion for preserving traditional marriage, then they are labelled and vilified as homophobes.

    Consequently, the loud voices and the belligerant take over the discussion and the whole matter degenerates to an abusive pot porri of name calling.

    Your response earlier tonight is not untypical of the horrible discussion that will dominate the plebescite if it is allowed to occur.

  4. [Your response earlier tonight is not untypical of the horrible discussion that will dominate the plebescite if it is allowed to occur.]


  5. Greensborough Growler: In inviting JD to “fuck off”, you are not exactly presenting the attitudes of your religion in a very attractive light. Frankly, the Catholic Church is living in the mother of all glass houses when it comes to matters of sexual morality, and until it has done a great deal more to clean up its act than has been evident to date, ordinary people have a perfect right to treat any attempts it might make to lay down moral laws to others as deserving naught but contempt.

  6. pedant,

    So what.

    JD resorted to libelling me as a homophobe.

    He has just apologised for his misunderstanding.

    My reponse is reasonable in my eyes.

    You can cherry pick your outrage to your hearts content.

    I’m not particularly fussed.

  7. GG – Attacking Safe Schools, making repeated references to the “homosexual lobby”, and belittling me is what made me angry, so perhaps you should keep that in mind.

    Having said that, I will apologise for calling you homophobic.

  8. C@t,

    Unfortunately ch10 go a bit early for me, but their political section is quite good. I saw Todd do an excellent story on -ve gearing a few weeks back.

  9. Oh, and malcolm Turnbull brought back the Effects test, not because of ‘The Greens’ prodding but because of the Nationals demands.

  10. Question,
    I only watch it because I am getting ready to do my local paper round and I have to watch something and my son who helps me is over the ABC by then as we have usually been watching it since Question Time! 😀

    I like Hugh though. He exposed the ADFA Rape and Bullying culture.

  11. The latest American political – Ban Pre Shredded Cheese – MAKE AMERICA GRATE AGAIN!

    Well, I thought if others have put up some groaners today, who am I to deprive you all. 🙂


  12. Yes, I like Hugh, and always liked Bongiorno too.

    I also think the Burke speech got a lot of coverage because it echoed what Shorten was saying at the NPC in a more colourful way. The Gallery were probably more impressed than they would like to let on.

  13. Jimmy by calling someone a homophobe you have gone quite a distance particularly against a fairly moderate view but with the a plebiscite there will be comparisons to bestiality and gay people being an abomination against God, all sorts of ugly and you have already used your a homophobe.

  14. [Oh, and malcolm Turnbull brought back the Effects test, not because of ‘The Greens’ prodding but because of the Nationals demands.]

    That’s the only bit of genuine political courage Turncoat has shown since he got the job. I wouldn’t be surprised if the criticism from big business scares him off completely.

  15. So I’m guessing it’s Hilary versus The Helmet.
    Could Trump really win the thing or would the sensible majority win out.
    Would prefer the Bernster but am assuming that wont happen.

  16. why are greens entitled to be de facto left wing party – surely we need a LW party as third or fourth party that is based on coherent principles – not de facto, half articulated perspectives grafted to a green philosophy that is increasingly mainstream – the dangers of an ad hoc approach to non green issues is being demonstrated in recent weeks and in deserved commentary on PB

    ———– ps will someone on crikey site please fix software glitch here – that chides for posting too many when last post was 48 hours ago

  17. [but what the hell are gay people going to whinge about after it gets up which it will, ]

    StrapON, you really are a complete supercilious git aren’t you??

  18. hilary is very risky as front person in election – very. she is ineffective and insecure debater without strong convictions (she purports to have them) – if her own party have disquiet why does anyone think she will prosper in a main election – bernie might actually been best of all available (why wasnt there a good third democract candidate – is this another corrupt or rigged result by party?)

  19. Thought I’d drop by for the first time in a while. The comments here have always been a Labor right echo chamber, but it has deteriorated badly. Fact free ranting and raving about the Greens which just happens to align perfectly with the ALP’s current misguided smear campaign, homophobic religious nutters justifying the hard right’s assault on gay youth, and the deluded notion that the government is in trouble due to the tactical brilliance of human dish rag Bill Shorten.

    What a shame… This used to be quite an interesting place to get some real insight.

  20. Just listened to Shorten’s speech (but not Q&A part yet). Forward looking. Solid content. Well written, structured, and delivered.

    I think I just heard the firing gun go off for the start of the campaign. And Labor pulled the trigger.

    The pressure on Cornered Mal just ratcheted up a few notches.

  21. Patrick Bateman
    [the comments here have always been a Labor right echo chamber]
    That’s not a nice thing to say about Peg’s comments.

  22. If Morrison does manage to come up with some new savings that the ALP find palatable, they should steal it and use it to make some modest adjustments for bracket creep.

    The luxury of already having a plan.

  23. Immacca, what humorless dick you are I bet your a real fun guy, bloody hell you can just tell with some people. No gay friends either by the looks mind you another over exaggeration of mine but Gay people tend to have a great sense of humor so makes sense.

  24. Any PB punters out there interested in a punt on these odds for the Fed LNP leader at the next election, courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au:
    Mal Brough 34:1
    Sophie Mirabella 250:1
    Clive Palmer: 501:1

    Somehow, I thought not…… I’d offer triple the odds for any brave punters.

  25. Snap Victoria.

    Of course, the budget is more than infrastructure investment. If Waffles still plans to screw ordinary people to pay down the deficit or pay for company tax cuts, he will have a hard time.

    And if he is going to come up with an agile and innovative way to reimagine the Commonwealth’s books, that might come in for a bit of scrutiny as well.

  26. TPOF

    peter Martin is rather confident this is the path Turnbull is going down. I cant imagine his own party buying into such type of borrowings. It is not in the Liberal DNA to fund nation building infrstructure. As you say, Turnbull wrecked the NBN

  27. I am seriously thinking we need to change the way we live in Sydney.

    The Climate has tipped!!!.

    I have been suffering through 28-degree nights for yonks, although outside it has got down to a cool 23-24 degrees but, fabric load and all that.

    Jenna Price puts it very well: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-hot-nights-leave-you-feeling-like-youre-battling-a-hangover-20160313-gnhn1c.html

    This morning going onto work I heard Wendy Harmer (Radio 702) talking to the woman who does the weather and asking her to REPEAT the numbers: Yes, it got down to 18C last night in Inner Syd, and 16C if you were lucky enough to live further out. To listen to these women in their delight that temperatures are finally dropping made me feel normal – it is not just me – Sydney has turned into some sort of sweaty tropical concrete jungle.

    That blissful 18C outside explained the delightful almost chilly 24.5C in my bedroom this morning. Sadly, by this pm, it was above 26 again – although sheer bloody luxury compared to the usual 28C.

    Now we are down to 25.5C. Not too bad, but we now have torrential rain. Forget the 10K new roof we had installed, which still leaks. We have had several opinions on said roof, and all say the same thing: No problem, for any normal amount of rain you roof is fine. For rain of biblical proportions, well…

    Rain if biblical proportions now seems to come every week, and while listening to the rain coming in again, torrentially, in our hallway, should we just move to some sort of tropical housing, with lots of airflow to dry then s out when the rain comes?

  28. [ No gay friends either ]


    StrapON, have you ever consider just NOT being a dickhead as an option?? Try it sometime.

    [ and the deluded notion that the government is in trouble due to the tactical brilliance of human dish rag Bill Shorten. ]

    Patrick, objectively he has done pretty well, particularly of late. Not all his doing i’ll admit, the Govt has been a bit of a shambles and created much opportunity, but i think credit needs to be given where its due. And beating up on “lefties” like the Greens is just fun to pass the time, 🙂 they give as good as they get.

  29. [The fact that people need to work with each other and bump into each other was a point never acknowledged in the screeds of reports Labor commissioned about how the NBN would free us from travelling in to work.

    Peter Martin]

    Here’s a fact:

    Martin, otherwise an informed and respect worthy commentator, just didn’t grok the importance of the FTTP version from the start, and has found it hard to back down since.

    You are simply wrong, Mr Martin. We need that infrastructure every bit as much as roads, water, and hospitals. Only questions ever were: when we would do it, and how much we would pay for it.

    The answers now obviously being: too late, and too much.


  30. [ peter Martin is rather confident this is the path Turnbull is going down. I cant imagine his own party buying into such type of borrowings. ]

    I suspect that IF MalPM tries this its not going to have the effect he wants.

    1: Should have done it years ago to fund a proper NBN.

    2: ALP say great idea lets do it……makes it neutral at the election and actually, that process is more believable coming from the ALP.

  31. The NBN is not necessarily about allowing everyone to work from home. Assuming that human face to face interaction is important and that businesses are the place to do that, then the NBN would serve just as well to decouple businesses from geography instead of, or as it might have done for, individuals.

    Centralised geographical locations may serve to bring people together, but are also bottlenecks.

    If you build a network, and use of the network is cheap, you can ping the entire network, regardless of who or what is on it. Centralisation requires tedious effort to make sure you only bring the right bits together so you don’t waste your limited space, and even after all that, the number of things (people, ideas, etc) you can connect together will be limited.

  32. Player One @2328,
    [ Re: same sex marriage …

    I am still of the opinion that ‘marriage’ should be given back to the various churches as a quaint ceremony with no legal standing whatsoever.

    If you want to be recognized as a couple, you have to go through a separate ‘civil union’ ceremony, which recognizes all flavors of couples and has the same legal standing for all. Even if you have been ‘married’ by your church.]

    Interestingly enough that is the way it is done in Turkey, according to Attaturk’s constitution.

    Marriage is a civil ceremony, and if I remember the interesting conversion I had some time ago with Turkish friend, you have the Mosque ceremony, which takes most of the day, and then you duck into the civil registry to sign on the dotted line to make it official – it could be the other way around of course.

    I am sure Turkish Christians also celebrate marriage this way.

  33. It is simple to fix the marriage equality issue. restore the
    Marriage Act to its form before howard bastardised it by adding the words ‘man and woman’ and make it two consenting adults, with the existing exclusions for related people, and let everyone go for whatever they want.

    Tell any religious groups or busybody people who kick up a fuss about it to go get knotted.

  34. The main reason density adds value is because it saves time. It is simply possible to get more done in any given time frame. This breaks down as congestion rises precisely because congestion wastes time.

    A high quality broadband network will tend to ease congestion in all kinds of ways and would in fact add the most value to those loci that are already have the highest density.

    Suggesting that the NBN is in some way not doing to add to the efficiency premiums available in high density loci is much like arguing that telephones, radio, tv or other communication structures, including railways, subways, footpaths bridges, tunnels and roads would not add efficiency in the same places…and is just as specious.

  35. [That’s the only bit of genuine political courage Turncoat has shown since he got the job. I wouldn’t be surprised if the criticism from big business scares him off completely.]

    Courage? TUrnbull (and most of the Libs) were against the Effect’s Test. (passionately?)

    He rolled over to the Nat (again). Burke and Shorten had him bang to rights yesterday.

    He puts the vain in weather vane.

  36. [If he is really bold, Turnbull will change the way the budget is presented, showing the income and expenses related to the ordinary running of government on one page (where the deficit is hopefully shrinking) and the borrowing and spending on major projects as well as the projected payoffs on another (where the borrowing will be hopefully growing).

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/turnbulls-budget-will-be-big-and-bold-and-about-boom-20160315-gnjd2y.html#ixzz435jmhUrb
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook]

    Yes Peter that would be an outstanding reform and go a long way to fixing the Surplus Fetish bullshit brought to us by Howard and Costello. You would also of course bring into the budget the value of Commonwealth assets so that lack of investment in maintenance/renewal showed up as a cost and the loss from privatisations that simply transfer wealth from the Commonwealth to the spivs would be fully accounted for.

    These are real reforms, and that’s why they’ll never happen under this Prime Miniature. The glaring fallacy in your first proposition explains why.

    [It will take some explaining. But Turnbull, more than any prime minister since Hawke, is capable of explaining good ideas and taking the Australian public with him.]

    Here’s a tip Pete – don’t write when you’re drunk. Name just one good idea Turnbull has explained and taken the public with him Peter. Any guesses?
    Water Conservation?
    Climate Change?
    Same sex marriage?
    Tax reform?

    Seriously where does the delusion that the prattlings of this backsliding buffoon represents the summa cum laude of political persuasion come from?

    Kool Aid! Kool Aid for everyone! Get it before it’s all gone!

  37. C@tmomma@2336

    Oh, and btw, I gave up Cryptic Crosswords because they became boringly predictable once I figured out the tricks to the game. When I was 12.

    Try DA in the Herald or the Age on Friday, or do five Times cryptics in a row in one week of the Australian newspaper. Boringly predictable they ain’t.

    If you can get all those out in fifteen minutes or less each, I dips me lid.

  38. This line of argument –

    [{Provided} that Churches and other organisations are not compelled to conduct marriage ceremonies or “Civil Unions”]


    [and their attempts to insist that opponents to these unions must celebrate them]

    just begs for any legal part of the registration of ‘marriage/union’ to be removed from religious organisations.

    It was put up time and time again in the UK and every time the proponents of it, when challenged, were not able to show how religious celebrants would be ‘forced’ to perform these ceremonies.

    It’s a crap argument.

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