Essential Research: 50-50

The Essential Research rolling aggregate records an unusually sharp move away from the Coalition, and finds strong support for Senate reform legislation.

The normally placid Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a rare two-point shift on two-party preferred this week, which eliminates a settled 52-48 lead for the Coalition over previous weeks. Particularly remarkable is a three point increase in the Labor primary vote, from 35% to 38%, although the Coalition is down only one to 43%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Also featured is a very detailed question on Senate reform, in which the legislation was explained to respondents in meticulous detail, producing a result of 53% approval and 16% disapproval. A question on election timing finds 56% wanting the election held later this year versus 23% who want it called early, although the distinction is an increasingly fine one. Also featured: most important election issues (health topping the list, followed by economic and cost-of-living concerns), best party to handle them (Labor for industrial relations and environment, Coalition for national security and the economy, although Labor has a slight lead on housing affordability) and perceptions of the parties as right or left wing (indicating Labor is seen as more centrist than the Coalition, although there is little sense that this has changed in recent years). This week’s poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1017, with the voting intention numbers also including the survey results from the previous week’s poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,038 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. [ Shorten has more than earned the right to lead Labor to the next election, ]

    Absolutely. He took on what is normally a thankless, futile, and career ending task of being a 1st term LOTO. And look at where he is now? 🙂

    [ which is probably now Labor’s to lose. ]

    Possibly. Unseating a 1st term Govt thats coming off a big win in seat terms is still a big ask. Shorten is looking like the bloke to do it though if anyone can.

    [ Hard to see what the Coalition can do now to save themselves from themselves at this point, ]

    It will come down to rat cunning and lies for them i think. Backed, maybe by something that appears to be policy.

  2. William Bowe@797

    Pretty much every country in Europe has voluntary voting, and I can’t say I’ve ever noticed Angela Merkel or David Cameron doing much in the way of “pandering to right-wing extremists”.

    Don’t speak too soon….

  3. William Bowe @797:

    [Pretty much every country in Europe has voluntary voting, and I can’t say I’ve ever noticed Angela Merkel or David Cameron doing much in the way of “pandering to right-wing extremists”.

    Then, with respect, you haven’t been paying much attention to Cameron in particular. German voter participation is higher than most voluntary-voting jurisdictions (perhaps due to their past experience with an apathetic electorate), but Cameron’s committed many egregious panders to prevent a right-wing spoiler effect in FPTP. One of the worst of these was this:

    [“For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens ‘as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone’.”]

    That was far from his only right-wing pander, but it was one of the worst.

  4. ‘I can’t say I’ve ever noticed Angela Merkel or David Cameron doing much in the way of “pandering to right-wing extremists”’

    Cameron wouldn’t need to, he is one himself.

  5. lizzie@793

    [ In a very poor community, entering the Catholic Church would have been one method of guaranteeing a better education, wouldn’t it? ]

    I think that that has been the case all over the world for hundreds of years.

  6. we call an election, have a few weeks of an election campaign, most everyone goes and votes, we count ’em and the new gov’t starts work nearly right away.

    i will have that over the USA hoopla for three of the four year prez term just to get people to a polling station.

  7. don

    I framed it as a question because I was gently defending Patrick Dodson and there seems to be a certain sensitivity about catholic priests atm.

  8. I can’t see the coalitions defence push working.
    defence here isn’t seen as an area of innovation like it may be in the USA.
    Also after years of going on about the existential threat of a ‘death cult’; we will spend billions on submarines.

  9. [Nine News Australia
    Nine News Australia – Verified account ‏@9NewsAUS

    Former Prime Minister, John Howard, has raised the prospect of the government revisiting a rise in the GST. #9News ]

  10. [Say a Labor voter picks a HTV card from a volunteer, all they have to do is number 1 to 6 on the HTV. The 1 to 6 does exactly what it says on the card, rather than the old “vote 1 next to Labor” where the preference deals are unheard of to all but poll bludgers and the like.]

    An excellent point another key plank in trying to disenfranchise disillusioned voters is that the troublesome, published party list didn’t require a HTV.

    There will be no help for microparty voters at the booth! Great chance they’ll just vote one and not count at all, which is the point after all.

  11. Lizzie@773

    [Peg

    Liberal Democrats senator David Leyonhjelm will introduce a proposal to abolish compulsory voting

    I strongly object. Let’s hope no one supports him.]

    I bang on a lot about the time I spend in Chile, but they know a thing or too about how fragile democracy is. I have talked to friends and colleagues there about compulsory voting, and they and I agree that it is essential for any civil society who wants to remain democratic. BTW, voting is compulsory in Chile.

    I have Greens friend who argue the opposite, one saying to me “But if voting is not compulsory, then elections get decided on the important things”.

    I cannot agree with this. The poorer people are, or the sicker, or the more disadvantages they are, the more they will struggle to get to a polling booth. They will be the ones disenfranchised under non-compulsory voting. The wealthy, the religious nut jobs (no doubt the large Fundamentalist church near me would send their many buses to dragoon everyone in the area to vote for Family First) and the bigots will turn out in droves.

    We already know this happens from the US. In particular, the 2000 election, which was won by George W Bush,has been a disaster for peace throughout the world, particularly for the many residents of the Middle East.

    Bush’s slim, and even arguable victory was made easier for Bush by the studied ennui of progressive voters, who stayed away in droves. Just a few thousand more turning up to vote for Gore, while holding their upper-middle class noses in disgust at the disappointment of the Clinton era, would have changed World history, and many people in the Middle East who are now either dead or homeless would still be alive.

    I do not care if you do not want to vote! Just spoil your ballot paper. Which Federal election was it where Norman Gunston got a lot of votes (the Joh for PM one)?

    But if you cannot be bothered to make the trip to the local polling booth, then you put at risk democracy, which is a recent and still fragile development.

    And I will fight tooth and nail against you threatening the democracy I live in by your laziness.

  12. William Bowe @ 797,

    … I can’t say I’ve ever noticed Angela Merkel or David Cameron doing much in the way of “pandering to right-wing extremists”.

    You had your head in the clouds for ‘Sir’ Lynton Crosby’s xenophobic campaign for David Cameron which was to neutralise UKIP then? 🙂

  13. Nine News Australia
    Nine News Australia – Verified account ‏@9NewsAUS

    Former Prime Minister, John Howard, has raised the prospect of the government revisiting a rise in the GST. #9News

    Here we go again.

    Remind me which PM it was who promised, hand on heart, that the GST would never go above 10%? 😉

  14. 812

    The micro party voters will still have the oral instructions from the polling officials who hand them their ballot papers and the written instructions on the ballot paper to tell them to number 1-6.

    Most micro party voters will thus number 1-6 but they will have to make the choice for themselves or look up their micro party`s preference advice.

  15. [Not apparently in the view of Stephen Conroy and Sam Dastyari]

    The senate would be substantially improved by the absence of Dastyari – if he was 1/10th as good as he thinks he is he’d be great – he is not.

  16. At the cut throat murder trial of the kinds of coppers 2GB commentators and folk would describe as knockabout, one accused’s daughter (McNamara) gives character evidence:

    [“He’s a good man, any time I needed anything, he’d be the first there. He coached my soccer team. We hung out and we went fishing … we had plans,” she said in between sobs.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mcnamara-rogerson-shot-him-he-said-he-would-kill-you-girls-20160302-gn8d5d.html#ixzz41j578PGS
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  17. I guess then that Britain’s Conservatives should be taking lessons in moderation from our own Liberal Party, which has had its rough edges smoothed off by the civilising influence of compulsory voting.

  18. [The micro party voters will still have the oral instructions from the polling officials who hand them their ballot papers and the written instructions on the ballot paper to tell them to number 1-6.

    Most micro party voters will thus number 1-6 but they will have to make the choice for themselves or look up their micro party`s preference advice.
    ]

    Ridiculous – they are changing a system they said was broken and it was broken because they didn’t look up the parties published and readily available list and they were not sufficiently competent to realise they were voting for parties they didn’t intend too, the whole basis for the change, but yet you are quite happy to make it HARDER to vote as they really want.

    Breathtaking antidemocratic hypocrisy

  19. The reason why Medibank was sold….

    CommSec ‏@CommSec 3m3 minutes ago

    Medibank Private $MPL rose 7.75% after receiving federal government approval to increase premiums ~5.64% next month #ausbiz

    $$$$$

  20. I agree with William. The Australian government is one of the most extreme right-wing governments in the world, even with compulsory voting.

  21. The Federal Police investigating Abbott over leaks – so funny! You can be sure Tone’s Fed mates won’t find anything on him. Malcolm, on the other hand..

  22. [824
    Airlines
    Louise Pratt announced that she won’t be contesting the Senate vacancy against Dodson
    ]

    My thinking is that Pratt has got a lock on the number one Senate spot for the next election (assuming it’s not a DD).

  23. Rod Hagen

    My impression is that Abbott and his RWNJ are stultifying Turnbull all the time because Abbott wants the leadership again.

    Lord alone knows what that group could come up with never mind democracy.

  24. We’ve a long way to go yet.

    [A Catholic school has cancelled a speaking visit from an award-winning gay author of young adult books because his new book – which includes a gay character – has been deemed “not appropriate”.

    Will Kostakis, 26, came out as gay on his blog last week after an ex-boyfriend of his was diagnosed with cancer.

    Just days later he received a cancellation email from a teacher at De La Salle College in Revesby Heights, in Sydney, where he had done a successful speaking visit last year. ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/books/catholic-school-tells-gay-author-will-kostakis-his-speaking-visit-no-longer-appropriate-20160302-gn8ju1.html

  25. Sohar @830:

    [I agree with William. The Australian government is one of the most extreme right-wing governments in the world, even with compulsory voting.]

    Will you revise your opinion if Democratic apathy results in Mein Trumpf winning the US Presidency?

    The fact is that the current Liberal radical-reactionarism is a relatively new phenomenon – the Liberals were long dominated by the dries, that’s no-one’s news, but they were always careful to avoid being seen as the greater of two evils.

    On the larger point about voting, it’s simply indicative of Leyonhjelm’s wretched mindset: To nutters like him, there’s no such thing as “society”, an aggregate body greater than the sum of its parts. As such, no-one owes any duties to society whatsoever.

    It’s rather appealing, in a primary-school way.

  26. [827
    WWP
    Breathtaking antidemocratic hypocrisy
    ]

    I agree. There is no meaningful, principled difference between numbering a minimum of 6 or a minimum of 1. If we’re going to operate from the point of view that voters have a democratic right to number as many or as few boxes as possible, then constraining that by having a set number of boxes that must be filled is illogical and contradictory.

    The only real reason I can see for introducing OPV into Senate-voting with a minimum number of boxes to be numbered is to advantage the Greens, so that they can mop up as many preferences from the majors as possible.

    Further, we can see through Nicholas’s post at 783 that introducing OPV into the Senate is going to lead to calls to introduce it into the House, where it truly will function like FPTP.

  27. MTBW

    [My impression is that Abbott and his RWNJ are stultifying Turnbull all the time because Abbott wants the leadership again.]

    You’re a bit late to the news. The journos are already comparing Abbott’s methods to Rudd’s.

  28. MTBW

    [ My impression is that Abbott and his RWNJ are stultifying Turnbull all the time because Abbott wants the leadership again.

    Lord alone knows what that group could come up with never mind democracy. ]

    Abbott’s strategy is to drag the LNP vote down so low that they become the underdog at the next election, and therefore the party will be forced to reconsider a known election winner as leader (i.e. Abbott) rather than the comprehensive loser that Mal the Maleficent has turned out to be.

    Good luck with that one Peta!

  29. Number 3 for Louise Pratt (probably #6 or #7 in a DD)? Geez, that’s low for a cleanskin former Senator looking to re-enter Parliament, especially with Joe “Good riddance!” Bullock resigning. Who’d she piss off in the factional squabbles?

  30. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/breathtaking-breach-of-basic-responsibility-from-an-expm-20160302-gn8rns.html

    [The remark from Abbott that will really rile the defence force to which he gave so much of his attention was his branding the Collins Class submarine “a fragile capability at the best of times”.

    For all the heartburn it’s given successive chiefs of navy, the Collins these days is a good boat. The navy and its squadron of submariners are frankly sick of the “dud subs” tag – which Abbott has now exploited for base politics.

    A few weeks ago, five of the six Collins Class boats were fit to go to sea – a very impressive figure. They have crews of 60 submariners each, many of whom are serving at sea right now in these so-called “fragile capabilities”.]

  31. [Former Prime Minister, John Howard, has raised the prospect of the government revisiting a rise in the GST. #9News]

    Is Shorten a hypnotist or something?

    Look into my eyes John. SLEEP!
    Get out there saying the Libs will raise the GST after the election John.
    When you wake up John, you will forget that I have hypnotized you, but whenever someone asks you about the Liberal party you will say that they will increase the GST after the election…

  32. Hi Rod Hagen

    How have you been?

    Of course, Kevin Andrews was the Defence Minister, and no doubt had some copies of the defence white paper in his back pocket. 😀

  33. Player One

    [Abbott’s strategy is to drag the LNP vote down so low that they become the underdog at the next election, and therefore the party will be forced to reconsider a known election winner as leader (i.e. Abbott) rather than the comprehensive loser that Mal the Maleficent has turned out to be.

    Good luck with that one Peta!]

    Totally agree he is so self absorbed and a very nasty piece of work.

  34. [that introducing OPV into the Senate is going to lead to calls to introduce it into the House, where it truly will function like FPTP.]

    Not necessarily – however the thought of it to the ALP would make the recent shrill and hysterical carrying on of Wong and Conroy over senate voting reform seem quite demure. No longer would Labor be able to rely on a steady flow of Greens preferences – the Greens having the power to provide or withhold as the case may be. Labor being much dependent on preferences from the Left than the Libs from the right.

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