Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A budget-eve poll finds the Coalition gaining slightly on voting intention, and Tony Abbott recovering the lead as preferred prime minister.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average looks like the only poll we’ll be getting this week, as its rivals hold their fire ahead of tonight’s budget. The poll has ticked a point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, bringing Labor’s lead down to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady), 11% for the Greens (up one) and 1% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured are monthly leadership ratings, which find Tony Abbott continuing to improve – he’s up three on approval to 36%, and down four on disapproval to 54%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are stable, with approval and disapproval both down a point to 32% and 41%, which on recent form would be a relief for him. However, Abbott now leads as preferred prime minister, Shorten’s 35-32 a lead of month ago having reversed.

As Joe Hockey prepares to bring down his second budget, the poll shows that his ratings too are slightly less bad than they were, with approval on 30% and disapproval on 48%, respectively up three and down three compared with the last time the question was asked in March. He is now clearly ahead of Chris Bowen on trust to handle the economy, his 26-25 lead opening to 30-22, with “don’t know” still running extremely high. The poll also finds support for the government’s tighter assets test on pensions – 56% in favour, with 30% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,175 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Ipsos poll not far away assuming they do their political poll at same time as commercial ones.

    @IpsosAustralia: Ipsos Australia’s ‘Most Influential Brands’ 2015 Study has now been released. Who topped the list? http://t.co/l34KztA440

  2. I hate this government with a passion but I must admit if this ‘Stronger Communities’ $150,000 for MPs to award to projects in their electorate thing is true, I LOVE that idea.

    Every MP was chosen by their community and the fact that getting 50% of the seats gives you 100% of the power always bothered me. This is one step away from that system of governance and toward self-determination for local communities of all political stripes, and I strongly welcome it. Incredibly forward-thinking and out of character for the Abbott team.

  3. Although good luck getting that Stronger Communities policy through the Senate without giving them something similar.

  4. I don’t know that they do, Guytaur, but there will nonetheless be an Ipsos poll at the usual time this week. I dare say ReachTEL will be in on the post-budget action as well, which by my count makes five polls over the next cycle. Maybe even six if the News Ltd tabloids come up with something, be it one last Galaxy poll or some new arrangement.

  5. PG @ 7

    $150K to local communities is just pork barreling and frankly an insult to rural and regional areas.

    This government ever so on the drum about careful spending and not wanting waste has shot themselves in the foot with this announcement.

    I suggest internal polling for certain electorates held by the LNP must be very dire indeed.

  6. SGH

    [ suggest internal polling for certain electorates held by the LNP must be very dire indeed.]

    They need to shore up support in Qld and WA

  7. SGH
    [$150K to local communities is just pork barreling and frankly an insult to rural and regional areas.]
    It is an insult to everyone. If the grant is properly and impatially distributed it will cost more than $150K per electorate just to assess all the applications and administer the funds.

    If that doesn’t happen then it really will end up a $150K barrel of pork to be distributed by the local MHR to any group he wants to benefit from his personal largesse. Either way the taxpayer loses.

  8. CTaR1
    Yes. Qld is going to be a slaughter. WA not far behind. The latter is apparently about to have a housing melt down. Plus UWA has just knocked back Bjorn and $4 million.

  9. @ Steven Grant Haby 12
    I’m sure the intention is pork barreling, but the unintended side effect could be excellent. The principle of allowing every MP a small measure of local governance is a fascinating new way to take our political system and an excellent way for individual MPs who, let’s remember, each have their own mandate, to serve their community and do something useful even if they are otherwise made irrelevant by the arithmetic of parliament.

    Granting all parties responsibilities proportional to their seats in parliament is something I can absolutely get behind, even if it is just a happy accident.

  10. The ABC trumpeting their financial commentators for the Budget … Chris Richardson and Ticky Fullerton mentioned.

    Another FMD.

  11. I can’t help feeling a shorten-bowen team isn’t labor’s A-division. Plibersek-Wong would be formidable as would Plibersek-Albo or Albo-Plibersek, Plibersek-Leigh (although my wife finds him creepy/slimy – but not so much as Bowen), Plibersek-Bourke, or even Shorten-Plibersek or Shorten-Albo. They don’t have the depth of talent they did a while back- the loss of Combet and Tanner, (and ultimate waste of Gillard’s PM-ship) makes me weep for what could have been. I think of shorten gets to PM he’ll be quite decent, but he’s labor’s Achilles heel at present and abbott and the murdoch media will know how to exploit that – I can already see the ‘You can’t trust Bill’ with two L-plates at the end.

  12. [Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, May 12, 2015 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    Hmmm. Essential… It’s the narrowing…
    ]

    Boerwar ….. its ALL due to the NUMPTY STAY AT HOME MUMS that Colin Eskrow warned us about earlier :

    Colin Eskrow

    Posted Tuesday, May 12, 2015 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    This budget will be the beginning of the real turn around for Tony.
    His play it safe routine in the last few months has worked to tighten the polls and the tax cuts for businesses will help the narrative that the Coalition is good for the economy.
    The cuts to mothers will blow over and most stay at home mums are numpties that can’t think for themselves anyway.
    I expect the Coalition to be level with the ALP by July.

  13. [Every MP was chosen by their community and the fact that getting 50% of the seats gives you 100% of the power always bothered me. This is one step away from that system of governance and toward self-determination for local communities of all political stripes, and I strongly welcome it. Incredibly forward-thinking and out of character for the Abbott team.]

    I’l bet the $ flow first to LNP marginals, with ALP MPs having to jump through many hoops for $ to flow. LNP can say their priority is regional Australia to ensure they get the cash splash first.

    I don’t agree that this funding should be for the MPs to give out. Any funding should be through transparent processes independent of the government of the day – i.e. no political influence of granting of taxpayers $$.

  14. [16
    PhoenixGreen

    I’m sure the intention is pork barreling, but the unintended side effect could be excellent. The principle of allowing every MP a small measure of local governance is a fascinating new way to take our political system and an excellent way for individual MPs who, let’s remember, each have their own mandate, to serve their community and do something useful even if they are otherwise made irrelevant by the arithmetic of parliament.]

    It’s the PNG model of unified economic and political development…the MP’s dish out the case, the recipients repay with votes…

  15. PG

    I also like the idea of local members be they Labor, Lib or whatever having some money to spend on projects in their electorate. If it works well, the amount should be increased.

    It’s technically not pork barreling as it’s not targeting marginals or favoring sitting Lib members only. Labor MPs in marginals will also get to show some largesse.

  16. I see the $150k as just a means for all MPs to build their profile and personal vote within their electorates.

    Of course if this is effective and none of them lose their seats the Lib’s stay in power.

  17. PG

    Numpty Mums will enable Hockey and Abbott to continue adding to our debt disaster at the rate of $2,000,000,000 a week?

    Where is Alice’s rabbit hole? I need out.

  18. I think that the $150,000 is excellent.

    As long as there is a Smartphone image of the Whiteboard doodles to cover all the probity issues.

  19. Comedy hour in the Reps.

    [Labor is now asking the prime minister why the government is ripping $6,000 a year from the typical family budget?

    Abbott responds with a rather withering glare that looks tougher than Bob Carr’s steel-cut oats.

    This is the opposition’s problem. They have not moved on. They are still fighting the battle of last year’s budget. They are incapable of understanding that we are building, we are building on the successes of last year to give tonight a budget for confidence, a budget for middle Australia, and above all else, Madam Speaker, a budget for fairness.
    ]

  20. I take some heart that Abbott’s polling improves when he keeps a lower profile (& he’s still trailing after all the ANZAC day hoo ha – I can’t see him getting much higher). He can’t do that during and election campaign.

    Shorten just needs to be credible (& this is where I have my doubts) – stop trying to do the soundbites/slogans and carping, and start acting like the government in waiting. there needs to be more “We will work with the government to….” statements that show vision for a fairer Australia. I also think statements could be dropped to the effect “Tony Abbott has a hard job, and he’s out of his depth/not up to it…” and “Tony Abbott prefers a fight and Mr Hockey prefers to bluster. They don’t like to actually sit down, think it through and work out a solution. We don’t want to fight or bluster and are prepared to sit down with them, help them to think this through, and work this out in a way that is fair for all Australians”. etc.

  21. [@JakeSturmer: Major El Niño declared by @BOM_au. Drought hit farmers have “written off production” for this year. #Elnino #climate http://t.co/4104iE3bB8%5D

    To slightly mangle a metaphor, this will be rain on Abbott’s and Hockey’s parades.

    Only yesterday Abbott was in Queensland spruiking the boundless optimism that Qld cattle farmers – and hence all Australians – should feel for the future. There’d never been a better year etc. etc. More to come etc. etc. “Job, prosperity and opportunity” and so on…

    Oh dear.

  22. LOL @ the idea that Abbott’s hapless band of windbags and incompetents have a ‘cunning plan’.

    If he wins again, it’ll be because the ALP couldn’t get their shit together.

  23. @briefly 22
    Yeah, I think the $150k thing would have to come with some sort of strict oversight or ideally a federal ICAC, because decentralising control over public funds like that could certainly lead to some dodgy deals. But the idea itself is still very sound.

    @Sustainable Future
    It would go against the whole idea if any MP had to jump through more hoops to get it than any other. Currently only Government MPs can lobby for this sort of money through the party room, whereas mandating a flat equal split between all MPs means opposition and crossbench members can bypass the political mantra of the Government and focus on their own sorts of projects.

    And all government spending is political. You think tonight’s budget won’t be political? I agree there should be strong independent oversight for this program, now would be the time for a national ICAC, but so long as the funding is spent on genuine community projects and not used to establish the Bob Katter Family’s Department of Rock Painting, the spending would be no more or less political than that of any government.

  24. Having lost the fight over the last budget because it was unfair, it looks like the Coalition intend to win this coming fight by being fair. Surprised? After redefining fair to suit themselves that is. No surprise there.

  25. [La Niña conditions in Australia mean a higher risk of flooding, lower daytime temperatures and more tropical cyclones. For example, the successive La Niña events spanning 2010–12 were associated with record rainfall over much of Australia and some of the biggest floods in living memory.

    In contrast, El Niño conditions mean a greater risk of drought for northern and eastern Australia (see figure below), higher temperatures and more heatwaves, clearer nights and a longer frost season and fewer tropical cyclones. For example, from 1996 to 2010 the Millennium Drought was exacerbated by two separate El Niño events.]
    http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/heads-up-here-comes-el-nio-1

    Eek! Also remember that AGW also exacerbate el nino conditions.

  26. Bushfire Bill

    Barnyard ,yet again , in QT banged on about how much cattle prices etc had gone up under the LNP as it was an LNP “success” . A bit of El Nino induced mass destocking of properties will do wonders for the price.

  27. PG: Your admiration for the “$150K thing” misunderstands the role of the MPs we elect to the CWth Parliament. Federal MPs should concern themselves with Federal issues (i.e. those concerning Australia as a nation).

    Having our local MPs deciding which municipal cause could best do with $150K mistakes the MPs role for that of the local councillor. And we have enough trouble trying to curb that lot’s bent practices.

  28. [34
    PhoenixGreen

    Yeah, I think the $150k thing would have to come with some sort of strict oversight or ideally a federal ICAC, because decentralising control over public funds like that could certainly lead to some dodgy deals. But the idea itself is still very sound.]

    It can’t be both dodgy and sound at the same time.

    Giving cash to MP’s to play with is just using taxpayer $ to buy votes. It is rorts-ville.

  29. [36
    confessions

    In contrast, El Niño conditions mean a greater risk of drought for northern and eastern Australia (see figure below), higher temperatures and more heatwaves, clearer nights and a longer frost season and fewer tropical cyclones. For example, from 1996 to 2010 the Millennium Drought was exacerbated by two separate El Niño events.]

    Then again, if El Nino conditions develop, maybe the drought in California will break….

  30. briefly

    [iving cash to MP’s to play with is just using taxpayer $ to buy votes.]

    It’s just yet another allowance.

  31. briefly

    [Then again, if El Nino conditions develop, maybe the drought in California will break….]

    Or Peru will be washed away.

  32. confessions

    The Californians will be pleased if it is a strong el Niño . They are suffering the worst drought in decades if not centuries with a strong el Niño they usually get above average rain.

  33. The three interesting things about El Nino predictions in the past couple of years have been:

    (1) Statistically, we are overdue a ripper.

    (2) In recent years early predictions have been followed by downward revisions and eventual cancellations.

    (3) Not all El Ninos have the same weather impacts on a regional basis. In other words we might get an ripper El Nino and the Queensland drought might still break. Not likely, but possible.

    All that said, it always rains more under Labor.

  34. briefly

    It might even be that the El Nino/La Nina predictions might be based on models now past their use-by date as a result of changes already wrought by AGW.

    We don’t really know how AGW is going to disrupt regional or global climate systems. You would think that all that extra energy is not going to just result in more of the same, only hotter.

    The really interesting point about the Californian drought is that it seems to be being caused by longer and, at times, almost static loops of the Jetstream – one of which seems to spend a lot of time parked more or less through the middle of the continental US states.

    Californians are getting drought. The folk on the other side of the stalled Jetstream loops are getting record snowfalls and cold temperatures and the like.

  35. further to my post above:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/pm-praises-hockey-ahead-of-second-budget/story-fn3dxiwe-1227351841574

    abbott wants ‘a fight’ over the budget.

    shorten should say “Mr Abbott thinks being PM is all about fighting. He’s got to realise it is about governing. He need to govern himself and deal with his anger management issues before he can govern the country. He needs to stop looking for fights and start looking for a fair future for all Australians. If he can’t do that, the liberal party room really needs to again consider who to replace him with”.

    and also:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/budget-2015/political-survival-of-joe-hockey-and-tony-abbott-rests-on-budget-2015/story-fntfa2d0-1227351704068

    I WONDER how Shamaham and the Oz will report the make or break budget? Who’ll give shorter odds than 500:1 on them slamming it?
    who’ll take a better than even money they praise it as a political and financial masterstroke?

  36. [45
    Boerwar

    briefly

    It might even be that the El Nino/La Nina predictions might be based on models now past their use-by date as a result of changes already wrought by AGW.]

    You’re right. We should expect the unexpected, Boer. If the Pacific doesn’t release heat during El Nino events, what happens? Does the whole basin start to heat? Does more heat get driven west?

    Here’s an absorbing depiction of the current wind patterns in the Pacific. The westerly trades have broken down…

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-207.68,-1.74,414

  37. For those interested in streaming, Computer Choice for May/June has a feature on streaming, including a table comparing all of the streaming options under various criteria. I am a subscriber and I don’t know if it will be available on line for non-subscribers. Otherwise you might be able to get a copy from your library.

    One observation, I can’t see how they can all survive.

    For me, I will be keeping my Foxtel going. I am not all that interested in movies and I am not fussed about seeing the dramas available on streaming when I can see more than I really want or have time for on Foxtel.

    The things I really like about Foxtel are not going to be available through streaming. There are in order.

    Sport
    All AFL games live, all Super Rugby games live, all Australian cricket games overseas live ( West Indies and Ashes series coming up), French and USA tennis opens live (maybe Wimbledon too) and tennis Masters tournaments live. There is also a great range of other sports of lesser interest to me but nonetheless available.

    Foxtel also has the best sports panel programs including On the Couch (AFL), AFL 360, AFL Teams and the Back Page ( a light hearted look at all sports)

    News
    Sky News has the most comprehensive and responsive news reporting. I don’t worry about any of their panel discussions but I appreciate the actual news. I watch mostly in the morning (WA) to catch up with what has happened overnight. I enjoy the ABC (US) and CBS segments as well. If I don’t want to watch any particular item eg an Abbott news conference I just press the red button and I have a choice of 8 multi-view channels; I frequently watch the UK channel.
    I addition to the main Sky News, there also the business channel, the weather channel, Fox News, CNN, BBC World as well as ABC24 if I want.

    Entertainment
    A great choice of drama and comedy, old and new, including many of the programs available via streaming.

    Documentaries
    Again a great choice, especially History, National Geographic and Animal Planet.

    Kids Channel

    When the grandkids come to stay, this is what they go for.

    Oh, I also have a smart TV where I can watch Iview and SBS on demand. You wouldn’t believe how many movies SBS have available as well as all their other programs.

    Even although I am retired I don’t have enough hours in the day to watch all the programs I would like to see. There is no way I am going to pay extra for streaming. I have been given a gift card for 2 months free Netflix but I just can’t be bothered signing up.

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