Queensland election endgame

An account of the electoral and constitutional situation in Queensland, most of it cribbed from Professor Graeme Orr.

I ceased updating my Queensland election count thread on Saturday, partly due to distractions from Canberra, but mostly because incoming votes had reduced to a trickle. With the dealine for receipt of postal votes passed at 6pm this evening, we can expect the final tallies and preference counts to be conducted over the next two or at most three days. No late count surprises transpired, so it is beyond doubt that 44 seats will be declared for Labor, 42 for the Liberal National Party, two for Katter’s Australian Party and one independent, Nicklin MP Peter Wellington, who has thrown his lot in with Labor while the Katter members continue to haggle for terms. To summarise the last four seats I had left on my watch list:

Ferny Grove. There have been 193 new votes added here since Saturday, and the Labor lead of 414 is now at 408.

Mount Ommaney. Another 109 votes added, and the LNP lead is up from 170 to 187.

Whitsunday. A further 249 votes have been counted. Here there is a complication, explained thus by Antony Green: “The votes have been counted but they haven’t been isolated by count centre and so haven’t been entered into the computer system. I’ve had a discussion with the ECQ who are seeing what they can do, but it may be that the count in Whitsunday won’t include all the votes until the actual distribution of preferences is reported this evening or tomorrow. There are no votes missing and everything adds up except the website.”. It matters little – my projection had the LNP lead at 351 on Saturday, and 352 now.

Lockyer. Ian Rickuss never looked comfortable in his tussle with Pauline Hanson, but his lead is now at 194, compared with 183 on Saturday.

Today I wrote an account for Crikey concerning the constitutional situation given the apparent conviction of the Liberal National Party that it can remain in power until any uncertainty surrounding Ferny Grove is resolved. By the time of publication, this had been overtaken somewhat by two events. The first was Campbell Newman’s visit to the Governor to tender his resignation, “pending the appointment of a new Premier” – so not actually a resignation at all then, as far as I can see (UPDATE: J-D in comments reasonably argues in comments that this is overreach, but I remain curious about the timing). Ordinarily when a Premier tenders their resignation, they concurrently advise the Governor to call upon somebody else to form a government. I am left to surmise that the true purpose of the visit was to get in before Annastacia Palaszczuk with legal advice he had sought yesterday, which in the words of The Australian included “a plan for the Queensland Governor to delay commissioning a new government until after a possible by-election in a Brisbane seat that could be months away”.

The second of today’s two events was an announcement by the Governor, Paul de Jersey, which suggested Newman’s visit might not have gone entirely according to plan. Taking to Twitter, de Jersey announced he would “commission new Premier following #qldvotes polls declaration”.Since there is no question that Ferny Grove will be declared for Labor, that doesn’t leave much room for doubt that he will commission Palaszczuk. Certainly the result in Ferny Grove will not be undeclared by virtue of being referred to the Court of Disputed Returns, which will require a substantial amount of time to consider the various legal arguments. This will involve establishing that Palmer United candidate Mark Taverner was indeed disqualified by virtue of bankruptcy; that precedents at federal elections finding against nullification of elections on the basis of candidate disqualification do not apply under optional preferential voting, since those who cast a one-only vote for Taverner were deprived of a valid vote; and that the number of such votes was potentially great enough to affect the result, which would require further scrutiny of ballot papers. There would then follow an automatic right of appeal.

To push the envelope for the sake of argument, the Governor might accept that, for the sake of continuity pending a final resolution, he should install Lawrence Springborg in some manner of ongoing caretaker capacity. However, this would require holding off summoning a parliament in which Mark Furner would be entitled to sit until the Court of Disputed Returns ruled otherwise. To put it mildly, keeping the parliament in suspension for the deliberate purpose of maintaining in office a Premier who lacks its confidence does not seem in accordance with responsible government. If the LNP believes it will attain Ferny Grove in due course, there doesn’t seem any reason why it shouldn’t sit it out in opposition until that occurs – other than the purely political consideration that it would be less likely to win the by-election from opposition, which is no concern of the Governor’s. Furthermore, Graeme Orr observes that the caretaker conventions under which Springborg would presumably be obliged to govern are expressly designed from the period between the dissolution of parliament and the declaration of the result.

If a new election is indeed required for Ferny Grove, which is far from being the foregone conclusion that the LNP and friendly elements of the media are suggesting, the ECQ says the earliest possible date is April 11. However, that is surely based on untestable assumptions as to how long the legal process will take unfold. A notable wrinkle in the situation is the role of the Chief Justice, Tim Carmody, an enormously contentious Newman government appointment to replace Paul de Jersey on his appointment as Governor. As Fairfax’s Amy Remeikis describes it, “the Chief Justice may elect to be the single judge, or appoint another Supreme Court judge to act in his place”. However, Graeme Orr (who you might well think I should just pass this post over to) refuted this notion in an interview on 4BC today, saying there was “a roster of judges that are picked at random in advance”.

UPDATE: I should also have noted the following from Graeme Orr: “The killer argument is simpler. Let disqualified losing candidates upset a close election, and in future every marginal seat will be seeded with a dummy candidate whose disqualification is obscure, but ready to be leaked to upset the result if it doesn’t go the way the dummy’s masters want.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

179 comments on “Queensland election endgame”

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  2. So the LNP win Mt Ommaney by less than the donkey vote they received. Whitsunday also won by LNP with the donkey vote – would have been won by Labor if Labor had received donkey vote. This is based on a donkey vote of 0.7-1.0% which is usual – although with OPV it could even go higher.

  4. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-sneeze-could-change-government-say-katter-mps-20150212-13cnw0.html
    [Queensland Election: Sneeze could change government, say Katter MPs
    February 12, 2015 – 1:31PM
    Amy Remeikis
    Queensland state political reporter

    “Just a sneeze” could change government in Queensland, according to the two MPs who could end the state’s uncertainty but are still making up their mind about which party to support.

    Having called a media conference to address the “outcome of discussions with both major parties”, Katter’s Australian Party MPs Rob Katter and Shane Knuth had nothing more to say than they did last week, or earlier this week.

    Labor is expected to have won 44 seats by the time all seats are declared and reach the magic 45 seats needed to form government with the support of independent Peter Wellington.

    The LNP is expected to win 42 seats and is relying on a possible re-election in Ferny Grove to give the party the extra seat needed to form government, if it had the support of the Katter MPs.

    If Mr Knuth and Mr Katter gave their support to Labor, any potential by-election would have less of an impact.

    But the pair, who said they were concerned by the uncertainty, also said they had time to make up their minds.

    They said discussions were continuing with both parties, but “there is clear daylight that the LNP is well ahead of the ALP in the number of priorities that we have counted up”.]

  5. [“Just a sneeze” could change government in Queensland, according to the two MPs who could end the state’s uncertainty but are still making up their mind about which party to support.]
    So if they are interested in certainty and stability they should ensure Labor has confidence and supply except for exceptional circumstances.

    These Katter party MPs know this, but they also know their constituents generally support the LNP so they are trying not to offend them.

  6. Leyror Lynch

    “”re-election in Ferny Grove””

    Typical, Liberals have NO logic!, Ferny Grove is a nominal ALP seat 2004 2006 2009 was won easily!.

  7. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/02/ferny-grove-preference-distribution-published.html
    [February 12, 2015
    Ferny Grove Preference Distribution Published

    The publication of the preference distribution for Ferny Grove has firmed up the chances of Labor winning any Court of Disputed Returns Decision.

    The final result has Labor winning by 466 votes after preferences.

    During the distribution of preferences from the Palmer United Candidate Mark Taverner, 353 of his ballot papers ‘exhausted’ with no further preference for Labor, LNP or Green candidates.

    Taverner has been revealed as an undischarged bankrupt and therefore not eligible to be a candidate.

    The figure of 353 is the maximum possible value of the number of Taverner’s ballot papers with a ‘1’ only vote.

    On his exclusion, Taverner’s votes would have included some votes from the previously excluded Independent Di Gittens. His total would also have included some 1-Taverner 2-Gittens votes that then exhausted.

    So 353 is the maximum possible value of ‘1’ only votes, that is ballot papers for taverner that did not make a valid preference choice forn one of the other four candidates.

    If every one of these had voted LNP in the absence of Taverner on the ballot paper, Labor would still have won Ferny Grove by more than 100 votes.

    That makes it harder to argue that Taverner’s presence on the ballot paper had an affect of the outcome in Ferny Grove.]
    more in the blog post

  13. A lot of people are tweeting margins off the notional margin and hence the incorrect figure of 184 in Lockyer is flying about a lot.

  14. [These Katter party MPs know this, but they also know their constituents generally support the LNP so they are trying not to offend them.]

    Except that Katter is the member for Mount Isa, which prior to his win in 2012 had been in Labor hands since 1989, and was a Labor stronghold for most of its history beforehand. When it was put to his father that he should back the Coalition after the 2010 election because of Kennedy’s conservative disposition, he liked to remind people that he did in fact win it from Labor (Rob Hulls, to be precise) when he first entered parliament in 1993.

  15. Looking at the TPP in Lockyer for various vote categories, basically Pauline Hanson was beaten by “Postal/Special Postal/Unenrolled” votes, which she lost by about 200. Though looking at the first prefs for that category she lost by about 500.

    Queensland never ceases to surprise me !

  16. Does the court consider that conducting another election to determine the result will show numbers even further from what is obtained here should Taverner not stand for election? I would understand voter fatigue or anger might skew the result somewhat.

    I believe Antony’s conclusion above would give a strong chance of reflecting the actual result.

    Should the exhausted figures be so much smaller, then maybe it would have been different.

  17. Rocket Rocket@115

    Looking at the TPP in Lockyer for various vote categories, basically Pauline Hanson was beaten by “Postal/Special Postal/Unenrolled” votes, which she lost by about 200. Though looking at the first prefs for that category she lost by about 500.

    Queensland never ceases to surprise me !

    I wouldn’t imagine that Pauline Hanson would be running much of a postal campaign but I could be wrong. I’d give that “unenrolled” portion the benefit of the doubt, unless my bias about her voters will start showing!

  20. Raaraa re Hanson
    Usually the major parties Lab/Lib/Nat have a long standing skill with postals and people who n ow how to gather the
    Indies,etc…and minor parties lack such people and skills and no wonder Hanson’s did poorly

  22. …and when Palaszczuk takes office do remember that 116 years ago there was a famous photo taken of Anderson Dawson Premier and his Cabinet walking out of the gate at Govt nHouse after forming the worlds first Labor Government(a minority one which lasted just a few days …but historic all the same ?)

  25. cud chewer@124

    Is it still looking like 44 for Labor, including Maryborough?

    Yes; this has not moved from being the most likely outcome since about the day after the election – except that it has now moved to being the definite outcome unless someone finds 1000 votes under the sofa in one of the seven undeclared seats mighty fast.

  30. Wouldn’t all the writs (or at least the 44 writs for the ALP-held seats and the writ for the independent-held seat) have to be returned for those Members to legally sit in Queensland Parliament (and thus, for any Labor government to have the numbers to govern) anyway, thus making any appointment of a Labor Premier before the writs are returned essentially for show?

  31. William Bowe@127

    Although de Jersey did she he would commission a new Premier “following polls declaration”, as distinct from the return of the writ.

    Yes, if they are all declared tomorrow that may well be enough.

  32. Raaraa, deblonay

    Yes what I amazed about is that Pauline essentially won the “on the day” vote. And in the postals she got a surprising number of prefs which reduced her deficit to the LNP on these from 500 to 200. All with a very short run-in time. Extraordinary.

  34. What if the LNP manages to bribe a newly minted ALP member with a ministry or the speakership?

    In the late 80’s the Malaysian ruling party (Barisan National) in Sabah lost a state election and managed to bribe enough members of the winning party to change sides, allowing them to hold power.

    That Jay Wetherill was allowed to get away with doing this (Martin Hamilton Smith) has set an alarming precedent. 25 years ago criminal charges were involved when something similar happened when the Gray Government lost its majority in Tasmania. There also the murky precedents of Colston and Slipper in the senate.

    The LNP could be encouraged to try something like this now that the SA precedent has passed with so little censure. Perhaps that’s the true reason why they are delaying things??

  35. Just check at 9:35 Brisbane time and the undeclared seats are
    Burnett
    Dalrymple
    Redlands
    Thuringowa
    Townsville

    None of these have been in any contention so it seems rather odd that they are the last to be declared. You would think the electoral commission would have done these long ago.

  36. Just checked all those seats and they are all ones where the projected winning candidate doesn’t have an absolute majority so presumably they have to work through the detailed preference distribution before finalising the count.

  37. [ There also the murky precedents of Colston and Slipper in the senate.]

    Mal Colston was bribed with the Deputy President role, and Peter Slipper with the Speaker’s role. Interestingly, both were Queenslanders whose desire for the baubles and pomp of high office outweighed what their Party and electors wanted.

    Sadly, both crashed and burned with the epitaph “Rat” ringing in their ears, and public humiliation being their political legacy. Maybe one of the newly minted 44 Qld ALP members wants to go down this path?

  39. peterk@134

    What if the LNP manages to bribe a newly minted ALP member with a ministry or the speakership?

    In the late 80′s the Malaysian ruling party (Barisan National) in Sabah lost a state election and managed to bribe enough members of the winning party to change sides, allowing them to hold power.

    That Jay Wetherill was allowed to get away with doing this (Martin Hamilton Smith) has set an alarming precedent. 25 years ago criminal charges were involved when something similar happened when the Gray Government lost its majority in Tasmania. There also the murky precedents of Colston and Slipper in the senate.

    The LNP could be encouraged to try something like this now that the SA precedent has passed with so little censure. Perhaps that’s the true reason why they are delaying things??

    Unlike the situation in Malaysia, this wasn’t a bribe, and I believe MH Smith was clear with his explanation.

  40. Oh course, we have had a case of an offer of a straightforward monetary bribe in Queensland. The offerors got 3 months and fines of 500 pounds each. They were thought to be mere agents of an unidentified principal who wasn’t caught. See http://oa.anu.edu.au/obituary/brennan-frank-tenison-5348 There’s also a report in the Queensland Law Reports but it’s only about a procedural matter – whether the case should go to a general or special jury. And there’s an article in the AJPH but you need a subscription to read it.

  41. Party swapping is actually pretty common in Canada. Some provinces have tried to deal with it by passing laws to require a by-election should an MP switch sides. This is gotten around by the MP just joining the opposing side’s Cabinet but not the actual party.

  42. 121 deblonay

    It seems so. Labor now declared in all 44 seats. (The tally on the ECQ page is wrong — Thuringowa has been declared but it’s not in the count. Not sure why.)

  43. Burnett is the only seat left to declare. As the LNP got a 49% primary you must wonder what the hold-up is.
    I presume the Governor will wait till all are in then go through the formality of meeting the party leaders.
    Palaszczuk may have to wait till Monday

  45. No, sorry, it hasn’t been. My mistake.

    In any case, I don’t think you’d have to wait for another declaration, when enough have been declared for a majority.

  48. KAP have been wandering around thinking they are kingmakers. Springborg of course sold them his arse (I guess he could say it was Newman who said no deals).
    Now that they are largely irrelevant any further negotiations with Labor will be on Labor’s terms but it would still be in the government’s interests to have them onside.

  50. ltep@141

    Party swapping is actually pretty common in Canada. Some provinces have tried to deal with it by passing laws to require a by-election should an MP switch sides. This is gotten around by the MP just joining the opposing side’s Cabinet but not the actual party.

    Interesting. It’s the same case in Singapore too. If an MP leaves the party, he or she leaves the seat automatically, and a by-election is expected. I don’t know when this was enacted or left over from old British conventions, but it helps the ruling party in the event someone actually leaves the party.

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