Queensland election late counting

Slowly over the course of the coming week, we will learn if Labor has scrambled over the line for a parliamentary majority. Follow the action day-by-day on this post.

ALP LNP ALP lead/deficit Outstanding (estimated) ALP target Projected ALP final
Ferny Grove 14128 13714 414 1003 28.3% 50.8%
Whitsunday 14019 14370 -351 1902 60.2% 49.6%
Mount Ommaney 13649 13819 -170 874 60.1% 49.7%

Saturday evening

“Labor 44, LNP 42, KAP two and one independent” is looking firmer than ever after Chris Foley conceded defeat today in Maryborough, presumably having done the maths from a) his 1271 deficit against Labor on the primary vote (7980 to 6709), b) the fact that there are only 7215 votes from the exclusion of Palmer United, One Nation, the Greens and a second independent to help him close the gap, and c) a knowledge I don’t have concerning the exhaustion rate of Palmer United and One Nation in particular, which is presumably exceedingly high. The LNP didn’t do too badly on today’s counting in Ferny Grove, gaining 31 on counting of 371 absents as well as 30 on 194 postals, while losing three on out-of-division pre-polls. But with a 414-vote Labor lead and barely 1000 votes outstanding, the door remains bolted. All we got today from Mount Ommaney was a handful of declaration votes which broke 18-11 to Labor. Another 326 postals and 254 absents were counted in Whitsunday, adding five votes to the LNP lead by my reckoning. Pauline Hanson is still 183 votes behind in Lockyer, though I think there were actually new numbers added today. As best as I can tell though, we’re now down to the last 1000 outstanding votes.

Friday evening

A final result of Labor 44, LNP 42, KAP two and one independent continues to firm. Labor have shut the door on Ferny Grove with a first batch of absent votes that have favoured them 716-585, despite 460 pre-poll absents and 284 postals respectively closing the gap by 34 and 24. Whitsunday continues to slip from Labor’s reach, a 400-372 split on the latest batch of absents being less than they needed. Also added were a 77-75 split to Labor on pre-poll absents and a 94-54 split on declaration votes. Labor keeps edging closer in Mount Ommaney, making up 11 on counting of 495 pre-poll absent votes and 13 on 261 election day absents. But with perhaps less than 1000 votes to come, it’s too little too late.

Friday morning

The maths got quite a bit harder for Labor in Whitsunday yesterday with the addition of a strong batch of absents for the LNP, as is explained below. The situation in Ferny Grove remains stable, which is to say that an LNP win will require a big surprise on absent votes, none of which have yet been counted. The LNP is home and hosed in Mansfield, so I won’t be following the count there henceforth, but they can’t quite shake off Labor in Mount Ommaney, where Labor yesterday made up 136 votes on absents while losing 14 on the diminishing number of postals. The situation in Mount Ommaney is similar to Ferny Grove in that I expect out-of-division pre-polls to confirm the anticipated result, but I can’t quite put down my glasses until I see some solid numbers. Pauline Hanson lingers in contention in Lockyer, where she is just 183 votes in arrears. This follows a surprisingly bad showing for the LNP on absents, over half of which were counted yesterday. However, there’s no guarantee that this trend will carry through the remainder of the absent votes, which might come from different locations. All told, the most likely outcome is Labor 44, LNP 42, KAP two and one independent, with Labor to form a minority government with the support of the independent, Peter Wellington.


4.45pm. A second batch of absents in Whitsunday obviously came from a much better place for the LNP than the first, as I am estimating them to have gone 153-110 in favour of the LNP compared with 171-103 to Labor from the first batch. Another 558 postals have broken 289-223 to the LNP, but I’m guessing there won’t be many of these to come, whereas there could still be as many as 2000 absents outstanding. However, there are also no out-of-division pre-polls counted yet, which were slightly favourable to the LNP in 2012. My projection of the Labor total is back to 49.6% after rising to 49.8% yesterday, and their estimated required share of outstanding votes is up to an imposing 56.6%. Better news for Labor from Ferny Grove, where 284 postal votes have actually broken in their favour, by 115-105. Still no absent votes though, which I have consistently been anticipating will decide the result for Labor. In Lockyer, Pauline Hanson has made up a tiny amount of ground from 1464 absents and 415 out-of-division pre-polls, her deficit down from 214 to 198.

Thursday morning

Whitsunday continues to look like the decisive factor in whether Labor can get over the line to a majority, as I discussed in a piece for Crikey yesterday. Yesterday’s counting will have raised Labor’s hopes, with an extremely strong batch of 313 absent votes cutting the published lead to 88. However, I’m calculating that postal and pre-poll votes that haven’t yet been added to the two-party count will push it out to a little over 300. Even so, my projected final result for Labor is up from 49.6% to 49.8%, and it’s possible that this will be a trend if my assumptions about the behaviour of absent votes turn out to be disproved. Postal votes continue to chip away at the Labor lead in Ferny Grove, but I expect that absent votes will settle the issue in their favour when they are added. The trend has been to Labor in the other two seats I am tracking, Mount Ommaney and Mansfield, but not strongly enough to overturn the LNP’s leads. Counting of absent votes is particularly advanced in Mansfield, and there are too few votes left outstanding for the result to be in doubt. The narrow LNP lead over Pauline Hanson in Lockyer has increased ever so slightly with further counting of postals and pre-polls, up from 122 yesterday to 214 today, which should increase by another 30 when pre-polls counted on the primary vote are added to the two-party total. If the 2012 results are anything to go by, out-of-division pre-polls should settle the issue when they are counted.


4.30pm. The first batch of 313 absent votes is in from Whitsunday, and they haven’t disappointed so far as Labor is concerned, breaking 171-103 that way. If that trend is maintained over the remaining absents, Labor will bolt home – but I think it’s pretty safe to assume that they won’t. Absent vote counting tends to be highly variable depending on where particular batches were sourced from, and I’d say these ones come from Mackay. My projection in the table above is not based on such an assumption, but even so the projected ALP total has now shifted from 49.6% to 49.8%. There have also been 256 “uncertain identity” votes, but these have only been slightly to the advantage of Labor. A further 609 postals have been added to the count for Ferny Grove, which by my reckoning will break 311-282 to the LNP on two-party preferred, bringing the Labor lead down from 385 to 337, assuming primary votes not yet added to the two-party total behave as the others have on preferences. While the trend appears to be against Labor as postal votes continue to be added to the count, absent votes will surely favour them when finally added to the count, which is why my projections aren’t rating the LNP as much of a chance.

Wednesday morning

To summarise yesterday’s counting, the LNP continues to chip away at Labor’s lead in Ferny Grove, but probably not by enough given the likely trend of yet-to-be-counted absent votes; Labor has made what are probably too-little, too-late gains in Mount Ommaney and Mansfield; Pauline Hanson is running the LNP very fine in Lockyer but will most likely fall short; and the likelihood is that a Labor majority will depend on the very close call of Whitsunday, where the odds are slightly favouring the LNP. I mean to add Lockyer to the table above when I can find the time. For now, the table has a new feature in a column called “ALP target”, which estimates the share of the two-party vote Labor will need from the votes outstanding in order to win the seat. For those of you who have just joined us, the seat tally in the seats excluding the four in the table plus Maryborough and Lockyer is 42 for Labor, 38 for the LNP, two for Katter’s Australian Party and one independent. The six outstanding seats include one where Labor is not in contention and one where the LNP is not in contention, so their best case scenarios are 47 and 43 seats respectively – although you can just about write Labor off in Mount Ommaney and Mansfield.


6pm. I’ve updated the table for three of the four listed electorates. In Ferny Grove, 311 declared institution votes and a few others have broken strongly to the LNP, probably because they’re from old people’s homes and such. On my reading this reduces the Labor lead from 502 to 385, and the projected winning margin from 1.1% to 0.9%. But there are still no absent votes in the count, which in 2012 were nearly 4% worse for the LNP than the booth results, and particularly strong for the Greens. So I will remain surprised if the LNP can rein it in. In Whitsunday, another 1070 postals behaved exactly as previous batches, which is to say they flowed strongly to the LNP. They haven’t been added on 2PP yet, but my total above applies the existing preference split to them and suggests they increase the LNP lead from 163 to 371. The question remains whether absent votes will save Labor when they are added, which none yet have been. The projection continues to be that they will fall 0.4% short. It’s probably too little too late, but 852 votes in Mount Ommaney, mostly postals, have been to the advantage of Labor, reducing the LNP lead by 24 where previous batches had increased it. Labor may yet hope for a surprise when absents are added, but the projection remains LNP by 0.6%. More pre-polls and postals have been added for Mansfield on primary but not 2PP, which I’ll attend to later.

3.45pm. With the notional count now having all but caught up with the primary one, LNP member Ian Rickuss leads Pauline Hanson in Lockyer by 122. Out-of-division pre-polls are unlikely to favour her, and absent votes will presumably come more the eastern edge of the electorate, where she performed slightly less well. So my earlier assessment of close-but-no-cigar still looks solid. The LNP is now well and truly out of the woods in Gaven, the 2PP lead now at 823. Not sure exactly what’s going on in Maryborough, one of the few seats where the ECQ hasn’t pulled the 2CP count, despite the fact that the count itself is not particularly interesting. What we need is a three-candidate preferred count to establish if minor party and independent preferences will push Chris Foley ahead of Labor, but I gather we’ll actually have to wait for the final preference distribution to see what’s happened here.

Tuesday morning

The big news yesterday came from Lockyer and Gaven, where new notional preference counts are being conducted to replace those conducted on election night which identified the wrong candidates as the two who will make the final count. Both these counts are turning up surprises on early indications, respectively in favour of Pauline Hanson and Labor. Hanson seems to be receiving enough preferences from Labor supporters who tuned in to the exhortation to “put the LNP last” – not in fact what the Labor how-to-vote card directed them to do in this particular electorate – to take the fight right up to LNP incumbent Ian Rickuss. The media is particularly excited that Hanson has a strong lead on the raw count, but this reflects the fact that the five booths where the notional count has been completed were particularly strong for her. She is definitely in the race, but for reasons explained below, Rickuss would probably be slightly favoured.

In Gaven, the ECQ count on the night assumed independent incumbent Alex Douglas would make the cut, but he finished a distant third. Now a count is being conducted between the LNP and Labor, and it seems Douglas’s voters followed his recommendation to preference Labor. As noted below, I’m projecting the LNP to be about 200 votes ahead when all this is done, remembering that this doesn’t account for absents, pre-polls and outstanding postals not yet added to the count. The precedent of 2012 offers no clear indication of these being decisively favourable to one side or the other.

Of the five seats on my existing watch list (i.e. those in the table above plus Maryborough), nothing much changed yesterday, with little progress in four of the five. The exception was Ferny Grove, for which 1079 postals wore down the Labor lead from 577 to 502 without changing the final projection. What did happen yesterday was that the ECQ pulled down the notional two-party counts for every seat except Gaven, Lockyer, Mansfield, Maryborough and Whitsunday, on the basis that it will not continue the notional count with votes to be added henceforth, and that what we don’t know won’t hurt us. So the table above (which may well come to include Gaven and Lockyer shortly) will project preferences from the primary votes added to the count henceforth using the existing preference flows.

So to summarise. Assuming no late surprises in Ferny Grove, Mount Ommaney and Mansfield, we can start with a base of 43 seats for Labor, 39 for the LNP, two for the KAP and one independent, namely Peter Wellington in Nicklin. Beyond that, Whitsunday and Gaven might go either LNP or Labor, Maryborough might go either Labor or independent (although Amy Remeikis of Fairfax relates that Labor is “expected” to win), and Lockyer might go to either the LNP or Pauline Hanson. My feeling is that the LNP will most likely win Whitsunday, Gaven and Lockyer, and Labor will most likely win Maryborough, leaving Labor one seat short of a majority. But I could well be wrong about any or all of those. It would seem the best the LNP can hope for is 42, whereas Labor could get to 46.


5.35pm. On closer examination, I suspect this will be as good as it gets for Hanson. Her primary vote in the booths that have reported is 34.1%, compared with 27.3% in the electorate at large. Presumably her preference share will be correspondingly lower in the rest of the electorate as well.

5.20pm. Projecting the preference flows from five booths over the entirety of the results, I end up with the LNP 92 votes in the lead over Hanson for a margin of 0.2%. I’ll now try and see if I can come up with a more sophisticated means of projecting it based on regional booth variations.

5pm. Bloody hell. Indicative count finds Pauline Hanson a show in Lockyer – doing better than expected on preferences. Developing.

4.32pm. Two more booths in now from the Gaven LNP-versus-Labor count, making for three polling day booths and the pre-poll booth, bringing the projected LNP margin up from 213 to 226.

4.30pm. A further 772 postals in Mansfield are better for Labor than the first, but they’ve still broken 408-330 to the LNP (mercifully, the two-party results are still up here). There have also been 138 declaration votes added from those who hadn’t brought ID that have broken 79-53 to Labor. While the LNP lead is out from 495 to 547, their projected final result is down from 51.2% to 51.0%.

4pm. A second batch of 1079 postals have been added to the primary vote count in Ferny Grove, and they’ve behaved almost exactly the same as the first, leaving my projection of a 1.0% Labor win unchanged. Unfortunately, the 2PP count for this and many other seats has been taken down. Please don’t let this be permanent …

3.45pm. I hadn’t been rating Labor’s prospects in the Gold Coast seat of Gaven, but now the ECQ is conducting an LNP-versus-Labor preference throw it’s looking at least interesting. The issue here is that the notional preference count on election night was conducted on an independent-versus-Labor basis, the independent being Alex Douglas, a former LNP member who quit mid-term during the term and contested the election as an independent. Douglas in fact finished a distant third, so the issue was how preferences would go in determining the result between the LNP and Labor. Douglas directed his preferences to Labor, but given his flow needed to be almost Greens-like to get Labor over the line, I didn’t think it probable. But with preference counts now added for pre-polls and one election day polling booth, the flow is 40.5% to Labor, 16.2% to the LNP and 43.3% exhausted. There’s very little local variation in this seat, so this pattern will presumably play out over the results to come. Projecting that on to the total primary vote count leaves the LNP with a lead of only 213, or 10466-10253.

2.30pm. The ECQ has curiously removed most of the notional two-party results from its website and media feed, which I can only hope is very temporary (one effect of which has been to send the ABC’s results display haywire, so that the LNP is now wrongly credited with a majority). As far as I can see, the only substantial progress in the key seats has been what was foreshadowed in the previous post, namely that the 421 postals from Whitsunday that were added on the primary vote yesterday are now there on 2PP as well, breaking 223-144 to the LNP and boosting the lead from 84 to 163.


This post will be progressively updated to follow the late counting for the Queensland election over the coming days. There was a fair bit of counting done yesterday in key seats, mostly consisting of the first batches of postals and out-of-electorate pre-polls. In my post yesterday I identified six seats that I was ready to give away, but one of those, Redlands, was put beyond doubt by the counting of pre-polls, which broke 3757-3153 the way of the LNP to blow the lead out to 974. Excluding the remaining in-doubt seats of Ferny Grove, Whitsunday, Mount Ommaney, Mansfield and Maryborough, the tally of confirmed seats is now 42 for Labor, 39 for the Liberal National Party, two for Katter’s Australian Party and one independent. Since Maryborough is a race between Labor and a potential second independent, the best the LNP can hope for is 43, which is two short of a majority, whereas Labor could theoretically make it to 47. However, they are behind the eight-ball in Mount Ommaney and Mansfield, so their more realistic path to a majority involves staying ahead in Ferny Grove, holding off independent Chris Foley in Maryborough, and closing what is presently an 84-vote deficit in Whitsunday.

The table at the top shows the raw two-party totals for four of the five seats (the exception of Maryborough is explained below), an estimate of the number of votes outstanding (I’m hoping the ECQ will provide me with data to make these guesses more educated) and a projection of the final Labor two-party result, derived mostly from historical experience of how particular vote types deviate from the ordinary votes.

Here’s a quick account of each:

Ferny Grove. The addition of 1227 votes yesterday, mostly postals, narrowed the Labor lead from 703 to 577. I’m roughly estimating around 2500 postals to come, which would cut the lead by a further 250 if they continued to break 55-45 to the LNP. However, past form suggests Labor should gain about 100 on absents, with the rest being roughly neutral.

Whitsunday. The only real progress here yesterday was a batch of 421 postals, but they went strongly to the LNP and should add about 100 to the existing 84-vote lead when they are added to the two-party count. If that trend continues the LNP will win, but postals can behave erratically, and Labor historically performs strongly on absents in this electorate, presumably because most of them are cast in Mackay.

Mount Ommaney. The 1136 votes added to the count yesterday were mostly postals, and as postals often do they favoured the LNP, pushing the lead out from 389 to 525. Labor should do better on absents, but it’s very unlikely to be enough.

Mansfield. A lot of progress in the count here yesterday with a big batch of 2128 postals added, and it was very favourable for LNP incumbent Ian Walker, turning his 25-vote deficit into a 495 lead. My guess is that that’s unlikely to change much from here, with slight gains to Labor from absents and outstanding pre-polls to be cancelled out by the trend to the LNP on postals.

Maryborough. This one’s the great imponderable so far as the progress of the count is concerned, as what we need to know is whether preferences from Palmer United and others will push independent Chris Foley to finish second ahead of Labor, in which case he will win the seat. We won’t have any idea about this until the ECQ does a preference count, either at the very end of proceedings in about a week’s time or (hopefully) in the next day or two by conducting an indicative count of the relevant minor party and independent votes to see how their preferences are going. Labor has 6891 votes to Foley’s 5837, and there are 5566 votes from various other candidates, including 3354 from Palmer United.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

596 comments on “Queensland election late counting”

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  1. the earky bird … hmm to these results. hope william more reliable than prediction like everyone else in country of overall result a few days ago

  2. I am very suspicious of postals this time around because the LNP were handing out postals w with a return address envelope that was a LNP office. If the postals fall towards the LNP against expectations and statistical indications then we can see the fact that the LNP have intercepted votes. I certainly wouldn’t put it past them.

  3. Could Gaven also be a potential 44th or 45th seat for the ALP ?

    The independent Alex Douglas put the ALP ahead of the LNP in his How to Vote cards, and the ECQ website has no 2 party preferred count for the seat ?

  4. Smaug the LNP, and ALP, only get the postal vote applications. The actual votes are sent out by the ECQ directly to the voter. The parties have no way to intercept the actual votes and the applications do not have any info on which to cull.

    I’m surprised we have not heard from the parties how they think Maryborough & Gaven are likely to go as the scrutineers should have good idea of the exhaustion rates & preference split of the minors.

  5. Smaug – just as kevhohnno said, the major parties include a return addressed envelope in their PV applications; so it is only the application that gets returned to them. They are then passed onto the electoral commission who forward the actually voting papers from there. They do this so that they can sent a HTV card to the PV recipients. Whether that translates into more votes for them, I don’t know.

  6. Gaven is safely LNP.

    As I explained at the Tally Room, for Labor to win Gaven they would need a preference flow from Douglas/PUP/etc at the same high rate that Green prefs flow to Labor.

    Not gonna happen.

  7. I know I’m rushing here, but if this does turn into a 2010-Federal style minority Government, who ends up with the cross-bench support?

    I’m guessing the ALP because:

    Wellington previously supported the ALP.

    Foley, if successful, seems to more of that line of thinking. I googled him and found the first two quotes being describing the LNP as “sneaky” and “heartless towards the average worker”. I have no insight at all into Foley’s mindset, except that even the phrase “the average worker” sounds pretty left wing, let alone the quote as a whole.

    But the KAP ???

    These are mostly guesses, so I thought I’d ask the experts… over to you Bludgers!

  8. A second observation is that while Palaszczuk can be wooing independents while the LNP is still fighting themselves and trying to figure out who is actually the leader.

    That must give the ALP a small assistance too.

  9. The ALP is around 2100 votes behind on first preferences in Gaven.

    In the recent Fisher by-election in SA, the ALP had a comparable 1900 first preference gap, which it was able to make up with preferences from votes for the independent Dan Woodyatt.

    This was in spite of Woodyatt having open How to Vote cards, while Douglas is preferencing the ALP candidate over the LNP candidate.

  10. Rates, Wellington has already declared for ALP, and Foley seems pretty safe too. So a likely out come is 43+2 (or 44+1); no KAPs required.

    But if Ferny Grove were to fall to LNP, ALP would need a KAP to govern. That would be a very different outcome.

  11. Thanks very much Glen.

    A second question, is there a speaker in the QLD parliament? is 45 really enough to Govern or do you need 46?

  12. KAP surely more likely to support ALP – they’re classic Bjelke conservatives from what I see, desirous of a strong government social and economic role. Avowedly anti-privatisation, with a strong public sector employment policy: so much so that Together (our major public sector union) even called for members to support KAP candidates.

    ALP might struggle to, say, get civil unions restored relying on KAP. But on administrative, governance and economic issues I imagine they could be relied on to support Labor.

    If they did back an LNP government, it would be a defanged creature radically different from that rejected on Saturday.

  13. Yes – I’d noticed that KAP’s policy page on asset sales is not conducive to privatisation. Actively hostile might be a better description.

    (And according to Wiki the QLD speaker gets a deliberative vote, so although there is a speaker, they don’t cost the Government a vote. i.e. 45 is enough.)

  14. Foley is a conservative Christian (& ex-Nat) rather like Liz Cunningham could see him supporting somebody from Nat wing of LNP

  15. The Queensland speaker doesn’t vote by convention but has a casting vote on a tie, so 45 is a majority.

    KAP have said they would “deal” with the ALP, but ALP have promised not to deal. Presumably KAP would support the ALP on the floor of parliament, at least initially. Problems would start when rural conservative hot buttons are pressed. Wild rivers, perchance? A very different outcome.

  16. Geoff

    I didn’t know he was an ex-national. But then again, and as I pointed out to a National here at work in 2010, people who are “Ex” a particular party normally left for very strong reasons.

    People like Oakeshott and Windsor, who were also ex-nationals, for example.

    A very minimalist agreement with KAP might actually work to labour’s advantage. Supply and nothing else would see the assets not sold (tick for election promises) and give the ALP a few months to actually build a policy agenda. I’m presuming they don’t have too much in that line ready to be legislated in the next few months anyway.

    Bracks didn’t do too much early on either.

    It would technically be a “deal” with KAP, but if they don’t give anything away it wouldn’t look too bad.

    There’s no reason there has to be a strong “agreement”. Government bills being defeated in the only house of Government wouldn’t be too much of an issue, except for shock value. Federal Government bills get defeated in the Senate all the time.

  17. A fascinating week ahead! I am certainly not going to make predictions at this stage with confidence…. But I am inclined to think that Labor will finish with 43, and support from Wellington (maybe as speaker?). I also expect Foley to get up ie, LNP will end up on 42. In the circumstances I then think it likely that KAP and Foley will allow Labor to form Government on the basis of Labor winning more seats, gaining a higher 2PP and the greater stability this will provide, but whilst reserving the right to vote on Bills on a case by case basis.

  18. A lot of the above seems to be discounting Whitsunday, which I think is unnecessarily pessimistic. It still seems very possible that Wellington by himself will be enough (or, depending on Maryborough, he might not even be necessary, although surely they’d still offer him Speaker).

    I think it unlikely KAP will come into play – for that, Labor would have to lose Ferny Grove AND Whitsunday, which would be the most rotten bad luck (although not out of the question).

  19. Actually Glen it’s more than convention. Under s 13 of the Parliament of Queensland Act 2001,
    (b) the Speaker or Deputy Speaker presiding-
    (i) has no deliberative vote; but
    (ii) if the votes are equal, has the casting vote.
    So your conclusion is right – 45 is enough.

  20. Outsider

    I think you are right. I think Labor WILL depend on Katter.

    I am not certain about Ferny Grove because there did not seem to be much “any” campaign activity this time.This probably means that postals and absentees were not chased as well as they should have been.

    Whereas in Ashgrove and Mt Cootha there was lots of high visibility, in the largest shopping centre (my local) there was not much activity. There may have been some in Ferny grove small centres or out at semi rural Samford but I think not as the local branch members chose to work in Ashgrove or Stafford.

    So William: This is one for psephologists/campaign managers etc. Does high visibility campaiging – “waving at cars” shopping centre stalls, door knocking etc actually have an impact.

    Comparing the votes in Ashgrove with neighbouring Ferny Grove could give valuable information Compare the swings in adjacent booths – or the joint booths. I will in fact have a look at this in an hour or so. Need to go out for a short time, but I think it would make a very interesting study.

  21. daretotread – i’m interested in this. A disappointing result for Labor was my seat, Toowoomba North. The ALP’s campaign was a lot more low key than the LNPs. I saw the incumbent LNP member out and about at least once every week of the campaign, whereas I only saw Kerry Shine once – yesterday, when he was retrieving corflutes. LNP carpet-bombed the electorate with signage, hit us here in my household three times with robocalls and pushpolling (as against zero ALP contact), and finally, were all over the polling booth Saturday – 3 vollies in choice spots. Shine made do with one.

  22. Daretotread. I’m also interested in this. My view is that it must have some impact on at least name recognition. This could be more important when the candidate is not high profile or known in the electorate. Don’t believe it changes too many votes though, but as we always see a handful of votes makes a big difference in the last seats finalized.

  23. I can’t see anyone on that crossbench supporting the LNP. Without support for asset sales they don’t have a mandate for anything

  24. Yes trand

    I can’t really see any cross-bencher singing up for asset sales given this result.

    And I can’t really see the LNP giving up on that policy. Though a new leader (particularly an N rather than a L) might consider it?

  25. agree trand – an LNP minority would quite possibly be compelled to eat a few sh*t sandwiches and actually unwind some of the last term’s ‘reforms’: eg, restoring permanency to public servants (KAP policy).

  26. William,

    The Lead in Ferny Grove is 423, not 577. At that rate with the remaining postals it will be close.
    I agree with the commenter above that Gaven should be in doubt. And what about Southport. There awful lot of votes we don’t have 2PP for there and its quite close so could be significant.

  27. OK

    Some fascinating data:

    There is one triple booth, serving Ashgrove, Ferny Grove and Everton electorates.

    Now in Ashgrove we had a very high profile campaign with lots of activity. Hoards of bright red and smurf blue everywhere.

    In Everton we ran a low profile campaign. This was not a targeted seat as it required a swing of 13.2% and the ALP wisely though money better spent elsewhere. The LNP member personable, hard working and quite popular.

    In Ferny Grove a 9.5% swing needed. Candidate imposed on the electorate against the wishes of a large majority of local members. The popular local candidate has no factions and has burned a few (many) bridges, but nevertheless is personable, hard working and capable of gaining a personal support base. This meant that local members did not put in effort at street stalls or any his visibility (car waving).

    The loss in LNP support was fairly similar across all electorates – minus 6.5-7%. The destination of that lost vote differs.

    Ashgrove: Kate Jones got a swing of +10% drawing ALL the lost Newman vote and another 3% from minor parties/independents. The Greens also had a tiny swing against them.

    Ferny Grove: There was NO swing to Labor. 7% loss from the LNP and 6.5 % DECLINE in Greens votes went almost all to PUP and independents with JUST 3% to Furner

    Everton: A slightly smaller 6.5% swing against LNP appears to have landed 100% with the Greens as has all the previous Katter vote. Labor DROPPED 1%.

    Conclusion: Campainging and candidate choice is VERY important, especially in relation to minor parties.

  28. Note also

    I have NOT checked the election boundaries. The rather strange outcome of a 20% greens vote falling to 7% in Everton balanced by a 6.5% increase in Ferny Grove might indicate a pocket of votes has moved.

    Numbers particularly for Ferny gGrove are quite small

  29. Peterk, can’t see how Southport is anyway close. Only a sample of booth prefs in, but enough. Gaven, less sure, but smart people are saying no. It’s the odd one out — the only LNP gain of the 2015.

  30. I think it’s nonsense to say that Gaven is an “LNP gain”, and I wish the ABC would stop saying that sort of thing. The LNP won the seat in 2012, the LNP won the seat in 2015. It’s an LNP hold. I mean, if Lawrence Springborg defected to Labor tomorrow, we wouldn’t call Southern Downs an “LNP gain from Labor” at the next election if we wanted to be saying anything useful.

  31. Regardless of the final count, sounds like it would be very wise for Labor to talk to Foley, Katter and Wellington right now. In SA Labor sensibly wooed a second ex-Liberal to join them, ensuring that even if one independent ceased to support them (and sadly Bob Such passed away) they still had a stable government.

    I think it would be possible for Labor to reach a deal with Katter, especially if they focus on retaining rural services and protecting farmland from mining. Katter has not been friendly with the Nationals for a long time.

  32. Glen, the ‘smart’ people may be saying ‘no’ to Gaven going to ALP, but are they informed smart people? Have they looked at votes for Greens and PUP and Alex Douglas (and Chris Ivory if it’s really close) and seen how the preferences are falling? That’s what matters!

  33. For those interested in Maryborough Pre Poll the QEC shows

    Counted 6633 Maryborough Pre poll votes

    LNP 1874
    ALP 1837
    IND Foley 1419
    PUP 820
    ONP 500
    Grn 122
    IND Wattie 61

    This shows the ALP pulling away from IND Foley and the counted preferences are ALP 2853, LNP 2339 Exhausted 1441, staying well in front of LNP.

  34. Jack

    The key seems to be PUP preferences. If they split evenly then it could be close. if they favour labour even 60/40 then there is a real chance for Labor.

  35. And on that point, great pieice here:

    [Any Queensland government must now understand there can be no going back to the dark days of the past, that there is no electoral reward to be had from “strong plans” that don’t factor in the human cost of unrestrained crony capitalism. There will from now on be no electoral reward from “strength”, if that means treating citizens with disdain and contempt. ]


  36. i know I’m dreaming, but if we do go to minority govt I’d love to see the balance reps press for restoration of an upper house and/or prop. rep in the lower. Apart from curbing the executive excess to which this state is prone, an UH also enable KAP parliamentary representation.

  37. ausdavo – thanks for that. been hanging out for a concise and comprehensible update on counting. btw, you and unitary state are two whose posts I’ve found especially enlightening over the last month or so.

  38. [i know I’m dreaming, but if we do go to minority govt I’d love to see the balance reps press for restoration of an upper house and/or prop. rep in the lower. Apart from curbing the executive excess to which this state is prone, an UH also enable KAP parliamentary representation.]

    I’d like that too but agree that you and I may be dreaming.

  39. Gaze upon the irrelevant artefacts of the Courier-Mail’s embarrassing and utterly ineffectual pro-Newman stance here:

    No-one was listening to you, Curious Snail. No one gave a monkeys arse what you thought.

    Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

  40. ithurtstosneeze,

    Thanks for that.

    I know I show my colours in some of my comments.

    In my assessments I try to feed in past experience (since the 1961 Federal Election) but react when things look different to the recent past. This election has proved that to be a wise move.

  41. What’s going on over at the ABC’s Qld Election page? They’ve got the prediction at LNP 46, Labor 40, Katter 2 and Other (Peter Wellington in Nicklin) 1.

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