Newspoll: Cairns, Ipswich West and Keppel poll

A new result for Newspoll provides Labor with a great headline, but as a small-sample poll with a combined result for three very disparate electorates, it’s very hard to say how much it might mean.

The Australian has a Newspoll result of somewhat dubious utility, in which three disparate electorates – Cairns, Keppel and far distant Ipswich West – were targeted with small samples of 200 respondents each, the composite result indicating a reversal from 57.4-42.6 to the LNP in 2012 to 56-44 to Labor now. Which is obviously very good news for Labor, but how good is extremely hard to say. On the primary vote, Labor is up from 31% to 47%, the LNP down from 43.5% to 35%, the Greens down from 6.6% to 5% and others down from 18.9% to 13%, Katter’s Australian Party having done well in all three seats in 2012 but not contesting this time.

Campbell Newman cops a particularly tough mark of 32% approval to 60% disapproval, though whether this reflects a decline in his fortunes since previous campaign polls or peculiarity of sentiment in these electorates is, once again, impossible to say. The same goes for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s strong ratings of 45% approval and 33% disapproval, her 46-36 lead as preferred premier, and the LNP’s unusually narrow lead of 44-36 as party expected to win.

The rationale behind polling these seats is clearly to get a sense of how things are looking in seats in the 6-9% range, but since similar margins is all these seats have in common, I’m not sure how illuminating it is. Basically, I’d much rather have seen Newspoll’s efforts dedicated to a particular region, or even just one seat, than a scattershot look at three electorates that have nothing to do with each other.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

211 comments on “Newspoll: Cairns, Ipswich West and Keppel poll”

  1. Tom

    It takes a remarkable dedication to myopia to think that in a state where 3 of the 4 most recent elections returned 0 Greens in the Senate, the Greens are nevertheless favourites to return a Senator in the next two.

    Reality is out there.

  2. Antony – that is fascinating about “entrenching” – I did not realise that occurred. And I thought that down here Victoria’s Constitution was not the same, but have just found out that

    The Victorian Constitution can be amended by the Parliament of Victoria, except for certain “entrenched” provisions that require either an absolute majority in both houses, a three-fifths majority in both houses, or the approval of the Victorian people in a referendum, depending on the provision

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_%28Australia%29#Constitution

    Does our federal Constitution have “entrenched” bits as well?

  3. The entire Australian Constitution is entrenched as changing any word of it requires a referendum. The state constitutions are all normal statutes, except where the states have chosen to entrench certain sections. Some states also have provisions that require an absolute majority in parliament to amend.

  4. 144

    148 has provided the early examples of entrenchment and its validity. There is only a little to add.

    The Trethowan judgement ruled that the law was valid under the Colonial Laws Validity Act 1865. In 1986 the Colonial Laws validity Act was replaced by the Australia Act(s) using the powers held at the Establishment of the Constitution by the UK Parliament granted to the Commonwealth by 51xxxviii when the states directly concerned agree.

  5. [It takes a remarkable dedication to myopia to think that in a state where 3 of the 4 most recent elections returned 0 Greens in the Senate, the Greens are nevertheless favourites to return a Senator in the next two.
    Reality is out there.]

    At this stage, the Greens would be well favoured to win a third left seat over the ALP. The ALP won a third seat in 2007 with 2.7 quotas, but in other elections they have been stuck at around 2 quotas.

    So the question is whether you think the next election or two will break 4-2 right-left in Qld or 3-3.

    I think the next election is very likely to go 3-3 and it is only slightly less likely that the third left seat is Greens.
    I wouldn’t want to forecast the one after that.

  6. On Saturday, Newman sandbagged the electorates of Toowoomba South (21.6% margin) and Bundaberg (18.2% marging) – interesting that both seats are regional – instead of attending his own electorates “Meet the Candidates Community Forum”, thus giving a free kick to Kate jones. But then again Newman doesn’t live in Ashgrove and won’t even live in Queensland after Saturday. The lnp has put next to no resources into retaining Ipswich West so private party polling must be saying Ipswich West is a lost cause.

  7. Labor has come in from $9.00 to $6.00 since Friday so there is money for Labor at good odds. The LNP is still 10 to 1 on to win though and a hung parliament good odds.

  8. The polls must be being done.

    Probably they aren’t being released because the polling companies just can’t believe how bad they are for the LNP and think they must have stuffed up their processes.

  9. Things aren’t looking so good for Newman in Queensland (and Sir Phillip the Prince won’t help). Dr Paul Griffiths in the CM today:

    [After a lightning start that opened up a good lead over a Labor Party caught out by a January election, the LNP’s campaign wheels in the second week suddenly got wobbly. Last week, those wheels almost fell off as Newman hit a few potholes of his own making.

    No matter what the outcome, questions will be asked after Saturday as to how the country’s best resourced conservative outfit, furnished with the biggest parliamentary majority in Australian history, could be staring at defeat after just one term.

    If the LNP, or at least Newman, do succumb to Labor on Saturday, their tragedy will be that defeat could have been avoided so easily.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/opinion-wheels-falling-off-campbell-newmans-campaign-which-needs-to-stay-on-message-and-strategy/story-fnrab879-1227197385688

  10. Top four stories in CM online at the moment:

    How did the LNP throw it all away? (article linked at 168)
    Australians all let us recoil at PM’s knight move
    Newman’s tactic for keeping up with Jones
    Newman refuses to answer questions

    Indication of anything?

  11. davidwh

    I think the results at the major polling companies are very tightly held these days – probably only the analyst who compiled the figures and one or two top execs know the results. We rarely seem to get advance leaks these days.

    Don’t think it would be too hard to suppress as a leak could be tracked down pretty easily.

  12. Comments from the hustings

    Kate looking pretty good in Ashgrove
    Newman rarely visits and seems scared of the place
    Bogans and bimbos vote LNP
    Women are voting Labor (or at least for Kate
    Tradies and most ute owners are leaning LNP
    20-30% of car drivers are prepared to positively acknowledge ALP. Of those who do not acknowledge a fair proportion are hostile, so it seems quite polarised.

  13. Before all the conspiracy theorising begins in earnest, surely the most obvious reason for the lack of public polling is the Australia Day long weekend?

  14. Toby agree however I did expect Galaxy to run one late last week and release the results Friday or Saturday night.

    We are unlikely to get a Galaxy now until Friday I suspect.

  15. Ghost Who Votes has tweeted the results of a Galaxy NSW State poll.

    It’s very strange that a Galaxy poll was done for NSW, when the next NSW state election is a couple of months away, and no poll has apparently been done for QLD.

  16. Money still all with the LNP, so either the insiders who think it’s tightening aren’t putting their money where their leaks are, or the smart money knows something the insiders don’t.

    1.10-1.13 for the LNP, 6.00+ for Labor.

  17. [or the smart money knows something the insiders don’t.]

    It should be pointed out that the smart money isn’t always so smart. What was the smart money saying before the SA election for instance.

    In this case, I think it just reflects the fact that the most likely outcome still is a modest to good majority for the LNP.

  18. Yes, the odds were overwhelmingly in favour of the Liberals in SA immediately before the election on the basis of 52.5% TPP.

    The OPV system in Queensland might throw a similar spanner in the works as Labor’s excellent sandbagging did in SA, so there’s every chance the smart money is pretty dumb in Queensland.

  19. Everything i’ve seen of Annastacia in the press says ‘not ready’ imo. Mind you that didn’t stop a fed LNP getting elected. Maybe Qld voters can render a hung parliament? That would be a most entertaining result.

  20. Sportsbet only let me bet a measly $19.90 (why not a round $20?) on the overall result – just after the date was announced. Maybe I was too early – or maybe I made too much off them when I won a couple of grand on the size of the LNP’s majority last time (completely by fluke). In any case, the idea that there are vast amounts of money sloshing around in what is, essentially, a novelty at the furthest periphery of the bookies’ businesses ought to make you sceptical of the idea that their odds do anything more than reflect conventional wisdom – which is usually right, except when it’s wrong.

  21. One of SA’s smartest political observers – a former cabinet minister -reckons Annastacia did pretty well in her community forum debate with Newman, even though the audience proclaimed him the winner.

  22. [“Someone took to a LNP billboard in Ashgrove.”]

    What is it with leftists and vandalism? Do they think they are smart?

    I still remember the leftists vandalising multiple times a Lib billboard in Perth… they even put it on fire before the 2013 Federal Election. Of course it’s not property of the LNP, somebody else actually owns it so they were damaging someone elses property.

    Of course rather than getting support the ferals probably helped the local Lib candidate get more votes as people are turned off by such going ons.

  23. [“No matter what the outcome, questions will be asked after Saturday as to how the country’s best resourced conservative outfit, furnished with the biggest parliamentary majority in Australian history, could be staring at defeat after just one term.”]

    “No matter what the outcome”?? WTF?? Really?

    Well I guess if you have an agenda you will ignore the outcome and stick with your pre-established prejudices on what you think should or would have happened.

    If the LNP wins over 50 Seats come Saturday I think they will be happy with the result and won’t be doing any soul searching it will be Labor who failed once again to put up a credible leader.

  24. Individual seat betting has changed a little but the only seat that has moved in a meaningful way is Kalangur which is now indicating a more secure win for Labor. The LNP has actually improved slightly in some of their close seats. Betting is indicating around 50 seats for the LNP perhaps one or two less.

  25. The ABC ran a piece this morning on an academic that thought the “Just Vote 1” campaign might backfire on the Libs if Independents swap preferences and ignore the LNP.

    In such a case, the LLNP will struggle to get to 50% TPP.

  26. ltep @ 178
    [quote]”It should be pointed out that the smart money isn’t always so smart. What was the smart money saying before the SA election for instance.”[/quote]

    Another example of the smart money being really dumb:

    [quote]”Punters with ties to both sides of politics have backed John Brumby’s Labor into almost unbackable odds with leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.

    A string of bets this week, including wagers of $8000 and $7000, has seen Labor’s odds tumble from $1.30 into just $1.15 to win the November 27 Victorian election.”[/quote]

    http://www.sportsandracing.com.au/2010/11/19/smart-punters-at-sportsbet-are-wild-for-brumby/

  27. An observation of mine from the main thread:

    [I’m expecting the result in Qld to be a hung Parliament.]

    If there is a hung parliament, presumably KAP, or KAP + Ind have BoP.

    Most people presume that KAP will just go for the LNP, but actually what might be smart for them is to install an ALP government for ~1 year and then do the switcheroo to the LNP. Show the LNP they are not to be taken for granted while (mostly) keeping faith with their conservative support.

    Of course I doubt they are that smart. 😉

  28. After checking Sportsbet’s Updates the following observations are worth considering:
    The LNP are @ $1.45 or less in 39 seats plus Gaven $1.85 = 40.
    The ALP are @ $1.35 or less in 32 seats inc. Gladstone.
    The Ind in Maryborough & Nicklin and KAP in Mt. Isa and Dalrymple are all @ $1.35 or less.
    that accounts for 76 seats.
    The remaining 13 seats are showing the closest bookies margins.
    LNP @ $1.50 to $2.60 (Ferny Grove) leading in 8 seats
    ALP @ $1.45 to $2.50 (Whitsunday) leading in 5 seats.
    Swing required
    WATCH Albert 11.9%
    WATCH Ashgrove 5.7%
    WATCH Barron River 9.5%
    WATCH Broadwater 11.3%
    WATCH Ferny Grove 9.5%
    WATCH Kallangur 12.4%
    WATCH Keppel 6.4%
    WATCH Mirani 11.2%
    WATCH Mundingburra 10.2%
    WATCH Pine Rivers 13.7%
    WATCH Pumicestone 12.1%
    WATCH Toowoomba North 9.6%
    WATCH Whitsunday 10.7%
    Should preferences go against the LNP cf last election there could be a few of these that go against the bookies odds.
    The LNP require 5 of the 13 to hold power – any less and it’s a hung parliament. I don’t believe the ALP can get to 45 unoless the polls have been wrong by a couple of %.

  29. ESJ

    Just back to see you are, as usual, a NON contributer, but you love to slag off other people.

    You must have a miserable life in your self-created cesspool.

  30. Has anyone seen Anna P’s costings yet?

    Only a few days to go.. lots of promises but absolutely no way to pay for them(unless they go the usual Labor route and stick it all on the credit card for a future Lib government to pay off)

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