“Campbell Newman set to name election date as January 31”, announces today’s Courier-Mail. An election at that time of year is, to put it mildly, unorthodox, although I observe that the school holidays conclude the previous Tuesday. A bigger puzzlement is this from the report: “The minimum campaign period under Queensland law is 26 days. This means the earliest date an election could be held is on Saturday, January 31.”. But twenty-six days from today is surely February 1, which would appear to suggest February 7 as the earliest possible date. Perhaps I’m missing something.
In any case, here is a thread for discussion of today’s drama as it unfolds, as it appears it surely will.
UPDATE: Antony Green tweets there are “26 days from issue of writ (Tuesday) to polling in a Saturday”, so I guess the 26 days is inclusive of the date of issue. Perhaps I’m sleep-deprived (no perhaps about it actually), but that would seem to suggest to me that today is in fact the day after today.
UPDATE 2: Newman has certainly confirmed that he will announce the election date today, but beyond that tells us we will have to wait a few hours.
UPDATE 3: For those still curious about the election timing issue – which, judging by comments, is none of you – it turns out I needed refer only to the next section of the act along:
(2) For the purpose of determining under subsection (1) a cut-off day, the polling day or the day for the return of the writ (the relevant day)—
(a) the day of issue of the writ; and
(b) the relevant day itself;
are both to be included in any specified number of days.
One silver lining to the election being held earlier is not having to sit through tedious Dorothy Dixers during question time focusing on Queensland-centric issues.
I’m not sure the early election strategy is sound though. The voters have been known to punish parties for tricky election timing in the past.
The merging of Abbott’s face with Napthine proved to be a very effective marketing tool for Labor in the recent Victorian election. Looks like it might be getting a face change for the Queensland campaign.
https://twitter.com/GailHislopALP/status/552083212713746434/photo/1
I think part of the reason Newman is going early is the Kate Jones factor.
She is on holidays (or was) and probably he hopes to catch her napping. Unlikely.
Local Labor campaigns in Queensland have been running for months whether the media knows about it or not. Nothing much from the LNP at that local level so far apart from some reactive stuff.
With Labor and the LNP more or less level pegging on primary votes and the possibility of a lot of votes for minor parties exhausting in the optional preferential system, the result is highly unpredictable.
A question for contemplation: will the PUP seek to direct preferences and, if so, to whom? My guess is that Mr Palmer will hold off answering this until the legal deadline for HTV lodgement with the ECQ, to discourage the majors from attacking until late in the campaign. I would further expect him to mix them up, going against LNP people who have crossed him, for LNP people he likes (if any) and possibly to the ALP in a few other close seats. (Maybe the PUP vote will go through the floor, but if it’s 50/50 overall, PUP preferences could still be important in the closest seats.)
dtt:
[She is on holidays (or was) and probably he hopes to catch her napping. Unlikely]
The Governor is also out of town. Not that it makes a difference, because I gather the Chief Justice can step in. Odd though…
he’s absolutely going to lose ashgrove, so Im curious as to what Newman’s personal back-up plan might be.
He’ll be unemployed the day after the election – whether the LNP wins or loses.
Perhaps with the CJ issuing the writs how many days are supposed to elapse becomes quite irrelevant.
Maybe he’s rushing it while Abbott’s in Iraq – so the PM cant turn up and ‘help’.
Genius move to run on privatisation – talk about electoral poison!
When are the major parties going to realise that privatisation is over as far as the electorate is concerned. Theyre convinced is no good for them – policy elites need to catch up.
Anyway, my early pick:
My guess with a 73-seat margin is that the LNP will hang on – but Newman will lose his seat and be unemployed on Feb 1. I suspect he’s been pushed to go early by panicking figures in the LNP exec looking at recent polls and worrying itll only get worse under Abbott.
That said, running on privatisation is an odd choice anywhere in Australia, and more like a death wish in QLD where huge numbers of conservatives also like their State big andstrongly involved in the economy.
Be interesting to see how KAT, PUP and ONP perform in the regions.
There’s been a big discussion about Asset Recycling, which I think is a saleable idea in Australia. I can see the public buying (he he) the idea that you sell one old asset, like electricity poles, to buy some new modern asset. The gist could work.
But the QLDers seem to want to focus mainly on debt reduction. Take it from me, the amount they intend to put towards debt reduction ($25b) is actually vastly in excess of the amount necessary to reclaim AAA.
This is Kevin Bonham’s recent analysis of polling in Queensland:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/queensland-beautiful-one-day-lineball.html
[Estimated Queensland state 2PP based on late 2014 polling: 50.1-49.9 to ALP
LNP would probably retain office in an election “held now”, but would be fairly likely to lose majority
(This is not a prediction of the election result yet, as voting intentions may change)]
When you consider that the voting public are not going to be too happy having the last days of their summer holidays invaded by political advertising and political hyperbolic rhetoric, Campbell must have been desperate. One can only imagine what the LNP internal polling trends are showing.
[here’s been a big discussion about Asset Recycling, which I think is a saleable idea in Australia. I can see the public buying (he he) the idea that you sell one old asset, like electricity poles, to buy some new modern asset. The gist could work.]
No it doesn’t really work at all unless you don’t need the ‘old’ power poles and then you can’t really sell them.
In terms of a sale if the ‘new’ asset is on people are prepared to pay for they might accept the much greater risks and costs associated with privatizing the ‘old’ asset they still need. But like labors attempt to link the MRRT to spending areas to sell it – you are easentially lying. The govt can still do new without throwing billions / millions of public dollars in private hands for the old asset.
Not a big fan of Queensland style of elections with OPV, but with PUP, they could either say preference whoever you want, or say “just vote 1 PUP”. Same goes with any other minor parties.
Jeff Seeney to be our next premier. Personally I would prefer Nichols but it won’t happen.
and keep Abbott overseas until first February 🙁
So Ali Newman and his 78 thieves wish to sneak back into power while nobody is watching. A bit like their modus operandi in government I suppose.
I do not know if Anna Paluszczuk will be Queensland’s next premier, but on current polls, and after this stunt, it will not be Newman. If voters want to end the uncertainty, they should vote Labor.
TPOF, I wondered about the timing. My thought was that there was internal polling showing an uptick in LNP support (at least in Ashgrove), following the Xmas/NY season. Maybe people were still in a holiday mood (or food coma).
davidwh
[Jeff Seeney to be our next premier. Personally I would prefer Nichols but it won’t happen.]
Nichols is just as nasty as Seeney. Dealt with him back in his Brisbane City Council days.
I doubt we will know the real mood in QLD until people have to make a real choice. Basically I think there disappointment with a number of key things the QLD government did particularly with the legal appointments, tinkering with the CMC and the way they treated doctors. Offsetting this is the realisation that other key issues such as health and the budget needed to be fixed
I expect Newman will pay the price for the disappointments but the government may get re-elected. I don’t think we are yet fully prepared to forgive Labor for the mess they created up to 2012.
But will the polls at 50/50 anything is possible including a hung parliament.
Rumour has it on Twitter that the reason Newman has pulled the pin on the election today is that he wasn’t likely to last the week as leader.
Not sure if that is true or not, but it does feed nicely into the general feeling right now that this is a decision designed to achieve the following points:
– stem the loss of seats, which has been growing in volume for some time now
– avoid the “Abbott factor”, since he won’t have a chance to even be involved at this rate
– try and catch the ALP “off guard”, without realising that the ALP have been running their low-level grassroots campaign for quite some time now
My gut instinct is that the LNP will retain power with this election, but I think it will be only just. I can easily see the ALP picking up 25-30 seats without really trying with this election, which will put them in spitting distance of an outright victory in 2018.
One of those seats will almost certainly be Ashgrove, which I think the LNP will be happy to lose – means that they can sacrifice Newman to the electorate, use it as a major symbol of a post-election message “We’ve heard you. We know you did not like some of what we did last term. We accept that, and we promise New Leadership going forward”.
January just got a whole lot more interesting…
MK:
[January just got a whole lot more interesting…]
Ain’t that the truth. The rumour re Newman being thrown under a bus has a certain intuitive appeal.
[One of those seats will almost certainly be Ashgrove, which I think the LNP will be happy to lose – means that they can sacrifice Newman to the electorate, use it as a major symbol of a post-election message “We’ve heard you. We know you did not like some of what we did last term. We accept that, and we promise New Leadership going forward”.]
I agree and it’s a pity the A-G won’t go along with Newman but he has a safe seat.
Could a Queenslander in the know please give a brief thumbnail sketch of the Labor leader?
Is she a good campaigner? Good on TV? Good at delivering a simple message? Any major negatives from her time as a Bligh government minister?
Back in March/April 2012, who could have possibly imagined that, less than 3 years on, the very notion of a LNP defeat is being seriously contemplated. It probably won’t happen, but for the LNP to have pissed the last 3 years against the wall… Amazing.
[The rumour re Newman being thrown under a bus has a certain intuitive appeal.]
He has only put it off until the end of the month 🙂
You probably don’t want to know what I think of Anastasia alias.
I will only say I have never heard her make a positive statement in her time as OL. She reminds me of Abbott so it may work for her.
GG @2:
Didn’t Labor try personal attacks on Newman last election? As I recall, it backfired rather spectacularly – you’ve got more than enough to go after him on re: policy, no need for cheap theatre linking him to Abbott.
The other issue I have with Queensland’s system is that unless it’s a hung parliamentary, no matter how big or small the swing, it is a majority, as there is no upper house to deal with.
MK@23
I commented on the new general thread that this bizarre theory (no more bizarre than dumping AP though) seems actually to be the most logical available.
I am reminded of the Sherlock Holmes dictum that whenever you have removed the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
It makes a lot of sense to me that Newman would rather lose his seat as sitting Premier than be unceremoniously dumped just before an election – regardless of the impact on the party.
That man has a huge ego (like a certain Labor leader from the same general location) that can easily put himself above his party.
31
That is another reason that Queensland is the Australian mainland state most in need of the introduction of proportional representation.
Election cliche check list:
– This will be the most important election in years.
– This is a Seinfeld election.
– This will come down to the wire/Election on a knife edge etc.
From Crikey tips & rumours today…
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/01/06/tips-and-rumours-1279/
[Tips and rumours
JAN 06, 2015 1:26PM
………
Queensland leadership: part one. As we press publish today, we hope that Crikey readers are not at all surprised by Queensland Premier Campbell Newman officially announcing a snap January 31 election — we had a tip late last year that it would be soon, as the Electoral Commission of Queensland had already taken out a three-month software contract. Before the news broke last night that the election would be sooner than others thought, we received this tip from someone who is less than sanguine about Newman’s chances of remaining premier and in parliament:
“Queensland political powerbroker Santo Santoro has switched his patronage from long time protege Treasurer Tim Nicholls and is now supporting Lawrence Springborg, for the premiership, after the next Queensland election. It’s now accepted political wisdom within the LNP that Campbell Newman cannot retain his seat of Ashgrove — everyone in the party believes that, except Newman. Springborg, who lost three elections on the trot as LNP leader (2004, 2006 and 2009), may finally get his wish of becoming premier, if the LNP manage to retain government. Springborg has been ably assisted in recent months by Ten News Brisbane refugees Cathy Border and Cathie Schnitzerling, who have joined his office as senior media advisers.”
We called Santoro, who declined to comment on the rumour. It seems that this election will only be part one of an exciting year for the sunshine state.
Queensland leadership: part two. The hapless Liberal National Party aren’t the only ones looking towards the looming Queensland state election with fear and loathing. Labor, faced with the unlikely though real prospect that they may make the largest majority in Australian political history a one-term government, now have a leader who no one thought would ever be premier. Annastacia Palaszczuk got the gig the way women usually do in the ALP — the situation was so screwed up they needed someone to take the fall. Now Palaszczuk may break the tape — in which case she would be beholden to no one, especially the all-powerful AWU. Labor might just be quietly hoping that Campbell can do one more election victory, so tha bruvvers can have their party back.]
Leroy – Picking up that final point, might Palaszluk survive the election as leader even if she loses, a la Abbott 2010?
Surely whatever happens from here the result is going to be far better for the ALP than anyone would have dared to dream three years ago…
[ in which case she would be beholden to no one, especially the all-powerful AWU. Labor might just be quietly hoping that Campbell can do one more election victory, so tha bruvvers can have their party back.]
Or they could just dump her like they did Rudd and say they couldn’t work with her terrible dis functional office.
The ALP is really a bad joke living off a proud history and the fact the LNP and greens are so extreme. That and the small fact a real community based progressive party couldn’t afford to take on both big business and the unions.
This is the first state election in January since 1913 in Tasmania.
http://elections.uwa.edu.au/listelections.lasso?skiprecords=200
The only other January general election being in New South Wales in 1858.
http://elections.uwa.edu.au/listelections.lasso?skiprecords=300
Interestingly a couple of Victorian elections have been between Christmas and New year but not since women got the vote intentionally and permanently but both after women who were ratepayers accidentally got given the vote and had it taken away. The first election between Christmas and New Year was the election after women ratepayers had voted and the second was the election before women were given the vote on an equal and permanent basis. Quite the coincidence.
According to Sky News’ Laura Jayes in her commentary just then, there is a “100% chance that the LNP will retain government”.
MATTHEW – Does the fact that Newman hasn’t been able to slide into a new seat suggest that he is not particularly strong in his party at the moment (and was heading for the exit) or is it just stubbornness (stupidity) on his part?
When was the last time a premier announced an election via twitter?
@40 – I think it’s a combination of both, really. It’s accepted political wisdom that he was only ever brought on board in the first place to try and win the SE QLD seats the LNP needed to form Government, following his track record as a popular Lord Mayor.
He was in the same situation that Kevin Rudd was in at a Federal level – only ever useful to the party itself while he was polling well. Now that the polls have turned, from what I understand a lot of people within the LNP are blaming him for it, and are more than happy to use him as a scapegoat in the event of an LNP win but a loss in Ashgrove.
Glory @ 39
If the suggestion that Newman called an election at this bizarre time in order to wrong-foot his own side of politics who were moving to dump him then the chance of Labor winning has gone from 5% in my opinion to at least 30%.
The biggest problem Labor had was how few front benchers they had to fight on policy. This problem will be heavily reduced if the LNP strategy is a mess and if the leader has already been written off by the party.
Truly bizarre….
I wonder if this early call is only because of Queensland issues? Perhaps Can’tDo fears that when the federal Libs meet before the federal Parliament meets the Tony/Julie/Joe show will blow up and damage the Liberal brand generally?
I saw this post on the News Corpse website. I wonder how many other rusted on conservative voters are thinking along the same lines.
“I have voted Tory all my life (over 40 years) and since Tony Abbott and Campbell Newman have come to power I have never had greater regret and such a compelling urge to vote them out when I get the chance. Newman’s reliance on speed cameras to get the State out of debt and at the same time wasting huge amounts of money on self-serving “community advertising” extolling the virtues of the Government absolutely astounds me. Although I do not want to see Labor get in and stuff the place up again, the quandary is do we want to continue living in a State that is run like a dictatorship with scant regard for human decencies and common sense. Nope, Campbell, I hope you lose your seat and Government on 31 January. Will I vote Tory again? Yes, most probably once I have vented my spleen on the two most hopeless cases to run the country and this State and some sanity prevails in both major parties where people are listened to rather than dictated and lied to.”
DavidWH
“You probably don’t want to know what I think of Anastasia
alias.””
You all ways had a Liberal bent so I am not surprised!.
@44 – Yes, TPOF, I think that is a sentiment shared by a lot of rusted-on Tories in Queensland. This is what will make the situation so interesting on January 31 – there’s virtually no way I can see the swing being large enough to deliver the ALP an outright majority, but what WILL be interesting to see is how large the swing in general is, and what this means for the returned LNP Government.
When the only reason you will retain power is the size of your seat number, you know you’re doing something wrong…
TPOF:
That comment sounds like something my father would’ve written, although he was turned off voting Liberal by the Howard govt. He in no way approves of Abbott’s or Newman’s mobs.
[1934pc
Posted Tuesday, January 6, 2015 at 2:47 pm | Permalink
DavidWH
“You probably don’t want to know what I think of Anastasia
alias.””
You all ways had a Liberal bent so I am not surprised!. ]
David also has (had?) a high opinion of Arthur Sinodonis so I’m sure we can rely on his judgement 🙂
David was also a staunch defender of the Newman Government in its early days and we know how that all panned out. Truly one of the worst governments I can recall.