The situation in general

An open thread.

It’s past time for a new open thread, despite the want of new polling to hang one off. Do observe there are thread below for the New South Wales and Queensland state elections, for those of you who like that sort of thing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,776 thoughts on “The situation in general”

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  2. The conservative view: “self-sufficiency” is a byword for affluence, which then has moral superiority conferred upon it

    There’s nothing moral about making a promise, the moral part is in keeping it, which 42% of married people don’t. Arguably, cohabiting couples are more moral than married ones, never making the promise in the first place that, most people agree and 42% prove, is rather unrealistic. In many cases, the so-called stability conferred by marriage is indistinguishable from that bestowed by wealth, which has itself become a major determinant of people’s decision to get married. But the critical contradiction, the bit I really cannot compute, is the idea of marriage as at once a moral choice and an insurance policy. It’s one or the other, surely? The abnegation of the self in the search for true togetherness, or a bid for your spouse’s income: how can it be both?

    A conservative would see no contradiction, here: to have taken out the insurance policy of marriage is to have assured one’s self-sufficiency, thus protecting the state from its otherwise 400k liability (that figure does seem improbably high, but let’s go with it). Self-sufficiency is a moral act, to a conservative. In practical terms, this is nonsense; you may have left a copper-bottomed marriage, but if you weren’t rich to begin with, it is highly unlikely that your family earnings will expand to cover two households. Forty-two per cent of single parents live in poverty, 63% have no savings, 71% of all those renting are on housing benefit; so “self-sufficiency” is a byword for affluence, which then has moral superiority conferred upon it.

    This is a recurring motif in the political mood music, cropping up in discussions from marriage to poverty to growth. The view from the right is that the ultimate in respectability is to need nothing from anyone: to which the left generally answers, self-sufficiency is about systems, and in the current system, it is very hard to be self-sufficient, however hard you work. But perhaps the question should be: what’s so wrong with needing one another in the first place?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/05/divorce-day-marriage-myths

  3. The Murdoch Running dogs are flummoxed

    TONY ABBOTT has left the door open to boosting Australia’s commitment to “knock off” ISIS in Iraq, but has refused to allow the media to scrutinise his first visit to the country.

    The Prime Minister excluded Australian media from his secret trip to Baghdad on the advice of diplomats.

    A News Corp Australia photographer and pool TV crew travelled to Dubai on Saturday to link up with Mr Abbott’s program, starting on Sunday.

    They only found out he had headed to Iraq after wire reports and images emerged from Mr Abbott’s meeting with his counterpart Haider al-Abadi.

    “No Australian media was allowed to cover the [Baghdad

    visit,” Mr Abbott’s spokeswoman said.

    The travelling media representatives were not told about the Iraq leg of the trip due to what the Prime Minister’s staff said was a “heightened security risk” in Baghdad and the fact that he was travelling outside the international or ‘green’ zone.

    “No media are allowed outside the international zone in Baghdad,’’ the spokeswoman said.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/world/australian-media-excluded-from-accompanying-the-prime-minister-on-his-first-visit-to-iraq/story-fni0xs63-1227175181802

  5. Regarding the news item last night about a Mildura business being investigated for paying fruit pickers around 0.60c per hour on top of sexual/bullying allegations it now appears that Costa a fruit grower in Tasmania is in trouble as well for favouring imported workers over locals.

    If it is the same Costa as the Frank Costa ’empire’ in Geelong it will be very embarrassing for this individual.

    But of course that is inline with the Abbott government’s mantra. Furthermore the number of people that have applied for jobs in both cases will be noted by the Govt’s response along the lines of ‘well obviously the ‘market’ is accepting low conditions based on the number of people applying… if there was no-one applying then the companies would have to offer a better deal but as there are plenty of applicants then that is obviously acceptable’

  7. Morning all.

    Australia’s chief executives want urgent changes to how the Senate is elected and longer terms for the House of Representatives.

    Morale among Australia’s business leaders, which peaked in late 2013 when Prime Minister Tony Abbott was elected after six years of Labor power, has been hit by the inability of the ­Coalition government to get major changes through the Senate that could lift the economy’s performance.

    The rising business frustration at the impact of minor parties on policy and the inability of Mr Abbott to fulfil his electoral mandate is revealed in the 2015Chanticleer CEO Outlook survey.

    http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/ceos_call_for_senate_overhaul_uqg6M3QEqft4p7oEAOCeHO

    They also want voluntary voting and five year fixed terms. IOW big business isn’t getting everything it wants from the Liberals in govt so it instead wants the govt to change the electoral rules to make Abbott’s term in office longer, and to make it harder for micro parties to be elected (this last point btw I agree with).

  8. The rising business frustration at the impact of minor parties on policy and the inability of Mr Abbott to fulfil his electoral mandate

    Abbott’s ‘electoral mandate’. Oh that’s just hilarious. The policies blocked in the Senate include those that Abbott never took to the last election. Mandate my arse.

  9. kakuru:

    And why is business whingeing when it’s gotten most things it wanted, and of those that couldn’t get through the Senate, the govt implemented them via amending the regulations!

  11. ABC online has story repeating Abbott’s usual claims speaking in Abu Dhabi:

    Tony Abbott says fighting IS keeps ‘Australians safe at home’ on visit to United Arab Emirates

  12. last year the major polling organisations didn’t resume work until the second half of February last year (10 Feb for newspoll) – so if a Queensland election is called shortly it will cut a few holidays breaks short including that of abbott, because they will be focusing on Federal implication for the looming state elections.

    About time abbott was shirt fronted on running off and trying his hardest to implicate us further in another war instead of addressing his problems at home – so many of which are of his own making.

  13. I think it is important for the broader Labor cause that the party should not win the Queensland election. (Not that it’s realistically very likely at all.) Victoria was a stunning result and a significant contributor to a massive ramping up of the unease among the federal Coalition.

    But the problem with winning Queensland, if that were to happen, is that it might somehow serve as a safety valve to release some of the hostility towards the Abbott government.

    In other words, with Labor governments in South Australia, Victoria and Queensland (and with Labor looking a bit more respectable in NSW with a promising-looking new leader there), the average punter might somehow imagine that the scales were tilting somewhat back in Labor’s direction; and that it would therefore be more palatable to give Abbott the traditional second chance come September next year or whenever it is.

  14. lizzie

    In principal, I agree. I’d prefer that the BOP in the Senate not be determined by individuals that garner only only a tiny proportion of the primary vote, but arrive there by some stochastic quirk of preference flows.

  17. Dow plunges 331 points as oil falls below $50

    It’s quite the sobering Monday on Wall Street as many traders and investors return from their holiday hiatus.

    The Dow plunged 331 points, and stock markets around the world fell sharply.

    What’s going on? The main culprits of market jitters these days are falling oil prices and the souring global economy. Crude oil now trades at below $50 — another psychological threshold for the market.

    Experts now predict oil could go as low as $40 or even $30 a barrel. While that’s great for U.S. consumers, who are enjoying gas prices of $2 or less not seen since the worst of the Great Recession, there comes a point when sustained low prices begin to really hurt energy company stocks and jobs in the U.S. and other countries around the world.

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/05/investing/stocks-market-fall-oil/index.html?section=money_markets&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_markets+%28Markets%29

  18. The view from the right is that the ultimate in respectability is to need nothing from anyone: to which the left generally answers

    True self-sufficiency involves producing by yourself all of the goods and services needed to support your living. That is very difficult to do amid today’s expectations of high consumption, modern medicine and whatnot. Conservatives don’t seem to understand that we are all interdependent, and this should be reflected in our social and economic policies.

  20. Self-refinement through the wisdom of the ages: 15 resolutions for 2015 from some of humanity’s greatest minds / Maria Popova: http://www.brainpickings.org/2015/01/05/resolutions/

    At the outset of each new year, humanity sets out to better itself as we resolve to eradicate our unhealthy habits and cultivate healthy ones. But while the most typical New Year’s resolutions tend to be about bodily health, the most meaningful ones aim at a deeper kind of health through the refinement of our mental, spiritual, and emotional habits — which often dictate our physical ones. In a testament to young Susan Sontag’s belief that rereading is an act of rebirth, I have revisited the timelessly rewarding ideas of great thinkers from the past two millennia to cull fifteen such higher-order resolutions for personal refinement.

  21. alias @ 13

    I agree. Victoria was a good win and probably expected however a better result would be for the ALP and Australia as a whole would be a decisive swing (say 10%) back to the ALP from the Newman Govt in several key seats including the rural heartland. Furthermore I’d like to see minor parties such as Katter and PUP given their marching orders although I have to say Katter AP is probably the best of the fringe element.

    The cream on the cake would be Newman losing Ashgrove with a massive swing.

    This would make the Feds very very nervous indeed and probably look at a spill before the NSW poll OR another reshuffle or budget rethink.

  22. alias

    Posted Tuesday, January 6, 2015 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    I think it is important for the broader Labor cause that the party should not win the Queensland election

    Sorry alias, I for one am not prepared to sacrifice my self for any broader Labor cause. Doing my best to get rid of Newman.

  23. Labor might, just might get across the line in Qld, but claiming the scalp of Newman looks achievable atm.

    Foley in NSW may win back more seats then robertson may have, but a Labor win looks unlikely. Hopefully they will be able to block the tories in the upper house on some of the woeful stuff they plan.

  24. The business CEO’s are doing their bit to help Abbott bully the Senate.

    The right still not getting it. Trying bully tactics has not worked for the PM. CEO’s blaming Senators for Abbott failure to negotiate will only get Senators backs up.

    Senators could be less likely to listen to these CEO’s in future lobbying as a result and that is an own goal for those CEO’s given Senate terms

  25. If the Qld election is announced for end of Jan, when will the electoral rolls close? Will people still be away on holidays?

  26. Dave

    My hope for NSW is Shooters and Fishers losing and Labor and Greens getting the balance of power in the upper house.

    I think you are correct about the lower house

  28. Just to add another ‘workers being exploited’ story to the mix —

    A BUSINESSMAN with a history of exploiting and underpaying trolley collectors has been fined almost $40,000 for his latest offences.

    Nick Iksidis’ company Xidis Pty Ltd was fined $120,000 in 2008 for underpaying 42 Albury trolley collectors a total of $102,724.

    I’m pleased to hear the latter – I lobbyed on this issue during the 2007 election campaign, but was told that the case had been dropped for lack of evidence.

    Overnight, the company replaced the disabled workers it had been employing with African workers. As these workers spoke no English (and noone was even sure which language they did speak) it was difficult to find out what employment conditions they were working under. Further, the company provided them with housing, so they were basically supervised at all times.

    It was very much an object lesson in how to get around employment regulations, so I’m pleased that the authorities apparently managed to do so.

    That followed fines in 2007 after Xidis failed to pay Melbourne trolley collectors a total of $3523 in wages and entitlements.

    Xidis Pty Ltd, which traded as Effective Supermarket Services, and Mr Iksidis have again been penalised for exploiting trolley workers after legal action by the Fair Work Ombudsman.

    Mr Iksidis was fined $39,600 after 12 foreign workers were not paid anything for 11 days of work at the Costco shopping centre at Lidcombe in western Sydney in 2011.

    The Federal Circuit Court in Sydney imposed the fine, which Judge Michael Lloyd-Jones said was the maximum amount he could hand down.

    “The person who should have been the best informed and appropriately the most cautious in respect of the appropriate remuneration of employees was Mr Iksidis,” Judge Lloyd-Jones said.

    “I believe that the maximum penalty for each contravention should be imposed.”

    They should have been paid more than $27,000 for the work.

    Trolley collecting and cleaning company Jay Group Services Pty Ltd was also fined $109,725 after being subcontracted by Xidis.

    Jay Group general manger Jatinder Singh was fined $23,760 and employee Tejinder Singh Sandhu fined $17,160.

    The fines totalled more than $190,000.

    It would appear that not only the fines, but the penalties for repeat behaviour need to be beefed up.

    If Mr Iksidis had defrauded another company in the way he defrauded his workers, he would probably be in jail.

    He certainly shouldn’t be allowed to be running a business.

  31. kevjonno @ 22 (and alias)

    There is too much perceived wisdom about on the mind of the voter as we do the human thing and look for patterns. I think the result of the Qld election will have less to do with the attitude to the Federal Government than Victoria did.

    Newman’s three years have enabled Queenslanders to get a pretty clear idea of what they think of him and I suspect that, across the board, the electorate will vote on their perceptions of his government, rather than with an eye to smacking Abbott around the chops. There will be minor exceptions. Labor would be stupid if it did not play the GST card – ‘Newman will agree to increase the GST, which is what Abbott wants, but Labor will not’.

    But overall, there is enough to hate about Newman to not need Abbott in the background to make you vote against his party.

  32. TPOF

    Abbott is Newman Federally. Queenslanders know best about the punish the poor reward the rich LNP DNA having suffered longer

  33. zoomster at 28

    “If Mr Iksidis had defrauded another company in the way he defrauded his workers, he would probably be in jail.”

    If Mr Iksidis was a union official, Abbott would call a royal commission in order to ensure that all employers are tarred with the same brush and there would be hysteria in the Australian and in the peanut gallery on the News Corpse websites about union brutality.

  34. Zoomster @ 28

    Mr Iksidis appears to be in trouble on several fronts including ASIC according to some quick searches I have done. I think any company that is associated with companies that underpay either implicit or otherwise should be named and shamed.

    Therefore Costco and others should be embarrassed.

    Any company or organisation that tenders out services be it cleaning to catering to whatever should include in their tender documents non-negotiables such as paying staff award rates etc etc

  36. I don’t see how Labor winning in Qld is a bad thing. It may or may not influence the federal scene, but similar to NSW, federal Labor/Greens don’t need to win the next election to keep the Cons under control, they just have to win upper house.

  37. ABC online has story repeating Abbott’s usual claims speaking in Abu Dhabi:

    Tony Abbott says fighting IS keeps ‘Australians safe at home’ on visit to United Arab Emirates

    Don’t laugh. There ARE people out there who believe this crap.

    I was speaking to a woman yesterday – just an ordinary Westie type with a job in the checkouts at the local IGA – who sincerely believe that “They” are coming to “Take over Australia”.

    When pressed about their capacity to defeat us by force of arms, she switches to “They’ll breed us out”. She thinks that there is a concerted effort on behalf of Muslim Mums and Dads to have so many children that eventually we will be swamped by Islamic State/Caliphate zombies, who will then impose sharia law on us all.

    When I suggested that they would have to take over Parliament first, she cited “halal laws” that have been passed to make “Them” happy. In any case, when “They” are strong enough they will just burn parliament down and “fly that black flag They have” atop it.

    I told her that the First World War was, in part, against the old Muslim Caliphate (the official Caliph was head of the Ottoman Empire), and even though we lost at Gallipoli “They” still didn’t come here and take over.

    Ah yes, but we didn’t allow “Them” to come here in The Boats then, did we?

    At this point I adjourned the conversation and walked off with my dog, he having finished his wee-wee on the plant next to us.

    I doesn’t matter what you say to people with this mindset. They will always find a reason to hate The Other.

  38. guytaur @ 32

    I agree. Newman was the argument against voting Coalition in the 2013 Federal election. Except not enough Queenslanders saw the likeness. Mind you, Abbott has been astonishing in his stupidity. He has tried to do what Newman did and forgot Newman did not have an upper house to contend with.

    My point is that Newman and his Government are clearly known quantities and most voters will have already made up their minds. Those that have not will unlikely be influenced by a desire to send a message to Abbott, because if you are going to do that you are not voting for Newman anyway.

  40. BB @ 37

    That conversation could form the outline of a Samuel Becket or Eugene Ionescu play.

    I particularly liked the bit about burning down the parliament and THEN flying the black flag atop it.

  41. Another point about Abbott in the Middle East. I have not heard Abbott say anything about the fires and people losing their homes.

    Did I miss it?

  42. mr Iksidis is undoubtedly a battling small business owner doing his bit to rescue Australia from Labor’s debt and deficit disaster who found himself overwhelmed by red tape in dealing with fair work Australia, the carbon tax and the mining tax.

    If only the minor parties in the senate would get out of the way and let the Tories get on with business and creating jobs … not jobs where you get paid, but a job nevertheless.

  43. “Since 2002, Australia has recorded seven of its 10 warmest years on record.

    In that time, only 2011 was cooler than average.”

    So in 13 years, 7 were among the hottest in 104 years and only one was cooler than average.

    Short summary here: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/2014-was-australias-third-warmest-year-bom/218177

    More detail here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/

    The pattern is unmistakeable. If nothing was changing, warm years would be balanced by cool years and average years. This has not been happening for a while. And yes, to any deniers, the Bureau knows about the urban heat island effect. These measurements are based upon a network of quality long record stations away from the bright city lights.

  44. guytaur

    I heard nothing either re the fires from Abbott. I seriously dont think people in Australia are at all focussed on iraq

  46. federal Labor/Greens don’t need to win the next election to keep the Cons under control, they just have to win upper house.

    Not really very likely given that at the next election on the half of the senators elected at the 2010 election will be up for election again (plus territory senators). 2010 was a fairly good Senate result for the ALP/Greens (in particular, the Greens). I’d say Labor will hold all their Senate seats won in 2010, although Tasmania could be a spoiler potentially. It’ll be interesting for the Greens in South Australia (vs a Xenophon candidate), New South Wales and Queensland.

  47. BB

    It’s easier for some people to blame their lack of success in life on someone else (‘the boat people have taken all the jobs…’ is preferable to ‘I’m unemployable).

  50. Experts now predict oil could go as low as $40 or even $30 a barrel. While that’s great for U.S. consumers, who are enjoying gas prices of $2 or less not seen since the worst of the Great Recession

    What a croc of rubbish; I’ve seen gas prices of 36 cents a gallon in australia and I was not alive for the graet depression.

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