Update: Morgan SMS poll (October 1)
Morgan conducted SMS polls of voting intention for each state over the weekend, the Queensland component of which captured 1190 respondents and found the LNP on 42%, Labor on 35.5%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6.5% and Katter’s Australian Party on 2.5%, with the LNP leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There’s also a 50-50 result on preferred premier.
Rather than break open a new thread for Newspoll, I’m revising this post to accommodate the quarterly state voting intention result from Newspoll. It records a sharp move in favour of Campbell Newman’s government, which now leads 54-46 after trailing 51-49 last time, more than cancelling out a 3% move to Labor in the previous poll. This is the LNP’s best headline two-party result since a Galaxy poll in March. Interestingly, the change is entirely down to a shift from “others”, which swelled from 15% to 24% last time and is now back down to 18%, to the LNP, up from 32% to 39%. Labor is down two to 32%, but the Greens are up two to 10%. Campbell Newman has improved slightly from his worst-ever result last time, up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ratings are little changed at 36% apiece, which is up one on approval and down one on disapproval. Newman’s lead as preferred premier widens from 39-35 to 41-35.
It being the end of the year’s third quarter, we can presumably expect a Western Australian state voting intention result soon to go with the ones we have from Queensland and South Australia, as well as the quarterly breakdowns of federal voting intention by stage, age and gender.
With Kate Jones confirming her intention to run again in Ashgrove, which she lost to Campbell Newman at the 2012 state election, ReachTEL has rushed into the field at the behest of the Seven Network to conduct an automated phone poll of 631 respondents. This confirms the picture of previous polling in showing Newman to be in all sorts of trouble, with Kate Jones gathering 52.2% of the primary vote and Campbell Newman on 41.1%. Jones appears to have sucked up any potential oxygen from the Greens, on 3.5%, and the electorate is not the natural territory of Palmer United, which scores 1.7%. As such, the two-party preferred result closely reflects the primary vote split in having Labor leading 56-44. Further questions find Jones far more popular personally than Newman, with ratings of 58.2% favourable and 25.8% unfavourable compared with 34.0% and 52.9% for Newman. Fifty-one per cent said the Newman government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected, compared with 41% who felt otherwise. Newman is nonetheless far the preferred leader for the LNP on 42.5%, with Lawrence Springborg on 19.3% and John-Paul Langbroek on 13.3%.