Newspoll: 54-46 to LNP in Queensland; ReachTEL: 56-44 to Labor in Ashgrove

A new poll finds Campbell Newman in all sorts of trouble in his seat of Ashgrove, as the contest sharpens with Kate Jones’s announcement of her intention to run as Labor’s candidate.

Update: Morgan SMS poll (October 1)

Morgan conducted SMS polls of voting intention for each state over the weekend, the Queensland component of which captured 1190 respondents and found the LNP on 42%, Labor on 35.5%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6.5% and Katter’s Australian Party on 2.5%, with the LNP leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There’s also a 50-50 result on preferred premier.

Update: Newspoll

Rather than break open a new thread for Newspoll, I’m revising this post to accommodate the quarterly state voting intention result from Newspoll. It records a sharp move in favour of Campbell Newman’s government, which now leads 54-46 after trailing 51-49 last time, more than cancelling out a 3% move to Labor in the previous poll. This is the LNP’s best headline two-party result since a Galaxy poll in March. Interestingly, the change is entirely down to a shift from “others”, which swelled from 15% to 24% last time and is now back down to 18%, to the LNP, up from 32% to 39%. Labor is down two to 32%, but the Greens are up two to 10%. Campbell Newman has improved slightly from his worst-ever result last time, up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ratings are little changed at 36% apiece, which is up one on approval and down one on disapproval. Newman’s lead as preferred premier widens from 39-35 to 41-35.

It being the end of the year’s third quarter, we can presumably expect a Western Australian state voting intention result soon to go with the ones we have from Queensland and South Australia, as well as the quarterly breakdowns of federal voting intention by stage, age and gender.

Original post

With Kate Jones confirming her intention to run again in Ashgrove, which she lost to Campbell Newman at the 2012 state election, ReachTEL has rushed into the field at the behest of the Seven Network to conduct an automated phone poll of 631 respondents. This confirms the picture of previous polling in showing Newman to be in all sorts of trouble, with Kate Jones gathering 52.2% of the primary vote and Campbell Newman on 41.1%. Jones appears to have sucked up any potential oxygen from the Greens, on 3.5%, and the electorate is not the natural territory of Palmer United, which scores 1.7%. As such, the two-party preferred result closely reflects the primary vote split in having Labor leading 56-44. Further questions find Jones far more popular personally than Newman, with ratings of 58.2% favourable and 25.8% unfavourable compared with 34.0% and 52.9% for Newman. Fifty-one per cent said the Newman government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected, compared with 41% who felt otherwise. Newman is nonetheless far the preferred leader for the LNP on 42.5%, with Lawrence Springborg on 19.3% and John-Paul Langbroek on 13.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

25 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46 to LNP in Queensland; ReachTEL: 56-44 to Labor in Ashgrove”

  3. What’s the bet that some safe-seated Brisbane-based LNP MP retires and Newman jumps seats?

    Newman has constantly stated he will contest Ashgrove, his pride will not let him move.

  4. 3

    As soon as nominations close the ALP should run a massive “Who will be premier if the LNP win and Newman looses” campaign. Preferably with unpopular LNP figures as the options?

  5. Newman has constantly stated he will contest Ashgrove, his pride will not let him move.

    Oh dear!

    Well, there’s a way for QLDers to vote to sure the government they elect on polling day doesn’t give them a surprise Premier the next day… 😉

  6. I don’t have a lot spare cash but as soon as I got the email from the ALP looking for donations for Kate I chipped in. Getting rid of the little man is just the sort of good cause I can get behind. Hope they get a big response to this particular fund raiser.

  7. I doubt a who will be premier if Campbell loses Ashgrove scare will work this time. Most people will say we don’t care as long as it’s not Newman.

  8. I doubt a who will be premier if Campbell loses Ashgrove scare will work this time. Most people will say we don’t care as long as it’s not Newman.

    Until it’s pointed out that Seeney’s most likey alternative on the LNP side – the man can barely string a sentence together!

  9. Seeney has performed much better than I thought he would. He did particularly well in bringing some sanity back into the Newman v The Judges battle.

  11. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/campbell-newman-revives-election-hopes-with-poll-surge/story-e6frgczx-1227074428687

    Campbell Newman revives election hopes with poll surge
    The Australian September 30, 2014 12:00AM
    Michael McKenna Reporter Brisbane

    THE Liberal National Party has staged a comeback in Queensland, as Campbell Newman, going into an election year, continues to wrestle with his unpop­ularity among voters.

    Three months after a thumping by-election defeat, the Newman government has gone from trailing Labor to a now-­comfortable lead in the latest Newspoll.

    The LNP is on 54 per cent to Labor’s 46 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, with the government securing a swing of five percentage points from the last Newspoll, held at the end of June when it lost the north ­Brisbane seat of Stafford in a by-election massacre.

    The LNP primary vote has jumped seven points from a low of 32 per cent to 39 per cent. Almost all of the LNP gains appear to be at the expense of Clive Palmer’s party and other independents, who collectively have dropped about six percentage points to 18 per cent in the primary vote.

    If uniform, the Newman government still could lose more than 15 seats to Labor. The Premier’s seat of Ashgrove is on a knife edge following former environment minister Kate Jones’s confirmation she will recontest the seat she lost to Mr Newman in 2012.

    Table
    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/09/29/1227074/377894-queensland-newspoll.pdf

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-spends-80m-to-secure-campbell-newmans-seat-of-ashgrove/story-fnihsrf2-1227074458592

    LNP spends $80m to secure Campbell Newman’s seat of Ashgrove
    STEVEN WARDILL, SARAH VOGLER
    The Courier-Mail September 30, 2014 12:00AM

    THE in-joke among political types is that if there’s a state government grant Ashgrove hasn’t got, then Premier Campbell Newman doesn’t know it exists.

    New classrooms, enhanced sporting facilities, improved public transport and upgraded roads have all been funnelled into Mr Newman’s northwestern Brisbane electorate over the past 2½ years.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/campbell-newman-clawing-back-support-in-ashgrove-reachtel-poll/story-fnihsrf2-1227074330784

    Campbell Newman clawing back support in Ashgrove: ReachTEL poll
    Steven Wardill The Courier-Mail September 29, 2014 6:49PM

  12. The LNP primary vote has jumped seven points from a low of 32 per cent to 39 per cent. Almost all of the LNP gains appear to be at the expense of Clive Palmer’s party…

    But we don’t really know because Newspoll will not mention the Palmer Party in its questions. 🙁

  13. ruawake

    Campbell Newman clawing back support in Ashgrove: ReachTEL poll
    Steven Wardill The Courier-Mail September 29, 2014 6:49PM

    This sounds like spin by Newscorp. The previous poll was an outlier, and based on these polls, Newman would lose his seat still with Kate Jones securing a comfortable majority.

  15. I am not sure about the Ashgrove residents getting much. There has been an upgrade of an intersection but that was planned under.

    Public transport has got worse I believe.

    There is a development issue too that has set the cat amongst the pigeons.

  16. I second #13. The 58:42 was the single worst Ashgrove poll and these things have MOEs of around 4%. July poll with Jones hypothetically included had the same 2PP as this one.

  19. Bruce Hawker apparently said yesterday that he wasn’t inclined to believe Newspoll. I notice that the Newspoll result has gotten alot attention from other news-outlets either which points not being viewed as credible. Paul Williams has suggested that if Premier Campbell Newman does lose Ashgrove it will be a three way contest between Tim Nicholls, Scott Emerson, and David Crisafulli for the leadership. However, from what I have heard on the ground Crisafulli is likely to lose his seat at the next state election.

  20. Apropos of nothing, Tim Nicholls reminds me of Phil Lynch, the Liberal Treasurer in the first and second Fraser governments. The way they rolled their balding heads from side to side, the way their fat jowls used to wobble and how they talked in a sleep-inducing rapid monotone bear comparisons. Labor’s Barry Jones in a eulogy to Lynch used a good German descriptive that applies to both – Sitzfleisch – the grim determination to outsit anybody else. So, Big Nic is definitely my wish to be the next LNP leader. He will bore everyone senseless.

  22. Further added to the post:

    Morgan conducted SMS polls of voting intention for each state over the weekend, the Queensland component of which captured 1190 respondents and found the LNP on 42%, Labor on 35.5%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6.5% and Katter’s Australian Party on 2.5%, with the LNP leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There’s also a 50-50 result on preferred premier.

  23. As noted on my site in an update to the article I think the 2PP for LNP should be 52, though it’s all a bit rubbery in Queensland anyway.

  24. #19 – Local to Crisafulli here. With unemployment at the state highest, every business I talk to (and thats alot) in trouble. LNP wont have a seat in the greater Townsville region post election. LNP has spent their entire time looking after Brisbane and the rest of the state has noticed.

    On a wider issue where will PUP preferences flow? With a close result those preferences will really matter.

    I imagine a November election to avoid the Senate inquiry in full swing into Newmans antics.

  25. Still interested to hear post-Newman leadership analysis/information/speculation from knowledgeable/informed/opinionated Qlders.

    Will it have to be an ex-Nat or will the ex-Lib factions get a look in? If the latter then who is best placed? I’ve seen Tim Mander’s name mentioned a couple of times; why?

    (This is kind of amusing but the problem is that there is no reason for Agrarian Socialists to set aside Springborg on the basis he’s not credible enough only to support an even less credible candidate. If Bleijie is the most viable alternative tgey’d be better just sticking with the Borg and all his baggage.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/queensland-to-go-conveyancer-beige-after-newman,6948
    )

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