BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Post-MH17 polls have boosted Tony Abbott’s personal ratings and slightly improved the Coalition’s position on voting intention, although Labor remains comfortably ahead.

This week’s better-late-than-never BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading finds the MH17 effect boosting the Coalition by 1.1% on two-party preferred, and putting it two points clear of Labor on the primary vote. On the seat projection, the Coalition this week gains two in Queensland and one in every other mainland state, a net gain of six that nonetheless leaves Labor with an overall majority of 79 seats out of 150. The bigger effect is on the personal ratings, for which Newspoll contributes to a lift of nearly six points on the reading for Tony Abbott’s net approval, albeit from a dismally low base. Newspoll also causes the previously downward trend for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to level off this week, although his lead as preferred prime minister continues to narrow.

Also on the better-late-than-never front, this week’s Essential Research, which I neglected to cover on Tuesday, had the Coalition gaining a point for the second week in a row to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two on a week ago), 38% for Labor (down one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Other questions found a very healthy 67% approving of Tony Abbott’s handling of the Malaysia Airlines disaster with only 13% disapproving; Malaysia Airlines, the Malaysian government and the United Nations also credited with handling the matter well, but the Russian government not so much; 49% believing Vladimir Putin should not be allowed to attend the G20 versus 29% for should be allowed; and 62% supporting trade sanctions against Russia, 46% supporting the withdrawal of diplomatic relations and 28% supporting support for the Ukrainian government against the rebels, with only 8% preferring that no action be taken.

The poll also finds 59% of respondents not expecting their electricity bill to decrease as a result of the carbon tax repeal, which includes 16% who actually expect it to go up, versus only 33% who expect it to fall. A question on actions on climate change policy has only 5% nominating the government’s direct action policy of the available options and only 19% going for an emissions trading scheme, with 43% insteading opting for “incentives for renewable energy”. Another question finds 51% favouring an increase in the childcare rebate over the government’s paid parental leave scheme, which is preferred by only 25%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,164 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Just an afterthought on the imperative of corpse repatriation.
    It certainly wasn’t prominent in previous generations. In Rupert Brooke’s words,

    IF I should die, think only this of me;
    That there’s some corner of a foreign field
    That is for ever England. There shall be
    In that rich earth a richer dust concealed;
    A dust whom England bore, shaped, made aware,
    Gave, once, her flowers to love, her ways to roam,
    A body of England’s breathing English air,
    Washed by the rivers, blest by suns of home.

    Attaturk had the same sentiments in his famous eulogy over the ANZAC dead

    So when and where did “bring them home” come from. There was certainly a strong debate as the Vietnam War wax beginning that the Australian tradition of leaving the dead where they fell should continue.
    I suspect that in the last 50 years Australian funereal attitudes have come under strong American influence which seems to have strong and fixed ideas on the “proper” way to mourn. Maybe this is a good thing for many bereaved people but personally I find it maudlin.

  2. Tom

    I haven’t been watching the news much some haven’t seen the new Abbott hair.

    It is amazing (not) that the MSM is not all over this, given the preoccupation with Julia Gillard’s appearance.

    I come from a family with a long history of hair loss, though I have most of mine.

    There are few things you can do. Face up to it and adopt an appropriate hairstyle, lash out on a really good (expensive) toupe or enhancement program, or the combover. The last just leaves you open to ridicule

    I notice that Netanyahu is a comb over man. Pretty much sums him up.

  3. Dee:

    My property is surrounded by very (and I mean VERY) wealthy landowners who have used their influence to lean on the state govt to so far stop a dam being built in our valley which would’ve wiped out neighbouring farms, including several wineries; a direct road link to the main road into town, which would’ve seen several hobby farms flattened in the resulting roadworks; the town’s first traffic light intersection; and more recently a bid by Woollies to establish its presence here, the first by a major retail outlet (although this also needed local shire approval which didnt come thru).

    Influential links to govt are all over the place and shouldn’t be underestimated.

  4. @BB/1100

    He’s outright lying so he can fool people into signing up he can get away with any court costs if there is another injury like under the past WTFD schemes.

    The legislation specifically is said you will be excluded.

  5. shellbell @ 1055

    The Beattie Government did not make the appointment of Chief Justice back in Fitzgerald’s days.

    It was made by the Borbidge LNP government during their 1996-1998 period of government when the then CJ resigned suddenly, thus allowing Borbidge to appoint the new CJ de Jersey.

    The then CJ was filthy with the previous Goss Government for withdrawing the recommendation for his knighthood after Goss came to power.

    In addition, the then CJ was not consulted by Goss about the creation of the Court of Appeal and the members of it. He was overseas.

    He spat the dummy and resigned during Borbidge’s term of government, thus allowing them to appoint a CJ of their own liking.

    Fitzgerald was angry that the then Beattie Labor Opposition did not speak up in support of him.

  6. The farmer who allegedly shot the NSW government environment officer should have his day in court. If the facts are established to be as reported, then he should be convicted of murder and spend the rest of his life (he is 79) in prison, maybe to be released to a nursing home or hospice in due course. If the facts are different (it could conceivably be accidental or reckless disregard) then the judge and jury will take it into account.

    What we shouldn’t have is MPs and the LNP Propaganda Service (a.k.a. News Corp) taking sides and apparently saying it’s OK to take up arms if you disagree with the law.

    There is no need to confiscate his land.

  7. Steve

    I agree with you . Let due process take place

    As for taking his land, I am sure it won’t be his land, it almost certainly will be tied up in some sort of trust structure, which while legal, helps minimise tax.

    The tories, under Costello, were going to review the family trust structure. Then Costello found that nearly all the cabinet had a trust. That was the end of that.

  8. Dee

    You’re right, there. Ancestory.com has monopolised much of the records.

    Still this site there’s some info available from their rootsweb site; certainly helps if you don’t want to outlay lots of bucks for B,D & M certs.

    Actually, what I’m liking so much is I can now recall my mum’s voice: I’d sort of lost hearing it after 12 years. But now, with each person unearthed I can hear her telling me about them. It’s nice. Comforting.

    http://wc.rootsweb.ancestry.com/cgi-bin/igm.cgi?op=SHOW&db=symonds&surname=

    And, after all, it was just a little thing, the bare basics, I thought I’d do for my son when he got married. Surprising how it grows.

    And, btw, a big fat congratulatory greeting from me to you and Charlie on the birth of your 5th grandchild.

    Guess what! It’s the big reunion, and 75th birthday, for the NNG Netball Club this August 16.

  9. [The {Green Army} legislation specifically is said you will be excluded.]

    Which legislation has, of course, not been passed.

    So I dunno what Abbott was doing “launching” the Green Army.

    It’s more like Patton’s 3rd. “Army” before the D-Day invasion: all noise, no army.

  10. [ Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, August 2, 2014 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    So when and where did “bring them home” come from.

    There was certainly a strong debate as the Vietnam War wax beginning that the Australian tradition of leaving the dead where they fell should continue. ]

    It certainly started with Vietnam.

    Policy existing at the beginning of Vietnam according to Paul Ham was that KIA were to be buried at the closest Commonwealth War Cemetery – Malaysia in the case of Vietnam.

    When the Army/ Government sort to apply this to earky KIA in Vietnam there was an outcry and a Sydney businessman paid to bring several KIA home at his expenses. Then the first National Serviceman was KIA in Vietnam and his family demanded he be brought home.

    The policy was permanently changed when a VC was posthumously awarded and the serviceman in question was brought home for burial.

  11. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, August 2, 2014 at 9:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Dee:

    My property is surrounded by very (and I mean VERY) wealthy landowners who have used their influence to lean on the state govt to so far stop a dam being built in our valley which would’ve wiped out neighbouring farms, including several wineries; a direct road link to the main road into town, which would’ve seen several hobby farms flattened in the resulting roadworks; the town’s first traffic light intersection; and more recently a bid by Woollies to establish its presence here, the first by a major retail outlet (although this also needed local shire approval which didnt come thru).

    Influential links to govt are all over the place and shouldn’t be underestimated.]

    Look out kiddo. Your holding could quite easily be swallowed up by your wealthy neighbours. In the blink of an eye. An offer you can’t refuse.

    If they’re anything like their Eastern siblings, my bet is some, or at least one, have been on Council. I reckon those property holders would have sealed roads to their doors.

  12. dave
    [be buried at the closest Commonwealth War Cemetery – Malaysia in the case of Vietnam.

    When the Army/ Government sort to apply this to earky KIA in Vietnam there was an outcry and a Sydney businessman paid to bring several KIA home at his expenses. Then the first National Serviceman was KIA in Vietnam and his family demanded he be brought home.

    The policy was permanently changed when a VC was posthumously awarded and the serviceman in question was brought home for burial.]

    Or was the policy brought about because of the outrage against the Vietnam War? And the way the conscripts were treated on return? i.e. not hailed as heroes because there was nothing to celebrate in defeat by the commos?

    btw, what happened to the careerist Korean war soldiers? Were they treated like the Viet Vets?

  13. [ Or was the policy brought about because of the outrage against the Vietnam War? ]

    No. Different time frames.

    In the early stages of the Vietnam War (like many others including WW1) the war had public support – Successive tory Governments got elected right though the 60’s etc.

    [ what happened to the careerist Korean war soldiers? Were they treated like the Viet Vets? ]

    Korean War was referred to as the “Forgotton War” our dead are probably buried in Korean as far as I know.

    Now deceased Pludger, Judith Barnes’ husband was I believe a soldier in 3RAR which served in Korea and staged a historical parade on Woodside Parade Ground in SA when volunteers for Korea service were asked to take a pace forward – and the entire battalion did so.

    But I assume the Korean War Battalions got welcome home parades as did the Vietnam Battalions – something which is often overlooked. Others not in the main battalion formations were the ones overlooked.

  14. [IF I should die, think only this of me;
    That there’s some corner of a foreign field
    That is for ever England. There shall be
    In that rich earth a richer dust concealed;
    A dust whom England bore, shaped, made aware,
    Gave, once, her flowers to love, her ways to roam,
    A body of England’s breathing English air,
    Washed by the rivers, blest by suns of home.]

    A bit supremacist, don’t ya think?

    But then again Rupert Brooke was only 27 years of age, full of the conceit of youth. After all he’d only seen ‘war’ for 6 months, most of which was travelling by sea.

    What’s so wonderful about the lust men desire to destroy other men, and then glory in it?

    As if the women and children, for whom you so valiantly and supposedly fought, didn’t mean a thing. It was for other men to love you for your sacrifice.

    There’s nothing more dead than a spent vain youth.

    .

  15. I always thought Rupert Brooke was a bit of an idiot. Had he lived to see the Great War through, then saw the 20’s, the Great Depression, Great War 2 then the Cold War with its threat of nuclear annihilation (he would have been 74 at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis), I’m sure that there would have been a good chance that he would have come to a less romantic view of war.

  16. dave
    [But I assume the Korean War Battalions got welcome home parades as did the Vietnam Battalions – something which is often overlooked. Others not in the main battalion formations were the ones overlooked.]

    I don’t recall the welcome home ticker tape parades for the Viet Vets. All I remember is the scorn from the public, and the anger and bitterness of the conscriptees, not to mention the psychiatric problems.

    Perhaps the ones I saw, the ones I remember, were the ones who came back alive, but weren’t in the main batallion.

    I still see the anger today, from the Viet Vets.

  17. kezza no, I dont find that excerpt supremacist at all, but the moving words of a melancholic young man contemplating his death. Certainly there’s some patriotism in there, but nothing wrong with that.

  18. [ But then again Rupert Brooke was only 27 years of age, full of the conceit of youth. After all he’d only seen ‘war’ for 6 months, most of which was travelling by sea.]

    I have just finished Niall Ferguson’s, “The War of the World” and he refers to Brooke as being regarded as the “most handsome man in Britain” at the time.

    But he died at sea, without seeing active service, from blood poisoning as the result of an infected mosquito bite on his way to Gallipoli.

  19. kezza2@1124

    dave

    But I assume the Korean War Battalions got welcome home parades as did the Vietnam Battalions – something which is often overlooked. Others not in the main battalion formations were the ones overlooked.


    I don’t recall the welcome home ticker tape parades for the Viet Vets. All I remember is the scorn from the public, and the anger and bitterness of the conscriptees, not to mention the psychiatric problems.

    Perhaps the ones I saw, the ones I remember, were the ones who came back alive, but weren’t in the main batallion.

    I still see the anger today, from the Viet Vets.

    There have been a number of TV programs showing Vietnam Vets returning to Vietnam, meeting the former enemy, reconciling and finding it a cathartic experience. Some have even gone to live there.

    Perhaps some are still haunted by having been involved in an unjustified war and contributing to immense death and suffering in Vietnam.

  20. Re 1186: the PM was someone referred to in recent pages here as the ‘Silver Bodgie’. Too bad he can’t come out of retirement.

  21. [Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, August 2, 2014 at 10:51 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza no, I dont find that excerpt supremacist at all, but the moving words of a melancholic young man contemplating his death. Certainly there’s some patriotism in there, but nothing wrong with that.]

    Nothing wrong with that, eh?

    What if a Greek had died on that spot.
    Would the soil be richer for a Greek being laid there? Or richer because an Englishman lay there?

    That’s the conceit I’m talking about. A racist conceit. That an Englishman will enrich Greek soil, merely by decomposing there.

    Rupert Brooke thought his life was more valuable than others. It wasn’t. He was merely yet another man, yet another silly man available to lose his life.

    And he didn’t use his last words to rail against the stupidity of war, he used them to glorify himself.

    That’s vanity. That’s ego. And that’s supremacist, and encouragement to the next generation to go to war.

    But then he was just a stupid foolhardy youth.

  22. Steve777 @ 1123: Bit tough to blame Rupert Brooke for attitudes which were very widespread at the time he was killed. Siegfried Sassoon was another whose early war poems had celebratory elements, but he changed his views rapidly: “You smug faced crowds with kindling eye, who cheer when soldier lads march by; slink home and pray you’ll never know the hell where youth and laughter go.”

  23. [ I don’t recall the welcome home ticker tape parades for the Viet Vets. All I remember is the scorn from the public, and the anger and bitterness of the conscriptees, not to mention the psychiatric problems. ]

    There were parades for ALL of the battalions when they came home, but if you were a cook, a storeman, a gunner, a field engineer, etc you probably missed out – until years later.

    Voters elected to send these young men to Vietnam and significant numbers of them were killed and then voters changed their minds and blamed the troops – the conscripts etc, while continuing to re-elect the tory government who basically arse licked the US to get involved in the war.

    Never believe “Voters never get it wrong”.

    In this instance they blamed the troops who they had conscripted and gave the tories a free pass and re-election.

  24. Vietnam Veterans’ welcome home parade 1987 (not 86): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YL06ddRmiJE

    Whatever the controversies of Australia’s involvement in that war, the Vietnam War veterans were required to perform a dangerous and unpleasant task for their country and deserved respect, not derision. Menzies, Holt, et al on the other hand…

  25. dave
    [I have just finished Niall Ferguson’s, “The War of the World” and he refers to Brooke as being regarded as the “most handsome man in Britain” at the time.

    But he died at sea, without seeing active service, from blood poisoning as the result of an infected mosquito bite on his way to Gallipoli.]

    Yeah, he didn’t even fight. He wasn’t a warrior. He was just good to look at. I mean, no wonder he penned the fatuous words of his rotting body’s dust enriching another country’s soil.

    Oh, please. And this is what future generations hang on, to make their deaths in other lands worthwhile.

    I’d rather read Charles Bean’s heroic revisionistic and myth-making jingoistic nationalism as the war unfolded, fifty times over, than the idiotic self-indulgent mutterings of an early 1900s popstar.

    Then again, I wouldn’t.

    And I still wouldn’t think Brooke was a good man.

  26. Despite the myth that the war was unpopular the war party one both relevant elections. The 1966 election was Labor’s worst defeat since 1932 – a feat that has only recently been beaten.

    All regiments received enthusiastic welcomes from large crowds. The only major disturbance was the Sydney parade in 1966 when a single female protestor doused herself in red paint and embraced the Colonel leading the parade.

  27. [ Yeah, he didn’t even fight. He wasn’t a warrior. He was just good to look at. I mean, no wonder he penned the fatuous words of his rotting body’s dust enriching another country’s soil.]

    His poetry reflected the public’s early attitude to the war – as it does in most wars – but public reaction was WAY over the top on both sides in WW1.

    Then reality hit – particularly in the so called Pal’s Battalions – when local lads joined up together and were slaughtered together and their neighborhoods were devastated together and never really got over it.

    A generation wasted.

  28. I admire Brooks for his persistence.Not only was he going to expand the Empire while still alive but he was also going to do his bit when dead by claiming a 6 foot hole for the mother country.

  29. Re Pedant @1131: yes, maybe too harsh – a young man contemplating death who never had a chance for mature reflection.

    A cold night in Sydney – 9 degrees at the Observatory Hill hothouse (Sydney’s ‘official’ temperature) and 5 degrees at the more representative Olympic Park.

  30. How can you say it was a waste?
    Didn’t the war stop Austro-Hungarian ambitions in the Balkans and give Sud-Tyrol and Trieste to Italy?
    More importantly for Australia didn’t it ensure that we would remain a country for the White man (at least that was Billy Hughes’ claim)

  31. steve777
    [Whatever the controversies of Australia’s involvement in that war, the Vietnam War veterans were required to perform a dangerous and unpleasant task for their country and deserved respect, not derision. Menzies, Holt, et al on the other hand…]

    All warmongers deserve derision.

    Menzies didn’t campaign for conscription. He introduced it after the 1963 election.

    Sure, the Liberal Party won the 1966 election, but it wasn’t too long after that with the body bags arriving home, and conscientious objection, and of course losing the war, saw the tide of public opinion change.

    Peoples’ kids were getting killed for no reason.

    Funny how we don’t care when it’s other peoples’ kids getting killed. It’s all sanitised.

    But when it’s ours, a lot of them, we care. And we want it stopped.

    And we stopped it. And we didn’t celebrate it.

    Labor won in 1972 promising to get out of Vietnam.

    [All regiments received enthusiastic welcomes from large crowds. The only major disturbance was the Sydney parade in 1966 when a single female protestor doused herself in red paint and embraced the Colonel leading the parade.]

    Oh, so that’s why the Viet Vets are so unhappy. I’ll have to tell the ones I know they were actually feted, enthusiastically, from large crowds.

    They must have been blind and deaf at the time.

  32. [Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, August 2, 2014 at 11:25 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza you’ve put an interpretation on that line about rich soil that is utterly wrong.]

    Okay, what’s your interpretation?

  33. [ Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, August 2, 2014 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    I admire Brooks for his persistence.Not only was he going to expand the Empire while still alive but he was also going to do his bit when dead by claiming a 6 foot hole for the mother country. ]

    Sassoon is more worthy of admiration imo.

    He did the trenches, came home wounded and decorated, told them to get stuffed and that he wasn’t going back and that it was all a crock, he had the army not knowing how to treat a genuine hero who was clearly suffering “shell shock” etc – then he went back again – and was killed.

    An entire generation of junior officers mainly from the upper class went from school to officer Training to their graves.

    An entire generation.

    German snipers worked out quickly who to shot – young blokes holding pistols, wearing Sam Browne Belts and wearing riding boots.

    The smarter young blokes – barely out of their teens – who still lead their troops – carried rifles and looked like ordinary soldiers to give themselves a better chance at survival.

  34. Rossmore

    [Dead bodies dont discriminate.]

    And soil doesn’t discriminate which nationality enriches it. Just stupid vainglorious youth does, according to the vagaries of supposedly adult men.

    BTW, why do you think most women are against war??

    Think about it, from our point of view.

    We spend 9 months growing a human being in our bodies. We give birth, mostly paingully. We then spend another 20 years nurturing that person.

    We don’t want a stupid dumb f**k of a bloke, who doesn’t belong to our family, telling us that 19-20 years of hard work is just to go and kill some other woman’s 19-20 years of hard work.

    I think you’d feel very differently about the work of killing, about WAR, if it was you who grew the baby, looked after the child, and fed the man.

    Instead of seeing as a sacrifice how about seeing it as the bloody waste it is.

  35. Sassoon’s friend Robert Graves’ work, particularly ‘Goodbye to all that’ strikes me as avery strong message about war.

  36. [ Oh, so that’s why the Viet Vets are so unhappy. I’ll have to tell the ones I know they were actually feted, enthusiastically, from large crowds. ]

    See # 1132. There were parades etc.

    The blokes who came home later were shunned by the very voters who sent them and they have every right to resent their treatment.

    Voters showed themselves as arseholes and yet again rewarded the tories.

    But things were different in earlier years. Later years poisoned it all.

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