Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

A new Galaxy poll reflects last week’s polling in finding the Coalition vote up in the wake of the MH17 disaster, but not by much.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a Galaxy poll, presumably to be published in the News Limited tabloids tomorrow, has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at the last such poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11% and Palmer United down one to 7%.

Other questions posed by the pollsters elicited results that would be highly disappointing to the government under the circumstances. Bill Shorten leads Tony Abbott not only on “best at managing the economy”, by 43% to 36%, but also by 41% to 39% on “trust to stand up for Australia’s overseas interests”. Shorten also maintains a 41-35 lead as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: Daily Telegraph graphic here, giving highest prominence to a question on “who has shown the most leadership after the MH17 disaster” out of Tony Abbott (48%), Barack Obama (17%) and David Cameron (7%), notwithstanding the doubts one might harbour about respondents’ capacity to provide a meaningful answer to such a question. Of more use is a question on whether the Prime Minister should ban Vladimir Putin from attending the G20 summit in Brisbane, which finds 45% in favour and 36% opposed, and a slightly stronger lean in favour among Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2 (Roy Morgan): This week’s Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, combining the results of face-to-face and SMS surveying from 3296 respondents over the past two weekends, has the Coalition up four points to 38%, but Labor also up half a point to 39%. Palmer United is down from 7.5% to 5%, with the Greens also down a point to 10.5%. Labor is down two points on both respondent-allocated and previous election two-party preferred, its respective leads now at 54.5-45.5 and 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 13
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  1. I think the MH effect has been to stop the polls for Abbott getting worse.
    et
    Without it we would have had discussion about what is going to happen to the budget in the Senate and more focus on the Immigration policy failure,

  2. [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 27, 2014 at 11:36 pm | PERMALINK
    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Best at managing the economy: Abbott 36 Shorten 43 #auspol”
    ]

    What an astonishing finding. If this is right Abbott has got big problems.

  3. [51
    guytaur

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Best at managing the economy: Abbott 36 Shorten 43 #auspol”]

    …doubtless reflecting the attrition in real wages and ebbing per capita demand for labour….

    The LNP’s only claim to office is based on the myth of their superior economic performance. As it becomes evident that the LNP do not understand and cannot run the economy, their political competitiveness will fade away.

  4. [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 27, 2014 at 11:38 pm | PERMALINK
    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Preferred PM: Abbott 35 Shorten 41 #auspol”
    ]

    This poll just gets better and better for Labor. Shorten still well in front as PPM.

  5. Darb

    The Influence of force in foreign affairs is almost a national security question that the LNP are traditionally strong in.

  6. Yup #MH17 temporarily saved Abbott.

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Galaxy Poll Shown most leadership in #MH17 crisis: Abbott 48 Obama 17 David Cameron 7 #auspol

  7. [ No, but things are looking up…… ]

    They are. I have permission from SWMBO to buy some glass for my birthday to build a couple of mirrors. 🙂 8inch f10 flex for planets in a few months think i. 🙂

  8. Rossmore @ 26

    [but every move forward in the Australian project over the last 30 years has the ALP brand.]

    A lot longer than 30 years. It was Labor that had to do the hard yards on WW2 when Menzies proved incapable.

    After the war Labor convinced GM to build cars here which bought the expertise we needed to change us from an agrarian to manufacturing economy, began the Snowy Scheme to provide the cheap power needed and along the way bought in large numbers of migrants, against considerable initial opposition, all of which set up the long period of growth the LNP rode for so long in government without having to do anything much.

    Then in the 1970s the Whitlam government began the process of social change which had been so long neglected, access to higher eduction for everyone, not just the well off, set up community health centres, introducing Medicare, expanded the role of local government beyond filling potholes and collecting rubbish, legislated against restrictive trade practices which allowed manufacturers and wholesalers to dictate retail prices, boosted gender equality and introduced divorce reform, advanced the rights of indigenous Australians, opened the door to China to the alarm of the Liberals, and even finally sewered inner Sydney after 200 years of European settlement. And then we had the massive reforms of the Hawke/Keating era.

    OTOH, what have the LNP ever done apart from embroiling us in stupid wars?

  9. [ OTOH, what have the LNP ever done apart from embroiling us in stupid wars? ]

    Aqueducts?? Ok, maybe not, but they were very keen on Dams and are keen on Roads at the moment.

    Didn’t you get the memo that Tony is the INFRASTRUCTURE PRIME MINISTER??? I’m sure he will get around to it…eventually??

  10. [@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+1) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 11 (+1) PUP 7 (-1) #auspol]

    So did the Greens take 1 off Labor, and the LNP take 1 off PUP? At least, roughly.

  11. Re Slothy @65: and the LNP is intent on winding back all of these gains. The LNP doesn’t want to take Australia back to the 1950s, it’s the 1930’s he’s aiming for.

  12. http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/prime-minister-tony-abbott-leads-the-world-on-mh17-but-not-the-polls-aussie-voters-still-hurting-over-the-budget/story-fnii5s3x-1227003575868
    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott leads the world on MH17, but not the polls: Aussie voters still hurting over the Budget
    July 28, 2014 12:00AM
    EXCLUSIVE Simon Benson National Political Editor
    The Daily Telegraph

    AUSTRALIANS have ­overwhelmingly backed Tony Abbott’s leadership through the MH17 crisis, ranking him well ahead of other world leaders including US ­President Barack Obama.

    But they have refused to ­reward the Prime Minister or the government at home, with the electorate still seeking to punish the Coalition over its stalled Budget.

    An exclusive poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph over the weekend has ­revealed most Australians believed Mr Abbott had shown more leadership in response to the shooting down of the MH17 — and his uncompromising stance against Russia — than President Obama.]

  13. 73

    Thankfully it is not the world that is voting on Abbott.

    I’m not sure what the public would think of Abbott wasting taxpayers money by sending an excessive police force to Ukraine.

  14. very tired tonight, I just drove from Lizzie’s place to
    warrnanbool and we are staying at a dog friendly B and B for the night. It was a long drive so I am saying nite dint let the bedbugs bite.\\

  15. Also what the poll failed to include are the Dutch and Malaysian PMs. Those have contributed much more than Obama and Cameron.

  16. I don’t think the LNP is taking the country back to 1950, 1930 or any previous years, as such. It is more an attempt to take the country to a Conservative idealogical utopia that does not exist anywhere in reality, And it cannot exist in a society that can question their representatives and reflect their opinions in polls, which in turn, drives change. That utopia has elements of the past, but is not any of the years I remember or have read about (mind you, I have the memory of a goldfish)

  17. Puff – we run the only pet friendly holiday house in our city. We are out there on the web etc, and many accomm sites, but we don’t get the bookings you’d think we’d get – lots of comments about how good it is, but no bookings (and no, it’s not that expensive).

  18. [An exclusive poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph over the weekend has revealed most Australians believed Mr Abbott had shown more leadership in response to the shooting down of the MH17 — and his uncompromising stance against Russia — than President Obama.]

    48% does not amount to ‘most Australians’ even assuming this ‘exclusive poll’ for the Murdochracy is not push polling. It’s actually a dreadful number in context, given the massive social and cultural pressure to avoid making this matter ‘political’. And the huge oush for him throughout the Murdochracy more generally. The ABC has been gushing. Really, Abbott ought to be getting closer to 70% if he were widely seen as competent on this.

    Moreover, this is likely to be the high tide. After the fiasco with the AFP deployment, even this will start a regression to his perceived competence in other matters.

  19. [zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 27, 2014 at 11:48 pm | PERMALINK
    Yup #MH17 temporarily saved Abbott.

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Galaxy Poll Shown most leadership in #MH17 crisis: Abbott 48 Obama 17 David Cameron 7 #auspol]

    Except that the following seems to suggest that Shorten is seen as better at it than Abbott.

    [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 27, 2014 at 11:37 pm | PERMALINK
    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Trust to stand up for Aust overseas interests: Abbott 39 Shorten 41 #auspol”
    ]

  20. [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 27, 2014 at 11:48 pm | PERMALINK
    Darn

    sorry for calling you Darb.]

    No problems Guytaur. Just a slip of the finger.

    BTW Thanks for posting all that info from Ghost who votes.

  21. Hah! Nice to see Galaxy include their standard ridiculous question so that the Telegraph can run with some pro Liberal spin. Most voters would not even know what Obama, let alone Cameron, have done or said re MH17. Frankly the rest of that poll would be particularly worrying for the Government. The Government, and Abbott in particular, is still in serious trouble, it seems MH17 has done nothing more than temporarily lessen the bleeding.

  22. Re this one:

    #Galaxy Poll Shown most leadership in #MH17 crisis: Abbott 48 Obama 17 David Cameron 7

    … I utterly concur with matt31 @#86. Completely silly question doubtless commissioned by the usual tabloid suspects for the usual dubious reasons. I’ll be giving it the long handle in my polling roundup this week.

  23. Paul@85

    Galaxy is consistently the most LNP biased poll.
    Consequently this poll is extremely disappointing for Abbott.

    I have Galaxy running on average at 0.78 points to Coalition compared to my aggregate since the last election. Essential is at 0.56 to Coalition but with a much higher +/- and the rest are all leaning to Labor so far (though Morgan is the only one for which a lean to Labor is statistically significant).

  24. [ gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, July 27, 2014 at 10:09 pm | PERMALINK
    Newspoll will report a big shift. I predict 50-50, Abbott’s dissatisfaction down and level on PPM. ]

    Noted.

  25. [I have Galaxy running on average at 0.78 points to Coalition compared to my aggregate since the last election.]

    Doing the same thing for BludgerTrack, the lean in favour (positive) or against (negative) the Coalition since the election is as follows:

    Galaxy +0.3%
    Essential +0.2%
    Newspoll -0.1%
    Nielsen -0.7%
    ReachTEL -0.7%
    Morgan -1.4%

    That doesn’t include the very latest Galaxy, so there are only three observations to work with there.

  26. William Bowe@91

    I have Galaxy running on average at 0.78 points to Coalition compared to my aggregate since the last election.


    Doing the same thing for BludgerTrack, the lean in favour (positive) or against (negative) the Coalition since the election is as follows:

    Galaxy +0.3%
    Essential +0.2%
    Newspoll -0.1%
    Nielsen -0.7%
    ReachTEL -0.7%
    Morgan -1.4%

    That doesn’t include the very latest Galaxy, so there are only three observations to work with there.

    My difference for Galaxy was much the same before this one; that said, if the Coalition’s 2PP improves with more polling this week (which is pretty likely) then the difference for this one will go down.

    For Newspoll, Nielsen, RT and Morgan I currently have -0.33, -0.44, -0.35 and -1.53. Actually based on the differences mine would be expected to lean slightly more to Labor than BT but I don’t think it actually does. The heavier (but still reduced) weighting of Essential in mine might be one of the reasons for that.

  27. Wonder if any press waiting at Darwin airport for this plane that has done a pit stop at Curtin from the Indian Ocean. Maybe some sick refugees being transferred to hospital there? Should land in around 35 minutes.

  28. Morning PBers

    From Isle of Skye

    Doesn’t look like the bounce has happened to Tony Abbott despite News Ltd best efforts so sad 😀

  29. I have been watching the Games on BBC, if someone from UK even comes 4th or 5th they are interviewed,don’t think an Aussie has been interviewed yet. Eg the race at moment Oz 1st and 2nd, 3rd Engand , he (the English guy)is back now, forget the 2 Aussies, they don’t count

  30. [#Galaxy Poll Shown most leadership in #MH17 crisis: Abbott 48 Obama 17 David Cameron 7 #auspol]

    What an utterly stupid pointless question.

  31. mari

    Re “..if someone from UK even comes 4th or 5th” . Lordy there are people from the UK competing !? The local coverage hasn’t mentioned that development 🙂

    Keep your eyes peeled for those Skye terriers . They can easily be mistaken for a clump of seaweed washed up on the beach 🙂

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