Seat of the week: Goldstein

Covering established areas of southern coastal Melbourne, the electorate of Goldstein doesn’t swing much, and has provided a safe base for Andrew Robb’s parliamentary career since 2004.

Created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, Goldstein covers coastal southern Melbourne starting from Brighton, located about 10 kilometres from the city centre, and proceeding southwards through Hampton, Sandringham and Black Rock to Beamaris. The northern part of the electorate extends inland beyond the Nepean Highway to accommodate Caulfield South, Bentleigh and surrounding suburbs. The more inland areas are naturally marginal, but the affluence of the coastal suburbs has kept the seat in Liberal hands by stable margins ranging from 5.5% in 1993 to a new high of 11.0% in 2013.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The area now covered by Goldstein was accommodated by the electorate of Balaclava in the years immediately after federation, and then by the new seat of Henty when Balaclava was pushed northwards by a redistribution in 1913. Brighton was put back into Balaclava after 1937, and the new seat of Higinbotham covered the remainder after parliament was expanded in 1949. When Higinbotham was abolished in 1969, the area was divided between Balaclava, Henty and the new seats of Hotham and Isaacs. Beaumaris and Black Rock remained in Isaacs after Goldstein was created in 1984, at which time the new electorate extended northwards to St Kilda East. It assumed a more familiar form when it absorbed Beaumaris in the redistribution of 1996, which greatly reduced the Liberals’ competitiveness in Isaacs.

The various electorates which dominated the modern area of Goldstein were at all times in conservative hands, with the partial exception of Labor’s win in Isaacs at the 1974 election. Don Chipp held Higinbotham for the Liberals from 1960 to 1969, at which time he moved to the new seat of Hotham. Balaclava and then Goldstein were held from 1974 to 1990 by Ian Macphee, who emerged as the figurehead of the party’s moderates. Macphee was ultimately defeated for preselection ahead of the 1990 election by David Kemp, an intellectual leader of the party’s rising neo-liberal tendency, an event that provided a catalyst for Andrew Peacock’s successful challenge to John Howard’s leadership in May 1989. Kemp went on to serve in the Howard cabinet from October 1997 until his retirement at the 2004 election, as Education Minister until 2001 and Environment Minister thereafter.

Goldstein has since been held by Andrew Robb, a former Liberal Party federal director who had long been spoken of as a potential candidate for safe seats in New South Wales, where he had lived for two decades. However, Robb had originally hailed from Victoria, having been raised in a working-class Catholic family that supported the Democratic Labor Party. He came to the Liberal Party via student politics and a job at the newly established National Farmers Federation, which was an assertive voice for labour market deregulation during his period as executive director after 1985. As federal director of the Liberal Party, Robb oversaw the 1990, 1993 and 1996 election campaigns, after which he set up the marketing company Acxiom for Kerry Packer. His first term in parliament was the last of the Howard government, in which he was promoted to parliamentary secretary in January 2006 and thence to the outer ministry as Vocational and Further Education Minister in January 2007.

Robb nominated for the deputy leadership after the 2007 election, but was defeated by Julie Bishop. He instead became Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister, and was briefly discussed as a leadership candidate when Malcolm Turnbull was embroiled in the “Utegate” affair in the middle of 2009. Shortly afterwards he made the surprise announcement that he was moving to the back bench owing to a depressive illness. He returned to the front bench in the finance portfolio in March 2010, from which he was resassigned to trade and investment after the 2013 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

845 comments on “Seat of the week: Goldstein”

Comments Page 10 of 17
1 9 10 11 17
  1. Well, let’s go to Antony Green on the issue —

    [Hare-Clark works particularly well in Tasmania because of the state’s highly stable population, the clear regional divisions reflected in electoral boundaries and long experience of using Hare-Clark. Voting is based very strongly on personal knowledge of candidates. The difficulty of implementing Hare-Clark for mainland state elections would be the size of the electorates. All the mainland states have state parliaments with average electoral enrolment per MP more than twice that of Tasmania. In larger electorates, the personal nature of Tasmanian electorates would be undermined, as it is in voting for the Federal Senate.]

    […Advocates of Hare-Clark concentrate on two aspects of the system as selling points. First, they stress the system is proportional. Second, with Robson rotation and the lack of ticket voting, they emphasise the anti-party nature of the system, and the stress on voting for candidates.

    To an extent, these to aims are in conflict with each other. The concept of proportionality only makes sense when you talk about party vote. You can’t have proportionality between independents. ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/tas/2006/guide/hareclark.htm

  2. Rex Douglas

    [Electoral funding is stacked in the favour of the duopoly.]

    Yet the Greens – who, at least until recent times, relied almost exclusively on electoral funding – managed to establish themselves as a party and win seats in both Houses.

  3. The comparisons of the current polling with that of the newly elected Howard and Rudd govts looks worse when put altogether.

  4. zoomster

    That ignores the point. Nice try at red herring.

    The point is that the Federal system would have given a different outcome to the Hare Clark system.

  5. zoomster

    I told you ask William or Kevin Bonham for expert opinion on this. I know its different outcomes but I would stuff up explaining it so I refer you to them

  6. Very interesting contrast between Angus Houston’s measured account of how things are on the ground in Ukraine and the earlier bellicose ranting of our Prime Moron.

    The ALP should rely on what Houston says and base its statements and position on that rather than falling in behind Abbott.

  7. zoomster

    I am not an expert psephologist. However I do know enough to know the Hare Clark system delivers different outcomes to the Federal voting system.

    It is you arguing against this so its up to yu to provide the evidence.

  8. confessions

    [what on earth was Hockey thinking?!]
    Probably spent too much time surrounded by people telling him how great he was. Such economic “genius” meant the budget would be met by hosannas and a populace casting rose petals at his feet. The wave of adoration generated by the budget being the perfect time to launch the book. Or at least that was the plan.

  9. Stutchbury ….. Abbott and Bishop have been “brilliant, faultless …… Australia’s finest moment”

    And he predicts polls will now improve and MH17 brilliance will convince electorate in 2016 that Abbott really is a great leader.

    Pity those who absorb the Stutchbury fantasy.

  10. guytaur

    You’re arguing the system should be introduced, and that it delivers better (not just different) outcomes to the present one.

    If you can’t explain/prove that it does, why are you arguing for it?

  11. zoomster

    The Age and members of the Liberals are using this incident as a litmus test for Andrews.

    They are demanding answers. Andrews response on Friday is not going to be accepted by them. In any case, the Liberals should be focussing on who amongst them distributed the audio to all its members

  12. pysclaw

    People I have spoken to said that Abbott made a fool of himself re the missing plane earlier in the year, and he is doing the same thing now, Of course, these are people who dont like him to start with. It will be interesting to see how many converts he has garnered over the past 10 days

  13. victoria@469

    zoomster

    The Age and members of the Liberals are using this incident as a litmus test for Andrews.

    They are demanding answers. Andrews response on Friday is not going to be accepted by them. In any case, the Liberals should be focussing on who amongst them distributed the audio to all its members

    Andrews is not accountable to the Age or the Liberals and should say so.

    He is accountable to his party and the electorate.

  14. Re ‘dictaphonegate’.

    The concentration on this internal duopoly issue is over the top.

    Far bigger issues to focus on than LNP/ALP shenanigans.

  15. zoomster

    No I never argued that. That is you shifting goalposts. I just said that you cannot say the public prefers the Federal System we have.

    We know the public likes The Hare Clark system. Ditto for ACT NSW etc.

    We have never had the public vote on a preferred model of a voting system its been an evolution. Like common law has been an evolution.

    I think the system is better for it. However you cannot say voters prefer the two party system as a result. The system is still evolving.

    The problem being dealt with currently is the Snate voting system because a problem occurred too significant for no change. So it evolves.

  16. It was a fairly polite Insiders this morning. I didn’t see all of it, I was attending to a few tasks, but from what I saw Michael Stutchbury was more restrained. He got his point across without trying to dominate proceedings or talk over the other panelists.

    I have to say I’m in the minority re Abbott’s handling of the MH17 tragedy – I can’t see that it’s been better than adequate at best, let alone brilliant. All that militarisation is not required and not helpful.

    P.S. What’s that on Julie Bishop’s head?

  17. victoria@473

    bemused

    Sadly unless this is handled properly, he can derail Labor’s campaign

    Further to what I said before, he should say that if they believe anyone has committed an offence, they should take it to the police.

    Put up or shut up.

  18. victoria@479

    bemused

    I do hope that Andrews and his team have formulated a response that will put this matter to rest.

    The Age and Libs will keep banging on about it and Labor will keep responding.

    Put up or shut up is a fairly powerful response as people can readily see that if there was anything in it, it would have been taken to the police.

  19. Maybe Daniel Andrews should just ask the Age and the Liberals: “you tell me who is supposed to have done what and I’ll try to answer you”.

  20. So, we now have 200 AFP and other personnel in Europe (200!) and the rebels say they will only allow in about 30 from all nations. What a pitiful prime minister we have. All ego and testosterone and no brain.

  21. I thought it was a good Insiders. Probyn gets a tick from me. Good to see Houston pouring cold water on Abbott’s excesses. Plibs did well after a nervous start. Stutchbury is a tool.

  22. Dictaphonegate

    Amazed that the Age wants to display its apparent incompetence in allegedly delivering sensitive material to the enemy and why they would want to publicise this.

  23. Bishop swanning around god knows where staring at people. I think that’s a rather fat dugite coiled on top of her head Steve.

  24. And the ambulance chasers are off and racing.

    [British lawyers have flown to Ukraine to prepare a class action against the Russian president on behalf of bereaved families

    Last week, lawyers from McCue & Partners, the London law firm, flew to Ukraine for discussions about how to bring the case and where it should be filed. Victims’ families will be invited to join the action. ]
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10993470/Putin-facing-multi-million-pound-legal-action-over-alleged-role-in-MH17-crash.html

  25. Had the extreme misfortune of catching 14 seconds of Bolt on TV. What were they discussing? Bolt getting stuck into Plibersek for not fawning over Abbot’s MH17 response. Chaff-Bag Morriss telling us Abbott has been magnificent but let’s not forget how magnificent Julie Bishop has been too. And Cassandra Wilkinson telling us we should all just get behind the Prime Minister.

    Has there ever been a more transparently politicised response to a tragedy than the current commentariat are giving us.

  26. Fascinating shots of the C in C emerging from the bunker to provide the populace with campaign updates. Meanwhile world media ignores Austalia’s role in doing anything much.

  27. bludgers

    is it possible the incompetent punk abbott with his grandstanding over ukraine and slap at russia could provide a war in response.

    he is wrecking the australian economy (talk to any retailer about when current decline began), he wants to wreck health, education, national and international climate measures – and now russia, always way above his weight

Comments Page 10 of 17
1 9 10 11 17

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *