BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The publication of Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates have caused a few adjustments at state level, but it’s otherwise a very quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. “@lyndalcurtis: Clive Palmer asked if amendment is not accepted “your senators will not vote for repeal?” ..he answers “correct” #carbon”

  4. lizzie

    great sympathy – I have, of course, his book on my shelf, which has all the relevant birds ticked!

    I’ve always loved the way it was written from an observer’s viewpoint – with wtte of “You will have noticed this bird because of the peculiar sound it makes…’ which were spot on.

    Hopefully there’s an afterlife somewhere where he’s perpetually crouched down with a pair of binoculars and a notebook, in a forest filled with birdsong…

  5. Lizzie, I’m so sorry to hear of your loss. I have admired your courage as you have told us of his health problems over recent months.
    But what a wonderfully worthwhile life!
    I have his Field Guide, bought many years ago because I was ashamed of my ignorance. One of my retirement plans – as yet unachieved – was to pull it out and do some serious study. I will do so now.

  6. DisplsyName

    “Does Palmer’s party agree with him?”

    I’m waiting for Ricky Muir to join the LDP-FF alliance. If there is a weak link in the Palmer chain, he’s it. Granted he’s not a full PUP but close enough. The rest of Clive’s senators appear to have some semblence of party discipline.

  8. What chances the government will try and stonewall today to try and delay the likely inevitable Palmer vote re Carbon Tax. Can the government enable the Senate to sit tomorrow and/or over the weekend? Is there a precedent for this?

  9. [I’m waiting for Ricky Muir to join the LDP-FF alliance. If there is a weak link in the Palmer chain, he’s it. Granted he’s not a full PUP but close enough. The rest of Clive’s senators appear to have some semblence of party discipline.]

    It doesn’t really matter, all roads to winning Senate votes pass through either Labour, Greens or PUP. If all three of those are opposed, it can’t pass.

  10. Looks like a bit of an end game for Palmer and Carbon. Always likely that he would let Abbott loose without insisting initially that an ETS framework stay in place before voting out carbon price. Then when Abbott shows he can’t be trusted on a replacement ETS he will “surprisingly” have to look at maintaining the current infrastructure in case all is lost. There is no other way with Abbott in charge of the HOR. It all has to be in place first.

    What we don’t know is if the PUP senators and Muir will get confused and end up on the wrong side of a vote. Thats why the LNP are desperate to bring on the voting. Newbies almost always get the wool pulled over their eyes on a few issues. Lets hope its not Carbon

  12. I have to say I have no freaking idea what Palmer is actually playing at. Might he actually be serious about insisting on an ETS of some description? Is he serious about passing the repeal if his stupid power pricing amendment gets up? Is he just stringing a bunch of sentence fragments together with bluster to make some political point?

    I wonder if he’s actually actively playing this whole carbon price fiasco to pull the rug out from under Abbott on his ‘signature promise’ to fatally weaken Abbott or whatever to boost Turnbull to the leadership – Abbott has no authority and can’t deal with the Senate but Turnbull can or something like that.

  13. Lizzie condolences my father has all of your partner’s books being a keen twitcher ie bird watcher and field naturalist.

    A sad loss for Australian publishing and research.

  15. Can the government enable the Senate to sit tomorrow and/or over the weekend?

    The Senate controls its own sitting times as far as I know, so the government would need the support of the very people who aren’t showing much enthusiasm for supporting the government to do that.

  16. Clive on Abbott / Abetz double cross

    Q: The implication being that business will not know what is going on for another week at the very least.

    A: I guess they should have thought about that, says Palmer.

  17. SGH

    Only the Senate can direct the Senate, not the PM or the government.

    If the Senate wants to sit 24/7 it can decide to do so.

    But why would they, if now only the coalition senators and a couple of loopy senators (ie a minority if PUP is now not with them) are keen to pass the carbon tax.

  20. [I like that Palmer waited until after Abbott’s press conference on the carbon price before throwing his hand grenade. #auspol]

  22. Lizzie

    I am very, very sorry to hear of your loss.

    Ken Simpson was a great contributor to knowledge of wildlife and will be sadly missed.

    My good friend uses his guide frequently.

  23. Our thoughts are with you, Lizzie.

    I bought my Mum a copy of your Ken’s book about 15 years ago, and it has had regular use since then.

  24. psyclaw

    Thanks for the links!! The “Flight of the Emu” has a number of mistakes in it so don’t rely on it. Wikipedia is “just the facts, man”.

    But very kind of you to look it up.

  26. Clive says the decision to vote against the carbon tax repeal was the decision of his senators after the amendments they wanted to the legislation were not honoured (included) properly, as negotiated, by the coalition …. ie a double cross.

    They include some “must”s put in as “may”s, and more.

  27. Hewson says he favours keeping the existing (Labor) ETS with the price set down to zero.

    This is a curious position (not counting that it is what Palmer was advocating). Hewson is a sensible man. But what’s the point of having an ETS legislated at zero price (doing nothing but adding red tape) if it requires further legislation to restore it to some functional price/international linkage.

    Unless the idea is to put the setting of the price in the hands of the CCA independently of government and not requiring further legislation.

    McKibbin was babbling on about his pet model the other day on the ABC – McKibbin is halfway sensible and halfway RWNJ. But one of his key points was this idea of putting the parameter setting for climate policy in the hands of an independent RBA-style agency and permanently taking it out of the hands of politicians.

    The question is whether Palmer (if he’s serious about this which I still find incredibly hard to believe unless he’s just decided that renewable energy is his next big money spinner) can force an amendment to set the price to zero but put the sole responsibility for deciding if the conditions are met to activate the carbon price in the hands of the CCA…

    A masterful and utterly surprising outcome if it is finessed.

  29. Lizzie, my condolences for your terrible loss.

    If Ken’s last 20 years were as your partner, then I think we all know they must have been his best 20 years.

  30. Whatever people think of the makeup of the new Senate, Palmer, Muir etc I think it has made more people in the community sit up and take notice about politics and Parliament in general. I’ve noted a lot more discussion at work and out and about re politics in recent weeks and in particular how these micro parties got elected etc and their influence etc

  33. That’s dreadfully sad news Lizzie. Your account of his contribution marks him out as a man who enriched those not merely close to but through his work.

    Such folk slip the bounds of mortality and leave those who live on greater for their efforts. I hope that you have good folk close to you who can support you at this time.

  35. The original. PUP position of having the Climate Change Authority Abolition bill amended to keep the CCA and append the 300 pages of dormant ETS had a fundamental flaw.

    Any bill amended by the Senate goes back to the House who can either agree, reject and return to the Senate, or just let wither on the Notice Paper. Ok, so the CCA remains but so what.

    Maybe Clive had the idea that Abbott would support the dormant ETS provisions? Well he won’t.

    So PUP would be seen to be humiliated by not getting their announced position through.

    Maybe it is a better idea to append the 300 pages to the actual Carbon Tax repeal bill being debated right now?

  36. From the live ABC coverage of the Senate

    Palmer commented that there were some nasty conversations this morning with some LNP MPs re the repeal legislation

  37. Jackol

    ..force an amendment to set the price to zero but put the sole responsibility for deciding if the conditions are met to activate the carbon price in the hands of the CCA…

    Why should you doubt Clive on this, it will skewer Tony, his only way out would be to knobble the CAA, were that to happen Clive would give Tony no choice but to have a DD to progress any other legislation …Clive will see the end of Tony

  38. Maybe it is a better idea to append the 300 pages to the actual Carbon Tax repeal bill being debated right now?

    Well, it wouldn’t take 300 pages, it would probably take about 2 pages because the 300 pages were intended to replicate the stuff they’re repealing.

    But this was why I had no confidence in what Palmer was saying when he was standing next to Gore. Yes, if he wanted his zero-value price ETS in place, then amending the carbon price repeal to do this is the obvious way to actually get it done – the government doesn’t get to “axe the tax”, which it is so desperate to do, unless Palmer gets his amendments up.

  39. sceptic –

    Why should you doubt Clive on this

    Because Clive has repeatedly, and recently, indicated that he had no belief in climate change or conviction in taking any action on AGW, and had indicated a desire to see the carbon price utterly annihilated.

    Why he is now stating something entirely different … who knows, but I think it is very sensible to ‘doubt Clive on this’.

  41. Condolences Lizzie. It’s a very sad time, even if it was expected.

    I also have a copy of Ken Simpson’s bird book, a third edition (1989), which had belonged to my late mother – 760 birds in colour. A beautiful piece of work.

  42. Lizzie – following on after the many condolences from all the fine members of the *PB Family* – My heart goes out to you during this sad time.

  44. Jackol

    Hewson spoke at length about the need to preserve the ETS “architecture” and gave good reasons for this, including sheer waste, and loss of expertise and the fact that in his opinion it will be required shortly (post Abbott) anyway.

    There were other reasons I can’t articulate, enough to say that to me it all made sense.

  49. I heard Senator Bob Day this morning. Now he is one RightWingNutJob, as evidenced by his former executive position with the HR. Nichols Society.

  50. Jackol
    Clive likes to play the jovial giant king maker.. but he is no fool.
    He won’t want to be laughed at by the old LNP buggers in Qld.
    Why spend all that money to get into Parliament & gain credibility to just throw it away.

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