GhostWhoVotes relates that what I believe will be Fairfax’s second final monthly Nielsen poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. While being well on trend, this marks a big improvement for the Coalition on last month, which was their worst poll result of the post-budget blowout: 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40% for Labor, 35% for the Coalition and 14% for the Greens. Leadership ratings to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The Nielsen poll has Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 35% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Bill Shorten down five to 42% and up two to 41%; and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 51-40 to 47-40. Questions on preferred party leaders found Malcolm Turnbull favoured to lead the Liberal Party by 40% compared with 21% for Abbott and 11% for both Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, while Bill Shorten led the Labor pack with 25% to 19% for Anthony Albanese, 17% for Tanya Plibersek and 7% each for Tony Burke and Chris Bowen. A question from the previous poll concerning whether the budget was fair was revisited, again finding 33% agreeing that it was, with disagreement down two points to 61%. On the question of sending Australian soldiers to Iraq, 31% said they would be in favour with 66% opposed.
Other recent polling snippets:
• The Sunday News Limited papers report that a Galaxy Research poll of 1010 women aged between 18 and 44 found 60% thought the government’s proposed paid parental leave scheme was fair, with 29% thinking it not fair and 6% believing it was not enough.
• The Conversation reports a JWS Research poll conducted for the Climate Institute finds a 10% increase in belief in (presumably anthropogenic) climate change since 2012 to 70%, together with a range of negative results for the government: a net rating of minus 18% for the present government’s performance on climate change compared with minus 1% for the previous government in the earlier poll, and a slight majority of 34% to 30% in favour of the carbon pricing laws, a dramatic reversal from the 28% and 52% recorded in 2012.
• Roy Morgan has a phone poll of 638 respondents on the biggest problems facing Australia, which has “politics and leadership” up seven points since February to 18%, the economy up three points to 42% and “religion/immigration/human rights” down seven to 9%.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly result from Essential Research records a move back to the Coalition, who are up one on the primary vote to 40% with Labor down three to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are steady on 9% and 5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed from 54-46 to 52-48. Further questions relate to Iraq, with 25% thinking the 2003 invasion the right decision versus 50% for the wrong decision, 53% nominating “to support the USA” as the Howard government’s main reason for getting involved, 39% saying they would approve of US action to support the Iraq government in its current crisis with military action with 31% opposed, and 54% saying they would disapprove of Australia sending troops with 30% approving.
The poll also finds 28% felt the Greens holding the Senate balance of power was good for Australia versus 37% for bad, with 26% and 39% responses for the looming circumstance of Palmer United and micro-parties holding the balance of power. We also get the regular arsenal of “leaders attributes” questions applied to Clive Palmer and Christine Milne, with the former turning up rather poorly, with high rating for arrogant, aggressive and erratic. Christine Milne breaks 50% on “out of touch with ordinary people”, but otherwise seems to have made less of an impression. Both rate quite highly on intelligent and hard-working, but successful politicians nearly always do.
Finally, the poll finds only 19% agreeing with Tony Abbott that no election promises were broken in the budget, with 72% disagreeing.
You can tell rummel is unhinged.
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Thanks Confessions…
Yes, too early to tell really.
Must be soul destroying and embarassing to have such a dishonest and stupid leader, and to have to try and defend things so stupid you have to abuse anyone who doesn’t agree with you. Attacking Clive is a sure sign you have absolutely nothing else to say on the issue and nothing at all of value to say.
The various clergy behind Abbott either have their noses in reading material or look to be asleep.
Clive is the Mastercraftsman of Politics…and a master showman
Abbott and Co look bewildered …as they well might be
what will he think of next?
but a clever clever politician
Those who thought him of little account have greatly underestimated him
now what next Clive ?
That means Al had time to speak to others over dinner?
Frednk
Sometimes nothing is better than something. First, do no harm is a good rule of thumb.
Crikey’z (Cathy Alexander’s) take on Palmer’s press conference: http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/06/25/hang-on-did-clive-palmer-just-save-the-planet/
Au contraire, he’s just implemented a strategy that forms part of a program equilibrium, which is an alternative solution concept to Nash equilibrium in noncooperative games.
In particular, if program strategies are binding (as in, you have to write a program or contract to implement them), then cooperation of the form put forward by Palmer becomes an equilibrium of the Prisoners’ dilemma and tragedy of the commons games. The are two games are often used to characterise the problem of getting nations to cooperate and agree to reduce carbon emissions, and to reduce nuclear armaments at an earlier time.
If every nation, or the five others that Clive listed, agree to the same terms, then cooperation will ensue, and indeed, this us the best thing that each of them can do. I see Palmer’s suggestion as a very clever move.
Mmmmm…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-25/palmer-will-help-axe-carbon-tax-but-courts-gore-in-push-for-ets/5549938
OK, so I said they should lock Palmer up with a gaggle of Climate scientists for a day or so to see if they could turn him beofe the vote, and before it was too late.
Well, it wasn’t Climate scientists, but Al Gore is the next best thing.
Very roughly, he’s in line with Labor’s policy. It should be do-able from here, with good will on both sides.
Axe the tax (Labor policy anyway) and bring on an ETS.
Yes, yes, I know about “devils” and “detail”, but it’s a way forward,politics being the art of the possible and all that.
We’ve gottentoo bogged down in absolutism and brinksmanship in the past. Surely there’s a way through here that means Abbott’s Denialist claptrap is put to bed once and for all.
Ha! you can hardly call that attacking Palmer or abuse since its true. For you to cry little tears for Palmer because i said he has a jet to get to work while you call the PM stupid is up there as best spin i have seen for years on PB.
If you think Palmers Plan for Carbon is great, go ahead and vote for it. When i see a mining billionaire rushing out to say he now wants an ETS after saying he did not want one, well forgive me for not trusting any of it and seeing the public getting taken to the cleaners.
For the conspiracy theorists, the big money in the US wants to invest in clean energy, just keep the building/investing turning over. And they actually do trust the scientists.
With the Republicans looking like another 4 years on the outer, let’s get with the strength. That asshole Murdoch can get burnt.
A global consensus is being formed. Abbott is a problem in Australia, who we thought was a leader on this stuff. He needs to be boned. Along with his patron Murdoch.
Now who is that donor to the JFK Library we have been grooming? And call Al. Tell him we got a job.
An abstract covering the idea of program equilibria is here.
P.S. And don’t think Al Gore isn’t working for Barak Obama, because he is doing just that.
This is a masterstroke. All it needs is for sane heads to get together and bash out a compromise.
Least you are consistent on that one but it is entirely beyond my comprehension but first the CPRS resistance and now falling in line with no effective ETS and both times making the ludicrous claim that nothing was in fact better than action.
I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry.
Poroti @ 1892
Even Xenophon just now on Richo “I would vote to repeal the carbon tax if there was an ETS in place”.
Are you able to get your head around anything?
Obviously not!
LaTingle nailing it
http://goo.gl/b0PS4w
LU – I can basically guarantee that you are giving Palmer way too much credit for how much he has thought about this or how much he actually wants to do.
But even if you are correct on his intentions, his legislative initiatives are doomed to failure. He can block changes but none of his initiatives in this area will likely get out of the Senate and will certainly die a death in the House of Reps.
PUP has some leverage over the government, but not enough to actually implement a Palmer-ETS (and I still don’t believe Palmer is serious).
So, in essence all that we have left of the ETS as far as Palmer’s statements go is some vaguely worded intention. Better than absolutely nothing, but not much better.
zoid,
rummel is trying to achieve true Zen unhingement yond unhingement 🙂
sprocket
Yep Tingle gets it
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/25/enter-clive-abbotts-carbon-tax-repeal-takes-centre-stage-politics-live?CMP=twt_gu
8.59am AEST The full jug roll…
All I see is Old White Rich Men in EXPENSIVE BLACK SUITS.
COALITION PARTY & NATS.
Yeah well, if they “die a death”in the Housem then we still have a Carbon Tax and all that goes with it.
Seems like “win-win” to me.
Labor should swallow its pride and meet Palmer half way.
Intelligent, debate – where have we seen THAT in the past couple of years on Climate Change?
Oh btw.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/air-force-resumes-f-35-fighter-jet-flights-2014-6?wt=3
:/
What a waste of 12 billion bucks.
sprocket,
Agree with Tingle’s analysis.
The Libs don’t have the rubber stamp Senate they were expecting. They have serious revenue problems with much of their cuts and increases being voted down.
At this stage the Libs might reconsider the revenue they can obtain from an ETS.
I could see a major backflip coming with or without Tony Abbott.
Well there is only one way forward for Abbott… Call an election on ETS and Carbon Tax.
Best thing about climate predictions is that the Texans will be cooked first along with Qld and WA…gotta love the justice of that
Maybe its time to lock Palmer up in a room with a handle of people who actually understand fibre optics and the NBN.
I am getting royally drunk tonight.
This is the best day in politics since Rudd beat Howard.
Oh, the sweet, sweet irony.
Palmer has just brained Abbott.
Tomorrow morning when they meet for breakfast:
Abbott “are you going to vote to repeal the carbon tax or not”?
Palmer “yes, but you have to support my policy of joining in on an ETS which as everyone knows you vigorously oppose so I get the credit”.
Palmer again “I’ve got your balls in a vice”. 😀
@1927,
Yes, please 🙂
I cant see a way out of it for Abbott. Clive has him so wedged its not funny.
Centre
There was a fixed price before a floating price. Business wanted it. Only 2GB demographics cannot understand the difference between that and a “tax” . There is a price put on pollution. End of.
WWP
We blocked a step backwards in 2009. We supported a modest step forward in 2011. In 2014 we declined to provide cover for Abbott’s budget. Yes, we have been consistent.
Well if you wanted to be consistent you could wander about looking puzzled for a while before throwing up your hands and emitting a world-weary sigh.
You haven’t been paying attention.
Palmer was vague as hell on many things, but he was crystal clear on one thing: PUP will vote to repeal the carbon price. The only proviso he put on that was that the legislation would insist on power price reductions (and Hunt and the government will be happy to put whatever wording PUP needs to that end in the repeal legislation).
The proposed Palmer-ETS would be a separate thing attached to amendments to something else. Whatever these amendments are will probably fail in the Senate, and will certainly fail in the House. It’s an empty gesture.
rummel,
Abbott could call it on those issues. However, the voters would consider broken promises and the unfairness of their “surprise” programme of cuts and destruction of manufacturing jobs.
He’d be slaughtered.
The Lying Friar does not have the balls to go to a DD.
We are stuck with a lame duck PM. Unless the Libs do the honourable thing.
Labor needs to support Clive’s ideas.
Milne looked apoplectic tonight.
The ALP delusionists will never listen, but since the collective rewriting of history is in full swing again it’s worth repeating: in Dec 2009 no one – ALP, Green, Lib, Nat, on PB or in parliament – thought other than it was virtually certain that in less than 12 months an ALP government would be comfortably reelected and the Greens would hold sole balance of power in the Senate. The ALP government opted to try for a Lib-acceptable package through the Senate, knowing that they could get a Green-acceptable package through after the 2010 election.
In those circumstances for the Greens to reject a Lib-acceptable package and hold out for a Green-acceptable package was not some exercise in purity but an utterly rational action that every other political actor would have done in their place.
As it happens, the Greens did hold sole balance of power in the Senate after the 2010 election but the ALP government was not comfortably reelected for reasons almost entirely of its own making, and certainly that involved the Greens peripherally at best. With the benefit of hindsight, knowing how the politics of Abbott played out, the Greens may well have acted differently and voted for the CPRS. But with that benefit every party would have acted differently in the situation.
For ALPbots to criticise in 2014 the actions of the Greems in 2009 for not knowing how events of 2011-2012 were going to play out is, as I said, delusional.
Not if he gets a three way shit fight between PUP, Greens and Labor on a climate Tax going.. Time for Abbott to call it all ‘crap’ and put all the money in to health and education and call and election.
To get to your destination you have to take the first step, wishing you were there doesn’t work.
Sorry for the borked tag and the typo.
I’ll believe Palmer will block the carbon tax abolition if there’s no ETS when I see it.
Too late for that, the mad right though that stripping Health and education was such a good idea.
BB, spot on. You and I are Ad idem on Clive.
Libertarian Unionist, write in clear, cogent English instead of affecting the Fran Barlow style of self attributed etymological superiority, and perhaps some of us will bother to read what you contribute.
Political Alert @political_alert
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Clean Energy Council says Clive Palmer has given a titanic boost to the renewable energy industry: http://ci25.actonsoftware.com/acton/rif/2847/s-04ac-1406/-/l-sf-lead-01e1:18de/q-2337/showPreparedMessage … #auspol
rummel,
Abbott has spent his whole life aspiring to attain the office he currently holds. He won’t put it in jeopardy for CC policy. He might talk a good fight. But, in the end he’ll buckle to real politic.
Howard did the same in 2001 when faced with his political mortality.
Who is this “roger bottomley” and what is he drinking?
Landlord! Give me a double of whatever he’s on!
The bottom line is this: Clive wouldn’t have had Al Gore on the podium with him if he was thinking of a Tony Abbott-type trick.
No ETS. No Carbon Tax repeal. It seems to be that simple.