Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll shows Labor down a point on two-party preferred for the second poll in a row, and a narrowing of Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. guytaur:

    You started this by stating that people dismiss Qanda as having influence at their peril. Well, I’ve just dismissed Qanda as having influence for the reasons I’ve outlined. I don’t watch Sunrise and certainly don’t watch Bolt, and seeing as you didn’t specifically mention those programs, I’m not interested in them.

  3. confessions

    That is your personal choice. However it does not change your reaction to Abbott having tough interviews or making a gaffe on those programmes. Or the opposite.

    Same goes for other politicians. Arguing television has no influence is as bad as denying climate science. A fact is still a fact

  5. guytaur, if you are suggesting that I am attacking Q&A you are wrong.

    I mostly just find it plain boring: a sort of middlebrow version of talkback radio.

    For those of us old enough to remember back that far, it seems like a jazzed-up version of Monday Conference with Robert Moore. But at least that show focused on a different issue every week and wasn’t so dominated by party political point-scoring.

    Yawn….

  6. Confessions

    Of course it does. Its a TV programme. You have just conceded tv has influence.

    It can reasonably be argued that QandA has more influence than most because a large part of its audience tweets a lot as well.

    Its the most interactive political show on television.

  8. guytaur:

    You’re living in a bubble if you think that shit is real. That 4Corners program on the live cattle trade generated more chatter in the office the next day than any Qanda episode which has aired in the intervening years. And clue in, that’d be zilch office chatter about Qanda.

    Qanda is a Jerry Springer show for intellectuals. It doesn’t surprise me that there is a small section of twitter that get off each week on tweeting about it.

  9. Confessions

    You are now arguing how much influence, not if there is influence.

    As I said the influence depends on the audience.

    Plus you are ignoring examples like Germaine Greer talking about Gillard and Jackets

  11. [
    Qanda is a Jerry Springer show for intellectuals. It doesn’t surprise me that there is a small section of twitter that get off each week on tweeting about it.
    ]

    confessions,

    You’re being a bit harsh there … on Jerry Springer! QandA, what a boring, tedious show it is. And you can all take that as a comment.

  12. George Newhouse’s legal action on behalf of the victims of SIEV 221 seems hopeless to me.

    There is no legal obligation to rescue anyone let alone, if you chose to rescue someone, to do so in any particular way.

  13. From one of BK’s links.

    [Mr Hockey’s office said the point of the using the analogy of full-time work was to highlight the ”very high and growing expenditure on welfare in Australia”.]

    I thought it had been shown that both these statements [high and growing] were false?
    The reality is that welfare is ‘low’. relative to other countries, and ‘declining’ in it’s share of GDP?
    Or so I thought I saw somewhere recently.
    Anybody able to help me out with some links – please?

  16. Q&A is really boring, even by the standards of most television. I don’t know how it rates, but I’d be very surprised if it’s widely watched. I just don’t see what the value is in parading the opinionated in front of audiences that already agree/disagree with them. It contributes nothing much to understanding and I long ago gave up watching.

  17. briefly

    QandA according to Nielsen has a large audience. They like it.

    For me a change of host would be a start. I thought there was not much value in 60 minute Town Hall shows but that Richard Carleton made a greatly entertaining host of them

  18. guytaur: perhaps you might like to explain how you see Q&A having influence.

    As I see it, it’s a show watched mainly by people with a keen interest in politics (and, typically have a one-sided view one way or the other). What happens on the show is then relayed by twitter, News 24, blogs and other such channels to more of these types of people. Does it reach many swinging voters? I doubt it.

    In any event, it’s a show which presents a multiplicity of views and it is comparatively rare for one side to score a conclusive “win” over the other.

    Maybe I’m missing something.

  20. MB

    [influence |ˈɪnflʊəns|
    noun
    1 [ mass noun ] the capacity to have an effect on the character, development, or behaviour of someone or something, or the effect itself: the influence of television violence | I was still under the influence of my parents | [ count noun ] : their friends are having a bad influence on them.
    • the power to shape policy or ensure favourable treatment from someone, especially through status, contacts, or wealth: the institute has considerable influence with teachers.
    • [ count noun ] a person or thing with the capacity to have an influence on someone or something: Fiona was a good influence on her.
    2 Physics, archaic electrical or magnetic induction.
    verb [ with obj. ]
    have an influence on: feminist ideas have influenced the law-makers.
    PHRASES
    under the influence informal affected by alcoholic drink or drugs: he was charged with driving under the influence.
    DERIVATIVES
    influenceable adjective,
    influencer noun
    ORIGIN late Middle English: from Old French, or from medieval Latin influentia ‘inflow’, from Latin influere, from in- ‘into’ + fluere ‘to flow’. The word originally had the general sense ‘an influx, flowing matter’, also specifically (in astrology) ‘the flowing in of ethereal fluid (affecting human destiny)’. The sense ‘imperceptible or indirect action exerted to cause changes’ was established in Scholastic Latin by the 13th cent., but not recorded in English until the late 16th cent.]

    You just described QandA influence

  23. I don’t watch qandA, largely because when I did it seemed to be questions and no answers.

    It seems to me it merely provides a forum for politicians of both sides and their followers to recite the party lines.

    And Tony jones did not allow debate to develop, often cutting people of just when the discussion looked like getting interesting.

    The program may have served one purpose, it gave the world a good look at Sophie Mirabella

    As for its influence. Well I don’t know, there is a lot of noise out there and it may or may not add to it.

    But Abbott won’t go on it.

  25. [121
    shellbell

    Q&A will attract more viewers if it can raise someone from the dead to host it.]

    There are already plenty of zombies abroad in tv-land

  28. Latest Morgan is out, their graph looks a bit weird.

    It has the current result at 55.5/44.5, and points to the previous multimode fortnightly as 56.5/43.5 but look at their graph and it shows a peak for the ALP at about 61 2PP on the graph.

    Perhaps the graph shows the weekly result, but the report shows fortnightly ?

    It shows the consistent trend since the election persists.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5635-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-june-16-2014-201406160825

  30. P/127…yes, as I realised after I posted. The issue will not fade away, no matter the politics or the spinning. Labor are on the right side of events…have to persist on it.

  31. Morgan state breakdowns show the ALP Federal vote from Victoria has increased from 55 to 61% in a fortnight, perhaps influenced by the Geoff Shaw Chaos. There is larger error rate in the state breakdowns, but i dont think that alone would explain 6%

    Pity Neilson and Newspoll didnt come through with their Vic results last week.

  32. A show I watch when the issue is of interest is Insight. Jenny Brockie does a great job.

    However it does not have the audience of QandA.

    Insight is better value when the issue interests me. Otherwise I don’t watch it. I suspect this is true for many.

  33. Ta guytaur

    2 other matters.

    Stephen Koukoulas has written this, and I’m not sure if it has been noted here:
    http://thekouk.com/blog/the-australian-s-claim-on-tobacco-go-up-in-smoke.html#.U59–U2KCUm

    Here’s the problem.
    According to the Kouk the Australian has placed on its front page an article which is wrong [putting it politely] concerning cigarette consumption since plain packaging.

    The ABS stats, as reported by the Kouk, show that the GG is wrong.

    Who will the public believe?

    Later Ill get onto a Possum inspired article about the relationship between net satisfaction of the PM and LOTO and consequent 2PP. Got things to do first.

  34. Sir Mad

    They have no choice. To do otherwise is to redo the whole budget.

    If enough is blocked we could very well be looking at a DD.

    😀

  36. Shellbell

    Remember the questions about how long it took the navy to arrive with the Christmas Island rescue?

    That may be a basis for legal action.

  38. Nice to see that Abbott’s disapproval rating went up while he was parading his wares in the US – 62% is not a good look.

  40. Darn

    62% got Gillard dumped for Rudd.

    The LNP should change fast and undo the toxic budget if they want to win the next election.

    They won’t. They actually believe in the budget.

  41. @political_alert: Health Minister Peter Dutton will launch the e-Mental Health Support Service at 11.30am this morning at Parliament House #auspol

  44. Mark Butler has sent out an email which – due to the quirks of yahoo’s new email system – I can’t paste here.

    He reaffirms that Labor is commited to a legal cap on carbon emissions, enforced via a market based mechanism, and support for renewable energy – he describes these as ‘two unshakeable pillars’.

  45. Dave

    That comment is for Senate voters not ordinary voters.

    So it will be noted. The arrogance will backfire, Makes it more likely PUP will listen to Greens and Labor not LNP and DLP.

    Hopefully its going to be enough to see a DD.

  48. 2 matters.
    Firstly, I checked out Media Watch for their story on Kouk and the IPA and declining cigarette consumption [ta again guytaur].

    I was amused to see this:
    [The Australian’s editor Clive Mathieson …. also told us Christian Kerr is not an IPA member ..]

    Hmm.
    Interesting.
    Have a look at this – from the IPA website:
    https://www.ipa.org.au/people/christian-kerr

    I’ll get onto Possum, netsats, PMs and LOTOs later.

  50. [144
    zoomster

    Mark Butler has sent out an email which – due to the quirks of yahoo’s new email system – I can’t paste here.

    He reaffirms that Labor is commited to a legal cap on carbon emissions, enforced via a market based mechanism, and support for renewable energy – he describes these as ‘two unshakeable pillars’.]

    I am very pleased to read this!!

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