Seat of the week: Gorton

Labor front-bencher Brendan O’Connor is securely ensconced in what remains Labor’s sixth safest seat, despite a 7.5% swing to the Liberals at last year’s election.

Red numbers indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Gorton is located at Melbourne’s strongly Labor-voting western edge, covering the rapidly growing fringe suburbs of Derrimut and Deer Park in the south, Caroline Springs and Kings Park in the centre and Hillside in the north, and from there extending westwards through semi-rural areas to the satellite town of Melton. The latter area was gained with the redistribution that took effect at the 2013 election, adding 32,000 voters who had previously been in Lalor. This was counterbalanced at the city end through transfers of 33,000 voters at Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lakes to Calwell in the north, 9000 west of the rail line in St Albans to Maribyrnong in the centre, and 13,000 in Ardeer and Sunshine West to Gellibrand in the south. This boosted the ample Labor margin of 22.2% to 23.6%, which was then cut at the election by a 7.5% swing to the Liberals.

The electorate was created at the previous redistribution ahead of the 2004 election in place of abolished Burke, which furnished it with 12,000 voters around Sydenham and also included Melton and areas beyond the city to the north. This area was covered by Corio prior to pre-war urbanisation and the expansion of parliament in 1949, after which it was accommodated by shifting aggregations of Lalor (created in 1949), Burke (1969) and Calwell (1984). With the exception of one defeat in Lalor at the Liberals’ statewide high water mark in 1966, each of these three seats has been won by Labor at every election since their creation. Gorton’s inaugural member was Brendan O’Connor, who had entered parliament as member for Burke in 2001. His exchange of the predominantly rural outskirts seats of Burke for one anchored in outer suburban Melbourne was a welcome development, boosting his margin from 5.5% to 20.2%.

O’Connor rose through Labor ranks as an official with the Australian Services Union with factional backing from the Ferguson Left, which is now more likely to be identified under its formal name of the Independent Left. He was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006 and then to the junior ministry after the 2007 election victory, serving first in employment participation, then in home affairs in June 2009. Justice was added to his workload after the 2010 election, and in December 2011 he was shifted to human services. O’Connor stood by factional colleague Julia Gillard during Rudd’s leadership challenges in February 2012 and June 2013, and won promotion to cabinet as Small Business Minister on the former occasion. Further promotion to the troublesome immigration portfolio followed in February 2013, and he did well to be moved to employment after Rudd assumed the leadership the following June. Since the September 2013 election defeat he has served in shadow cabinet in the employment and workplace relations portfolios.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,728 comments on “Seat of the week: Gorton”

Comments Page 1 of 35
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  1. I have never seen the amount of angst towards a government as there is to the Abbottonians. People I have never heard politics from are speaking out.

    The question is, is it mainly Labor supporters venting their spleen or are there a lot of swinging voters expressing their concern over the deception which has occurred?

    If the latter, then Labor is likely to stay way in front until the next election, unless a major game-changer occurs.

  2. Yes, interesting comment ausdavo. Certainly the conversations I have been having with Lib voters see them being defensive rather than their usual hubristic self.

    The line they seem to be running is that the Tories have to take this drastic action because of the mess Labor created. I bat that away with AAA, low inflation, etc. I also say that what’s the big deal about surplus budgets.

    I am now going to run with this excellent article by Seccombe. It’s all ideological.

    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/05/31/abbotts-faceless-men-the-ipa/1401458400#.U4o-JtoaySM

    By the way, have you noticed how quiet Hockey has been of late?

  3. Great article roger, especially the IPA monopoly position on the Drum which PB’ers have noted here.

    I haven’t read this week’s Saturday paper yet. My newsagency only started carrying it a week ago as it’s only recently been available in Queensland over the counter. I normally wait until after the weekend.

    Re Hockey, has Credlin told him to “pull his head in” or is he getting ready to try and roll ABBOTT?

    Personally, I think the former, as the govt. would likely gain little from a Hockey takeover in the present situation.

  4. Good Morning

    ausdavo

    If there is a leadership change it is going to go to Turnbull or a cleanskin like Wyatt Roy. Yes in Turnbull’s case utegate is less damage than the budget.

    Otherwise there is no point to a leadership change. A leadership change means redoing the budget. Its the policy of betrayal people hate.

  5. [Immigration Minister Scott Morrison’s portfolios employ more than 95 communications staff and spin doctors, costing taxpayers at least $8 million a year.

    Details released to the Senate show the departments of Immigration, Border Protection and Australian Customs have 85 ongoing and 10 non-ongoing staff responsible for media monitoring, internal communication and public relations.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/millions-spent-to-employ-spin-doctors-in-immigration-department-20140531-39azn.html#ixzz33KaJFpmJ ]

    Given they aren’t communicating anything, this is surely a joke?

  6. [
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, June 1, 2014 at 7:26 am | Permalink
    …
    Otherwise there is no point to a leadership change. A leadership change means redoing the budget. Its the policy of betrayal people hate.
    ]
    Will the right wing nutters keep control to the next election, in which case the election will throw them out; or will the moderates get control before, in which case I think the outcome of the election is less certain.

    If the moderates get control, how do you throw out a budget?

  7. Spot the emphasis!

    [LABOR and Liberal MPs have defied the Prime Minister’s edict to stop employing their wives and other family members after legal advice warned of compensation claims for ­unlawful dismissal.]

    [In a bizarre loophole, the Abbott Government has allowed MPs two-month’s grace, from November 2013 to January 1 this year, to keep employing relatives who were hired in that time, with all contracts signed before January to be honoured.]

  9. Confessions, in the real world it would be a joke but we have slipped into some kind of alternate universe. I don’t know whether there’s any way back.
    I dreamt about Abbott last night. I was a young public servant on a committee advising on environmental policy. Abbott was present and everyone was telling him what he wanted to hear, but I decided that I had to speak out. I was terrified because I knew that I was going to lose my job and was facing six months with no income support.
    I’ve been waking in the mornings still very tired – hardly surprising if that ‘s the kind of thing that’s going through my subconscious all night.
    I’m off to the Philippines tomorrow for three weeks. Perhaps I need to take a break from Australian politics while I’m away.

  10. guytaur

    [If there is a leadership change it is going to go to Turnbull or a cleanskin like Wyatt Roy. Yes in Turnbull’s case utegate is less damage than the budget.]

    The assumption there is that ‘Utegate’ was what did Malcolm in. What Utegate did was reduce his polling figures, which made it easier for them to get rid of him.

    The Liberals weren’t comfortable with Malcolm as leader, full stop – at at time when there were more moderates in the party than there are now.

    The Right campaigned internally against him virtually from Day One (and often not so internally). That Turnbull recognised this is evident from the stance he took on issues such as asylum seekers – he was as strident on ‘Stop the Boats’ as anyone.

    With Abbott, the moderates recognised that the only way to shut the Right up and thus be able to present a united front to the world was to give them a leader they wanted. Now, of course, there are even fewer moderates then there was then – they’ve resigned, and there’s been an election which saw candidates who (to a large extent) put their names forward in the expectation of an Abbott PMship.

    As for the idea of a cleanskin (Wyatt Roy is a silly suggestion) that won’t work either. They might chance it were they in Opposition, but handing the PMship to someone who hasn’t done the miles would get a lot of backs up.

    You’re assuming that panicking backbenchers make rational decisions in their own best interest, and that they view the world the same way the voters do.

    They don’t necessarily see the budget as the problem, otherwise it would take more than some putative tax cuts to calm them down.

    It’s also quite likely – given that there weren’t these rumblings during the campaign – that the backbenchers, by and large, lack the economic nous to understand the false assumptions that underline the budget.

    So the average backbencher likely sees the budget as a necessary measure, given the need to tackle Labor’s ‘waste’, and just thinks it’s being sold badly.

  13. Dee

    [LABOR and Liberal MPs have defied the Prime Minister’s edict to stop employing their wives and other family members after legal advice warned of compensation claims for ­unlawful dismissal.]

    I didn’t think unlawful dismissal covered electoral officers (I worked as one for a short period).

    Given the sensitive nature of the job, MPs HAVE to be able to fire people instantaneously, and with no questions asked or answered.

    Mirabella, for example, fired at least two staff members I can think of on the spot (one was found in the stationary closet with someone else and the other misbehaved himself at the Winter Ball) with no apparent consequences.

  14. frednk

    You go back to a Labor budget. Tweak it slightly to make it look Liberal and on your way.

    Desperate times desperate measures.

    This could happen with senate blocking happening

    However before that happens I think Abbott will call an election to save his leadership.

  15. It seems that in the new atmosphere of austerity, William has decided to omit links to the following thread.

    Or perhaps he’s just weary from overwork.

  16. zoomster

    My post started with if there is a leadership change. I rather doubt it myself for the reasons you cite.

    Without the MP’s seeing a need to change policy the political damage from a leadership change is too great.

  17. Turnbull, re: Utegate

    During the time of utegate Turnbull was also facing a lawsuit over his involvement in HIH which has since been settled out of court.

    Plus, his stance on climate change.

  18. [I didn’t think unlawful dismissal covered electoral officers (I worked as one for a short period).]

    Paradoxically, MPs can’t fire their staffers because they’re female, or gay, or black, or have a disability, but they can fire them because they don’t like them, or because they said something the MP disagreed with, or indeed for no reason at all. I agree that this paradox is necessary given the nature of the jobs.

  19. [In recent months, as it has become apparent Mr Morrison has ”stopped the boats”, his colleagues say he has become more relaxed and is more available than other ministers who are ”up to their necks” with problems.]

    Maybe that’s why Morrison is seen as a possible successor to Abbott. Someone find him a problem, quickly!

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/spin-costs-immigration-minister-scott-morrison-8m-a-year-20140531-39b6k.html#ixzz33KgnwbV0

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A bit late this morning – but after all it is Sunday!

    Didn’t Pyne say “some fees will go up, some will go down”? No indications from universities yet on the latter proposition.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/uni-course-fees-expected-to-double-analysis-shows-20140531-39b0b.html
    Morriscum’s spin department costs us $8m per year. And our reputation a lot more than that!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/millions-spent-to-employ-spin-doctors-in-immigration-department-20140531-39azn.html
    Peter FitzSimoms packs the scrum against The Parrot and US guns.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/whats-up-alan-jones-isnt-roger-rogerson-a-mate-20140530-zrswa.html
    Clive James’ last performance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/stage/clive-james-jokes-about-tony-abbotts-daughters-20140601-zru39.html
    The way they’re going the dead will be the only demographic the Libs will have left!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-party-taps-older-supporters-for-bequests-20140531-39azl.html
    No wonder Bernardi slipped in through the back door.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-senator-cory-bernardi-dodges-student-protest-20140531-39bdd.html
    The odious Access Ministries fights back. Get out of our kids’ lives I say!
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/jesus-is-a-person-not-just-a-swear-word-viral-video-promotes-chaplains-in-schools-funding-20140531-39b3n.html
    Abbott takes us back to the science dark ages. Will Pyne reintroduce Phlogiston Theory to the curriculum?
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/jesus-is-a-person-not-just-a-swear-word-viral-video-promotes-chaplains-in-schools-funding-20140531-39b3n.html

  21. Wasn’t there an instance last year or the year before of a Liberal staffer trying unfair dismissal claim after they were sacked?

    It may even have been connected with Ashby/Slipper.

  23. victoria

    Overnight you mentioned seeing Abbott reading in a car. I suppose we should be relieved that he does read papers. His statement so often seem to rise out of thin air.

  24. If the Libs replace Abbott (and I don’t think they will*), I the replacement will be Bishop. Hockey would just be replacing Dumb with Dumber, and Turnbull is not acceptable to the IPA.

    * Warning: I didn’t think they’d replace Rudd or Gillard either, so what do I know?

  25. Brainless indeed.

    [This budget has been decried as heartless; unfortunately, it is also brainless. The sun provides the Earth with enough energy in one hour to power civilisation for a year. There are already 19 markets worldwide where solar PV panels match or undercut fossil fuel electricity prices, without subsidy. The sun’s rays will soon dominate and underpin the entire global economy. This government’s denial of both sun and science can only be described as pre-Copernican.

    The attacks on renewable energy have been performed without mandate, justified by falsehoods and are economically counterproductive. While Treasurer Joe Hockey finds wind turbines “disgusting”, the ideological overtones of the budget suggest a darker, Randian philosophy behind this offensive. I have invested my career in solar power; I am trying to build the motor that drives the world. However, Abbott is shutting that motor down. While he may talk of direct action, his only actions to date have been to direct renewable energy investment and industry overseas.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/science-going-back-to-dark-ages-20140531-zrqmx.html#ixzz33KirWr2H

  26. Morrison is the only senior Lib wjo has done what he said he would do – he has stopped the boats. But he is not exactly a charismatic figure. Maybe a Bishop-Morrison ticket, with Morrison getting Defence, Turnbull Treasury, Robb Foreign Affairs and Hockey Ulan Bataar.

  28. I knew we’d start seeing this type of rhetoric from electricity pricing regulators.

    [The Queensland Competition Authority (QCA) has confirmed the standard domestic tariff for electricity will rise by 13.6 per cent as of July, costing the average household an extra $190 a year.

    But the QCA, the body that regulates the state’s power prices, says prices will only go up by 5.1 per cent if the Federal Government’s carbon tax is repealed.]

    In other words they are using carbon ‘tax’ repeal as simply an excuse to jack up prices more than they ordinarily would’ve.

  29. This comes under perverse stuff that I should have known but didn’t, but might have guessed if I’d thought about it, even though I hadn’t.

    There are seven states in the US that bar atheists from public office.
    The obvious suspects are on the list:

    Texas; Mississippi, South Carolina; Arkansas; Tennessee … But Pennsylvania and Maryland are a surprise.

  30. I’m warming to Peter Dutton as the replacement for the Lying Friar. Anything to get him out of the Health portfolio…….

  31. Morriscums problem might arise at his starting point. How he got the job as the Lib candidate for the Seat Of Cook.

    The faceless men that got rid of that rascally “Lebo” bloke so the Happy Clapper could have the spot.

  32. Psephos:

    [Paradoxically, MPs can’t fire their staffers because they’re female, or gay, or black, or have a disability, but they can fire them because they don’t like them, or because they said something the MP disagreed with, or indeed for no reason at all. I agree that this paradox is necessary given the nature of the jobs.]

    A new twist on DADT 😉

  33. And from the Land of the Free –

    Texas GOP openly announces it is anti-gay.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/05/31/texas-gop-publicly-announces-its-anti-gay/
    And don’t Texans love their guns!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/05/30/go-gun-toting-supporters-tx-rancher-challenge-feds-government-land/
    One to watch. Has the NRA finally met its match?
    http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/has-nra-finally-met-its-match-richard-martinez-father-isla-vista-shooting-victim

  34. Psephos

    [If solar is so economically superior, why does it need government incentives?]

    Because of the Fossil Fuellers’ spin, which makes investors and consumers nervous.

  35. [27
    Psephos
    Posted Sunday, June 1, 2014 at 8:08 am | PERMALINK
    If solar is so economically superior, why does it need government incentives?
    ]

    You should have a listen what the President has just said about this…

    http://bit.ly/Slthpc

  38. Psephos

    [If solar is so economically superior, why does it need government incentives?]

    In the longer run, I am not sure it does, but it’s needed for not expressly economic reasons in the shorter run. The structure of the costs of the existing FHC system gives it an advantage, because much of the cost is externalised and/or won’t become liable until much later. Much of the cost of solar is in the initial installation rather than recurrent.

    Also, the technology continues to develop and there is an economic risk for those moving early (much like Moore’s Law and IT purchasing).

    Not that it is relevant, but the actual extent of subsidy for solar is generally overstated whereas the effective subsidies or other assistance for the FHC system tend to be passed over quite lightly.

  39. Have a great day everyone.

    Off to open the newsagency (9.00am) and sell heaps of Murdoch’s Sunday Mail to the now more aware public!

  40. Regarding solar (and wind) economics the existing power transmission and connection grid represents a large sunk cost designed and built to support coal fired power generators. The grid actually costs as much or more to build and run as the power plants. So solar and wind have to be very efficient to beat this, if they require new grid links, or have to carry a share of the grid running cost.

    I have said here many times that if Labor was serious about renewables they should have built s new grid link between Adelaide and Melbourne along the SE/SW coast. It would have opened up a huge range of wind sites. Same issue on SA west coast.

  41. So we spent $150,000 for 2 days of ‘Prince’ Harry to cavort with the Abbott girls (check the photo in the linked article). But he appreciated our largesse

    [Prince Harry appears to have enjoyed the hospitality. An AAP journalist covering the royal trip reported: “Before his departure from Sydney, Prince Harry told reporters Australia already felt like a second home and he was very sad to be leaving.”
    “I just can’t get the time off work these days,” Prince Harry said.
    “The next time I come back you will be struggling to get rid of me I am sure.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/prince-harrys-trip-to-australia-cost-taxpayers-150000-20140531-39aqd.html#ixzz33KpPSlOm

  42. Psephos,

    [If solar is so economically superior, why does it need government incentives?]
    That displays surprising ignorance for someone of your experience, but the answers are self-evident to anyone who understands how ideas become market realities.

    Even once the science is done, it takes millions of billions of dollars to bring inventions to harness the sun’s power into production. And even you should realise how hard it is to raise money on the expectations of future profit. The value of bodies such as Commercialisation Australia, set up by Labor’s Kim Carr, is that the fund such ventures through the so called “Valley of Death” where funding is short but the commercial potential massively strong. of course the Liberals have now killed that dead to, tragically.

  43. Zoomster

    [Mirabella, for example, fired at least two staff members I can think of on the spot (one was found in the stationary closet with someone else and the other misbehaved himself at the Winter Ball) with no apparent consequences.]

    I suppose it was good that the closet was stationary, rather than moving about at the time. 😉

  44. BK thanks for the links. Have I missed them or were there no major media appearances by Abbott or Hockey so far this weekend? Have they given up trying to sell the budget turkey? Looks like they have “bunkered down” hoping the rage will abate. It will not, especially when people start paying all the new taxes, sorry, levies.

  45. I’m currently in Paris. France has 59 nuclear power plants, which generate 75% of its electricity. In 52 years of nuclear they’ve never had an accident. France has the cheapest electricity in western Europe and the lowest CO2 emissions per unit of electricity generated in the world. Not surprisingly, the French find this whole debate a bit puzzling.

  46. Just sayin

    That is true, but wind is already competitive with brown coal at generation cost. The other add ons kill it.

    In SA, of every $100 electricity bill, about 30 goes to the generator, about 35 to the distributor, and about 35 to the retailer. This is ignoring taxes.

  47. BK

    [Will Pyne reintroduce Phlogiston Theory to the curriculum?
    ]

    Now there is a word I have not seen in a while. As a joke one of the chemistry teachers at high school kept among the bottles on the chemicals shelf an empty bottle labeled phlogiston.

  48. Pesphos

    Thanks for mentioning French nuclear. You could also add Germany, Sweden, Finland and South Korea, who have never had an accident either. All the countries using the later (French) gen 2 technology (cold water reactors) have been fine. The early US/USSR reactor designs were the problem.

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