Fadden
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| Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Fadden covers the northern part of the Gold Coast municipality, from Gaven and Labrador in the south through Coomera, Pimpama and Ormeau to Logan River in the north, with the Pacific Motorway forming most of its western boundary. This area’s intensive population growth has caused the electorate to be progressively drawn into the Gold Coast since its creation in 1977, at which time it contained none of its present territory, instead covering outer southern Brisbane and the Gold Coast’s rural hinterland. The redistribution caused by the expansion of parliament in 1984 drew it into Brisbane, extending as far northwards as Salisbury and Rochedale, with the Logan River as its southern boundary. It first infringed upon the Gold Coast when it acquired Coomera at the 1996 election, the migration being completed with the exchange of Redland Bay in the north for Southport in the south at the 2004 election. The ongoing population explosion caused it to shed nearly 14,000 voters inland of its current boundary at the most recent Queensland redistribution before the 2010 election.
With the exception of 1983, Fadden in its various guises has been won at every election by the conservatives, meaning the the Liberal Party prior to the 2010 merger and the Liberal National Party thereafter. The inaugural member was Don Cameron, who had held Griffith for the Liberals since 1966. The 1975-engorged margin was whittled away at the 1977 and 1980 elections, then overturned with David Beddall’s victory for Labor with the election of the Hawke government. Cameron returned to parliament a year later at a by-election caused by Jim Killen’s retirement in Moreton, which became the third seat he represented. The 1984 redistribution made Fadden notionally Liberal, causing David Beddall to jump ship for Rankin. The seat was then won for the Liberals by David Jull, who had held the seat of Bowman from 1975 until his defeat in 1983. Jull’s margins were less than 5% until 1996, but generally well into double digits thereafter.
Jull was succeeded on his retirement at the 2007 election by Stuart Robert, a former army intelligence officer. Robert was said to have played a role in “rounding up support” for Tony Abbott ahead of his challenge to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership in December 2009, and was elevated afterwards to shadow parliamentary secretary in the defence portfolio. He was further promoted after the 2010 election to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of defence science, technology and personnel, which was rebadged as Assistant Defence Minister following the 2013 election victory.
Moncrieff
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| Teal numbers indicate two-party majority for the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Moncrieff covers the central Gold Coast from Miami north through Surfers Paradise to Nerang Head, and inland to Nerang and Highland Park. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, previous to which the entirety of the Gold Coast had been accommodated by McPherson since 1949, and by Moreton beforehand. Moncrieff originally extended deep into rural territory at Beaudesert, before assuming its current coastal orientation with Beaudesert’s transfer to Forde in 1996. Prior to Moncrieff’s creation the entirety of the Gold Coast had been accommodated by McPherson, which had itself been created with the previous expansion of parliament in 1949. The Gold Coast had originally been contained within the electorate of Moreton, which has since migrated into Brisbane’s southern suburbs. The area has had conservative representation without interruption since 1906, with McPherson passing from Country Party to Liberal Party control in 1972, and Moncrieff being in Liberal and more recently Liberal National Party hands since its creation.
Steven Ciobo assumed the seat at the 2001 election after the retirement of its inaugural member, Kathy Sullivan, who had previously been a Senator since 1974, establishing what remains a record as the longest serving female member of federal parliament. Ciobo emerged through Liberal ranks as a member of the Right faction, associated with former ministers Santo Santoro and Warwick Parer and state party powerbroker Michael Caltabiano. He rose to the shadow ministry in the small business portfolio after the defeat of the Howard government, which was elevated to a shadow cabinet position when Malcolm Turnbull ascended to the leadership in September 2008. However, he was demoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolios of tourism, arts, youth and sport when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009 and relegated to the back bench after the August 2010 election, which was generally reckoned to be a consequence of his support for Turnbull. Following the 2013 election victory he won promotion to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer.
It’s bleeding obvious that Tony&Co. have always intended to construct their Fairy Tale ( Horror to most) ….. The countries finances were f****ed by Labor & WE have to fix it up & the only way to do it is Cut the sending AND increase GST if we must & are forced to by the States.
For Labor to win they have to convince Australia that cutting spending as proposed is inequitable & therefore UnAustralian ( not easy to overcome electorate self interest & greed here).
More importantly they have to slay the Debt / Deficit dragon & expose the manipulation of long term fiscal position relative to other OECD countries.
The problem Labor has is that the GST should be increased AND income tax collection improved… the most equitable way for this is remove exemptions, trust arrangements ect.
Australia is overall one of the lowest taxing countries in the OECD & most efficient Government sector
AFR & Lib(ertarian )s love to focus totally on personal tax rates, ignoring how the top marginal don’t actually pay it!
http://www.afr.com/p/national/top_rate_nation_oecd_would_make_VgqkALrQY8BEAPEDigQD8I
Australia’s total tax take is 29 LOWEST out of 34 in the OECD
http://www.budget.gov.au/2012-13/content/glossy/tax_reform/html/tax_overview_02.htm
That Labor wasted 6 years of Government with a fuckwit treasurer like Swan is unbelievable .
Not only couldn’t he win the overall argument the idiot kept promising “surplus .. Surplus.. surplus” when he had NO control over vital factors… .. he gave Tony the shotgun, loaded it & pulled the trigger …. another bleeding Queenslander
I probably should have read the whole discussion. By “the levy” I thought you were discussing the so-called deficit levy. Apologies.
48
[Rex Douglas
Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 10:10 am | PERMALINK
Daniel Andrews announces a Victorian ALP Govt will establish a far reaching Royal Commission into family violence to begin early 2015.
An excellent initiative]
Indeed!
Interesting that the Age has no mention of Carlton’s SMH story. In fact they have purged him completely as one of the paper’s columnists – but continue to list other Sydney based writers.
Morning all. What an array of Liberal dissarray in the papers this morning. And it is all their own doing. Abbott exposed as a liar, Hockey as a tea party treasurer, the rest of NSW liberals as corrupt as NSW Labor, and Hadley and their right wing media hounds turning on each other when there is noone from Labor to bite.
People warned wrongly of the unhingement of the mad monk when he failed to get the PM seat in 2010. But the unhingement is happening now that he has power. Abbott and co cannot help themselves from unleashing their own right wing nutbar ideology, that they got from reading the right wing republican tripe while they were in opposition. The only Liberal party member I know in Adelaide actually took leave to go to the US republican convention in 2010. It shows.
I will be amazed if there is not a swing to Labor in the next poll. Shorten must continue to oppose this assault on Australian values. He is looking a stronger leader as a result.
Fran B
No worries.
Yes, they consider the electorate very gullible.
My instinct is that fed/state ALP will wave a GST change through their parliaments with compensation for low income earners.
A great shame neither major party will address tax loopholes for big business and the wealthy.
The linkage of the doctor copayment to medical research expenditure is a sham.
But the bigger sham is the linkage of the fuel excise and diesel rebate to roads spending.
It is the responsibility of government to build infrastructure. Fullstop. the funding comes from general revenue, and road building has to compete with all other budget items. How it is prioritised in the spend is the choice of the government.
Hence the NBN is stuffed because of this government’s choices.
One pot of revenue gold available for harvest from the tax expenditure side is the diesel fuel rebate. There may be an argument to preserve the rebate for agriculture, but to preserve it for miners is hogwash.
That they don’t use the roads is crap ….. an excuse by Abbott to protect the Ginas.
Tell that to all young people who pay the medicare levy or private health insurance and go for years without using any health service.
Tell it to childless people whose tax goes on education.
Tell that to those who have an ethical stance against huge defence expenditure.
Fuel excise is what it is …. a very effective, covert method of collecting tax from anyone who goes near a bowser. Labor should start arguing that the miners’ exemption via the diesel rebate is a con job.
The linkage of the doctor copayment to medical research expenditure is a sham.
But the bigger sham is the linkage of the fuel excise and diesel rebate to roads spending.
It is the responsibility of government to build infrastructure. Fullstop. the funding comes from general revenue, and road building has to compete with all other budget items. How it is prioritised in the spend is the choice of the government.
Hence the NBN is stuffed because of this government’s choices.
One pot of revenue gold available for harvest from the tax expenditure side is the diesel fuel rebate. There may be an argument to preserve the rebate for agriculture, but to preserve it for miners is hogwash.
That they don’t use the roads is crap ….. an excuse by Abbott to protect the Ginas.
Tell that to all young people who pay the medicare levy or private health insurance and go for years without using any health service.
Tell it to childless people whose tax goes on education.
Tell that to those who have an ethical stance against huge defence expenditure.
Fuel excise is what it is …. a very effective, covert method of collecting tax from anyone who goes near a bowser. Labor should start arguing that the miners’ exemption via the diesel rebate is a con job.
Father Bob will be guest speaker at tomorrow’s rally at the melbourne state Library.
No doubt many students will be in attendance protesting the changes to higher education.
I will hopefully be in attendance with my daughter
BK, again your Dawn Patrol links are hugely appreciated!
That a NSW election campaign will commence in 7 months is certainly real enough, so a spanking new Premier, with no end in sight to the volcanic corruption eruptions spewing out of ICAC, might not reckon that playing his part in Abbott’s budget “cunning plan” was perfectly timed.
And whether Baird’s ubiquitous soundbite, “a kick in the guts”, was “real” or not, it seems to this old student of Labor Party history (since the Punic Wars) that Labor’s former National President Neville Wran would have advocated that a Labor LOTO quote it his budget reply speech.
Dave
Rabbott is counting on the outrage/anger exhausting itself into acceptance.
I read an article where Liberal insiders said they are confident acceptance will occur because Shorten is incapable of maintaining the pace.
It’s very difficult to maintain the rage and takes someone with a particular skill set, an agitator such as the Rabbott to keep fanning the flames.
Can the ALP effectively agitate without switching the voters off? Long distance between now and the next election.
IMO, that’s why the ALP would welcome a DD.
Quick result before the apathy sets in.
vic,
I’m not sure another RC is the right approach to domestic violence.
Sure, there is a need for a wide ranging inquiry in to the issue. However, it needs to be research based and focus on the root causes, social acceptance and advocate solutions that will reduce and eventually eradicate this social scourge.
So all issues including drugs, ethnic and societal prejudices, mental illness, financial distress, breach of AVOs etc need to be investigated.
Unfortunately, RCs tend to be adversarial affairs with the primary focus on allocating blame. So, I worry that the whole thing becomes a “man bashing” exercise simply because of the structure of the investigative device.
Approximately 70 people a year are murdered/die because of domestic violence. Most of these are women. It’s a blight on our allegedly civilised way of life.
I am simply uncertain that a legalistic forum is the most appropriate investigative process in this case.
Dee
I cant see how people will be apathetic with the assault on medicare, uni fees, pension cuts etc, as the full impact of these changes will be felt in the next two years rather than now
GG
A RC will draw many bodies to give their stats, evidence etc as to domestic violence. A RC is a full ranging inquiry.
I get the feeling that the term RC bothers you
Dee@22
Yesterday on the car radio, the news bullitin was mocking Baird for having fire in his belly about the $80 Billion cut when it was announced and yesterday in abbott’s presence was like a lap dog.
GG #63
Daniel Andrews listed all the issues you mention.
This RC would be very wide reaching.
vic,
Correct!
For the reasons I articulated in my post.
It’s simply not the appropriate processs to conduct such an inquiry.
GG
What Rex D said
From previous page
50
victoria
Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 10:14 am | PERMALINK
Has this been posted.
Michael Gordon
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/a-fight-to-the-death-for-two-leaders-in-denial-20140516-zrf7s.html
[ Dee
Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink
Dave
Rabbott is counting on the outrage/anger exhausting itself into acceptance. ]
Dee
Yes – thats the tactic but people will still be suffering with even worse to come.
Voters know what they have to do to enable a start to be made to fix this.
Shortens made a start but a long way to go until election 2016.
Victoria
[I cant see how people will be apathetic with the assault on medicare, uni fees, pension cuts etc, as the full impact of these changes will be felt in the next two years rather than now]
It doesn’t make sense does it?
But the voters elected Rabbott even though they didn’t like or trust him and had NFI what he stood for.
Video of friday forum on Lateline last night
Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer, Steve Ciobo, and Opposition Communications spokesman, Jason Clare, join Emma Alberici to discuss the Budget fallout.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s4006490.htm
Everyone can forget about the GP tax.
It’s dead, as ALP, PUP and Greens Party have announced they will reject it in the senate.
vic and Rex,
The resort to a judicial inquiry is a sure means to not achieve much.
The most recent similar type of inquiry is the Bushfire RC which ended up being a shit fight about whether Christine Nixon should have gone to dinner.
Somehow, the tragedy was recuced to a focus on personalities and blame shifting. It was actually a terrible natural event that overwhelmed the available resources.
I’ve been up to Kinglake and surrounds in recent times and the undergrowth is returning. So, a RC only fulfilled the needs to have the drama of personal tragedy played out. The lessons of that day are gradually being eroded from our consciousness and no doubt we will be doomed to repeat the whole tragedy again at some unspecified time in the future.
What needs to be pointed out is that labor went to the last election with EVERY spending initiative full costed. They even hopped into super rip-offs and car tax breaks to make ends meet. So why is everyone running around saying that labor needs to find big new revenue streams. As mentioned above, there is even a medicare levy to pay for the NDIS.
Kevin,
The reason is that no one was listening and facts and reality were not considered important considerations when all the voters wanted to do is get rid of the dysfunctional Labor Government.
http://www.news.com.au/national/laurie-oakes-treasurer-joe-hockey-wears-blame-for-federal-budget/story-e6frfkp9-1226920713691
[Laurie Oakes: Treasurer Joe Hockey wears blame for Federal Budget
May 16, 2014 12:00AM
JOHN Scales, the experienced pollster who runs JWS Research, was out in the field quickly the day after the Budget, exploring voters’ reactions. And the initial verdict was clear. Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey had been too hard on people at the bottom of the income scale.
Or rather, Hockey had. Discussion in focus groups made up of people from four marginal Melbourne electorates suggested the Treasurer was carrying the can. The Prime Minister’s name was rarely raised without prompting.
“This is early indication stuff,” Scales says. It is presumably something the Government will try to deal with, though, because the coalition’s own pollsters would have reported the same thing.
Whether on their own behalf or out of concern for others, those in the JWS samples were very worried about the impact on lower income earners — particularly the elderly.
They had heard the Government’s message about all sections of society sharing the pain, but did not see the Budget as spreading the burden in anything like a fair or equal way.
……………………….
The incident of Hockey dancing to the song “The Best Day of My Life” just before unveiling his Budget of pain was also an own goal.
When I asked him about it on television — suggesting that those hit by the Budget were unlikely to see it as the best day of their lives — he was furious, accusing me of taking advantage of a private family moment and purveying gossip.
In fact, a Brisbane journalist and a News Corp photographer were present at Hockey’s invitation, so the moment was hardly private. As for gossip …
A story based on information from the photographer was quickly posted on the News Corp company’s website saying: “Before Mr Hockey delivered his first Budget he shared a candid moment with his wife Melissa, dancing to the song, optimistically perhaps, This Will Be The Best Day Of My Life.”
The journalist — Madonna King, who is writing a book on Hockey — later admitted in a newspaper article: “I’m partly to blame for the Treasurer dancing”. She had reminded him that “every Treasurer has had a song” and asked what his was.
King reported that, having selected the song at the suggestion of a family member, Hockey “said upfront that it would send the wrong message”. He was right.]
K17 #76
The PBO should be the ALPs best friend at the next election.
It’s clear for all to see NOW why the Conservatives avoided the PBO like the plague in 2013 and now have a massive ‘TRUST’ black hole.
The ALP will have the opportunity to lay out a fully costed pathway to a sustainable long term financial future.
LL
Funny in my own control group, they all lay the blame squarely at the feet of Abboty
Daniel Andrews @DanielAndrewsMP 12m
Full text of Daniel Andrews’ speech announcing Family Violence Royal Commission: http://www.danielandrews.com.au/media/news/family-violence-royal-commission/ … #vicalpconf #thisislabor #springst
LL
Having said that. I believe Hockey’s dreams of becoming PM one day are stuffed
I assume the policy flow in Canberra is as follows:
Lobbyists – Loughnane – Credlin – Abbott/Hockey (the empty vessels).
Plus, of course, as a tribal leader, Tony has to let a few of the nuttier members of the tribe (e.g. Abetz, Andrews) have some fun torturing captives.
Dave
I always keep the faith but never underestimate the opponent.
Dave
I always keep the faith but never underestimate the opponent.
Dee
[Some PBer’s seemed to think the outrage was ‘real’.]
I was really sus when Newman stated he was hopping mad.
Rex – but I’m backing off doing a “me too” on GST. Why give abbott any legitimacy on anything. Call it a tax on the poor, which it is.
The only denial in that article by Gordon is that the MSM are denying the fact they bought the Libs rhetoric about there being an economic crisis and that the debt was a problem.
As a consequence, Labor is expected to respond to a media manufactured crisis that doesn’t really exist.
The early qualitative research cited by Laurie Oakes today shows the voters have seen through the bulldust. It will take a little time for hacks like Gordon to move on.
mh
Probably the only Lib Premier who may have got pissed off is Napthine.
Oops
Gotten
GG
Agree re Gordon
psyclaw@19
This is truly fascinating.
She has made a number of such statements recently and I am wondering what lies behind it? Some sort of epiphany perhaps?
Will she be applying to join the ALP?
Yes, there are former Libs who have joined the ALP but I can’t recall any former Lib MPs. Perhaps history will be made. 😀
victoria
Because his head is first on the chopping block?
mh
Yep, and they are not travelling too well in the polls
Interesting idea on renewable energy …
http://buff.ly/1gbtYfx
vic,
It suits both Napthine and Baird to be running against Canberra as they both have elections in the not too distant future.
Napthine will be desperate to move the focus from his Government’s poor performance. I’m assuming Baird is also desperate to have a unicorn appear to distract the public focus on the Corruption Inquiry.
Whenever the next election is held, either as a DD or in 2016, I think the biggest scare campaign the Labor party could run is the threat of an increase in the GST. It would be rat poison to the Liberals because Abbott’s denials will no longer be believed after this budget fiasco. He has absolutely no credibility left.
Can you imagine the average Australian giving their assent to widening the GST to include everything it doesn’t presently cover, and/or lifting the rate to 15% or more? I can’t. With all the criticism of the Abbott government that states are bound to come out with now, following the dumping of all education and health expenditure in their laps, if Labor plays its cards right, it should just about be able to turn the next election into a referendum on the GST – one that the liberals couldn’t possibly win.
GG
Not if they all present a case for a rise in the GST
Psyclaw
[It is the responsibility of government to build infrastructure. Fullstop. the funding comes from general revenue, and road building has to compete with all other budget items. How it is prioritised in the spend is the choice of the government.]
That is only half correct. There are two reasons why infrastructure funding has become problematic – one is the lack of government funding, the other is the lack of developer funding. The latter is linked to the corrupting of the development approval process in most state governments. The former problem is largely because urban roads were traditionally a state responsibility, that has been shirked by states as they have gotten short of cash due to health costs.
Much of the required urban road backlog is due to traffic growth that can be linked to residential subdivision. Folowing various legal precedents it used to be (1980s/90s) normal practice to require developers to contribute towards road costs on a direct or per lot basis so that they could be built when needed. However following largely successful lobbying by UDIA, property council and well connected individuals (think Brian Burke and co) this has stopped. It has cost billions, which is the shortfall we now face. There has been no corresponding drop in housing prices, so it has become a huge windfall profit to land developers, many of whom are among Australia’s richest individuals.
In this respect, both Labor and Liberal state governments have been corrupt, from Springfield to the Mornington Peninsula, from Yanchep to the Hunter Valley.
Have a good day all. Details aside, yes it is still an awful budget, produced by two men who should not have been elected.
Darn
The Libs narrative is that labor left a debt and defiict mess. They wish to lay the blame squarely at Labor’s feet.
The gold plated PPL is an albatross round Abbott’s neck. He seems to think that every other promise can be broken cos of Labor, but not his PPL