GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.
Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.
A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.
Note this is only the teaser article. Full article at midnight.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-support-still-strong-in-latest-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226863729870#
[Abbott support still strong in latest Newspoll
Dennis Shanahan, Political editor
The Australian March 24, 2014 10:45PM
VOTER satisfaction with Bill Shorten has lifted slightly but the dramatic decision of assistant treasurer Arthur Sinodinos to step aside in relation to a NSW corruption hearing appears not to have hit the Abbott government in the past two weeks.]
Hooray
Shanahan busy polishing the Abbott
That sow will be having hearing problems in the future …
confessions
Being a footy tragic, I have been watching the footy shows tonight.
Was qanda any good?
@marcialangton: The new definition of freedom from Attorney General George Brandis: Australians have a right to be bigots: http://t.co/YoFLDdnbFH
I love the way the Oz reports bad newspolls – ‘abbott support still strong’ and *cough* theLNPwouldloseanelectionheldnow48:52.
under howard I recall a banner headline ‘HOWARD UP BY 3%’ – the result was similar to this – his net dissatisfaction was down by 3% but according to the poll he was facing a 45:55 wipeout.
I wonder if they chuckle as they do it, or are so fanatical they don’t notice they are doing it.
My aggregate now 51.1 to Labor. Was 50-50 following weekend reset pre Newspoll and Morgan but last week’s score was 50.4 to Labor.
So with the Morgan and the NP, the probable numbers are 53/47.
“@sspencer_63: Hysterical! Rt @profsarahj: With ALP leading LNP 52 to 48 in Newspoll, this is Dennis Shanahan’s interpretation: http://t.co/l9RWuFRFii”
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 21s
Not enough drugs in world to read Shanahan
If Morgan’s close to the money on the 2PP in WA and the Palmer PV, then the figures look good to produce a result of 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 PUP, 1 Green.
The key will be whether Palmer can pass the Liberal surplus after two quotas – with the Liberal vote deflated so and Palmer’s vote that high, I don’t think he’ll have a problem doing so.
Maybe those DVDs Palmer sent to just about every household in WA did the trick?
Re #9, the Morgan is 53.5 by last-election preferences which needs to be adjusted downwards because of Morgan skew. So even the Morgan and Newspoll averaged should come out to more like 52. But that’s against the backdrop of much closer results from others.
victoria:
Eddie was staunch in his defence of Demetriou – not surprising given he’s an AFL club president. But he was also pretty scathing of the Hirds, in particular Mrs Hird.
I don’t think old polls carry much weight these days – you can only really go on a snapshot of what has happened most recently in polling. These things change so quickly. I imagine Essential with have a more conservative Labor lead, if any at all.
confessions
Not surprised that eddie made those comments. I will try and catch up with qanda on iview
Latest Newspoll. Has any new incoming government had a worse start in the polls? No honeymoon, no new legislation, one of its star performers in the poo before ICAC, the AG defending the rights of bigots and todays news on a backflip on trailing commissions for the financial advisors.
Has Abbott fallen out with Brandis, with the latter defending the rights of bigots in Parliament and the former saying there’s no place in Oz for bigotry in QT. Go figure.
& with that, that’s me for tonight, will leave you a quote from Star Trek Enterprise Episode, “Stigma”, on bigotry:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0572239/quotes
“Captain Jonathan Archer: “You Humans are too… volatile, too irrational, too narrow-minded.” That’s what I heard for years – from every Vulcan I met. But we don’t hold a candle to you when it comes to narrow-minded. We got rid of bigotry nearly a century ago. We’re not afraid of diversity. We don’t persecute it, we embrace it. If you call yourselves enlightened, you have to accept people who are different than you are. “
[My aggregate now 51.1 to Labor. Was 50-50 following weekend reset pre Newspoll and Morgan but last week’s score was 50.4 to Labor.]
how’s the WA greens vote looking? are we one track for a 3 LNP:2 ALP:1 green senate result – or dare we dream of the libs not getting 3?
[Latest Newspoll. Has any new incoming government had a worse start in the polls? No honeymoon, no new legislation, one of its star performers in the poo before ICAC, the AG defending the rights of bigots and todays news on a backflip on trailing commissions for the financial advisors.]
Let’s just wait and see what happens after the budget. That’s when we will find out what the government really wants to do.
For the last 6 months all they have done is tried to re-prosecute the election. They don’t have anything to say other than repealing the carbon and mining taxes. But after the budget they will finally have to tell us what they really want to do and I suspect most people won’t like it.
[“Has any new incoming government had a worse start in the polls?”]
Well there was this one:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/09/05/newspoll-59-41-to-coalition/
[walkthedogma @walkthedogma 2m
I voted today,nobody there. AEC girls were giggling over how dirty it sounded to say ‘one above or 77 below ‘ #wavotes]
Ace result. General Erection Now!
Meanwhile, Pyney whines about the SA LNP’s failure to win enough seats, which is apparently now an ‘illegitimate’ reason to be denied government: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/24/christopher-pynes-fury-at-illegitimate-sa-government-smacks-of-sore-loser?CMP=soc_567
Awww, diddums. Seems to happen to you guys a lot. Perhaps you could ponder: why do otherwise conservative rural indies HATE you so much? 🙁
I’m not sure how an aggregate can include polls that were done a few weeks ago. Surely the best snapshot would be the latest polls – NP, Morgan and Essential (when it come out tomorrow). Nielsen, Galaxy, etc. are ancient history now.
Rossmore @ 18: While we are on the subject of Senator Brandeis, let’s not forget the s*** sandwich he had to devour recently in the aftermath of the ICJ ruling on the Timor case. He’s not the first two-bit provincial lawyer and political SC/QC to be AG – remember Billy Snedden – but he’s probably the first one in a long time who was deluded enough to think himself to be a real lawyer.
Has Abbott fallen out with Brandis, with the latter defending the rights of bigots in Parliament and the former saying there’s no place in Oz for bigotry in QT. Go figure.
Nothing unusual. Just the Coalition collectively speaking out of both sides of its mouth.
@ sustainable future 20
If Palmer is polling 10.5% in WA, but Labor is leading 52-48 on 2PP, it clearly means that much of Palmer’s vote is coming off of the Libs – their PV can’t be higher than about 38 or 39(!) off of that.
That’s not enough to get a third Senate seat – not with Palmer polling more than enough to clear the surplus and gain it to get him over the line.
With WA figures from Morgan be cautious due to Margin of error.
It could be worse or better for LNP than figures show.
Wow now I am posting the obvious, Time for sleep.
Goodnight
I’d say I’ve seen enough polls to declare that there’s been a real shift in underlying voter behavior. I wouldn’t go so far as to say “if there were an election now, Labor would win” but it is looking better for Labor.
Put it this way, if we the people could demand a fresh election I’d say go for it. If for no other reason than to stop Abbott/Turnbull/Murdoch wrecking the NBN.
Now we’ll have to wait and see how things fare post budget. Will it be a horror budget? Will it include lots of spin and sweeteners. Will News Limited polish the turd. No strike that, of course they will. But will the electorate continue to swallow it.. have to wait till June.
[But after the budget they will finally have to tell us what they really want to do and I suspect most people won’t like it.]
Yep: it you think these polls look bad, just wait.
Plus Newman has *completely* lost his %$#*& marbles in QLD. These proposed Dept Health contracts seek to require state doctors consider the cheapest medical options over the most appropriate.
Newman might as well print a t-shirt which says “please bury me alive electorally”
Re Morgan, I find it hard to believe the Libs are behind in WA. The other states, apart from Qld, are probably about right.
Armea.. I wonder.. could we get a 2-1-2-1 result in the WA Senate.
2 Lib, 1 Palmer, 2 Labor, 1 Green.
That would be fun!
[If Palmer is polling 10.5% in WA, but Labor is leading 52-48 on 2PP]
WTF, wheres this WA poll?
Oh, its Morgan.
Ehh.
@ cud chewer 34
Entirely possible on those numbers.
@ lefty e 35
Latest Morgan.
34
I read somewhere that there is a chance of 2 ALP, 2 Lib, 1 Green, 1 HEMP (HEMP being in a good position for the micro party snowball). That sounds like the least friendly possible outcome for the government.
Frodo Baggins 22 … cute, but a false comparison.
That was a Government that had been in power for 15 months, in its second term , having messily deposed of its previous leader.
The LNP is a new Gov. The better comparison is with the new Rudd Gov in its first year of gov in 2008 Like this one:
Nielsen (May 15-17, 2008): Coalition – 43%, ALP – 57%
1 HEMP sounds like a good result to me.
Could signal the GRNs entering the mainstream.
cud chewer
would this make palmer kingmaker, our would sen X have that role. i think abbott would need all the pup, far right loons and sen X if we have a labor 2 and green 1 in wa. is that right? if so, it may save his government – if the far right loons gave abbott his head he’d go too far too fast an lose massively in 2016. if he had sen x as gate keeper he’ll be kept to the centre and not allowed to get the worst of his IPA masters’ agenda through.
“Abbott support still strong in latest Newspoll”
Strange headline in the OO.
There is no mention of Abbott’s numbers in the article.
The COALition is further behind than in the previous poll.
The LOTO’s numbers have improved.
Strange headline, even presuming an update at midnight gives Abbott’s numbers and they are better its still a headline entirely unjustified by the information in the article.
[Nielsen (May 15-17, 2008): Coalition – 43%, ALP – 57%]
Well this result is obviously a honeymoon on crack, and unrepresenative. But no-one ought underestimate how shit the Abbott govt is travelling.
I actually think its fair to say they have a hill to climb to get back in in 2016: that hill is near unprecedented popular distrust. But as Howard noted – and its true – being in government means you cant be ruled out.
“Abbott support still strong in latest Newspoll”
Thank you Fox News.
What I am led to believe is that if the result in WA is 3 Lib, 2 Lab, 1 Grn then Labor plus green would need to find 2 more cross bench Senators to block legislation (Senate merely requires a tie of 38-38 for that). Of course Palmer could potentially join Labor and Green to block legislation if he wanted to.
Now if its 2 Lib 1 PUP 2 Lab and 1 Grn in WA, that gives Palmer a larger bloc, but that doesn’t change the situation that Labor and Green would need 2 more Senators to block legislation. So it’d probably only matter if the PUP senators were split on some issue.
For me one of the critical issues is the NBN, and I’m hoping that the Libs can be frustrated in the Senate. They can certainly cause NBNco damage but the vast majority of possible deals that one could do with Telstra would require legislation of some sort. And a lot of it (like watering down the ACCC) might offend some of the cross bench Senators.
I’m hoping X shows some common sense and that someone else can be reasoned with.
Howard was saying that being in government made it possible to re-direct money to buy votes from specific groups, and in combination with policy. The problem Abbott has is that he is incapable of producing policy and it is not in his nature to be nice to people by buying votes.
lefty,
Its a shame Rudd didn’t use some of his honeymoon to home in on things like middle class welfare and restore budget revenue. As well as undoing some of Howards own particular brand of class warfare (rudd was too much of a “nice guy” in that respect)
[Howard was saying that being in government made it possible to re-direct money to buy votes from specific groups, and in combination with policy. The problem Abbott has is that he is incapable of producing policy and it is not in his nature to be nice to people by buying votes.]
Abbott understands that people can be bought or bullied. He hasn’t figured out yet that they can be won over by doing something constructive.
Today I saw the inevitable Abbott in yellow hat. Seems he’s going to be the people of Western Sydney’s friend.
So, apart from Westconnex, what is he actually going to support that isn’t public transport? Public transport being way too socialist a concept.
45
That is why I hope it goes 2 ALP, 2 Lib, 1 Green and 1 HEMP. HEMP do not sound Abbott friendly.