Seat of the week: Adelaide

Seat of the week returns after a few weeks on the back burner, with the focus remaining on South Australia.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

Comments Page 20 of 28
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  1. victoria@939

    dave

    I hear different. Howes taking a sabbatical before returning to enter pariiament for Labor in the HOR

    This is what he said, reported by SMH –

    [ He denied he was leaving the AWU for a career in politics. “And so, despite what you may hear, I am not leaving this job to pursue a seat in parliament,” he said. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/paul-howes-free-to-push-for-historic-split-between-labor-and-unions-20140324-35d3u.html#ixzz2wqF0cyBb

    I much prefer that he has been “Ludwigged”.

    Mind you if he ends up in HoR he will be a lying, but I wouldn’t mind if he goes the “full tory” by becoming one.

  5. re:the picture in the article

    https://theconversation.com/png-mateship-on-asylum-seekers-no-substitute-for-rigorous-policy-and-decent-conditions-24701

    Is it just me, or do others think abbott is getting that freaky plastic surgery/botox/hair dye look that you see more commonly in the US? I know it probably shouldn’t matter, but somehow it does – I see it a sign of an immature, vain, bull-shit artiste and superficial individual, who knows the real him is not very attractive.

  6. dave

    My understanding is that Howes will involve himself in other things for a while and when the time is appropriate, put his hat into the ring for a spot in the HOR.

    I report, you decide. 😀

  7. [Rees is setting up Keneally with his evidence at ICAC, IMHO]

    What do you mean?

    How do you know?

    So Rees is going to lie or frame Keneally, oh I see?

  8. ruawake@947

    dave

    The theory goes Howes was told to be a team player and to stop freelancing, he was reminded that it was the AWU that held the delegates to ALP conferences not Paul.

    When he tried to get support for the AWU to disaffiliate from the ACTU and ALP it was one mistake too many. Uncle Joe swatted him aside.

    Ru – I hope you are right, because the story will come out.

    About time he was given a size 12 up the clacker.

  9. A summary

    “@ShoebridgeMLC: Pell blames the lawyers, fails to recall, fails to accept responsibility. All drearily familiar from this man. #RoyalCommission”

  11. I find QandA is often spoiled by the presence of serving politicians who tend to engage in a running fight with their opponents to litle effect.

    The recent exceptions have been Plibisek,who is great,and Palmer who is a barrel of laughs…and not as foolish as the Oz would have us believe..and his hatred of Murdoch always come out.

  12. Ooh Sinodinos standing aside having its effect

    “@SabraLane: “I have decided to pause the process on the FOFA regulation for the time being to enable me to consult in good faith…”

    “@SabraLane: with all relevant stakeholders before pressing the go button on our changes.” — Mathias Cormann”

  13. GG

    Let me clarify just for you:

    [Oh good, I hope Howes is elected into the parliamentary Labor Party when the Monkey leaves so I can vote Liberal.]

    So anybody who shares a different view to yourself is a silly old duffer?

    Yeah well you believe some Jew rose from the dead so how good are you going 😆

  14. [Will eddie give anyone else a chance ..]

    victoria

    If Eddie even comes close to keeping O’Dwyer quiet tonight I’ll sing Hallelujah.

  16. victoria@956

    dave

    My understanding is that Howes will involve himself in other things for a while and when the time is appropriate, put his hat into the ring for a spot in the HOR.

    I report, you decide.

    Vic – either Ru or you are reporting the good oil.

    Cannot be both.

    Of course putting your hat in the ring when you no longer have union backing and have his baggage is easier said then done.

    If he has in fact been “Ludwigged” he won’t be in the HoR as a Laborite.

  20. Perhaps Cormann does have an independent brain.

    I would suspect he/the government would want to get the FOFA changes out from under the shadow of Sinodinos and the ICAC investigations into AWH by delaying it for a while.

    Whether they actually make any substantive changes to their proposed rollback of parts of FOFA remains to be seen.

  22. [Perhaps Cormann does have an independent brain.]

    Or the Banking lobby does, they do not want to be seen as influencing the regulations via Sinodinos (who was an NAB director). Give it time to cool off.

  24. guytaur

    [@SabraLane: “I have decided to pause the process on the FOFA regulation for the time being to enable me to consult in good faith…”

    “@SabraLane: with all relevant stakeholders before pressing the go button on our changes.” — Mathias Cormann”]

    He should try consulting with Hockey’s mother-in-law.

  31. Interested to see how the bludgers feel.

    I think there are several opp front benches just about take on Kero Head full bore.

    Albo, the former AG, or Burkey have obviously had a gutful. I think that Lab ought to plan what is going to have to happen eventually and I think it might be sooner rather than later.

    Even Shorten let fly today.

    How would / will they go about it.

  32. I thought ICAC went out of its way to make the point that Keneally (and O’Farrell) were in no way under suspicion of corrupt conduct with respect to the current investigations, and Watson made a point of expressing relief that Keneally and her office expressly stopped the AWH PPP from getting up.

    That tends to indicate they don’t expect there to be any particularly hot water for Keneally specifically, and any positioning that Rees may do would seem to be pointless except perhaps for political consumption should Keneally attempt to reenter NSW or Federal politics.

    But who knows.

  34. ABC News Online reports that AG Sen Brandis believes that ‘people have the right to be bigots’

    Perhaps yes… free speech and all.

    But people have the right to feel safe and free of bigotry, racism, etc. IMHO.

  35. jackol

    Rees could just be calling it how he sees it. For reasons you say there would be no point to risking danger of perjury or misleading the commission while under oath.

  36. Centre, I can’t recall the exact words but kero head mentioned something about the comment reflecting on the chair and also that he would be turfed under 94A.

    It was during a rather long and heated exchange involving Brommie, the poodle, Burke, (and Albo I think) and then Shorten made the comment.

  39. “@ShoebridgeMLC: Pell just lead down the path by the #RoyalCommission to agree that a ‘moral response’ is exactly the same as full common law liability”

  40. Guytaur @ 985

    That’s a very realistic and practical post.

    The potential, if only you could keep away from the Greens 😈

  41. Centre

    He said to Kero…

    [ “you are casting this house into disrepute when you allow [Pyne] to carry on [like that]”.]

  42. Guytaur –

    Rees could just be calling it how he sees it

    For sure. I was just digesting shellbell’s comment that “Rees is setting up Keneally with his evidence at ICAC, IMHO”, and wondering how that would fit into the broader scheme of things.

    As far as it goes I always liked Rees and was very suspicious of Keneally when she took over in the circumstances at the time, but she kind of won me over. Keneally so far hasn’t had any mud stick as far as I’m aware, and seems to have actually been as independent of the Obeid influence as it probably was possible to be at the time. I like her manner, she is a lot more up front and seemingly candid than many politicians.

    Anyway, I only mention this because I actually have time for both Rees and Keneally, although I can well understand Rees may have a quite justifiable grudge against KK.

  44. [Can a motion of no confidence be raised against a speaker just like any MP/Minister]

    Bourke tried to move a dissent motion over the Speakers ruling, she ruled he was not allowed because she had not made a ruling, this was when she ruled that someone should have been sitting down to be on their feet.

    She really is a disgrace. Leo McLeay was better and thats saying something.

  47. “@political_alert: Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen and Shadow Financial Services Minister Bernie Ripoll will hold a press conference at 4.15pm #auspol”

  48. Centre – re the comments mentioned by Poroti.

    Bill Shortens comments to Kero Head were said in an angry aggressive tone towards her and he meant every word of it.

    I can’t see Labor keeping the lid on it much longer. It is getting past the point of no return.

  49. Royal Commission

    Suspect Justice Peter McClellan will recommend institutions ( Church et al ) all be treated alike & remove impediments to prosecution, will also flow on to removal of Tax free status

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