Sunday, March 23
I’ve finally found time to take a close look at the preferences situation and its likely effect on the result, on which Truth Seeker’s Monte Carlo simulations offer considerable insight. Here goes:
The result at last year’s election bucked the normal pattern in producing a result of four right, two left, rather than three-all. Within the right and left seat groupings were two separate battles, the results of which were never resolved. Clearly the Liberals won three seats on the right, the third elected candidate being Linda Reynolds, but the last one had the potential to go to either the Palmer United Party or the Sports Party. On the left, it was not clear whether both seats were won by Labor, or if Scott Ludlam held his seat for the Greens at the expense of Labor’s Louise Pratt. The major determinant of the left’s weak showing was a low vote for both Labor, down 3.11% on an already poor result in 2010 to 26.59%, and the Greens, down 4.47% on a strong 2010 result to 9.49%. Even when supplemented by the vote for smaller parties commonly reckoned to be part of the left, mainly the Sex Party (1.49%), Help End Marijuana Prohibition (1.06%), Wikileaks (0.75%), Animal Justice (0.74%), the total left vote was only 40.3%, or 40.6% if the Democrats are deemed to count. Either sum is a fair distance short of the 42.86% required for a third quota.
However, the situation was more complicated than usual due to both the high micro-party vote, and the extent to which micro-parties of left and right directed preferences to each other rather than larger parties of closer ideological proximity, a phenomenon largely attributed to the deal-making prowess of Glenn Druery. This was generally to the detriment of the left, particularly on the scenario in which preference-harvesting success story the Sports Party emerged triumphant at the final count. Among the parties contributing to the Sports Party snowball were the Sex Party, HEMP, Wikileaks and Animal Justice, whose preferences were accordingly denied to the Greens and Labor. Between the four of them, votes for “left” parties which ended up on the “right” accounted for about 4% of the total.
This time around, it appears the Sex Party, Wikileaks and Animal Justice have been stung by the controversies that attended their earlier pragmatic and/or perverse preference judgements, as each is running more conventionally left-wing tickets. Had they done so in September, the Sports Party would have been unable to make it to a quota on any scenario. Only HEMP (1.06%) looks to be on board the Glenn Druery train, with the main left parties buried deep down its ticket. With the potential for leakage thus reduced, it will only take a swing from right to left of 3.5% to convert last year’s four right, two left result into three-all.
On the right side of the ledger, it should be noted that the potential existed for the preference axe to have swung the other way last September, given the high placing granted to the Greens by Palmer United. Had the aforementioned left-wing minor parties directed preferences to the Greens, the scenario that saw the Sports Party elected would instead have delivered seats to both Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam, with both Sports and Palmer excluded and the 5.0% Palmer vote shifting from right to left in the shape of a preference transfer to Ludlam. That would no doubt have caused considerable umbrage towards Palmer United in conservative circles. However, in keeping with the generally more straightforward picture this time around, the Palmer United ticket is generally anti-left, putting right-of-centre minor parties ahead of the Coalition, with Labor and then the Greens further down amidst mostly left-of-centre concerns.
Should a three-all result transpire, it seems very likely the result will be three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, as it was in 2004, 2007 and 2010, barring a surprisingly large transfer of votes from Liberal to Palmer United. Otherwise, the fourth right seat will again be a tussle between Palmer United and an indeterminate preference-harvester. There are a number of reasons to favour the former, namely the extended Palmer publicity drive, the likelihood that lower turnout will harm the micro-party vote, and the aforementioned absence of the Sex Party and Wikileaks from preference harvesting arrangements. Conversely, the Sports and Motoring Enthusiasts parties may get a boost from the Russell Woolf/Verity James ticket, consisting of erstwhile ABC personalities running to plead the cause for the public broadcaster. As Paul Murray complained in Saturday’s West Australian, their ticket places Louise Pratt considerably higher than Linda Reynolds, and thus promises to deliver a free kick of indeterminate size to Labor. However, it also places the Sports Party and the Motoring Enthusiasts ahead of Labor, thus increasing the apparently diminished chances of one of those parties pulling off another boilover.
On the left, Labor has done the better out of the preference realignment in that the Sex Party has favoured it over the Greens, which amounted to twice as many votes last year as were cast for the Greens-preferencing Wikileaks. Ludlam would thus have to hope that Labor state secretary Simon Mead speaks truly when he argues lower turnout will hurt Labor, as any improvement in their vote would give him a higher hurdle to clear.
Friday, March 21
Antony Green’s preference calculator is open for business. Occasional pseph blogger Truth Seeker, who became a household name (in certain types of household at least) in tracking the Senate count in the weeks following the federal election, has also swung back into action, finding the most likely result to be three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens, based on a series of assumptions that may or may not prove accurate.
Tuesday, March 18
Group voting tickets have been published by the AEC site. Below are simplified versions thereof, which ignore placement of all candidates who are either certain to be elected, or certain not to be. In the former camp are the two two Liberal candidates and the top Labor candidate. In the latter are all candidates on non-major party tickets other than the lead candidate, and all below number three on the Liberal ticket and number two on the Labor ticket. For example, the DLP superficially appears to have Labor in the middle somewhere, but an exception has been made for Louise Pratt who is given last place, which means that DLP preferences will end up with anyone other than Labor at the decisive point in the count.
The Wikileaks Party: Greens; HEMP; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Labor; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; Sports; Sustainable Population; Democrats; DLP; Secular; Katter’s Australian; Republican; PUP; Nationals; Mutual; Liberal Democrats; Woolf/James; Liberal; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Family First; Freedom and Prosperity; Motoring Enthusiast; Smokers Rights; Fishing & Lifestyle; Australian Christians; Van Lieshout; Outdoor Recreation; Shooters & Fishers; Rise Up Australia.
The Nationals: Liberal; DLP; Fishing & Lifestyle; Australian Christians; Family First; Liberal Democrats; Building Australia; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Outdoor Recreation; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian; Republican; Mutual; Democrats; Woolf/James; PUP; Secular; Wikileaks; Labor; Greens; Sustainable Population; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Pirate; Voluntary Euthanasia; Smokers Rights; Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Socialist Alliance; HEMP; Van Lieshout.
Russell Woolf/Verity James: Voluntary Euthanasia; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Labor; Greens; HEMP; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Mutual; Sustainable Population; PUP; Wikileaks; Nationals; Democrats; Pirate; Katter’s Australian; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Secular; Socialist Alliance; Van Lieshout; Building Australia; Liberal; Republican; Smokers Rights; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Outdoor Recreation; Freedom and Prosperity; Liberal Democrats; Australian Voice; Family First.
Australian Democrats: Sustainable Population; Animal Justice; HEMP; Wikileaks; Mutual; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Secular; Pirate; Socialist Alliance; Woolf/James; Freedom and Prosperity; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Van Lieshout; Greens; Shooters & Fishers; Fishing & Lifestyle; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; half Labor, Nationals, Liberal; half Nationals, Liberal, Labor; Family First; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Republican; Smokers Rights; Outdoor Recreation; Liberal Democrats.
Pirate Party: Greens; Secular; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Sports; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; HEMP; Animal Justice; Sustainable Population; Mutual; Building Australia; Socialist Alliance; Australian Voice; Woolf/James; Labor; Republican; DLP; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Nationals; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Liberal; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Van Lieshout.
Australian Labor Party: Secular; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Woolf/James; Voluntary Euthanasia; HEMP; Greens; Democrats; Pirate; Wikileaks; Socialist Alliance; Liberal Democrats; PUP; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Family First; Freedom and Prosperity; Mutual; Sustainable Population; Motoring Enthusiast; Sports; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Fishing & Lifestyle; Republican; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Van Lieshout; Nationals; Liberal; Rise Up Australia.
Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Shooters & Fishers; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Sports; PUP; HEMP; Fishing & Lifestyle; Mutual; Building Australia; Outdoor Recreation; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Pirate; Democrats; Woolf/James; Van Lieshout; Republican; Sex Party; Family First; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Katter’s Australian; Animal Justice; Liberal Democrats; Smokers Rights; Australian Christians; Nationals; half Liberal, half Labor; Greens; Secular; Socialist Alliance.
Freedom and Prosperity Party: Australian Voice; Mutual; Building Australia; Sports; Rise Up Australia; Katter’s Australian; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Family First; Fishing & Lifestyle; Motoring Enthusiast; Australian Christians; Democrats; HEMP; Liberal Democrats; Republican; PUP; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Woolf/James; Van Lieshout; Pirate; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Sustainable Population; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Socialist Alliance; Secular; Greens.
Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Ticket 1): Woolf/James; HEMP; Secular; Sex Party; Pirate; Greens; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Sports; Sustainable Population; Democrats; Wikileaks; Socialist Alliance; PUP; Motoring Enthusiast; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Mutual; Nationals; Republican; Liberal; Smokers Rights; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Katter’s Australian; Animal Justice; Outdoor Recreation; Van Lieshout.
Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Ticket 2): Woolf/James; HEMP; Secular; Sex Party; Pirate; Labor; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Sports; Sustainable Population; Democrats; Wikileaks; Motoring Enthusiast; Building Australia; Outdoor Recreation; Socialist Alliance; Smokers Rights; Republican; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Mutual; PUP; Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Nationals; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Animal Justice; Liberal; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Australian Christians; Van Lieshout.
Liberal Democrats: Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Democrats; Wikileaks; Mutual; Republican; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Woolf/James; HEMP; Building Australia; Sports; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Pirate; Secular; Sex Party; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Nationals; Labor; PUP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Greens; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Van Lieshout.
Australian Voice Party: Freedom and Prosperity; Sustainable Population; Building Australia; Motoring Enthusiast; Shooters & Fishers; Fishing & Lifestyle; PUP; Australian Christians; HEMP; Sports; Mutual; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Wikileaks; Democrats; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Woolf/James; Sex Party; Nationals; Family First; Republican; Secular; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; Voluntary Euthanasia; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Liberal Democrats; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Van Lieshout.
Building Australia Party: Australian Voice; Mutual; Sustainable Population; Freedom and Prosperity; Sports; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Fishing & Lifestyle; Motoring Enthusiast; HEMP; DLP; Family First; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; PUP; Liberal Democrats; Republican; Smokers Rights; Nationals; Woolf/James; Wikileaks; Liberal; Sex Party; Labor; Pirate; Secular; Socialist Alliance; Outdoor Recreation; Voluntary Euthanasia; Greens; Van Lieshout.
Mutual Party: Van Lieshout; Sustainable Population; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Democrats; Katter’s Australian; Sports; Rise Up Australia; Republican; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; HEMP; Woolf/James; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Fishing & Lifestyle; PUP; Motoring Enthusiast; Smokers Rights; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Family First; Outdoor Recreation; Animal Justice; Secular; Pirate; Liberal; Nationals; Socialist Alliance; Labor; Greens.
Family First Party: PUP; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; Fishing & Lifestyle; Building Australia; Sports; Freedom and Prosperity; Liberal Democrats; Nationals; Liberal; Motoring Enthusiast; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian; Outdoor Recreation; Van Lieshout; Mutual; Animal Justice; Australian Voice; Democrats; Woolf/James; Sustainable Population; Republican; Smokers Rights; Greens; Labor; Voluntary Euthanasia; Pirate; Wikileaks; HEMP; Secular; Socialist Alliance; Sex Party.
Sustainable Population Party: Mutual; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Motoring Enthusiast; Democrats; Sports; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; HEMP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Woolf/James; Nationals; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Fishing & Lifestyle; one-third Greens, Labor, Liberal; one-third Labor, Greens, Liberal; one-third Liberal, Greens, Labor; Republican; Secular; PUP; Pirate; Family First; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian; Freedom and Prosperity; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Rise Up Australia; Socialist Alliance; Smokers Rights; Outdoor Recreation; Van Lieshout.
Palmer United Party: Sports; Family First; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; HEMP; Democrats; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Katter’s Australian; Freedom and Prosperity; Mutual; Nationals; Liberal; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Labor; Pirate; Woolf/James; Outdoor Recreation; Secular; Van Lieshout; DLP; Animal Justice; Greens; Sustainable Population; Republican; Wikileaks; Smokers Rights; Socialist Alliance; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia.
Australian Sports Party: Freedom and Prosperity; Sustainable Population; Australian Voice; Fishing & Lifestyle; Mutual; Motoring Enthusiast; Building Australia; Voluntary Euthanasia; Republican; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Democrats; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; PUP; Secular; Liberal; HEMP; Katter’s Australian; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; Animal Justice; Greens; Labor; Nationals; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Woolf/James; Van Lieshout.
Liberal: Nationals; Australian Christians; DLP; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Woolf/James; Fishing & Lifestyle; Democrats; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Mutual; Sustainable Population; Sports; Outdoor Recreation; Motoring Enthusiast; Republican; Smokers Rights; Voluntary Euthanasia; Secular; Pirate; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Labor; Wikileaks; HEMP; Socialist Alliance; Rise Up Australia; Greens; Van Lieshout.
Shooters and Fishers: Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Sports; Building Australia; Mutual; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Democrats; HEMP; Sustainable Population; Republican; Katter’s Australian; Rise Up Australia; PUP; Family First; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Liberal Democrats; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Australian Christians; DLP; Sex Party; Woolf/James; Voluntary Euthanasia; Secular; Pirate; Wikileaks; Socialist Alliance; Van Lieshout; Animal Justice; Greens.
Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Wikileaks; Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Katter’s Australian; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Mutual; Freedom and Prosperity; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Building Australia; Shooters & Fishers; Woolf/James; Sex Party; Republican; Secular; Pirate; Labor; PUP; Liberal Democrats; Socialist Alliance; Greens; Smokers Rights; Outdoor Recreation; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Nationals; Family First; Van Lieshout; Australian Christians; Liberal.
Republican Party of Australia: Liberal Democrats; Sustainable Population; Secular; Sex Party; Freedom and Prosperity; HEMP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Outdoor Recreation; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Animal Justice; Mutual; Smokers Rights; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Fishing & Lifestyle; Liberal; Nationals; Greens; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Labor; Katter’s Australian; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; Rise Up Australia; Wikileaks; Woolf/James; Australian Christians; Family First; DLP; PUP; Van Lieshout.
Smokers Rights: Liberal Democrats; Outdoor Recreation; Van Lieshout; Democrats; Wikileaks; Mutual; Republican; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Woolf/James; HEMP; Building Australia; Sports; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Pirate; Secular; Sex Party; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Nationals; Labor; PUP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Greens; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance.
Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Freedom and Prosperity; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Building Australia; Sustainable Population; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Australian Christians; Democrats; Mutual; Republican; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Liberal; Nationals; PUP; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Katter’s Australian; HEMP; Labor; Greens; Secular; Australian Voice; Pirate; Woolf/James; Van Lieshout; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia.
Australian Christians: DLP; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Liberal; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Nationals; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian; Mutual; Building Australia; Sports; PUP; Motoring Enthusiast; Van Lieshout; Republican; Woolf/James; Outdoor Recreation; Labor; Pirate; Animal Justice; Democrats; Smokers Rights; Wikileaks; Secular; Liberal Democrats; Socialist Alliance; HEMP; Sustainable Population; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party.
Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Pirate; Republican; Greens; Liberal Democrats; HEMP; Animal Justice; Labor; Socialist Alliance; Van Lieshout; Sustainable Population; Nationals; Liberal; Building Australia; PUP; Mutual; Outdoor Recreation; Katter’s Australian; Sports; Fishing & Lifestyle; Australian Voice; Motoring Enthusiast; Smokers Rights; Shooters & Fishers; Freedom and Prosperity; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Family First; Woolf/James; Australian Christians.
Rise Up Australia Party: DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Mutual; Katter’s Australian; Freedom and Prosperity; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Fishing & Lifestyle; Sports; Liberal; Nationals; Outdoor Recreation; Shooters & Fishers; Motoring Enthusiast; PUP; Smokers Rights; Woolf/James; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Pirate; Republican; Sustainable Population; Van Lieshout; Secular; Socialist Alliance; HEMP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens; Labor.
The Greens (WA): Wikileaks; Pirate; Socialist Alliance; Woolf/James; Labor; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Secular; Democrats; HEMP; Sustainable Population; Sports; Republican; Australian Voice; Building Australia; DLP; Motoring Enthusiast; Family First; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Mutual; Freedom and Prosperity; Nationals; Liberal; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Smokers Rights; Fishing & Lifestyle; Outdoor Recreation; Liberal Democrats; Van Lieshout; Rise Up Australia.
DLP Democratic Labour Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; Family First; Katter’s Australian; Mutual; Van Lieshout; Fishing & Lifestyle; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Motoring Enthusiast; Sports; Woolf/James; Republican; Smokers Rights; Outdoor Recreation; Liberal Democrats; Nationals; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; PUP; Democrats; Secular; Sustainable Population; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; HEMP; Wikileaks; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens; Labor.
Katter’s Australian Party: Mutual; Australian Voice; DLP; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Australian Christians; HEMP; Shooters & Fishers; Building Australia; Outdoor Recreation; PUP; Rise Up Australia; Fishing & Lifestyle; Family First; Van Lieshout; Woolf/James; Nationals; half Labor, half Liberal; Republican; Pirate; Sustainable Population; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Secular; Freedom and Prosperity; Greens; Sex Party; Smokers Rights.
Animal Justice Party: Sustainable Population; Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia; HEMP; Pirate; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Mutual; Secular; half Labor, half Greens; PUP; Woolf/James; Katter’s Australian; Liberal; Republican; Socialist Alliance; Building Australia; Family First; Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Christians; DLP; Nationals; Liberal Democrats; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Rise Up Australia; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Van Lieshout; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers.
Sex Party: Secular; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Labor; HEMP; Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia; Pirate; Greens; Socialist Alliance; Sports; Mutual; Woolf/James; Freedom and Prosperity; Sustainable Population; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Shooters & Fishers; Fishing & Lifestyle; Motoring Enthusiast; PUP; Liberal; Nationals; Katter’s Australian; Smokers Rights; Republican; Van Lieshout; Liberal Democrats; Outdoor Recreation; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians.
Socialist Alliance: Greens; Pirate; Woolf/James; HEMP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Sustainable Population; Sports; Secular; Mutual; DLP; Nationals; Liberal; Republican; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Motoring Enthusiast; Australian Voice; Liberal Democrats; Building Australia; Smokers Rights; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Freedom and Prosperity; Van Lieshout; Outdoor Recreation.
Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens): Liberal Democrats; Smokers Rights; Van Lieshout; Democrats; Wikileaks; Mutual; Republican; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Woolf/James; HEMP; Building Australia; Sports; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Pirate; Secular; Sex Party; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Nationals; Labor; PUP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Greens.
Friday, March 14
The ballot paper draw was conducted today, and thanks to a
photo tweeted by the Greens from the AEC office, we can see that there are 33 groups listed – not as bad as the 44 from New South Wales last year, but bad enough that the font size on the ballot paper will have to be smaller this time. In order:
A: Wikileaks Party
B: Nationals
C: Unendorsed (Russell Woolf)
D: Democrats
E: Pirate Party
F: Labor
G: Motoring Enthusiast
H: Freedom and Prosperity
I: Voluntary Euthanasia
J: Liberal Democrats
K: Australian Voice
L: Building Australia
M: Mutual Party
N: Family First
O: Sustainable Population
P: Palmer United Party
Q: Australian Sports Party
R: Liberal
S: Shooters and Fishers
T: Help End Marijuana Prohibition
U: Republican Party of Australia
V: Smokers Rights
W: Australian Fishing and Lifestyle
X: Australian Christians
Y: Secular Party
Z: Rise Up Australia
AA: Greens
AB: Democratic Labor Party
AC: Katter’s Australian Party
AD: Animal Justice
AE: Sex Party
AF: Socialist Alliance
AG: Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop the Greens)
Monday, March 10
State election diversions have left me with regrettably little to say about the momentous re-run of Western Australia’s Senate election on April 5, but here finally is a post that will be regularly updated with noteworthy developments as the campaign proceeds. The electoral roll closed on Friday, and the remainder of the timetable runs as follows:
Thursday, March 13. Close of nominations.
Friday, March 14. Ballot paper draw.
Saturday, March 15. Lodgement of group voting tickets.
Tuesday, March 18. Early voting commences.
Saturday, April 5. Polling day.
So it is on Friday that we will find out exactly how many candidates the ballot paper will have to accommodate, and the precise scale of the related logistical issues facing the beleagured Australian Electoral Commission, and on Saturday that we will have a clear sense of the preference terrain. Most of the news generated by the campaign so far has accordingly related to the preference negotiations, which has provided a succession of bad news for the Greens. Labor has indicated it will break a practice of 10 years in not giving the Greens their second preference, essentially because their incentive to do so is weakened by the fact that the Greens do not have lower house preferences to barter with. Help End Marijuana Prohibition says it will drop the Greens down its order because, as Heath Aston of Fairfax reports, it has not delivered on its promise to call a drug summit in Canberra. The Sex Party says it will do the same because, as Andrew Tillett of The West Australian reports, it is “furious the Greens ran a national social media campaign in the lead-up to the September 7 poll, claiming that a vote for the Sex Party would help elect Pauline Hanson to a NSW Senate seat” (albeit that the claim was by no means unfair).
The implications of left-wing minor parties, which can be said to include the Democrats and Wikileaks as well as the aforementioned HEMP and Sex Party, crossing the ideological divide to participate in micro-party preference coalitions is considered by Charles Richardson in Crikey. If left and right parties directed preferences to each other, it is likely that both Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam would get up for a result of two Labor and one Greens, while a tussle would emerge on the right between the third Liberal and the leading right-wing preference harvester. However, if preferences from the aforementioned left-wing micro parties end up with said preference-harvester ahead of Labor and the Greens, the chance increases of the left again having only two seats, and Pratt and Ludlam again fighting it out for the second. If Labor puts the preference-harvester ahead of the Greens, the chances of a four right, two left result increases still further in the event that Pratt falls out of the count at an earlier stage than Ludlam.
Unsurprisingly the number 2 candidate for Labor was front and centre today and presumably the number 1 candidate is in a cupboard until after the election is concluded.
It’s got nothing to do with federal politics, but Lib #3 probably wishes Troy Buswell had waited a couple of months before having his “breakdown”. If he’s really going this time, a potential Vasse by-election (and having to find a new treasurer two months before the budget) would be an unwelcome distraction for the Libs.
[If Labor puts the preference-harvester ahead of the Greens, the chances of a four right, two left result increases still further]
Given the current political savvy of the ALP, lock it in.
It’s not Labor’s job to help elect Greens Senators.
Psephos, that is true enough. Which do you think would be the best result for Labor though – A Green senator or a PUP senator? I know of course you would prefer another Labor senator to either, but Labor’s preference distribution only comes into play when Labor’s last candidate is excluded.
IF 3 LIB 2 ALP 1 GR ELECTED THEN THIS MEANS THE FORCES OF DARKNESS MANAGE TO LOSE ONE SEAT AND THERE WILL BE 7 CROSS BENCERS …..THE ABBOTT GOVT WILL NEED 6/7 OF THESE TO PASS
LEGISLATION
the best result is this in my earlier post. but if the libs lost a seat to say pup then there would be 8 cross bench senators. with libs on 32 needing 7/8 to pass anything in the senate. that would be Alp 2 lib 2 1gr 1pup
[Psephos, that is true enough. Which do you think would be the best result for Labor though – A Green senator or a PUP senator? I know of course you would prefer another Labor senator to either, but Labor’s preference distribution only comes into play when Labor’s last candidate is excluded.]
I’m not sure I care one way or the other. Labor’s allocation of preferences should be determined solely by what is most likely to maximise Labor’s chances of winning two (preferably three) seats. If a preference deal with the Greens achieves that, fine. If some other arrangement achieves that, equally fine. Ludlam is no friend of Labor, and if loses his seat I will not mind greatly.
[Ludlam is no friend of Labor, and if loses his seat I will not mind greatly.]
It would give him a lot more time to make funny you tube videos to entertain us … that would be good
Alternatively channel 10 could have a Bolt Report and a Ludlam report with a half an hour cross over with them just going at each other … ratings winner …
I don’t like this attitude to preferences. It should be based on passing your votes to the party with your preferred ideologies. But if we don’t get 2 labor + 1 green then we won’t need a senate anymore. Labor should realise this.
[Labor should realise this.]
Labor listens to greens and greens supporters talk a lot of rubbish, most elections about how hard it is to distinguish labor from liberal as the greens go through a ridiculous and naive process of treating labor and liberal as the same.
Perhaps based on all the years of hearing this Labor should direct preferences straight to the liberals. *rolls eyes*
Go to senate.io and work out your own preferences.
8
Elections, under preferential voting systems (whether single member or PR), are not just about getting your own candidates up but also trying to get the other candidates elected to be useful to you in the term of government that they are elected for.
Having a Green Senator, rather than a PUP/micro party/Coalition Senator, increases the ability of the ALP to block Abbott Government Legislation it does not like and pass bills by reducing the number of non-Green crossbenchers required to block/pass such things.
Just came across this…
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/can-rooftop-solar-change-course-politics-australia-71387
“the Australian solar industry… has hired Geoff Denman, one of the key architects of the mining tax ad campaign… to affect the outcome of the WA Senate re-run in April.”
I thought there had been a WA Senate only opinion poll, perhaps in the West Australian, over the last month or so. This might tell us something a national poll, even broken down by state level, doesn’t. People vote diferently in by-elections. I’m struggling to find it though.
Tom the first and best posted Tuesday, March 11, 2014 at 11:41 am @ 14
It also means Labor have more likelihood of being able to set up Senate inquiries that are embarrassing to the Abbott Government. Life for Labor will be far better with three Senators of the left (Greens or other) elected rather than two. Further, if Labor were to win the next election I think they might well prefer having a Greens Senator rather than a PUP Senator elected.
On another note, I would rate Ludlam as one of the best Senators we have. I don’t agree with him on everything (e.g. Uranium mining). But on issues such as the NBN, data retention, Internet filtering and privacy he’s top spot on and not captured by the spooks like the major parties seem to be. I think we’re all better off with Ludlam in the Senate.
Regardless of what happens with preference allocations I’ll be voting below the line anyway.
[I thought there had been a WA Senate only opinion poll, perhaps in the West Australian, over the last month or so.]
I’d forgotten about that. Here it is:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/21683111/libs-aim-to-retain-all-senators/
IF the ALP care about the country and not their own petty power, they will preference the group that will limit Abbott’s power. Doesn’t matter who it is, they must put the good of the country before the welfare of the ALP or stupid high school tit for tat games with the Greens…
I believe this government is a real danger to our democracy and the ALP need to take a principalled stand against them..
**** sorry principled**** too late to spell properly tonight.
[Regardless of what happens with preference allocations I’ll be voting below the line anyway.]
Me too, doesn’t stop me laughing at the greens demanding principled self sacrificing action when it certainly isn’t something they ever do for labor.
Nose. Face. Spite.
I’ve lost track – is HEMP one of the front parties for the libertarians or is it legit? The Sex Party are definitely legit but they’re not really of the left.
HEMP is a real party which has been around for a while, founded in 1993. Stands for Help End Marijuana Prohibition; they are not a front, but basically a single issue party with no other policies.
Tweet from the number three ALP candidate last time, Peter Foster. Not re-nominating as he has a new child and can’t campaign strongly over the next couple of months
[Peter Foster – Media Statement Regarding WA Senate Election http://www.scribd.com/doc/212024927/Peter-Foster-Media-Statement-Regarding-WA-Senate-Election #auspol #wapol #wavotes]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/21976431/wikileaks-candidate-out-of-wa-senate-poll/
[Wikileaks candidate out of WA Senate poll
AAP
March 14, 2014, 12:13 pm
The Wikileaks Party candidate endorsed for WA’s re-run Senate election has pulled out of the race, citing “unforeseen personal reasons”.
Gerry Georgatos, who ran in the September poll, was announced as the lead candidate in the April 5 poll after party leader Julian Assange was not allowed to run because he had not spent enough time in WA in the past six years.
But one hour before the close of nominations on Thursday, Mr Georgatos withdrew from the race.
“There arrive events in people’s lives that require their commitment, and it is my duty to honour such a commitment,” he said.
“However, I will remain with the WikiLeaks Party, and I will campaign for them, for their imperatives, and I support these imperatives through the presence of the WA senate candidates.”
The new lead candidate is now Tibor Meszaros, the general manager and producer of community television station West TV.
Journalist Lucy Nicol is running in second place.]
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1s0vglr
[Matt Watt @karwalski
15th March 2014 from TwitLonger
Today, using the results of the member survey of preference options, Gery Georgatos and Omar Todd submitted the WikiLeaks Party Group Voting Ticket to the AEC. Below is the order in which preferences will flow when a voter choose to vote ‘1’ for WikiLeaks Party ‘Above the line’.
1. Tibor Meszaros – The Wikileaks Party
2. Lucy Nicol – The Wikileaks Party
3. Scott Ludlam – The Greens (WA)
4. James M Moylan – Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party
5. Fiona Patten – Sex Party
6. Katrina Love – Animal Justice Party
7. Alicia Sutton – Animal Justice Party
8. Philip Nitschke – Voluntary Euthanasia Party
9. Jim Duffield – Voluntary Euthanasia Party
10. Louise Pratt – Australian Labor Party
11. Alex Bainbridge – Socialist Alliance
12. Fletcher Boyd – Pirate Party
13. Wayne Dropulich – Australian Sports Party
14. Christine Cunningham – The Greens (WA)
15. Michelle Allen – Pirate Party
16. Chris Jenkins – Socialist Alliance
17. Ian James – The Greens (WA)
18. Jordon Steele-John – The Greens (WA)
19. Sarah Nielsen-Harvey – The Greens (WA)
20. Judith Cullity – The Greens (WA)
21. Peter Strachan – #Sustainable Population Party
22. William Bourke – #Sustainable Population Party
23. Tayla Moylan – Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party
24. Mark Coleman – Sex Party
25. Al Lackovic – Australian Sports Party
26. Chris Fernandez – Australian Democrats
27. William Thiel – Australian Democrats
28. Adrian Good – DLP Democratic Labour
29. Cathy Kiernan – DLP Democratic Labour
30. Simon Andrew Cuthbert – Secular Party of Australia
31. Andrew Thompson – Secular Party of Australia
32. Joe Bullock – Australian Labor Party
33. Shane Hill – Australian Labor Party
34. Klara Andric – Australian Labor Party
35. Phillip Bouwman – Katter’s Australian Party
36. Susan Hoddinott – Katter’s Australian Party
37. Marcus Anderson – Republican Party of Australia
38. Rohan Hollick – Republican Party of Australia
39. Desmond John Headland – Palmer United Party
40. Zhenya Wang – Palmer United Party
41. Chamonix Terblanche – Palmer United Party
42. Shane Van Styn – The Nationals
43. Colin Stephen De Grussa – The Nationals
44. Anthony James Fels – Mutual Party
45. Felly Chandra – Mutual Party
46. Jim Fryar – Liberal Democrats
47. Neil Hamilton – Liberal Democrats
48. Russell Woolf
49. Verity James
50. Kim Mubarak – Independent
51. David Johnston – Liberal
52. Michaelia Cash – Liberal
53. Linda Reynolds – Liberal
54. Slade Brockman – Liberal
55. Brian W Parkes – Australian Voice Party
56. Sean Butler – Australian Voice Party
57. Ken Bezant – Building Australia Party
58. Daniel Ross Smee – Building Australia Party
59. Linda Rose – Family First Party
60. Henry Heng – Family First Party
61. Bill Koutalianos – Freedom and Prosperity Party
62. Leon Ashby – Freedom and Prosperity Party
63. Richie Howlett – Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party
64. Rob Zandvliet – Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party
65. Max Katz-Barber – Smokers Rights
66. Daniel Jay Di Rado – Smokers Rights
67. Daniel Mccarthy – Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party
68. Suzzanne Wyatt – Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party
69. Ray Moran – Australian Christians
70. Justin Moseley – Australian Christians
71. Teresa Van Lieshout – Independent
72. David Fishlock – Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens)
73. Joaquim De Lima – Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens)
74. Murray Bow – Shooters and Fishers
75. John Parkes – Shooters and Fishers
76. Jane Elizabeth Foreman – Rise Up Australia Party
77. Joanne Bennett – Rise Up Australia Party]
Russell Woolf and Verity James come a long way done on that list, not sure what they did to upset wikileaks.
The Des Headland PUP ads are interesting.
http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/files/wa-2014-webgvt.pdf
[Western Australia Senate Group Voting Tickets
This booklet sets out copies of all group voting tickets which have been lodged in Western Australia for the 2014 Senate Election.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/22015300/senate-deals-leave-palmer-on-the-outer/
[Senate deals leave Palmer on the outer
Andrew Tillett Canberra The West Australian
March 17, 2014, 4:54 am
Clive Palmer’s chances of winning a WA Senate seat have been dealt a blow, with preference deals cut between political parties appearing to favour the status quo of three Liberals, two Labor and one Green.
But the Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party has emerged as a smoky to sneak in at the expense of the Greens’ Scott Ludlam after drawing support across the ideological spectrum.
Amid claims of doublecrossing among minor parties, the Australian Electoral Commission yesterday released the group voting tickets that show how parties will distribute their preferences as they are eliminated from the count.]
Re-posted from other thread:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/18/wa-senate-poll-palmers-preference-may-help-marijuana-party-into-joint?CMP=ema_792
A possible outcome for the sixth WA senate spot
[It is likely to be fought out between the third Liberal candidate and the Palmer United party, with the Liberals more favoured to win.
But should Hemp, which has done some canny preference dealings with both left- and right-wing micro-party candidates, poll ahead of the PUP after smaller party preferences have been allocated, then PUP’s preferences could put the lead Hemp candidate James Moylan into the Senate.]
The Greens ticket has Pratt,#2 for Labor at #15 with Bullock #1 ALP @ #30.
ALP has Ludlam at #17 on their ticket.
[It’s not Labor’s job to help elect Greens Senators.]
No, but it would help the ALP to have Senators to pass legislation when they are back in government.
[No, but it would help the ALP to have Senators to pass legislation when they are back in government.
]
Lol except they don’t do that!
Only in famous exceptions, WWP. Good luck with PUP! :p
Ludlum will need his own vote to rise, and the ALP to convert a bunch of those who voted LNP in 2013.
I wouldn’t rule either of those things out at this point, in fact Id say they’re more likely than not.
But then again we have Australia’s very own preference ponzi scheme / Senatorial randomiser effect as well, so who knows….
The NSW and Victorian Right need to ditch their North Korea mentality when dealing with the left.
Thanks to the ALP getting their act together, Pratt is incredibly unlikely to lose this time around, to the relief of most people on either side of the Labor/Green divide. Hill can’t win from number #3. So the churlish behaviour of some on the ALP right serves very little purpose except to try and continue their occasional tradition of electing MPs who make their lives difficult in parliament to spite the Greens.
I dare say that if the HEMP Party is elected on Labor preferences they are going to look very silly.
Re a senate only poll in WA.
I was robopolled on friday for this.
I don’t know who was conducting it but so far I haven’t seen any results published anywhere.
Mr Bowe? Any ideas?
Who else thinks Palmer will crash and burn at this election?
[So the churlish behaviour of some on the ALP right]
What exactly are you referring to?
The attitude certain parts of the Victorian and NSW Right have when it comes to negotiating preferences when there is no gain for the ALP.
Granted, in this case they’ve learned from the Fielding fiasco and not gone for conservatives above the Greens, but directing preferences to wacky fringe parties isn’t all that much brighter. I’d love to see the fun Labor could have with having to negotiate with the HEMP Party on whether or not they get to block Abbott legislation.
I agree with you about Palmer though. I think Tasmania was a big sign of the wheels falling off the Palmer train. His campaign was a mess and it really showed.
I think he *might* have been able to pull off a win in WA if he’d ditched Wang and put Headland at #1, although that didn’t work so well for the Nats.
The Fielding preference deal was negotiated by the Left.
I agree re: PUP. I think we’ve already seen the beef souffle rise once. Tas wasn’t very promising for them.
Not that 5% was a terrible effort. But if its not even making ‘early One Nation’ type inroads this soon after its launch, its mid-term prospects arent great.
https://twitter.com/Stirling_PUP/status/445765373137145857/photo/1/large
PUP may be smelling the breeze out in the West with this announcement
Is the RET popular in WA?
Rebecca: The left needs to learn that it’s not the 1970s anymore, socialist and communist partiea only get tiny pecentages of the vote and the Thatcher-Reagan changes are not going to be undone. Despite the success of Lenin, there was never a socialist revolution in
any advanced industrialised country.
Provided the Palmer Party doesn’t explode (or implode) before the next Qld elections, they will only do well over there, seeing how Newman has tarnished the conservative brand while Labor has still a long way to go with rebuilding its reputation.
By “well”, I mean slightly better than they have done in any election including the Federal one.
I don’t think there is quite the level of discontent in WA (ie Perth) that there was in September as far as Labor is concerned.
Barnett has had a terrible time and Brand Liberal is not travelling all that well.
Whether this is fertile ground for PUP is yet to be shown but I suspect 3-2-1, Liberal-Labor-Green is a reasonable scenario, given the Libs have gone off the boil, Labor is not so much on the nose (Shorten came and went here with barely a comment) and maybe not so many will turn out to vote.
I suppose a lot depends on how much money Palmer puts up.
Sorry, have to clarify that my point @46 applies to Queensland and not WA.
Psephos: I think the RET is pretty popular here in WA. My sample may be biased as a Green, but there are Greenish liberals here and the backlash from a State Government effort to reduce feed in tariffs for solar made them get back in their box. The State Liberal energy minister seems to be advocating renewables as a solution to the thinly distributed large and expensive South-West Integrated Grid. I suspect the WA public and Liberal voters I know, are quite pro renewables and the Liberals may avoid anything embarrassing on RET for fear of leaking votes to the Greens. As always theres the full broad church of opinions in WA, but I doubt rolling back the RET is a winner in WA.
>>The Fielding preference deal was negotiated by the Left.
Given the beneficiary of this finagling was supposed to have been Jacinta Collins how did that work?