BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

After a period of erratic poll results from various outfits, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate appears to be recovering its equilibrium.

This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,558 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  1. @@Rummel/2495

    Is this the same disgusting signs that Abbott and his “Convoy of No Confidence” displayed, saying shit like “Carbon Tax, Juliar bitch!” AND “Bob Brown’s bitch” ?

  3. [The sexist and violent signs aimed at Abbott were disgusting today.]

    Well, I guess Abbott shouldn’t have invented the practice, should he?

  5. [rummel
    Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    The sexist and violent signs aimed at Abbott were disgusting today.
    ]

    Sorry false accusation, the difference a b and d makes.

    It’s interesting isn’t it, Abbott proudly stood under “ditch the witch” Shorten distance himself from the extremes. Labor definitely has more class.

  8. “Stop Rimming Murdoch”

    “Abbott, Putting the N in Cuts”

    “No More Petitions, Kill the Politicians”

    “F%$K Abbott” Shirts on Sale

    Just some of the highlights of March in March, were these the same people complaining about the “Ditch the Witch” poster?

  10. [Just some of the highlights of March in March, were these the same people complaining about the “Ditch the Witch” poster?]

    No doubt!.

  11. [zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 10:18 pm | PERMALINK
    @Rummel/2504

    Can we discuss the DailyTerror comparing Labor Party to Nazi’s, China, etc?]

    Where?

  13. [ Frodo Baggins
    Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    “Stop Rimming Murdoch”

    “Abbott, Putting the N in Cuts”

    “No More Petitions, Kill the Politicians”

    “F%$K Abbott” Shirts on Sale

    Just some of the highlights of March in March, were these the same people complaining about the “Ditch the Witch” poster?
    ]
    The difference is Shorton didn’t buy or ware one.

  15. [
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 10:18 pm | PERMALINK
    @Rummel/2504

    Can we discuss the DailyTerror comparing Labor Party to Nazi’s, China, etc?

    Where?
    ]

    Front page, just before the electection Rummel, you do have a very short memory.

  16. [Just some of the highlights of March in March, were these the same people complaining about the “Ditch the Witch” poster?]

    Love how the right always gets a conscience… but only when it’s anti-Coalition supporters doing the alleged nasties.

    \Oh yes, shocking behaviour, terrible, hypocritical even. Foul language, violent, offensive…

    But only after you creeps have feasted yourselves on it first.

    Eff off.

    It’s OUR turn.

  18. [zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 10:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Yes, Rummel,

    Lets remember this:]

    Can’t see your point! Are we discussing the Labor Party or Conroy?

  21. http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6026788/

    For those who want to read stuff posted anonymously by pilots see above (or subsequent pages thereof). There are also absolutely amazing photos on this site!

    I see some of what I heard is now in the news but:
    * Pilot was tight with Malaysian Opposition
    * Pilot very close friend of Anwar
    * Pilot attended Anwar’s court case sitting in gallery
    * Pilot’s wife just left him
    (* The above two points raised the question about the nature of his relationship to Anwar as well but of course that is jut speculation and not actually insider info from other pilots)
    * Co-pilot was a regular attender at mosque and said to be a good muslim (not violent tendencies)…..although that didn’t appear to stop him inviting swedish girls into the cockpit and smoking!
    * There is a missing cargo manifest for this plane
    * The X-ray equipment was broken down the night MH took off (some inside Malaysian Airlines probably would have known that.

    Who knows how much of this is right and how much is not, but it was an interesting dinner party tonight! :devil:

  23. Nice false equivalence there.

    Are there any photos of the LOTO or shadow ministers smiling in front of these signs and providing their endorsement?

  25. rummel,

    Did Shorten and his front bench stand proudly in front of those posters like Abbott?

    If not, your comparison is as inane as everything else you contribute.

  28. When people discuss the ‘satellite’ states of the former USSR they either don’t know, haven’t researched or ignore the reason why there are so many Russians living in these countries.

    When the USSR annexed all those countries after WW2 they moved millions of Russians into those countries to ensure the Moscow doctrine was followed and to prevent uprisings among the indigenous populations seeking a return to their independence as a country in their own right. As they were before the occupation by USSR

  30. BK @ 2466

    I can empathise. Last night i saw “Her” by Spike Jonz. Dumbed down version of “a Space Oddity” when you think that artificial intelligence was given a far more serious treatment, with regards HAL.

    Seems Hollywood ‘icons – Tarantino and Jonz amongst them – are untouchable, but they’re merely appropriating others’ ideas.

  32. 4 corners tomorrow night

    Late last year the office of Canberra lawyer Bernard Collaery was raided by agents from ASIO and the Federal Police.

    [They were looking for documents that linked his client, a former top Australian spy, to disclosures that Australia had bugged East Timor’s Prime Minister and his advisors during crucial treaty talks a decade ago. Those talks resulted in a treaty that carved up billions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/03/13/3962821.htm

  34. mexican @2517

    I’m starting to think that all Tory MP’s have their brains physically altered to have their social responsibility removed, and replaced with a calculator that thinks only of immediate cost.

  36. 2504

    Abbott can be accused of a lot of things, without severe ridicule, being a Communist is not one of them (from any evidence I have seen).

  39. This is a sleeper issue which will explode one day.

    [A simple blood test could reveal within an hour of a head injury whether a football player should be allowed to return to the sport and how severe the concussion is, Swedish researchers claim.

    The finding, published today in the journal JAMA Neurology, comes in the wake of this week’s admission by former Australian rugby league player Ian Roberts that he has brain damage.]

    The NFL has set aside $900M for payouts to players with cumulative traumatic brain damage and have been told it isn’t nearly enough.

  42. Hey BB, go easy on our rational Tories. They r a listed threatened species – due I presume to habitat destruction and introduction of feral Tories (or feral Tonys).

  43. What does seem clear is that the governments involved, probably including Oz know more about MAS 370 than they are letting on….

  45. What does seem clear is that the governments involved, probably including Oz know less about MAS 370 than they are letting on….

  46. Nielsen

    March 13-15

    51-49 2PP to Coalition

    Primaries: ALP 35, Coalition 44, Greens 12, Independent 4, Other 6.

    Abbott: Approve 45, Disapprove 49
    Shorten: Approve 42, Disapprove 42

    PPM: Abbott 48, Shorten 43.

  47. Geoffrey….amongst he nonsense that you spout tell us…How do the Europeans find a substitute for Russian Gas”’it is delivered all over middle Europe by a vast network of pipelines and recently the Germans and the Russian built a new one down the Baltic Sea
    EVERYONE is dependent.on it….It cost ten of billion to build..how would one even replace it

    The fact is the Russian have the Gas
    The same situation is now arising in Turkey…with the USA calling for Turkish sanction and the Turks almost totally dependent on the Russian gas

    so explain how they stop using Russian oil..it will be cold comfort indeed

  48. Recent discussion re Anthony Beevor..
    Thosebooks were great…so to is a book he wrote with his wife.Artemis Cooper…..
    “Paris after the LIberation” …loking at the immediate post-war years and De Gaulle role after Liberation

    By Anthoiny Beevor and Artemis Cooper
    “Paris after the Liberation”

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