Seat of the week: Boothby

Another trip through a South Australian federal electorate to mark the looming state election – this time the southern coastal suburbs seat of Boothby, a nut Labor is never quite able to crack.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to the edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. It has existed without interruption since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993.

Boothby was held by Labor for the first eight years of its existence, and it remained a contested seat until the Menzies government came to power in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. The seat’s member from 1981 until 1996 was Steele Hall, former Premier and figurehead of the early 1970s breakaway Liberal Movement. A trend to Labor became evident after the election of the Howard government in 1996, with successive swings recorded over the next five elections. The swing that occurred amid the otherwise poor result of the 2004 election was particularly encouraging for Labor, and raised their hopes at both the 2007 and 2010 elections. On the former occasion, Right powerbrokers recruited what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes was damaged by a series of disastrous and heavily publicised media performances, and was only able to manage a swing of 2.4% compared with a statewide result of 6.8%. Perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote for Labor, the seat swung 2.2% in their favour at the 2010 election, compared with a statewide result of 0.8%. However, that still Labor 0.8% short of a win they had desperately hoped for to buttress losses in Queensland and New South Wales. With the seat off Labor’s target list in 2013, Southcott enjoyed a comfortable victory on the back of a 6.5% swing, which was 1.0% above the statewide par. Labor’s candidate in both 2010 and 2013 was Annabel Digance, who is now running in the seat of Elder for the March 15 state election.

Boothby has been held since 1996 by Andrew Southcott, who first won preselection at the age of 26 ahead of Robert Hill, the leading factional moderate in the Senate. The Right had reportedly built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its bitter rival Steele Hall, and turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate” when denied by Hall’s retirement. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led a fairly low-key parliamentary career, taking until after the 2007 election defeat to win promotion to Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. After standing by Malcolm Turnbull in the December 2009 leadership vote, Southcott was demoted by a victorious Tony Abbott to parliamentary secretary, a position he has retained in government. Southcott’s preselection at the 2010 election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was heavily defeated, his challenge reported losing steam when Kevin Rudd’s first bid to return to the Labor leadership came to a head in February 2012.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,687 comments on “Seat of the week: Boothby”

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  3. [Mick77
    Posted Monday, February 24, 2014 at 11:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Fraser is suddenly a pin-up boy for the far-left PBers]

    Absolutely not, but he did, with bipartisan support, quell the urgent need for Australians to be anti anything white.

    I’m so sorry that you don’t get it.

    Apart from that good deed, Fraser was an absolute arsehole.

    But I don’t expect any rightw(h)inging loony to ever say anything approaching good about Labor.

    You’re stuck in Abbott’s mindset of goodies versus baddies.

    [Rollin’ Rollin’ Rollin’

    Keep movin’, movin’, movin’,
    Though they’re disapprovin’,
    Keep them doggies movin’ Rawhide!
    Don’t try to understand ’em,
    Just rope and throw and grab ’em,
    Soon we’ll be living high and wide.]

  4. [Mick77
    Posted Monday, February 24, 2014 at 11:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Fraser is suddenly a pin-up boy for the far-left PBers]

    Absolutely not, but he did, with bipartisan support, quell the urgent need for Australians to be anti anything white.

    I’m so sorry that you don’t get it.

    Apart from that good deed, Fraser was an absolute arsehole.

    But I don’t expect any rightw(h)inging loony to ever say anything approaching good about Labor.

    You’re stuck in Abbott’s mindset of goodies versus baddies.

    [Rollin’ Rollin’ Rollin’

    Keep movin’, movin’, movin’,
    Though they’re disapprovin’,
    Keep them doggies movin’ Rawhide!
    Don’t try to understand ’em,
    Just rope and throw and grab ’em,
    Soon we’ll be living high and wide.]

  8. “Medicare co-payments and lifting the retirement age seems to have pushed the Coalition and Tony Abbott to their worst position since the election”

    Labor needs to go hard on this.

  17. confessions@1611

    LABOR’S support is the highest it has been since Kevin Rudd was removed as prime minister in 2010, as tough budget talk on Medicare co-payments and lifting the retirement age seems to have pushed the Coalition and Tony Abbott to their worst position since the election.


    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-figures-show-surge-in-support-for-labor-bill-shorten/story-fn59niix-1226836424811

    Hell!

    Why “Hell!”? Peaked too soon, you think?

  23. Newspoll

    Guess them stoopid buggerising 65%ers didn’t want the dirty AS treated so badly *kulled* after all.

    Or, maybe it’s the jobs.

    Or maybe it’s the union-bashing.

    Or maybe, just maybe, everyone’s sick of Abbott’s lies.

  24. Newspoll

    Guess them stoopid buggerising 65%ers didn’t want the dirty AS treated so badly *kulled* after all.

    Or, maybe it’s the jobs.

    Or maybe it’s the union-bashing.

    Or maybe, just maybe, everyone’s sick of Abbott’s lies.

  26. Hey, sorry about the double posts. Don’t know why.

    If it happens this time, I might re-set everything.

    Take care out there, fellow lefty bleeding hearts.

  30. Newspoll

    54-46 2PP to ALP

    Primaries: Coalition 39, ALP 39, Greens 10, Others 12

    Better PM: Abbott 38, Shorten 37

    Abbott: Satisfied 36, Dissatisfied 52
    Shorten: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 39

  32. Labor needs to go hard on this That’s right – when the Coalition talks about boats, batts or Thomson, highlight that the Abbott Government is presiding over the collapse of manufacturing in Australia and enormous job losses; that it has started down the path to dismantle Medicare and other social programs; and that if you’re an employee, they believe you’re paid too much.

  35. Any one get the feeling the wheels are falling off this Government. This Newspoll remember was taken before the gaffes of the last few days. Could all the Shorten critics pls StFU and recognise he is playing a long game, very well may I say.

  36. [#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-3) ALP 54 (+3) #auspol]

    Awesome.

    So,which was it? Wheeling that gimp Dutton out to fly a kite on medicare, or the gulag on Manus?

    My guess is the former 80%,latter 20.

    When will the NP learn? Mess with medicare, and you LOSE.

  37. [Primaries: Coalition 39, ALP 39]

    When was the last time we saw the coalition PV so low in published polling?

    Tempted to call BS on this poll.

  38. [Where is Mod Lib/Everything?]

    Had an urgent surgical matter to attend to, dontcha know. Real world, and all that.

    I’d say he’s filling out forms for the next LIME conference. What could be more important than braggingly showing your true colours on PB after 6 years of pretence.

  39. It’s Murdoch’s paper so the far left losers will need to discredit the result, won’t they…?

    How about “they only polled PBers”. Yep, that’ll do.

  41. Seems a bit roguish in extent, but heading the right direction.

    Newman got spanked on the weekend too.

    Cheers me up after Australia’s dismal batting capitulation last night.

  44. [Tempted to call BS on this poll.]

    Nah!! This far out from an election, and knowing it will be up and down in the future, just enjoy the moment. 🙂

    Suck on that Fiberal Scum. 🙂

  46. 54/46 seems to good to be true – polls go up and down. Assuming a sample size of about 2,000, the margin of error is 2%. It sure beats 46/54 any day.

    Another recent poll cited earlier in this thread had Labor at 50/5/49.5, down from 52/48. The true position is likely to be between that and the latest Newspoll.

  48. Bloody hell that Newspoll is a beaut set of numbers for the ALP at this early stage of a new Gov. And early signs of unrest in the LnP with Cabinet leaks, the Hockey Club, Manus, AG and PM not communicating, and more bad news in the offing with the imminent ICJ decision. And when the f…ck will we get the Ashby decision.

  49. Malcolm Fraser had an major role in the ending of apartheid in South Africa when he was deemed an exemplery person

    On a whole range of international matters in the past he has had a truly liberal democratic position
    He warns of the dangers of our alliance with the US and of a conflict with China
    He has spoken out on Israeli apartheid laws on the West Bank and condemned the terrible conditions of the Palestinian people
    at the hands of the Netanyaho gang..for which he has not time at all
    a great statesman !!

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