McMillan extends through West Gippsland from Pakenham in Melbourne’s eastern outskirts to the western reaches of the Latrobe Valley, and along the coast from Wonthaggi through Wilsons Promontory to Welshpool. It covered broadly similar territory on its creation in 1949, the area having previously been covered by Gippsland and to a smaller extent by Flinders. The redistribution following the expansion of parliament in 1984 caused it to lose its coastal territory while extending further eastwards along the Princes Highway to Traralgon, which was eventually reversed by the redistribution of 2004. The transfer of Traralgon and neighbouring Latrobe Valley towns to Gippsland on the latter occasion substantially weakened Labor, and the seat has been held by the Liberals ever since.
Conservative strength in the rural areas kept McMillan in Liberal hands from 1949 until 1980, barring a National/Country Party interruption from 1972 to 1975 when it was won and then lost by Arthur Hewson. However, post-war growth in the Latrobe Valley strengthened Labor over time, leading to a close result in 1974, a relatively mild anti-Labor swing in 1975, and finally a win for Labor candidate Barry Cunningham in 1980. Cunningham was swept out a decade later with the statewide backlash that cost Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, but he recovered the seat by a 0.4% margin in 1993. This was not enough to save him from even the relatively modest swing Labor suffered in Victoria at the 1996 election, when Russell Broadbent gained the seat for the Liberals with a swing of 2.5%.
Broadbent first came to parliament in 1990 as member for Corinella, a seat to the immediate west of McMillan which existed from 1990 to 1996. He was defeated at the 1993 election by Labor’s Alan Griffin, who moved to his present home of Bruce with the abolition of Corinella. Broadbent returned as member for McMillan three years later, before again experiencing the sharp end of life in a marginal seat with his defeat 25-year-old Labor candidate Christian Zahra in 1998. Zahra added 2.3% to his margin against the trend of the 2001 election, before emerging a big loser when his electorate traded Morwell and Traralgon for conservative farming and coastal areas around Leongatha and Wonthaggi. Zahra was left needing a 2.9% to retain his seat in 2004, but a 2.1% swing the other way saw it change hands for the fifth time in six elections.
Thus began a remarkable third stint in parliament for Broadbent, who went on to perform very strongly in limiting the swings against him to 0.2% in 2007 and 0.4% in 2010, before securing his hold with a swing of 7.6% in 2013. He has been assisted by a trend against Labor in the Latrobe Valley and surrounding areas, which has been equally evident at state level. Broadbent has failed to win promotion, but has generated headlines on a number of occasions with his liberal positions on asylum seekers.
Centre@3248
You see, perhaps the most beautiful aspect of Australia’s indigenous game, is a perfectly executed Hip’n’shoulder tackle.
It also happens to be the most devastatingly brutal tackle of any sport.
Then there is the sheer joy of seeing a little rover take the ball out of the half back, take a couple of bounces, then shoot in a 60 mt raking left foot kick, dead eye dick into the middle of the Goals. (Especially, if that Bloke is bald, wears the # 29 on his Yellow and Black back, and has a front lacing jumper)
@djackmanson: And you all said NK was crazy MT @DrJavaBeans: Queen Elizabeth II prepares to welcome home England’s #Ashes team http://t.co/Wg1ODI1KNy
taylormade@3250
Why ?
The reason for the Ice being there is suggestive of AGW in the first place.
Only an ignorant ill informed, fool would try and as any paint thing otherwise.
Re 3245 – Hydrogen bonding: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_bonding
Ship stuck in Summer Ice not Climate Change, just weather
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/03/antarctica-ice-trapped-academik-shokalskiy-climate-change
[
Research ship trapped in Antarctic ice because of weather, not climate change
Rapid build up of ice that trapped the research vessel Academik Shokalskiy tells us very little about global warming]
When it’s hot… it’s Global Warming.
When it’s cold…. shut up!!! It’s just the weather!!
@belungerer: Getup! campaign to build a baseload solar power station in Port Augusta. Brilliant concept, wonder if we could crowdfund it? @BundyLeanne
ST
@jfjabbo: An astonishing, dangerous cold snap is about to descend on the U.S. #Climate_Change?
http://t.co/EDbuGDekpR
The Labor Right is essentially Coalition-lite. Psephos is a right winger, not a progressive.
YB
Funny @ 3251
You know I think that Soccer have really got to get with the times and introduce video replays.
Also I can’t believe that at the end of each half they add time on to the 45 minutes for stoppages.
Truly, it’s 2014, do you think they could find the technology to pause play time for stoppages? 😆
C’mon, the so called world game, embrace technology, they need it badly 😎
@Sean/3255
It’s a ship – not a person.
So and?
“The reasons for the trends in sea ice are still being debated. However, for the Arctic it is estimated that anthropogenic forcing through the emission of greenhouse gases has contributed 50–60% of the long-term decline of Arctic sea ice. The remaining contribution is believed to come from natural variability”
Sean
Climate change has different impacts for different parts of the world for example its quite possible that Europe will become colder.
According to the models Australia will in the medium term become dryer then in the longer term wetter as weather systems move southward.
Winter is coming
Re 3255 – Chess with pigeons.
It really is amusing seeing the luddites cherry pick different events to support some sort of contention that AGW does not exist, and yet, when you look into the causes of these “events”, which the luddites clearly haven’t done, it serves as a chilling reminder that AGW is most likely happening.
Look at this boat stuck in the ice down in Antarctica, when you look into just why the Ice is so bad down there, it’s very obvious related to a warming climate.
Sean: ‘When it’s cold…. shut up!!! It’s just the weather’ you’ve worked it out Sean, it is a great big conspiracy to stop you finding out about the new ice age. Better go out and buy a few more jumpers (apparently very cheap,at the moment – bad sales due to a very hot 2013.)
Who cares what stupid anecdotal argument Sean is using. He’s wrong. Sean is probably the least influential person in the country, so let him believe in leprechauns if he wants to. He’s wrong.
Give me a scientific consensus based on years of objective, peer-reviewed research, then I’ll change my view. Speculate based on a ship getting trapped in ice and I am not even going to bother with such rank bullshit.
I do love the way Sean quotes from an article which attributes ice melt to climate change in order to discredit climate change.
Tisme
I’m no climate expert but I believe that apparently the heat that is trapped in the earth’s atmosphere from the emissions of carbon dioxide which causes global warming ALSO causes lots of extreme weather patterns.
We are going to get everything, including very hot, cold, cyclones, hurricanes and even probably snow in Townsville soon, but mainly more very hot 😛
This might interest Sean
It relates to what happens if the ocean jet stream is stopped
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fresources%2Fclimate%2Fabruptclimate.asp&ei=wT_JUve7DseAlQWt74D4Bg&usg=AFQjCNFmE47X32XHDIAt8LpI0cS0WCUkMg&bvm=bv.58187178,d.aGc&cad=rja
Paul Austin@3258
You do Psephos a grave injustice and you are intellectually dishonest.
Carey
That might be a good strategy but there are many sean’s out there that don’t believe the climate science.
As long as the government is willing to dismiss CC then they will feel vindicated.
The Labor right is today’s political center and as long as the ALP have a strong right it will be the dominated political party in the center.
Goodnight.
[It really is amusing seeing the luddites cherry pick different events to support some sort of contention that AGW does not exist]
LOL! Hang on a second it’s the warmists that are cherry picking.
That article I posted from the leftwing Guardian that all those ships stuck in the thicker than normal Antrartican summer ice is just “weather” was written by none other than one of the Warmist scientists.
So just when is something just “weather” and when is it “climate”? When it suits the lefts argument is when.
Beemer it’s spelt “centre” the Americans spell it “center” 😀
Sean is not bright enough to understand the difference between weather and climate.
Don’t bother letting him drag PB down to his level by trying to explain. A reputable dictionary should be all he needs.
Stuff that expands on frezing.
silicon
Gallium
Germanium
Antimony
Bismuth
Acetic Acid
Water
pretty short list.
Sean
Climate change isn’t just about warming
If the Atlantic Jet stream moved south Europe & North America would be plunged into colder weather
The models show the topical weather of north Queensland would move south pushing nsw weather into Victoria.
This would impact on the agricultural sector.
Sean does it take much effort to appear to be so stupid or is it a natural skill?
Thanks Centre, yes i am guilty of not wanting to fight the spell checker
[Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, January 5, 2014 at 10:27 pm | Permalink
….
When it suits the lefts argument is when.
]
What are you saying sean, science is a left concept? The right is into faith based concepts?
Tisme
Think of it like the stock market.
The trend might be that the market is going up, but you will have down days.
You cannot say that the market is trending down because of some down days.
That’s exactly what you are doing with the weather and climate.
Lookout the phones are starting to ring to get on Tisme 😈
Sean
such a pity you went to all the trouble of reading the article without understanding it.
We’ve often told you that weather isn’t climate, so it’s no shock to any of us when a climate scientist also says weather isn’t climate.
You take his word for it on this, but apparently don’t believe him when it comes to global warming. If he’s wrong on the second, it’s strange you trust him on the first — the ultimate in cherry picking.
Sean
Winter is coming
Sean Tisme@3273
err, the article suggested nothing of the sort.
But do carry on exposing us to your complete inability at cognitive thought.
[
mexicanbeemer
Posted Sunday, January 5, 2014 at 6:32 pm | Permalink
And when Sean has finished listening to the earlier posted video on Indonesia here are pictures of the Jakarta skyline, very impressive for an emerging country
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=730218
]
Went to Jakarta last year, first time I have seen the sun as a faint glow because of polution, even Beijing wasn’t as bad. It went on for days. It takes some getting used to.
Ya better lay us a few more rupees on Sean, Centre.
If climate zones in Australia move 800 to 1,000 km South ( a possible outcome of Global Warming) it’s not good news for Perth and SW WA – they lose most of their rainfall. We lose most of the wheat belt. Summer rainfall increases, Winter rainfall decreases. A wealthy, sparsely populated country like Australia with many climate zones might adapt but the economic dislocation would be severe. Most of the world won’t be in such a goid positio
YB
where’s Mod LIB?
7.5 rupees to 3 rupees – Tisme
Done!
[3267
Centre
I’m no climate expert but I believe that apparently the heat that is trapped in the earth’s atmosphere from the emissions of carbon dioxide which causes global warming ALSO causes lots of extreme weather patterns.]
Adding ever more heat to a thermodynamic system increases instability, unpredictability, and the number and degree of extreme events.
And it doesn’t happen in a nice smooth comfortable manageable linear conservative middle-class way.
[err, the article suggested nothing of the sort.]
It says it in the first few sentences of the article, what are you on about?
The truth is that weather and “climate” is so complex only a complete liar would claim to know what will happen in the future. Like claiming Queensland dams will never fill again for example.
If the bloke at the BOM with all his fancy equipment can’t tell me whether it will rain tomorrow, why the fudge would a “climate scientist” know what the weather will be in 10 years?
It’s bunkum, absolute horse crap. And while the theory of global warming increasing the temp slightly due to CO2 emissions, nobody… and I mean… nobody… can predict future weather patterns.
Centre@3288
Sean makes Mod Lib look like Stephen Hawking
[Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, January 5, 2014 at 10:49 pm | Permalink
..
I mean… nobody… can predict future weather patterns.
]
Science is a bitch isn’t it Sean.
The sad thing for you lot is science is pretty good at predicting the future and Nature isn’t going ot stop for right wing bullshit. Faith is not enough.
Sean Tisme@3290
I read beyond the (sic) “first few sentences”.
Unlike you evidently.
YB oh no, I’ve just read post 3290.
Everything $1.50
Tisme $2.75
The re the Big Freeze in the USA
________________
I have family in Chicago and my son said tonight that in the years he has been there there has never been such a ferocious chill
My grandson’s school has closed… and in fact they have broken a new Chicago record in which for more tham 60 hours the temp. hasn’t got above 0 deg even in the middle of the day…and a low of -20 and is common
They live in a well heated suburban house,with an emergency generator in the large basement…which would keep the gas and fans which supply heating going if there was a major power failure(all the power lines are
underground however)
There hss been msssive snowfalls ..up to 1/2 a metre some days and driving is real hazard with many roads and freeways closed,,,some being a real hazard at night
Neverlessthe my grandson the 9 year old snow bunny has had his father out pulling his sledge up a nearby hill and zooming down…and my son has aready supply of Bundy to make hot toddy to keep body and soul together as he says
Nevertheless they all feel a bit threatened by the severity of the blast and the knowledge that this is unknown territory..and no sign of an end
While O’Hare Airport has been closed down for days AMTRAK is still runniong …trains function OK is such weather and all the AMTRAK services have been crammed with folks who never thought to use a train before and the Republicans hate AMTRAK…it’s a socialist enterprise run with Federal funds(which Bush cut off)
[3245
don
Without that quirk of physics, life on earth would be very difficult indeed.]
It certainly would.
Sean, the chess playing pigeon.
Sean
Okay lets ponder this for a moment
What if the scientist have underestimated climate change?
Is it better to have acted and the science be totally wrong and nothing happens or is it better to do nothing and the climate changes in ways that match the modelling or are worst then some fear?
aul Austen””re Labor right
________________________
I agree with your comment on this topic
Many are so devoted to the cause of the USA that the have no real foreign policy and as you say some are Howard “Lite..”.and have an odd old Cold War hatred toward China which might come from the DLP…which some of them resemble on a range of topics
@MB/3298
Some say the Climate Change argument is like the Y2k Bug.