Seat of the week: McMillan

After a long career as a marginal seat, the West Gippsland electorate of McMillan has bucked the statewide trend of recent decades by moving decisively to the Liberals.

McMillan extends through West Gippsland from Pakenham in Melbourne’s eastern outskirts to the western reaches of the Latrobe Valley, and along the coast from Wonthaggi through Wilsons Promontory to Welshpool. It covered broadly similar territory on its creation in 1949, the area having previously been covered by Gippsland and to a smaller extent by Flinders. The redistribution following the expansion of parliament in 1984 caused it to lose its coastal territory while extending further eastwards along the Princes Highway to Traralgon, which was eventually reversed by the redistribution of 2004. The transfer of Traralgon and neighbouring Latrobe Valley towns to Gippsland on the latter occasion substantially weakened Labor, and the seat has been held by the Liberals ever since.

Conservative strength in the rural areas kept McMillan in Liberal hands from 1949 until 1980, barring a National/Country Party interruption from 1972 to 1975 when it was won and then lost by Arthur Hewson. However, post-war growth in the Latrobe Valley strengthened Labor over time, leading to a close result in 1974, a relatively mild anti-Labor swing in 1975, and finally a win for Labor candidate Barry Cunningham in 1980. Cunningham was swept out a decade later with the statewide backlash that cost Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, but he recovered the seat by a 0.4% margin in 1993. This was not enough to save him from even the relatively modest swing Labor suffered in Victoria at the 1996 election, when Russell Broadbent gained the seat for the Liberals with a swing of 2.5%.

Broadbent first came to parliament in 1990 as member for Corinella, a seat to the immediate west of McMillan which existed from 1990 to 1996. He was defeated at the 1993 election by Labor’s Alan Griffin, who moved to his present home of Bruce with the abolition of Corinella. Broadbent returned as member for McMillan three years later, before again experiencing the sharp end of life in a marginal seat with his defeat 25-year-old Labor candidate Christian Zahra in 1998. Zahra added 2.3% to his margin against the trend of the 2001 election, before emerging a big loser when his electorate traded Morwell and Traralgon for conservative farming and coastal areas around Leongatha and Wonthaggi. Zahra was left needing a 2.9% to retain his seat in 2004, but a 2.1% swing the other way saw it change hands for the fifth time in six elections.

Thus began a remarkable third stint in parliament for Broadbent, who went on to perform very strongly in limiting the swings against him to 0.2% in 2007 and 0.4% in 2010, before securing his hold with a swing of 7.6% in 2013. He has been assisted by a trend against Labor in the Latrobe Valley and surrounding areas, which has been equally evident at state level. Broadbent has failed to win promotion, but has generated headlines on a number of occasions with his liberal positions on asylum seekers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,364 comments on “Seat of the week: McMillan”

Comments Page 3 of 68
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  3. Peebee and others

    As an I pad owner for a year or so I have to advise give it time. You will grow to like it. I am not a “consumer” and agonised long and hard before buying but have never regretted it. I might even buy a mini for an overseas trip in a few months.
    As for it being a conduit for cash to apple? Well apart from the purchase price they have had very little out of me. Its up to you.

  5. liyana,

    [Brandis in The Australian – ” human rights are innate” Unbelievable ! I don’t think he knows what innate means …..]

    Surely he was misquoted?

    He probably said something like, “human rights are for ingrates”, or “human rights are only for Inuits – until they come here by kayak, this is…”

  6. [Assuming no deliberate misinformation was being distributed (which is surely the most charitable starting point?), Abbott’s girlfriend found herself pregnant, asked him to “do the right thing by her”, and found that he was unwilling to do so – an understandable reaction from many normal 19 year old males, but one that reflects on /him/, not on anyone else.]

    She was sleeping around, how is that Abbotts fault??

    And did you expect him to pay child support payments for 18 years for a kid that wasn’t his? That sounds like fraud to me.

  7. Just wanted to share this letter from today’s SMH:

    I agree with Sir Richard Hadlee’s take on the Brett Lee/Piers Morgan stunt: dangerous, stupid and potentially lethal. That said, I wonder if Piers Akerman could be persuaded to pad up?
    Stephen Driscoll Carlingford

  8. Thanks rossmcg and guytaur for your tips and encouragement. I do like the idea that you pick it up and it is on and ready to use. Ideal for blogging and watching tv. I don’t like the keyboard (back to two finger typing) abut it is quiet – much to my oh delight.

  12. ST

    Its only fraud if the mother knowingly lied. Not even Abbott has claimed any such thing. So get your hand off it.

    The only comment I make as its private life media should have left alone.

  15. PeeBee@108

    Thanks rossmcg and guytaur for your tips and encouragement. I do like the idea that you pick it up and it is on and ready to use. Ideal for blogging and watching tv. I don’t like the keyboard (back to two finger typing) abut it is quiet – much to my oh delight.

    For about $50 you can get a bluetooth keyboard for your iPad. I find it good if typing a lot but otherwise, if mainly just reading, don’t bother with it.

  16. Abbott’s version of what happened – if he’s happy to put it in his own book it’s OK for us to pass the link around and discuss it.
    http://books.google.com.au/books?id=R42rfIr82LkC&pg=PT5&lpg=PT5&dq=tony+abbott+decided+against+marrying+his+pregnant+girlfriend&source=bl&ots=3jPuuKXPcF&sig=0SFak0-cKHGZch0JLac4aq9jB14&hl=en&sa=X&ei=mh_CUuvCNuWWiAefkoCYDw&ved=0CHIQ6AEwCTgU#v=onepage&q=tony%20abbott%20decided%20against%20marrying%20his%20pregnant%20girlfriend&f=false

  17. guy

    [The only comment I make as its private life media should have left alone.]

    It was Tones who was proudly proclaiming ‘I found my son’.

  18. Ctar

    Yes. The media should have kknown better than to listen. 😛

    I had forgotten that. Cannot blame media when person opens the door.

  19. With just under 12 hours left of 2013 may I wish all PBers with a couple of exceptions my very best wishes for 2014. I have to be careful re the exceptions as seem to get into trouble with the power of PB when I commnent on the baby and or it’s alto egos

    Anyway all the best, hope to see you next year 😀

  22. [leone
    Posted Tuesday, December 31, 2013 at 11:02 am | PERMALINK
    In the early 1960s a girl getting ‘into trouble’ was a serious crime against society. There was no sole parent pension back then and it was shameful to be a single mother. If a shotgun wedding was out of the question a pregnant girl was packed off somewhere out of sight to have her baby and these babies were always given up for adoption. Think of Tony Abbott and his girlfriend – he chickened out of marrying her so her baby had to be given away.

    At my girls high school a girl would just not turn up one day. If anyone asked where she was the excuse was always the same – she had gone to stay with family in the country and would be studying by corresponcdence for a while. These girls never came back to school.

    Even twenty years ago this sort of thing was still going on, as I learnt when former friends stopped sending Christmas newsletters – their daughter had become pregnant at age 17, had been sent away to have the baby and it had been given up for adoption. I could not believe how they could have so easily discarded their own grand-child.]

    It was indeed a different time. The damage done to countless families was immeasurable. Thank goodness we have now progressed as a society.

  23. “@GeorgeNegus: LNP seeking World Heritage de-listing of GB Reef? They’ve got to be joking – except they have no bloody sense of humour! #auspol”

    Are they planning to mine the reef for its minerals?

    Just gobsmacking!!!

  24. PeeBee

    re text size magnification – two-finger spread

    re smudge screen, I felt the same initially, you get over it, clean with towelette once in a while. Too busy enjoying convenience.

    Also practise ‘caressing’ not pushing the icons etc

    Oh and investigate Dropbox for simple file xfer via ‘cloud’

  38. [WWP

    Medicare is Labors legacy. Not fighting hard for Medicare would mean Labor has died and is a dead party walking]

    You wish, dead party walking wise. But Australia has voted for this government we deserve what we get. What Labor should be doing is ensuring it has no impact on pensioners and the long term ill, and perhaps cap it to 20 visits a year.

    Otherwise is is just people who can afford it paying $5 – $10 extra a year for their one or two visits.

    Labor should point out that middle and high income earners already pay a fortune for medicare through their wages. Make people nice and upset with Abbott – take the credit for protecting the needy.

  39. WWP

    You seem to fail to understand what Universal Health Care is.

    Its Universal Health Care or Its the American system. The American system came abot by following the arguments you make.

    Take away the Universal and you start picking winners, which means the rich wins.

  40. You say I fail to understand and then you say:

    [Its Universal Health Care or Its the American system.]

    Really there is universal health care as defined by guytaur or there is the US system and there is nothing else. Sean would embarrassed saying something so stupid, and he does stupid for fun.

  42. [WWP

    Go look up the dictionary definition of Universal]

    You idiot, it is universal FREE healthcare you are fighting for, it is the FREE you are considering and it is the FREE that would disappear. Look I’m not saying it is a good idea, I’m not saying I like it, but I think the libs can make Labor look stupid if they oppose it totally, and speaking of making our side look stupid they have you working for them.

  43. The Democrats argued like you and ended up with Insurance Company run Health care.

    Also saying free in relation to health is false. Its all paid for one way or another.

  44. “@Scringler2: Libs would love to dismantle Medicare, but it’d be political suicide. Instead, they’ll use every sly, underhand trick to undermine it.”

  45. [The Democrats argued like you and ended up with Insurance Company run Health care.

    Also saying free in relation to health is false. Its all paid for one way or another.]

    I disagree re the democrats, as for the ‘free’ I agree with you it is a silly thing to argue, which leaves you without an argument.

  46. WWP

    No it leaves you arguing against Universal Health Care.

    Unlike me, the ALP as confirmed by that Bill Shorten tweet and the Greens. You are arguing the LNP position.

  47. [No it leaves you arguing against Universal Health Care.]

    No not so much, I’m arguing the politics of fighting for people who can afford it not to pay $5 a visit. I’m not saying it is good, it is bad, but I can see the Australia doing wall to wall ‘hypochondriac, workers comp bludgers milking Australia’s medical system of millions of dollars a year’ type stories. Given the Australian journalist standards they don’t even need to find actual examples they can just make it up.

  48. Philomena is a splendid fil with an academy award(??)winning role to the incompaable Dame Judi Dench

    It deals with the subject of unmarried girls condemned to the hellish world of convent-launderies in Dublin and the loss is her chil;d
    It is now showing widely… a brilliant film

    I’ll post Bod Ellis’ review of the film

  50. WWP,

    Labor can legitimately question the scope of the change, whether it will achieve the prescribed Budget reductions, whether the proposed changes are simply cost shifts and the inefficiencies of the proposed means of collection.

    They should also demonstrate how they could make the appropriate savings to achieve the Budget savings.

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