Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

After a string of mediocre post-election ratings from other pollsters, the first Newspoll is more in line with what governments can normally expect in the first blush of their honeymoon.

The first Newspoll in the life of the new government shows the anticipated honeymoon bounce which has not been evident in earlier entries from Essential Research, Morgan and Research. The poll has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 47% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Tony Abbott leads Bill Shorten 47-28 as preferred prime minister, which is a lot closer to Essential Research’s result from last week than Morgan’s. Tony Abbott’s net approval has gone from minus six to plus thirteen, his approval up three to 47% and disapproval down sixteen to 34%, while Bill Shorten’s debut ratings are 32% approval and 24% disapproval.

UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research is unchanged at 53-47, although both sides are up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 45% and Labor to 35% – but with the Greens (10%) and others (11%) unchanged owing to the vagaries of rounding. Also featured are questions on leader attributes (Abbott is up five or six points on capable, understanding of the problems facing Australia, good in a crisis and honest, although off a low base in the latter two cases). Debut numbers are also featured for Bill Shorten, and his biggest deficits against Abbott relate to the negative qualities of the latter – narrow-mindedness, arrogance and intolerance. Questions on the New South Wales bushfires are perhaps a little more climate-sceptic than I might have anticipated, with 48% thinking them unlikely to be linked to climate change. Similarly, 46% say the carbon tax should be replaced either with the Liberals’ “direct action ” plan (15%) or nothing at all (31%), against 15% in favour of keeping the carbon tax and 21% opting for an emissions trading scheme. Forty-eight per cent of respondents thought Tony Abbott too soft on politicians’ expenses against 26% for about right and 3% who somehow thought he was too tough.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,218 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [yes, whereas people here are able to identify the opinions of various Liberals because….]

    because Danby is saying that’s what is happening and that’s super reliable

  2. … . In fact you could mount a very good argument that there actually aren’t any Buddhists as there is no real definition of a “Buddhist”.

    According to Indian and Tibetan Buddhist tenets there is a definition of “Buddhist”- namely one who goes to refuge to the Buddha, Dharma and Sangha, from the depths of their heart. As to whether this, or any other definition is “real”…. too hard for me, but Buddhist scholars would have plenty to say about that.

    It is of some comfort to me in darker moments to contemplate that Tony Abbott is a mere dependent arising, without essence, unfindable under analysis – a mere appearance; which it is our group karma to experience – and definitely impermanent

  3. [because Danby is saying that’s what is happening and that’s super reliable]

    No, because people are recalling the ambiguity of the then Liberal comms spokesperson’s words, and what’s happening now that they’re in govt.

    [Beijing has criticised the Abbott Government for upholding Labor’s decision to lock Chinese telco giant Huawei out of bidding for the new National Broadband Network (NBN).]

    [Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull had promised to review the ban and suggested the company could provide equipment to the project.]
    [Last week while in China Trade Minister Andrew Robb described Huawei as a “well-respected” company in Australia.]

    A pattern is emerging with this mob.

  4. max:

    Yes, I know that phrase “take refuge in the Buddha, the Dharma, and the Sangha”… fact I can say it in Pali/Sanskrit! However, it is less clear exactly what it means to say this. In other words, anyone, who believes anything, might say this as an indication that they go to Buddhist teachings to seek comfort perhaps?

    To my knowledge, there is no word in Buddhist teaching for “faith” in the Judeo-Christian sense of the word. “Saddha” comes close (and is translated by Christians as “faith”) but this is a mistranslation I think and Saddha is closer to “confidence” or “interest” or something along those lines.

  5. confessions

    A pattern is emerging with this mob.]
    They follow the Abbottabad Doctrine. If it is not down in writing then anything they say is bullshit.

  6. Info on NY Hotel_ Broadway Plaza
    Any PBer who is planning a visit to New York will find this hotel excellent…as we have on several recent visits ..the most recent being two months ago……………and under very nice Hispanic family management too
    It only a few blocks from Penn Station and great for Amtrak trains and close to a subway station and lots of cafes and delis..and a 15/20 minutes walk to Macy’s if you MUST shop…and beyond that the theatre district and Times Square

    It costs between $150-$200 per night and gives an very adequate breakfast which you can gather on a tray from the breakfast/buffet room and then take and eat in your own room… on the table there

    This site shows all the rooms and facilities in a series of pics Despite being on Broadway it’s quiet and we didn’t notice the traffic…

    though one evening at dusk…getting ready to go our for a meal…. I looked down from our fourth floor room into the street below(it’s on a corner)to see a young man waiting at the light to cross,carrying a small case…and completely naked…amazing sight and nobody seemed to be reacting in any way The lights changed and he crossed and went up the side street…only in New York
    Not to be confuced with THE Plaza Hotel the
    grandest and most expensive hotel in New York and recently restored at the cost of $450million…but the ultimate hotel with suites going for $1500 a night…if you have to ask the cost you can’t afford it

  7. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 10:08 pm | PERMALINK
    So has Abbott actually archived anything yet?]

    Rudd and Gillard for starters! :devil:

  8. Steve777

    [when Abbott says this you know he’s telling the truth]

    or more precisely, he actually does believe, at least as he is saying it, regardless of its correspeondence with observable reality, what follows next.

    The best liars follow the George Costanza principle:

    It’s not a lie, if you believe it.

  9. @Mod Lib/1163

    So the normal then, blame the other, while not doing anything about the rest of country, this is why Politicians are rated so low.

  10. ML
    I’d expect that you would know that phrase if you designate yourself as a Buddhist.

    At least in the system with which I’m familiar, and to the limited extent of my understanding – the phrase “from the depths of one’s heart” implies more than seeking temporary comfort. In the tradition that i’m familiar with, refuge also implies that one relies on Buddha, Dharma and Sangha with the objective at least of avoiding an unfavourable rebirth – not merely comfort or favourable conditions in this life. Alternatively one can rely on Buddha, Dharma, and Sangha with the objectives of achieving liberation or enlightenment. Yes, on the faith point, as it has been explained to me, one takes refuge having a “confidence based belief” in Buddha, Dharma, Sangha – not “faith” in the sense that the term seems to be used In Judeo-Christian systems.

  11. max:

    Fair enough….I think we are not far off each others positions and the difference is basically interpretation of translations from a language long dead, into other languages which are poorly translated by believers of other religions (most of the translations where from Christian scholars) so we might have lost the precise meaning a millennia or two ago!

    Another interesting point, and further argument in favour of the absence of any real meaning to being “a Buddhist” is that there is no word for non-believer (i.e. nothing equivalent to heathen, infidel or heretic in Buddhist scholarly texts). It is one of the things which I quite like about Buddhism…

  12. zoidlord

    Posted Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    So has Abbott actually archived anything yet?

    $8.8 billion borrowed to give to the RBA

    Debt ceiling raised by 33% to $500 billion

    Climate Commission now supported by the public and not the public purse.

    And he got to ride in a fire truck

  13. [AussieAchmed

    $8.8 billion borrowed to give to the RBA]

    Providing financial security to the RBA- good move.

    [Debt ceiling raised by 33% to $500 billion]

    Just a measure to cover the debt the ALP has already racked up with a safety buffer

    [Climate Commission now supported by the public and not the public purse.]

    Same outcomes for free- typical Liberal brilliance!

    [And he got to ride in a fire truck]

    And he is a volunteer firefighter to boot. Almost too good to be true, really, aint it?

  14. Raising debt ceiling to 500 billion – probably the correct decision – the Coalition are continuing Labor’s fiscal policy after 4 years of railing against ‘debt and deficit’. The Senate should scrutinise it closely – 40 billion before Christmas, another 40 next year and the last 40 just before the next election. And scrutinise waste – like plans for parental leave at full salary for executives, a plan for Direct Action that no credible authority says will work, tax rorts for company cars. Also, maybe millionaire self funded whingers/retirees should pay the same tax as employees. And insist that mining companies pay a fair price for extracting resources owned by the Australian people. And until we’ve addressed higher priorities, maybe we can cut handouts to exclusive private schools (who keep out the riffraff) and private health funds (called, incorrectly, a ‘rebate’ to members). The list is endless.

  15. @Mod Lib/1174

    As they say, Labor Bad Debt, Liberal Good Debt, right?

    So where is this $250 billion going, and when we will see some action for it?

    Will most of that money go towards private companies, which will go to overseas bank accounts?

  16. Mod

    Same outcomes for free- typical Liberal brilliance!

    Typical Liberal selfishness. Sponging of the rest of us who are saving the world from your selfish asses for all of our descendants.

  17. [DisplayName
    …Typical Liberal selfishness. Sponging of the rest of us who are saving the world from your selfish asses for all of our descendants.]

    You are saving the world by paying Flannery $180k?

    What do we get if he gets a Xmas bonus- Mars gets saved too?

  18. Roberts speaks of The Republic of Denial
    Roberts is Former ASSt- Tresurer of the USA and now a radical old man and critic of US policies on the economy and the environment

    Robersts looks at the policies of denial in re the destruction of the natural world,and our rescources of water and food and the refusal to face the facts of what is happening around us…by those in power

    It could be a critic of Abbott and Co rather than of the USA

  19. davidwh

    [ML I’m sure people here realise the $250 billion is only available facility rather that money borrowed but it make good press.]

    Surely borrowing is a heinous crime against the future? A mortal sin and clear evidence of utter turpitude — a sign that a government has lost its right to rule?

    I look forward to Hockey defending such claims at a future presser and having his blithering quoted against him 😉

  20. Not when the Libs do it Fran 😉 Regardless of the politics it just makes sense to increase the limit sufficiently to build in a buffer. It’s just really poor planning to have to ask for an increase in facility limit on a regular basis. Do it less often and do it properly.

    From a political perspective both the Reserve Bank top-up and the large increase in borrowing limit early while the focus can be shifted to the previous government is just real smart politics. The new government has a 12 month window to pull these types of moves off without losing political skin.

  21. [Well then both Labor and the Libs have insulted the Chinese then.]

    That would follow the course of logical thought… but this is poll bludger where everything Labor touches is gold, but anything the Coalition does or tries to do must be a stuff up.

    Banning Huwae(or however it’s spelt) by the Coalition is a good thing because clearly they have listened to advice by ASIO (who have secret squirrel stuff clearly on them)

  22. Confessions re growing your own Ginger
    easy to do in the hot weather
    I’ve grown it as an ornamental plant …with wonderfull perfumed flowers…loves the hot weather and lots of water

    This item is from a splendid blog called “The Drum” organised by the Melb Botanical Garden and with many subjects and writers on a host of topics
    The new director of the gardens is a live wire and uses the blog too
    I found that the current items list Ginger growing


  23. Huawei is an arm of the Chinese intelligence service disguised as a telecoms company. Any western country that gives them access to its communications infrastructure is mad. Turnbull is obviously one of the many politicians in their pay, but fortunately there are enough people on both sides of politics who understand security to ensure that the right policy is adhered to.

  24. Labor and it’s supporters problems is over reach. You figure because Labor was a failure the coalition will be as well.

    In the first 2 weeks of the Coalition you decided the Coalition couldn’t stop the boats.. yet the boats are stopping.. soon you will be quiet on this issue or try and credit Labor for something they couldn’t do in their entire 6 years in power.

    Then you over reached on the Carbon Tax saying how you guys were going to take a heroic stand against the Coalition mandate and block it… now the nervous nellies in Labor look to be caving quicker than you can say No Csrbon Tax under a Government I lead.

    Next up we have the over reach on the Coalition putting up the debt ceiling to $500 Billion and then claiming they are going to USE debt up to $500 Billion. NSW budget has already swung back into surplus due to the housing price rises and while mining is still not running at 100% the low aussie dollar would have significantly improved tax receipts. We may yet see a budget surplus for the 2014-15 financial year.

    Labor over reach is really going to hurt them… you are going to talk the coalition down and when the coalition proves you wrong you will look like fools.

  25. Mod Lib

    Posted Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 10:46 pm | Permalink


    $8.8 billion borrowed to give to the RBA

    Providing financial security to the RBA- good move.
    The RBA never needed the financial security, never asked for the money. Hockey has Australia paying hundreds of millions in interest to give the RBA money they did not need

    Debt ceiling raised by 33% to $500 billion

    Just a measure to cover the debt the ALP has already racked up with a safety buffer
    Its now the Liberal Government debt. Spin it anyway that makes you feel better. Hockey has failed. If there is a problem with the budget he ciuld do a mini-budget but he is very happy to keep operating with the former Labor Govt budget. So much ready from day much for budget emergency lie.

  26. Isn’t it great to see that the Labor Policy implemented just prior to the election is working and the boats are slowing. All Abbott has done is continue the great work done in those weeks prior to the election by the Labor Govt.
    None of the policies Abbott was ranting about implementing have not be put in place.

    We still the Liberal rusted-ons rabbiting on about a mandate. Abbott does not believe in mandates and has publicly said the same. Its only desperate supporters who have cannot accept that even their Leader does not support mandates.
    Or when he made the statement was that just another of his lies?

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