Essential Research continues its regular Tuesday appearance, with Morgan having moved to fortnightly. Newspoll, one suspects, has been holding off for resolution of the Labor leadership. The latest Essential Research result records only the most negligible change on last week, with the Greens up a point to 10% and the balance subsumed by rounding: the Coalition, Labor and others are respectively unchanged at 43%, 35% and 12%, with the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 52-48, compared with an election result of roughly 53.5-46.5.
In other findings, 71% of respondents considered the current $195,000 salary for backbenchers too high, against 27% for about right and just 2% for too low; 48% considered George Brandis unfit to review politicians’ entitlements given his recent form, against 26% who think otherwise and 27% who don’t know. Respondents were also asked whether politicians should or shouldn’t be reimbursed for various expenses.
Other questions asked whether respondents considered corruption a problem in various sectors, with government and the media coming off worst. Australian politicians were nonetheless considered less corrupt than those of the US and the UK (though not New Zealand), and especially those of Indonesia and China. A question on lobbying found general support for more regulation and disclosure.
On the question of best party to handle another global financial crisis, the Liberals were favoured over Labor 38% to 29% with 23% for no difference.
William
A question if I may, ‘What was Essential’s last 2PP poll before the election?’
I think we only need to look at where Labor has the least political capital to figure out where it has the most to gain. As a perennial flip flopper, finally choosing to stand by something is the most pragmatic option :P.
From previous thread
MTBW
It was St Peter Pheils in Newcastle
Actually St Pius X, Adamstown.
This sums it up:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/hidden-horrors-in-halls-of-learning-20120901-25738.html
Though they may take a hit in the short term.
OC
Interesting! And they wonder why most of us are not attending Mass.
:Repost:
poroti
[At least it made speeding tickets virtually impossible.]
Me, Gael and mad NZ’er Nigel trashing Europe seems a long while ago.
The RO-RO’s are probably still trying to clean up.
BW I think it was 53/47.
Yep 53/47 with primaries of 35/44/10/11
CTar1
RO-RO’s ? It means Roll On Roll Off ships to me.
Aussie dollar on a high as rate cut hopes fade
The Australian dollar hits four-month high following signs the RBA is likely to keep cash rate on hold for a while
http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/currencies/dollar-hits-fourmonth-high-as-rate-cut-hopes-fade-20131015-2vkhm.html
poroti
Yes. They are a feature.
Worrying about the Liberal side of the equation is sweating the small stuff.
Having been away from usual info sources most of the day, I have picked up three items:
a. Greg Hunt thinks that Direct Action is a market-based system.
b. Abbott is trying to preach repentance to Labor (having shown Asia how to do it for himself).
c. Louise Pratt said on Capital Hill that Labor will only help to get rid of the “Carbon Tax” if a carbon pricing scheme is substituted.
(a) and (c) seem to point to the way that LNP will argue, with a little bit of moral suasion from (b) thrown in.
Kinky
[And a sociopath is a psychopath pretty much]
And both are now known as Antisocial Personality Disorder now.
CTar1
Ah . So do I take it your chariot bled all over the ferries when crossing the seas ?
Labor are making an awful mistake with carbon pricing in my view.
They’re going to get themselves in another of their usual messy jams.
Abbott wants to repeal the carbon tax?
So let him.
The fact that the carbon tax effectively ceases to operate on 1/7/14 should not be opposed by Labor.
Labor MUST make it clear that they support, like Turnbull who previously made an agreement with Rudd on an ETS, a market based mechanism to price carbon.
Is it too much to ask for any Labor MP to quote Abbott in his book Battlelines whenever they appear in old media that Abbott in fact supported the carbon tax rather than an emissions trading scheme?
I’m starting to worry, Labor are nearly as big a losers as the Greens.
[A question if I may, ‘What was Essential’s last 2PP poll before the election?’]
Here is my table of the polls between the return from Elba and Waterloo.
The last polls (date) as I recorded them (LNP TPP %):
Essential 0905 52
Galaxy 0905 53
Reachtel 0906 53
Morgan SMS 0906 53.5
Lonergan 0906 50.8
Nielsen 0906 54
Newspoll 0906 54
Morgan multi 0906 54.5
The Liberals could argue ridiculous things and pretend to be friends with everyone while in opposition. They didn’t have to take any real action and so got away with it. Labor are under no obligation to help them get away with it while they’re in government.
Final result will be very close to 53.5%
(although we are STILL WAITING for the AEC to be kind enough to provide the national TPP)
17
Bring on St Helena!
[Here is my table of the polls between the return from Elba and Waterloo.
]
Which among other things nicely illustrates how very idiosyncratic Essential Research was during its journey to an effectively accurate final result.
Distinguish between the carbon tax and the market based mechanism of the ETS or face another appalling situation of getting your butt kicked by Abbott and old media.
Old media constantly refer to carbon pricing and the ETS element of carbon pricing – as the carbon tax.
Why?
Because it suits there political purposes as voters do NOT like the word tax.
FFS – show a bit of fight!
The repeal legislation isn’t going to dance around niceties about fixed price vs ETS. It has to remove the whole lot.
Yes, the Senate technically can amend the shit out of it until it is actually an entirely different bill, pass that, and have the lower house say ‘nope’. Perhaps there’s political mileage for the ALP in there somewhere (“we amended the legislation to remove the carbon tax and bring forward the ETS as we promised to do during the election and the LNP refused to consider it”) but …
If the ALP are going to make a stand on the carbon price they need to do it clearly, unambiguously. No spin. No semantics. No ‘games’ in parliament. If people understand the difference between a ‘carbon tax’ and the ETS that is already legislated, fine, and if Abbott was willing to consider bringing the ETS forward a year, the ALP will jump on that. Abbott is not going to do that.
You’re right that the ALP need to get their strategy right. They need to have the messaging right. Simple enough to make the point that needs to be made – carbon pricing is the absolute best way to tackle carbon pollution – without getting caught up in the quibbling over names.
The ‘carbon tax’ is not something people can be scared of now, they’ve been living under it for over a year now. Maybe people don’t like it, but they can’t be scared of it anymore.
That’s a big political difference. Arguing for something that maybe people don’t really like, but that we need to do is politically possible. Arguing for something unknown that people can be misled into being scared of is nigh impossible.
The case the ALP needs to make is now quite a different one.
[Jonathan Green @GreenJ 10m
self fulfilling politics: create the case against a tax through hysteria and misinformation, reap the benefit of ending the tax. neat.]
[Psephos@2104
Vietnam has been crawling crabwise to the west for some time now. Don’t forget their most recent war was with China, not with the US. I hope they are contemplating “doing a Burma” – a limited domestic liberalisation in order to improve relations with the west and attract investment so as the escape China’s clutches. If they do will take their satellites the Lao PDR with them.]
One of Ho Chi Minh’s sayings went wtte – Better to be at a western powers feet for several generations then eat chinese shit for eternity.
Think Paul Ham might have quoted it in his book, Vietnam – the Australian War.
No love lost been VN and China.
Saigon, ie HCM City has been pretty well back to its previous capitalistic and entrepreneural ways for years apparently even though ruled from the North.
Jackol
It’s not that complicated.
If Abbott wants to get rid of the carbon price element of carbon pricing – then let him!
Don’t be an intelligent moron, they’re the worst kind 😯
Centre –
The day that Abbott brings legislation to parliament to do this, the ALP can be very magnanimous in passing their own policy.
Abbott is not going to do that. So ‘letting’ him do something that he isn’t going to do isn’t helpful.
dave
[No love lost been VN and China.]
I remember reading a book by MacFarlane about the Vietnam War. He later met up with his Vietnamese counterpart who asked him why the Americans thought the Vietnamese were so keen on the Chinese when they had always been enemies.
Grrrr @ 27
Should read:
If Abbott wants to get rid of the carbon “tax” element of carbon pricing – then let him!
Yup
ASPD exquisite qualification for politix
“@HkarterKarter: Peter Reith declares the new Opposition will be the most NEGATIVE in history! Panel rocking with laughter!#TheDrum”
[Which among other things nicely illustrates how very idiosyncratic Essential Research was during its journey to an effectively accurate final result.]
Maybe Essential were right and the others wrong. We’ve no way of knowing.
[Final result will be very close to 53.5%]
and they’ve lost 2% in 5 minutes without an opposition
Jackol @ 28
Who gives a rats what Abbott does?
If Abbott wants to get rid of the carbon tax element of carbon pricing – you let him, otherwise you tell him to get nicked!
You say the most effective method of pricing carbon is with an ETS.
Given that the policy converts to an ETS – Labor don’t oppose that part of the policy.
It’s easy – really!
“@jonathanvswan: Another reader-generated politicians’ expenses story coming tomorrow. We should break it online around lunchtime.”
eccch
Voldemort alert
Bloomberg business news calls carbon pricing just that – and points out that the “emergency” legislation wouldn’t be effective until 30/6 next year and companies would have to keep filling the government’s coffers until then:
[Abbott Publishes Draft Legislation to Abolish Carbon Pricing
Abbott told reporters today that companies would have to pay their carbon price liabilities until the end of this financial year and that the repeal wouldn’t be retrospective.]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-15/abbott-publishes-draft-legislation-to-abolish-carbon-pricing.html
[Saigon, ie HCM City has been pretty well back to its previous capitalistic and entrepreneural ways for years apparently even though ruled from the North.]
But the crunch for the Vietnamese Politburo is whether they are willing to risk their domestic power and privilege for the sake of an alliance with the west. They have seen the Burmese generals’ cautious liberalisation bringing a flood of money into the country, without the generals actually giving up power (yet). But their fear is that once they start to liberalise they won’t be able to stop.
Noticing how the Daily Telegraph seems to have “got religion” with Global Warming, running several illustrated articles and editorials on the subject in the past few days (they even had one today with cute little drawings of fishies from the Finding Nemo movie, showing how ocean currents had changed and fish habitats had altered), I’m making a prediction that abbott will do a deal with Labor to
(a) get rid of the “Tex” part of the tax by June 30, 2014 (which was Labor policy anyway, under Rudd);
(b) Merge “direct Action” with the ETS into one big policy – each side giving a little ground;
(c) try to claim it was all his idea.
His reluctance to “remember” whether any of the Asian leaders had chipped him about cancelling the CT/ETS, the fact that no matter what he says, if he doesn’t get it through this financial year, then the next available financial year will be 2014-2015 for repeal after July 2015 (when the CT segment will be finished anyway), his lust for tax revenue, and his general sneakiness lead me to conclude the “Carbon Tax” will be repealed only in the strictest sense and definition of the words “Carbon Tax”.
Diogenes
I recommend the book “Vietnam : The 10,000 Day War” .Starting from WWII It will make you cry at the utter fuack up and needlessness of it. Ho Chi Minh himself told OSS agents during WWII that communism was unsuited to the Vietnamese because they were a nation of traders. At a post war Independence parade the US diplomats were given the pride of honour seating much to the chagrin of the French and Brit reps who were given second class positions. The constitution nicked lock stock and barrel lots of the US constitution.
From there the US decided to back the French push to reassert their colonial glory and the resulting inevitable train of events is a real tragedy.
I haven’t seen much comment here about the Motorcycle Gang crackdown going on around the country at the moment.
This is obviously classic LNP political territory, but in the context of the Gold Coast incident, the problems in Western Sydney, the issues with the Vic Police being infiltrated, plus previous bad behaviour like the killing in the Sydney Airport terminal a few years ago, I’d say the coordinated police war on bikies may well be quite politically popular. As well as the fact that it’s probably a good idea to reinforce the idea that the gangs really can’t continue doing what they like with impunity – the community won’t tolerate it. The bikies seem to like the idea of going to war with the police, but they’re actually going to war with the police and the community, and that’s a war they will lose.
In terms of timing it kind of does seem like the LNP states were just holding off doing anything until the Abbott government was elected … but that might just be me being cynical.
[Mr Denmore @MrDenmore 2m
‘Repent girl! You’re not possessed by global warming. It’s just a head cold.’ ‘The Exercist’ sets us right. pic.twitter.com/t4insIFQre ]
This worth repeating:
[Is it too much to ask for any Labor MP to quote Abbott in his book Battlelines whenever they appear in old media that Abbott in fact supported the carbon tax rather than an emissions trading scheme?]
FFS – show a bit of fight!
poroti
[So do I take it your chariot bled all over the ferries when crossing the seas ]
It was a very nice sky blue one with a white roof, provided by Gael’s uncle. Way better than the Transit we’d bought.
The stains on the Ro_Ro’s decks where mostly of Nige and my making.
Centre –
I’ve already agreed with this. I don’t know why you’re being so aggro about it.
My point is that politically Abbott (and all the frontbench ever asked about it) have ruled out ‘just’ going to an ETS in order to ‘scrap the carbon tax’. The LNP leadership decried this as sophistry, and that to repeal the carbon tax they needed to repeal all of it, including the ETS.
If they back down and accept the ETS no one will be happier than I. However, it has been such a signature policy of Abbott’s that I don’t see it as being possible for him to go down this road, although given the amount of “policy shifting” he’s been doing of late on other things perhaps I’m wrong.
Bushfire Bill
Yep, my guess to. He will moan and tone until next year, then find a compromise that saves face.
Heard the first report that Turnbull will likely accept the wisdom of FTTP as well today.
They just need to tweak these to look Liberal.
Been reading the Carbon Tax Repeal Bills
http://www.environment.gov.au/carbon-tax-repeal/consultation.html
Key points are
– everything going from 1July 2014, all liabilities must be paid for the 2 years operation till then, so a big FU to Clive Palmer
– National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Register (NGERS) which predates the Clean Energy Act and basically enables counting of pollution remains
– Carbon Farming Act remains
– ‘Australian Carbon Credits’ replace all other credits including international ones
So some pointers to what may be in Direct Action Fig Leaf, but nothing of any substance.
Reading the vandalistic dismemberment of good policy made me think what a shrivelled people we have become.
Bloomberg also reports that there is a renewed push in New Jersey to establish a carbon market, one year after Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on the state.
[New Jersey Reconsiders Carbon Trading a Year After Sandy
In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, which blew ashore last Oct. 29, New Jersey residents have warmed up to the threat that climate change poses to their beach-loving state and want politicians to address it more boldly.
That’s one reason state lawmakers are holding a hearing today about rejoining Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Inc.’s carbon-trading program, according to Upendra Chivukula, the Democratic chairman of the State Assembly’s Telecommunications and Utilities Committee. His panel is evaluating a bill that would require the state to return to the system that New Jersey helped create in 2005.]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-09/new-jersey-reconsiders-carbon-trading-a-year-after-sandy.html
No mention of ‘direct action’ here! It would be ironic also if China insisted on carbon trading in Australia as a condition for signing a FTA.
Thanks for various responses to my question.