Developments of various kinds in the field of vote-counting:
• Labor’s month-long leadership election campaign is finally drawing to a close, with caucus having determined its 50% share of the total vote yesterday and around 25,000 rank-and-file ballots to be counted on Sunday. Reports suggest that Bill Shorten has won at least 50 out of the 86 votes in the party room, receiving the undivided support of a Right which had been polarised during the Gillard-Rudd stand-off. By contrast, David Crowe of The Australian reports that Left members including Warren Snowdon, Brendan O’Connor, Kate Lundy, Laurie Ferguson, Maria Vamvakinou, Julie Owens and newly elected Bendigo MP Lisa Chesters have failed to fall in behind Albanese. Tea-leaf reading from party sources quoted around the place suggests Bill Shorten will do best if a large number of votes are received from his relatively strong states of Victoria and Western Australia, with most other states (together with the ACT, which punches above its weight in terms of ALP membership) considered strongholds for Albanese.
• ReachTEL published a poll yesterday of 891 respondents in New South Wales and Victoria showing Anthony Albanese favoured over Shorten by 60.9-39.1 in New South Wales and 54.0-46.0 in Victoria. Each had slight leads over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister in Victoria and slight deficits in New South Wales. Results on voting intention confirmed the general impression from the limited national polling in finding no honeymoon bounce for the new government.
• Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn has ordered a recount of above-the-line votes for the Western Australian Senate, which will change the result of two Senate seats if a 14-vote gap between the Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians parties is reversed. Also under review are votes declared informal the first time around, which is always a grey area. Tireless anonymous blogger TruthSeeker has performed good work in identifying count peculiarities potentially significant enough to turn the result, including a popular favourite known as the “Waggrakine discrepancy”.
• The Fairfax recount limps with the Clive Palmer camp apparently challenging any vote that doesn’t go its way, thereby requiring it to be sent for determination by the state electoral officer in Brisbane. AAP reports the result “won’t be known for at least another week”.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that ReachTEL has let rip with its first post-election poll of national voting intention, and it continues an unbroken run of such polling in plotting a position for the Coalition south of what it achieved at the election, however slightly. Coming off a large-even-for-ReachTEL sample of 3600, it shows the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 52.1-47.9, compared with roughly 53.5-46.5 at the election, from primary votes of 45.4% for the Coalition (45.6% at the election), 35.3% for Labor (33.4%) and 8.6% for the Greens (unchanged). Tony Abbott’s performance is rated good by 40.5% and poor by 40.2%.
Hmmm…I wonder if Abbott claimed the wedding presents as an expense? It might be worthwhile inviting Liberal MPs to one’s wedding, if that’s the case…
So, if you have some community meetings, do a media interview and raise some money for charity – that’s claimable?
CC, if for a particular activity it is hard to disentangle private and official business then the politician in question should be cautious.
It’s similar to a conflict of interest. One deliberately removes themselves from such a situation because while their own conscience might be clear, 3rd party observers can’t distinguish. Either that or the person in question should put in some effort so that observers are not faced with ambiguity.
Practical considerations of maintaining system integrity may overcome the abstract.
However, zoom has said for weddings it’s a question of state vs private. Whether they are friends or not is irrelevant.
Crank
No that comes under doing your job. You are not at a State funeral
CC – ultimately the people who will judge whether Abbott (and Joyce and Brandis and Morrison and Bishop and …) are the voting public, not Poll Bludgers, not the Finance Department.
You can spin as many “shades of grey” as you like, but it’s not us that need to be convinced one way or the other.
Crank
What is crystal clear from all your questions is reform of expenses has to come.
Its just a matter of how long it takes
She wanted to see Polar Bears, so sad – well the good news is there are lots of them and they are thriving.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/shattering-conclusion-to-a-voyage-of-peaceful-protest-20131004-2uzpu.html
Insofar as we’re internet forum riff raff and not the voting public ;).
Crank is only putting forward all these suggestions so that he can trap someone. As zoomster says, to anyone in public life used to working out what is official and what is not, it’s not that hard.
I noticed that the boat arrivals in the last week are down to just one. Even though the battle isn’t over yet, the tide seems to be turning under a coalition government. Is anyone else impressed with this achievement, noting:
1. Prime Minister Tony Abbott, when LOTO, was daily mocked here for 3 years for professing to want to “stop the boats”.
2. A couple of months back it became Labor policy as well to stop the boats and the applause was loud here on PB for PM Kevin Rudd at the time for his master strokes of policy and the necessity to “stop the boats”.
3. He didn’t stop the boats; Abbott looks like doing this so are Labor supporters here applauding?
It’ll be interesting to see what policies Albo and Shorten now have; will they also say stop the boats (and well done PM Abbott) or will they be like Rudd Mark 1 and say restart the boats. What policies do rusted-on Laborites here support and do they influence which Labor leader they prefer, or as usual with Modern Labor, is it a case of: thy middle name is hypocrisy, eg The Prime Minister is stopping the boats – how cruel!
lizzie, for internet forum riff raff, being trapped is not a big deal. We’ll learn something and next time someone asks all these questions we’ll be experts!
CC
[So, if you have some community meetings, do a media interview and raise some money for charity – that’s claimable?]
Like a lot of things to do with rules (and there’s a lot of lawyers in parliaments, so they understand this) it’s to do with intent.
Did you arrange the community meetings BECAUSE of the event, or were they meetings you had planned to do anyway, but the event just gave you another reason to be there?
If you’ve just arranged the community events as a figleaf so you can claim expenses to attend the event, I’d say ‘no’.
If you had intended to meet with members of the community for some time, and was able to combine that with an event, then that would be OK (but again, you would have to be careful to separate expenses occured in your private capacity from those in your public one. It’s not hard, thousands of local councillors do this every day of the week, without support staff to fill out the forms for them).
If you’re raising money for charity, you’re doing that as an individual, so it’s private. If you’re a patron or something of that charity, as a result of your work as an MP, then that might be a different case, because you have an official capacity.
I have no idea what the media interviews have to do with it. I doubt that there’s much justification in attending an event just to do a media interview.
DisplayN
I meant ‘trapped’ in the sense of Mehmehmehmehmeh. They’re only looking for gotchas.
zoom
I suspect Abbott is the hidden context of that question :P.
DisplayName –
However else one might characterize the Poll Bludger denizens, I think it has been well and truly demonstrated that we don’t particularly reflect what the general voting public thinks…
Mick
[I noticed that the boat arrivals in the last week are down to just one.]
Which suggests Labor’s policies are working as intended.
Jackol, that just means we need to work harder at getting people on PB :).
Z
[Which suggests Labor’s policies are working as intended.]
Rubbish, but that aside, you must be delighted therefore with the apparent success in “stopping the boats”
…I will say, though, that travel to do a media interview is sometimes allowable. For example, if I am a Minister (or Shadow Minister) and I’m required to discuss my policy positions in the TV studio, that’s allowable – it’s clearly part of my duties.
Going somewhere and doing a media interview just because you’re there is different.
Mick, just as a flood of boats in the first couple of weeks does not mean Abbott has failed, a dearth of boats in the next couple of weeks does not mean he has succeeded.
You need to be patient before gloating.
No, I’m not happy either way :P.
Mick77 @1310
I’m happy to give credit whee it is due and the Rudd-PNG manoeuvre was a good one (if late and acknowledging his earlier massive mistake) – it is now being reinforced by a resolute Coalition effectively engaging with the Indonesian Authorities.
Why is Abbott’s Mortgage being raised by News Ltd now? It has been common knowledge for years.
I remember I caller being cut off on an ABC talk show because the mortgage story is a rumour. Well its not and six years later Abbott confirms it.
Mick77
There have been reports which gave the dates when the boats slowed and they were as a result of Rudd’s PNG decision. We all knew that Morrison would try to claim the success as a Coalition one.
CC
I think you mean obsequious.
A boat arrived at Cocos Island last night, I guess it does not count in the count.
DisplayName @1320 – why aren’t you happy? – Australia still has a world leading refugee intake program without people risking drowning at sea.
Must be true its in the GG.
[SRI Lanka’s once vibrant people-smuggling pipeline, which has long lain dormant, is again showing signs of life, with an asylum boat appearing off the coast of the Cocos Islands yesterday.]
– See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/sri-lankans-reach-cocos-islands/story-fn9hm1gu-1226737057349#sthash.rHr0aXks.dpuf
DN
[You need to be patient before gloating.]
Agree and I’m not gloating but am pleased at the direction. Obviously what I’m trying to find out is whether rusted-on Laborites have an opinion (since Labor went to the polls with the aim of stopping the boats) or must they wait for thought direction of the new leader and his policies, and then they’ll fall into line, whatever turn it takes: 2 legs good, 4 legs better OR 4 legs good, 2 legs better. If Rudd’s policies on the boats were judged great by most rusted-on Labor PBers, then where is the (grudging if necessary) satidfaction with current trend. I think you’ll find it is a case of: Modern Labor, hypocrisy is thy middle name. And your
[No, I’m not happy either way :P]
is a cop-out DN. Are you pleased with the direction or not, particularly if it continues?
The best outcome would be if pollies (and their supporters) stopped turning refugees into footballs to kick around.
CC –
That seems a fair summary to me.
I’ve said before that the PNG solution was likely to work, and if the LNP simply continue to apply it and reinforce it (and I don’t think anyone can doubt their commitment to doing whatever it takes on this matter), then the boats are likely to stop.
And the LNP will earn the political credit for that, and that’s just life, and the ALP will forever more vow to never change the boat processing regime (and will forever more be attacked by the LNP over it).
CC, we simply push the risks somewhere else, a complete waste of resources that achieves little of real value and is simply a sop to those who don’t want to be inconvenienced by having to confront a problem.
Mick, what cop out? I’m not happy we’re wasting so much energy behaving as we do in the first place. Hence whether or not the boats stop due to our behaviour is irrelevant and “I’m not happy either way”.
Mind not stepping in my sticky pool of aortic haemoglobin? Thanks.
Jackol @ 1330
I can only salute the honesty of your post and agree also with the irony expressed at the end.
The program that was just reduced by 35%?
Now that part was just bastardry and penny pinching on the LNP’s part.
At least the ALP can claim something there and for the future.
I saw a BBC report into the latest boat sinking in the Mediterranean and the words were migrants.
A much better word than AS.
It might be best if we stop using the AS word and just call them what they are migrants.
DN
[aortic haemoglobin ..]
Is that the same as a bet each-way?
If you don’t know Mick, neither do I. When you work it out, let me know and I’ll think about it.
MEx beemer
Since when has the BBC been the authority on terminology. Don’t remember what Rudd and Carr called them but it was conveniently applauded here by rusted-on Laborites, and it wasn’t “migrants”.
Mick
The AS debate has been overblown into an emotive debate for years.
The BBC’s use of the word Migrant made perfect sense as that is what they on the boat were trying to do.
By treating all would be migrants to the same process will be fairer and would ensure that all who which to come to the best country in the world knew were they stood and understood the way in and the way out.
M77
Stop using my “hypocrisy” line.
“Hypocrisy thy name is Tory” is the correct rendition.
Get it right.
I have already conceded that you guys win the hypocrisy competition hands down.
On the other hand, you guys just don’t understand irony.
Your khaki clad mate here has been been trying to defend Abbottorort all afternoon – and failed. He has been on the back foot for most of the time.
The process adopted has been to first claim that it is not an issue.
Secondly, that everybody does it thereby somehow making rorting okay.
Thirdly, it is “just so complicated” that it is hard to sort our the real from the shonky claims.
Fourthly, none of this rorting has anything to do with first order issues…. blah, blah, blah.
See, if, as Abbott suggests, there is nothing wrong in what he and half the cabinet have claimed for, why then seek to pay it back? And then, why stridently claim it is all kosher?
No wonder the Coalition vote has gone backwards in just four weeks.
If the TPP declines in this alarming way for the conservatives before parliament sits and before Labor actually has voted on who will be leader, just how far and how quickly will the fall be after this?
Tricot
Take a bex (also your line?) and maybe let us know whether you think stopping/reducing no of boats is good or bad. It’s not rocket science which you’re obviously more gifted in.
Check out the visitor I had this morning.
pic.twitter.com/Dk52AMcEio
The only way to stop the boats is a blanket no
Given there is no longer a Budget Emergency, will Abbott keep the refugee intake at 20,000 or will he cut it by over a third?
mexicanbeemer @1342 – and that would be achieved by withdrawing from the broken UN Convention on Refugees. Once we have withdrawn from that then the bleeding hearts (useful idiots) in the legal fraternity will have much of their legal avenues for rorting the system cutoff – and so the honey pot of soft refugee tribunal decisions will be washed away.
CC @ 1288
Yes. John Howard was an official guest.
Richie – ” How do you see todays play, Bill?”
Bill – ” Its been a bit of a mixed bag, Ritchie, the TROLLS were scoring freely for a while with crank at the crease, tisme was a disappointment only lasting for 3 overs before being comprehensively bowled and just as it seemed there would be a fightback, crank lost the plot and lost his wicket to the sustained line and length from the PB’s. To get to stumps the TROLLS have sent in Mick77 as nightwatchman – he floundered due to the sledging from the PB’s and the sustained accuracy of their attack ….. I can’t see him lasting too long at the crease as his skills seem to way below what is required at this level ….. and the PB’s are just relentless with their attack ….
” OK Bill …. how do you see tomorrows play ?”
” Who gives a flying f*ck, Ritchie – Bathurst is on tomorrow and I’ll be watching that …..
7 Holdens in the Top Ten Shoot out.
How’d the Ford get into second?
Drug test!
David Donovan @davrosz 7m
Have it from a good source that Peter Slipper is currently writing an autobiography. Now that could be an interesting read…
lizzie
I wonder if it starts with how he won preselection in Fisher as a National, beating Clive Palmer?
Detailed explanation of TPP
http://craigemersoneconomics.com/media/2013/10/12/column-in-the-weekend-australian-determination-needed-to-seal-the-deals-on-trade