Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research remains the only regularly reporting opinion poll in town, and it continues to show the Coalition with a weaker lead than they scored at the election.

Essential Research is still the only opinion poll operating to its regular schedule, Morgan having sat out last week and Newspoll presumably holding off at least until Labor sorts out its leadership. The latest weekly result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at an unspectacular 52-48, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady on last week), 35% for Labor (down one) and the Greens on 9% (steady). Other questions relate to internet privacy, including a finding that US surveillance programs such as Edward Snowden revealed are opposed by 45% and supported by 24%, and the importance of our various foreign relationships, showing “very important” ratings of 56% for New Zealand, 51% for the United States, 46% for China, 42% for the United Kingdom and 35% for Indonesia.

UPDATE: And now Morgan comes through with its normal multi-mode poll which was skipped last week, carrying the striking headline that Labor leads 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. However, Morgan produces a strikingly different result from preference flows as per the recent election, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. But I find this hard to reconcile with the primary votes: the Coalition is at 42%, 3.5% lower than at the election, Labor at 37%, which is 3.6% higher, and the minor parties only slightly changed at 9% for the Greens, 4.5% for the Palmer United Party and 7.5% for others. Somehow though, two-party preferred comes out as very similar to the election result, which as best as anyone can tell is about 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,828 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  4. Feeney I feel a bit sorry for Speers in that he’s not bad when doing long 1 on 1 interviews but he gets his jocks in a knot if Abbott is criticised.

    Dio We’ve lived with no FTA reception until last few months when satellite went in. FTA is worse tgan oay

  5. Saying “election now!’ is useless and just copies Abbott’s stupidity.

    I’d rather hear
    “when will Parliament return?” or
    “honesty now!”

  8. [I doubt there will ever be a fuel shortage under the Abbott regime.]
    Certainly I doubt that one will ever be truthfully reported under the Abbott regime.

    Turn Back the Reporters!

  12. What sort of religious lunatic thinks that a grovelling public act of ‘contrition’ for making appalling public comments about a foreign country is the same as diplomacy?

    This isn’t some sort of playground game of Barley Charley.

    It is time for Abbott to join the world of real adults, to step out of the chapel, and to step into the real world.

    Abbott needs less Pell if he wants more diplomatic pull.

  14. Speaking of rorts

    This is a Telstra rort.

    For the past couple of months my internet connection has been unworthy to say the least.

    My ISP finally conceded there was a problem, but cautioned that I’d be up for $120 for a Telstra callout, plus an extra $30 per hour to rectify the fault.

    I called BS on that one.

    So, finally my ISP sent out a technician. After testing the one point in the house, and the line from the house to Telstra’s responsibilities, the conclusion was it was a Telstra fault.

    Okay.

    My ISP notified Telstra of the fault (after three weeks).

    Telstra came, found the problem – yes it was their fault. Had a very jolly phone call from the Telstra tech. Yep, they’d found the fault, theirs, water in the pit, new connectors needed and a bit of soldering to do at the exchange.

    Great.

    Except, the problem’s not fixed.

    Just had a call from my ISP. They reckon it’s a Telstra fault, but their hands are tied (they don’t want to pay the $120 call-out fee) and I am now responsible for the fee, if my line from the house is the problem (don’t forget they already tested this and it wasn’t).

    Either way I’m going to get screwed.

    That’s a bigger rort.

  15. Tony has made another friend

    [Although Australian journalists were not invited into the room to witness the arrival of the leaders – pictures only – a government source from the official APEC delegation of another country confirmed off the record to journalists that Mr Putin was less than pleased at Mr Abbott’s tardiness and ignored Mr Abbott’s presence when he finally turned up to be seated next to him.

    “There was no engagement, no acknowledgement, an iron curtain,” the official told AAP.

    A photographer in the travelling media said that the two appeared to be deliberately avoiding each other but noticeable was a sardonic grin on Mr Putin’s face.

    Another source in the room said Mr Putin appeared to deliberately turned his back on Mr Abbott when he arrived and sat down, before noticing he had the wrong briefing papers in front of him.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/did-russian-president-vladimir-putin-snub-our-prime-minister-tony-abbott/story-fni0xqrb-1226734836134#sthash.Q9O9VzZP.dpuf

  19. Like Psephos and Dio We also do not get pay TV, including Sly News. We do not miss it. As for entertainment, you can buy an awful lot of movies on DVD, or new TV shows downloaded legally from the internet, for the monthly cost of Foxtel.

    That is exactly why Rupert hated Labor and the NBN, they threatened his monopolistic cash cow.

  20. Abbott was late for Yudiono, forcing the latter to kick his heels. Unforgiveable.

    Abbott has now done it again for the APEC meeting.

    We all know that he is a rude, crude bastard.

    The rest of the world is starting to get the idea as well.

    More grovelling apologies coming up?

  22. [What sort of religious lunatic thinks that a grovelling public act of ‘contrition’ for making appalling public comments about a foreign country is the same as diplomacy?]

    He’s supposed to be representing his country, not the Liberal Party. He’s a bloody disgrace.

  23. leone Posted Tuesday, October 8, 2013 at 6:14 pm @ 63

    Someone mentioned Julia Gillard’s expenses for her stay at Rooty Hill. She paid them herself and that was reported at the time. Whoever is PM has a residence in Sydney, if they choose for whatever reason to stay somewhere else then they have to pay their way.

    IMHO the rules should be different for the Prime Minister (regardless of party). The PM has certain security and administrative needs that other members of the Government and Parliament do not have. I think it makes sense for the PM, except perhaps when on holiday, to have all their travel expenses paid by the Government (tax payer). That includes RAAF VIP jets rather than commercial flights.

    So, I personally think Tony Abbott has been rorting the system with many of his expense claims in the past (e.g. claiming travel expenses when travelling to participate in a sporting activity). However, I think if he undertakes the same activities whilst being Prime Minister he should be able to make use of RAAF aircraft, Comm cars, etc. with the Government picking up the tab. He’s going to need to be accompanied by security (AFP) and staff (in case urgent matters of Government pop up) so it makes sense logistical sense to do it the same way as for official business.

  25. Dio

    Thanks, I haven’t really checked out what is on YouTube.

    I strongly agree with your point about not watching Fox/Sky if it annoys you. For the same reason I almost never read the Murdoch interrnet paper sites. Every click just gives them advertising revenue.

  26. I thought that Abbott’s plan was to wreck the joint if we didn’t give him the job; not that he would wreck the joint if we gave him the job.

  28. citizen Posted Tuesday, October 8, 2013 at 6:22 pm 70

    Long-serving federal Liberal MP Philip Ruddock was also at Mr Slipper’s wedding and says he has decided not to repay the travel entitlements he claimed.

    Mr Ruddock says he was only at the wedding because he was the attorney-general at the time, and Mr Slipper was the then chairman of a legal committee.

    Hmm, I wonder how I would go claiming my taxi fares from my employer if I attended a colleagues wedding?

  30. [ Telstra came, found the problem – yes it was their fault. Had a very jolly phone call from the Telstra tech. Yep, they’d found the fault, theirs, water in the pit, new connectors needed and a bit of soldering to do at the exchange. ]

    I have exactly the same problem. I get Telstra out regularly. Always the same rigamarole about call out costs if it’s found to be your fault, and they always find out it’s their fault.

    Telstra’s copper network is quite literally rotting in the ground. It is held together with solder, replacement patch wire and the prayers of its technicians that it doesn’t rain again anytime soon.

    And this 1950’s technology is what the LNP want to use for their broadband network? Perhaps this explains why they are so in favor of global warming!

  32. Psephos

    ‘ We all know that he is a rude, crude bastard.

    I’d wear being snubbed by the fascist gangster war-criminal Putin as a mark of honour.’

    So would I, but to Abbott Yudiono, Putin, whoever, it is all the same: he arrives late.

  33. “@leighsales: The AFP says it has received a number of complaints from the public re politicians’ entitlements but it is not investigating. No reason why”

  34. [We all know that he is a rude, crude bastard.

    I’d wear being snubbed by the fascist gangster war-criminal Putin as a mark of honour.]

    You aren’t the PM though.

  35. [We all know that he is a rude, crude bastard.]

    Yes Abbott is that!

    I think the sporting bodies should plan to broaden their websites and ultimately bypass Foxtel.

    I’m sure they could make a killing with advertising and fees that would be a lot cheaper than Foxtel.

  36. Abbott’s problem with “The Expenses Scandal” is he went in so hard against Slipper.

    He looks like a hypocrite with double standards … oh wait, sorry we knew that already. 😆

  38. [“It’s become top-heavy in such an ugly way,” she said. “They went corporate instead of being what they should be, which is a national resource, a place which trains people and curates the best programmes, and encourages talent and does great news and journalism.
    “They just became a corporate, executive-run place for idiots.]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10362325/BBC-used-to-be-Ab-Fab-now-its-full-of-executive-idiots-claims-Jennifer-Saunders.html

  40. [Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, October 8, 2013 at 7:12 pm | PERMALINK
    Abbott was late for Yudiono, forcing the latter to kick his heels. Unforgiveable.

    Abbott has now done it again for the APEC meeting.

    We all know that he is a rude, crude bastard.

    The rest of the world is starting to get the idea as well.

    More grovelling apologies coming up?]

    Running true to form. Abbott the Late.

    Abbott was late for Slipper’s wedding (apparently the bride was in tears).

    Abbott was late for an Indigenous debate in parliament (and promptly fell asleep).

    Abbott was late for the Health Minister’s debate with Nicola Roxon during the 2007 election campaign.

    Need we say more.

    He has no sensibilities regarding the importance of other people’s time. All that counts to him is his time. The provenance of a narcissist.

  41. [ “They just became a corporate, executive-run place for idiots.” ]

    And therein lies the nub of the problem with our own ABC, perhaps?

  42. Abbott has now done it again for the APEC meeting.

    I thought his excuse for this was illuminating – wtte “we received a message saying no one was there, and then we received a message saying everyone was there so we rushed to get there” …

    So what if “no one was there”? Did you arrange to meet at a certain time or not? Why not just keep your appointments whether or not “everyone is there”?

    What a galah, and he obviously thinks he can get away with whatever he feels like.

  43. [Peter Slipper ‏@PNSlipper

    I have been a good friend of Tony Abbott even when he didn’t have many. I even delivered him the key vote he needed to become leader!]

  44. [I doubt there will ever be a fuel shortage under the Abbott regime.]

    Poroti ah, love that. I almost think I prefer Mr No to his current persona. There’s something really false about him now that is so hard to watch.

  45. psephos

    “‘ I doubt there will ever be a fuel shortage under the Abbott regime.’

    Can Boerwar really keep up this level of outraged expostulation for three years?”

    That particular bit of outrage was expostulated by someone else.

  46. Abbott’s explanation for being late to the APEC meeting was kind of weird, for a grown-up.

    It was a bit like, ‘Sorry miss, but it was someone else’s fault and, when we found out, I ran like billy-o to do the right thing. Please miss.’

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