Random observations

Scattered thoughts on the Senate, the western Sydney electorate of Fowler, Bob Katter, the informal vote rate, and the fine art of poll aggregation.

Time for a new thread, so here’s some very scattered thoughts that it occurs to me to share at this late hour:

• I had a piece on the Senate result in Crikey yesterday, and have been keeping a low profile on Poll Bludger in part because I’ve been busy fielding inquiries from media outlets eager to hear an election wonk’s take on the whole affair. If you’d like to comment on the progress of late counting in the Senate I’d encourage you to do so on the dedicated thread, or at least re-paste your comments there after leaving them on this one.

• I’d also like to encourage those with particular insights to offer on late counting in close lower house seats to share the love in the relevant comments threads, which can serve as useful clearing houses for information for those of us trying to keep up. Note that these posts can be accessed through links near the top of the sidebar.

• So what the hell happened in Fowler? There was, as we know, a much milder swing against Labor in western Sydney than media hype and certain local opinion polls had primed us for. However, that scarcely explains the thumping 8.8% swing enjoyed by Labor journeyman Chris Hayes. What presumably does explain it is Liberal candidate Andrew Nguyen, chosen by the party with a view to snaring the Vietnamese vote in Cabramatta, who suffered swings approaching 20% in that very area. As to what Vietnamese voters might have known about Nguyen that the Liberal Party did not, I cannot even speculate. However, it won’t be the only question the party has to ask itself about its candidate selection processes in New South Wales, for the second election in a row.

• It wasn’t a very good election for Bob Katter, who failed in his bid to bring new allies to Canberra and had his seemingly impregnable hold on Kennedy cut to the bone. One reason of course was that he was squeezed out by Clive Palmer (with due apologies for the unattractiveness of that image). However, another was very likely a preference deal he cut with Labor which in the event did neither party any good. I would also observe that this is not Katter’s first failed attempt at empire-building. At the 2004 Queensland state election, Katter organised an alliance of independents with a view to activating discontent over sugar industry policy, and the only one to poll a substantial share of the vote had done nearly as well without Katter’s help at the previous election. Even the much-touted successes of Katter’s Australian Party at last year’s Queensland election involved it a) absorbing probably transient protest votes which formed part of the huge swing against Labor, and b) electing two members who could just easily have won their seats as independents. Katter’s constituency would evidently prefer that he stick to being an independent local member, and limit his broader ambitious to bequeathing the family firm to his son.

• As well as witnessing an explosion in the micro-party vote, the election has at the very least seen the rate of informal voting maintain the peak scaled at the 2010 election. Limiting it to ordinary election day votes to ensure we’re comparing apples with apples (pre-poll and postal voters being generally more motivated and hence less prone to informal voting), the informal vote rate has progressed from 4.18% to 5.82% to 5.92%. Presumably the Australian Electoral Commission will be conducting a ballot paper study to let us know how much this is down to proliferating candidate numbers leading to inadvertent mistakes, and how much to disaffection leading to deliberate spoilage of ballot papers.

• If I do say so myself, my BludgerTrack poll aggregate performed rather well. The Coalition’s two-party preferred vote is at 53.15% on current counting, which is likely to edge up towards the projected 53.5% as the remaining votes come in. Better yet, there’s a good chance the state seat projections will prove to have been exactly correct, allowing for the fact that the model did not accommodate non-major party outcomes such as the possible wins for Clive Palmer in Fairfax and Cathy McGowan in Indi. No doubt this is partly down to luck. There was some imprecision on the primary vote, with the Coalition about a point too low and the Greens about a point too high (though the model in fact scaled down the latter from the pollsters’ published results), with the circle being squared by a preference allocation method that proved over-favourable to the Coalition, based as it was on the 2010 election result (although I’m pretty sure it still performed better than a method based on respondent allocation would have done).

Nonetheless, the model was certainly successful enough to confirm the wisdom of its basic premise that the best way to read the campaign horse race is to a) only pay attention to large-scale polling, i.e. national and state-level results, b) adjust pollsters for bias according to their past performance where sufficient observations are available from recent history, c) instead use the pollster’s deviation from the aggregated poll trend where sufficient observations are not available, and d) weight the results of each pollster according to how historically accurate/consistent with the trend they have been. As to the performance of the polls themselves, I’ll have a lot more to say about that when all the votes are in. In the meantime, here’s a broad brush overview from Matthew Knott at Crikey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,937 comments on “Random observations”

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  1. The execrable Bob Woods lost Lowe in the 93 election and was then given Bronwyn Bishop’s seat at the next parliament. He subsequently resigned in a sex/travel rort scandal

    Woods was an oncologist and I was his resident for a short period in the early 80s. His numberplate was ONC. 001 which I always thought referred to the sound he made.

  2. [I gather none of those by elections were engineered to find a seat for a despised MP.]

    No, they were all luck. The only engineered by-election I know of was in Dalley in 1928, when the sitting member Mahoney was paid to make way for Theodore.

  3. It’s not as if Mirabella is someone whose policy vigour they need for the good of the country. If they were really desperate I guess they could offer up some sort of diplomatic posting to a Victorian senator and appoint her to the vacancy. I can’t see any of them wanting to take it though.

  4. Not only that but he cheated on the daughter of one of the lpowerbrokers of the Lib party (he was found a senate seat before his double dealing was found out).

  5. Shorten or Albo? Which school of thought? Caretaker or challenger in 2016?

    Unless this is sorted and stuck with we all know what the conservative press has in store.

  6. [If they were really desperate I guess they could offer up some sort of diplomatic posting to a Victorian senator and appoint her to the vacancy.]

    They could make Scott Ryan Ambassador to the Tea Party. He’d like that.

  7. Rocket Rocket
    You haven’t seen anything yet wait until the new member for Lyne makes his maiden seat.

    More seriously I think Page was an effective politician but probably harmed his career because of his vindictiveness to Menzies.

  8. Sprocket @ 2750: Nice as it would be to see half the Melbourne bar in action, that probably won’t be necessary. The AEC has had a very good win /loss record in litigation.

  9. Mirabella and the coming court action re the will /etc of Prof Howard
    _________________________________________
    It should be remembered that Mirabella’s “luck” in re he “loot ” from the will of the late Prof Howard is being contested in a court action soon…by Howard’s family
    They are all wealthy and will have major legal counsel in the case…the story of which was widely known in Indi

    I had a old friend who lived there until her recent death and she kept me informed over recent years about the many matters which made Mirabella so unpopular in Indi
    …the case of the Old Man and his Missing Wealth was the subject of much local scrutiny and scandal in a conservative rural electoral

  10. Psephos @ 2746: Mr Don Cameron may have been a drip who lost three seats, but he also beat Gough’s star candidate Clem Jones in 1974, and remembering that was one of the things that made me less than surprised when Mr Beattie lost on Saturday.

  11. RR

    I have explained this phenomenon a few times. Firstly, I agree with your premise completely. There have been very few successful doctor politicians. Bob Brown was one of the better ones.

    Firstly, no sane successful doctor would quit medicine for politics so you are getting the dregs of the profession.

    Secondly, medicine is not big on changing opinions just because your party changes its mind. The science/evidence is the science/evidence and it doesn’t change.

    Thirdly, we are taught never to fudge, obfuscate or deceive. All those all key traits of successful politicians.

  12. Confessions – Why not? Rudd had polls of 60-40 at one point (not believable)and the serious commentators talking about 2-3 terms of Labor in office.

    They were all wrong for any number of reasons.

    Nothing is writ it stone.

    If Abbott proves to be a an accident prone leader, which I think he will be, or some catastrophe comes out of left field he can’t cope with, why more than one term?

    The big issue is Labor leadership.

    It will be a case of simple, straight from the shoulder stuff, pumped out all the time.

    Labor does not have to finesse with policy – just attack. As we have seen, all is forgiven at election time.

    Task. Keep is simple and possible.

    I expect unemployment to go up, interest rates to go up, the economy to slow.

    This is all grist for the mill. Attack the weakness of the government and how they have thrown people to the wolves but promise an ‘action plan’ available a few weeks out from the next election.

    That this works we have seen with our very eyes.

  13. South Australia Preference Flow

    Where the Ticket vote ended up

    AlphaCode, Group Name, GroupPref
    A, Socialist Equality Party, GRN, ALP, LP, FFP, XEN
    A, Socialist Equality Party, ALP, LP, FFP, XEN, GRN
    A, Socialist Equality Party, LP, FFP, XEN, GRN, ALP
    B, Family First, FFP, LP, ALP, XEN, GRN
    C, Australian Democrats, GRN, ALP, LP, XEN, FFP
    D, Secular Party of Australia, XEN, GRN, ALP, LP, FFP
    E, Liberal Democrats, FFP, LP, XEN, ALP, GRN
    F, Palmer United Party, GRN, FFP, LP, XEN, ALP
    G, Nick Xenophon Group, XEN, LP, FFP, ALP, GRN
    G, Nick Xenophon Group, XEN, ALP, GRN, FFP, LP
    H, National Party, XEN, FFP, LP, ALP, GRN
    I, , GRN, FFP, XEN, ALP, LP
    J, DLP Democratic Labour, FFP, ALP, XEN, LP, GRN
    K, Rise Up Australia Party, FFP, LP, XEN, ALP, GRN
    L, , GRN, FFP, XEN, ALP, LP
    M, Country Alliance, LP, ALP, FFP, XEN, GRN
    N, Sex Party, GRN, XEN, ALP, LP, FFP
    O, Australian Independents, FFP, GRN, XEN, LP, ALP
    P, Australian Greens, GRN, ALP, FFP, XEN, LP
    Q, Animal Justice Party, FFP, XEN, GRN, ALP, LP
    R, No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics, FFP, LP, GRN, XEN, ALP
    S, Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party, GRN, ALP, FFP, XEN, LP
    T, Drug Law Reform, GRN, ALP, LP, XEN, FFP
    U, One Nation, FFP, LP, XEN, ALP, GRN
    V, Stable Population Party, FFP, GRN, ALP, LP, XEN
    V, Stable Population Party, FFP, ALP, LP, GRN, XEN
    V, Stable Population Party, FFP, LP, GRN, ALP, XEN
    W, Australian Christians, FFP, LP, ALP, XEN, GRN
    X, Shooters and Fishers, FFP, LP, XEN, ALP, GRN
    Y, Katter’s Australian Party, FFP, LP, GRN, ALP, XEN
    Z, Smokers Rights, FFP, LP, XEN, ALP, GRN
    AA, Voluntary Euthanasia Party, GRN, XEN, ALP, LP, FFP
    AB, Australian Labor Party, ALP, GRN, FFP, LP, XEN
    AC, Building Australia Party, FFP, XEN, LP, ALP, GRN
    AD, Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, FFP, XEN, LP, ALP, GRN
    AD, Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, FFP, XEN, ALP, LP, GRN
    AE, Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party, FFP, LP, XEN, ALP, GRN
    AG, Liberal, LP, FFP, XEN, ALP, GRN

  14. Peter Baume, Brendan Nelson, Bob Brown, John Herron, Michael Wooldridge, Peter MacDonald, Andrew McDonald, Mal Washer – maybe I was being a bit harsh, some of these OK.

    Only US one I could think of was Howard Dean, Vermont Governor and candidate for Democrat Presidential Primary for 2004.

  15. [legal@JoshBBornstein: If there’s a legal challenge to @Indigocathy if she wins #indivotes,Pro Bono Bornstein is on standby with 1/2 the Melb legal profession.]

    Bornstein was Peter Slipper’s lawyer until they fell out at a critical juncture. He was suing Slipper for unpaid fees at some stage.

  16. Contra Diogenes’s usual cynicism, I think most of these went into politics out of high ideals. Whether they were the “dregs of the profession,” I doubt. I had some dealings with Peter Baume and he certainly wasn’t. The dregs of the profession were John Whiting and the other GPS crazies who tried to destroy Medibank.

  17. Tricot:

    For nearly 4 years now Labor and its supporters have been underestimating Tony Abbott.

    It’s time to stop assuming that any minute now he will stuff up and get the boot.

  18. [Dr Michael Wooldridge.. not too bad right? Though hardly a walking advertisement for good health.]

    Dr Wooldridge famously declared “menstruation is not a disease” during the GST debate…

  19. [It’s time to stop assuming that any minute now he will stuff up and get the boot.]

    No-one assumes that. But he will stuff up sooner or later. And Hockey is one great big continuous stuff up. If he lasts a year I’ll be surprised.

  20. That this works we have seen with our very eyes.

    While the ALP shouldn’t under or over-estimate Tony Abbott, it’s also important not to draw too many general conclusions about what just happened.

    A large part of Tony Abbott and the LNP’s ascension was the self-destruction of the ALP over the last 6 years.

    What ‘worked’ for Abbott won’t work for the ALP next time around if the LNP doesn’t suffer from similar dysfunction – that’s not something to count on.

  21. [the case of the Old Man and his Missing Wealth was the subject of much local scrutiny and scandal in a conservative rural electoral]
    In which case you ponder why the election result is so close.

  22. [And Hockey is one great big continuous stuff up. If he lasts a year I’ll be surprised.]

    Hockey is MIA already. He’s the incoming Treasurer, yet hasn’t been sighted since election night.

  23. The contest for the last seat who supported Xenophon ahead of the Liberals

    AlphaCode, Group Name, GroupPref
    A, Socialist Equality Party, LP, XEN
    A, Socialist Equality Party, LP, XEN
    A, Socialist Equality Party, LP, XEN
    B, Family First, LP, XEN
    C, Australian Democrats, LP, XEN
    D, Secular Party of Australia, XEN, LP
    E, Liberal Democrats, LP, XEN
    F, Palmer United Party, LP, XEN
    G, Nick Xenophon Group, XEN, LP
    G, Nick Xenophon Group, XEN, LP
    H, National Party, XEN, LP
    I, , XEN, LP
    J, DLP Democratic Labour, XEN, LP
    K, Rise Up Australia Party, LP, XEN
    L, , XEN, LP
    M, Country Alliance, LP, XEN
    N, Sex Party, XEN, LP
    O, Australian Independents, XEN, LP
    P, Australian Greens, XEN, LP
    Q, Animal Justice Party, XEN, LP
    R, No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics, LP, XEN
    S, Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party, XEN, LP
    T, Drug Law Reform, LP, XEN
    U, One Nation, LP, XEN
    V, Stable Population Party, LP, XEN
    V, Stable Population Party, LP, XEN
    V, Stable Population Party, LP, XEN
    W, Australian Christians, LP, XEN
    X, Shooters and Fishers, LP, XEN
    Y, Katter’s Australian Party, LP, XEN
    Z, Smokers Rights, LP, XEN
    AA, Voluntary Euthanasia Party, XEN, LP
    AB, Australian Labor Party, LP, XEN
    AC, Building Australia Party, XEN, LP
    AD, Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, XEN, LP
    AD, Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, XEN, LP
    AE, Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party, LP, XEN
    AG, Liberal, LP, XEN

  24. Psephos: to the extent that I know any of the parliaments off by heart (probably only the inaugural Senate, to be honest, and then the last few), your site has a great deal to do with it.

    mari: Page did eventually (and posthumously) lose Cowper to a Labor candidate in 1961.

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