Random observations

Scattered thoughts on the Senate, the western Sydney electorate of Fowler, Bob Katter, the informal vote rate, and the fine art of poll aggregation.

Time for a new thread, so here’s some very scattered thoughts that it occurs to me to share at this late hour:

• I had a piece on the Senate result in Crikey yesterday, and have been keeping a low profile on Poll Bludger in part because I’ve been busy fielding inquiries from media outlets eager to hear an election wonk’s take on the whole affair. If you’d like to comment on the progress of late counting in the Senate I’d encourage you to do so on the dedicated thread, or at least re-paste your comments there after leaving them on this one.

• I’d also like to encourage those with particular insights to offer on late counting in close lower house seats to share the love in the relevant comments threads, which can serve as useful clearing houses for information for those of us trying to keep up. Note that these posts can be accessed through links near the top of the sidebar.

• So what the hell happened in Fowler? There was, as we know, a much milder swing against Labor in western Sydney than media hype and certain local opinion polls had primed us for. However, that scarcely explains the thumping 8.8% swing enjoyed by Labor journeyman Chris Hayes. What presumably does explain it is Liberal candidate Andrew Nguyen, chosen by the party with a view to snaring the Vietnamese vote in Cabramatta, who suffered swings approaching 20% in that very area. As to what Vietnamese voters might have known about Nguyen that the Liberal Party did not, I cannot even speculate. However, it won’t be the only question the party has to ask itself about its candidate selection processes in New South Wales, for the second election in a row.

• It wasn’t a very good election for Bob Katter, who failed in his bid to bring new allies to Canberra and had his seemingly impregnable hold on Kennedy cut to the bone. One reason of course was that he was squeezed out by Clive Palmer (with due apologies for the unattractiveness of that image). However, another was very likely a preference deal he cut with Labor which in the event did neither party any good. I would also observe that this is not Katter’s first failed attempt at empire-building. At the 2004 Queensland state election, Katter organised an alliance of independents with a view to activating discontent over sugar industry policy, and the only one to poll a substantial share of the vote had done nearly as well without Katter’s help at the previous election. Even the much-touted successes of Katter’s Australian Party at last year’s Queensland election involved it a) absorbing probably transient protest votes which formed part of the huge swing against Labor, and b) electing two members who could just easily have won their seats as independents. Katter’s constituency would evidently prefer that he stick to being an independent local member, and limit his broader ambitious to bequeathing the family firm to his son.

• As well as witnessing an explosion in the micro-party vote, the election has at the very least seen the rate of informal voting maintain the peak scaled at the 2010 election. Limiting it to ordinary election day votes to ensure we’re comparing apples with apples (pre-poll and postal voters being generally more motivated and hence less prone to informal voting), the informal vote rate has progressed from 4.18% to 5.82% to 5.92%. Presumably the Australian Electoral Commission will be conducting a ballot paper study to let us know how much this is down to proliferating candidate numbers leading to inadvertent mistakes, and how much to disaffection leading to deliberate spoilage of ballot papers.

• If I do say so myself, my BludgerTrack poll aggregate performed rather well. The Coalition’s two-party preferred vote is at 53.15% on current counting, which is likely to edge up towards the projected 53.5% as the remaining votes come in. Better yet, there’s a good chance the state seat projections will prove to have been exactly correct, allowing for the fact that the model did not accommodate non-major party outcomes such as the possible wins for Clive Palmer in Fairfax and Cathy McGowan in Indi. No doubt this is partly down to luck. There was some imprecision on the primary vote, with the Coalition about a point too low and the Greens about a point too high (though the model in fact scaled down the latter from the pollsters’ published results), with the circle being squared by a preference allocation method that proved over-favourable to the Coalition, based as it was on the 2010 election result (although I’m pretty sure it still performed better than a method based on respondent allocation would have done).

Nonetheless, the model was certainly successful enough to confirm the wisdom of its basic premise that the best way to read the campaign horse race is to a) only pay attention to large-scale polling, i.e. national and state-level results, b) adjust pollsters for bias according to their past performance where sufficient observations are available from recent history, c) instead use the pollster’s deviation from the aggregated poll trend where sufficient observations are not available, and d) weight the results of each pollster according to how historically accurate/consistent with the trend they have been. As to the performance of the polls themselves, I’ll have a lot more to say about that when all the votes are in. In the meantime, here’s a broad brush overview from Matthew Knott at Crikey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,937 comments on “Random observations”

Comments Page 52 of 59
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  1. BoerWar.. Figuratively speaking of course, though I dare say some might argue, in poor taste, that in a literal sense the back may be preferable.

  2. EsJ

    I enjoy your comments, as you would be aware.

    I enjoy them for their smug sense of superiority, their arrant arrogance, and their egregious bastardry towards all but the privileged few.

    You do it so well.

  3. I think boer war would be quite happy with a lumpen proletariat rump of the Alp comprised of union activists, Ssm activists and welfare lobbyists and public sector workers.

  4. Once again, this is exactly what I was talking about (and for reference, the 57 seats was being thrown around ALP supporters on Facebook). If you ignore the fact that the Country Liberal Party, Liberal National Party, the Liberal Party itself and the National Party are all the same “governing entity”, then you get a “victory”. It’s a figure you can shout from the roof-tops “We won slightly less votes than the Liberal party!”. Sure, if you ignore the QLD merger, and the Nationals, and…
    Congratulations, you have finally worked out that the Liberal Party is part of a Coalition of parties, well done.
    Still, that does not halt the fact that the ALP did out poll the Liberal Party.

    It’s blinkers over the eyes, fingers in your ears “I’m not listening” stuff. And as long as the ALP keep holding on to that sort of nonsense, it won’t learn.

    I wouldn’t get to carried away about a throw away quip on a polls blog. Talk about getting hysterical, and thanks for demonstrating that the only people still obsessed with the previous government, are the Fiberals

    You need to re-read Kevin Rudd’s “concession” speech.

    As I keep reminding you, Rudds irrelevent.
    No one in the ALP is talking about him, but if you lot want to keep fighting yesterdays battles, go ahead.It will make winning in three years time just that bit easier for the ALP

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/shortens-the-one-if-albo-refuses/story-fn9qr68y-1226715683327

    “Other Labor figures said there was an overwhelming desire in the party to produce a consensus candidate.”

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/labor-figure-bill-shorten-wants-to-be-opposition-leader-but-albanese-also-likely-to-nominate/story-fnho52ip-1226716644558

    “However, they are nervous that Mr Shorten may fail to win the support of rank-and- file party members. […] Bill is considered the only option to lead Labor out of this morass,” a senior Right MP said. “If Albo had the interests of the party in mind, he would not contest it.”

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/9/11/politics/labor-faithful-urge-albo-come-party

    “Party opinion is divided about whether a contest would be desirable or divisive.”

    Feel free to dismiss those news items – but understand that it will put you in the same category as those who said “Leadership speculation, what leadership speculation? This is all a media beat-up!” right before Rudd became Prime Minister for the second time (Once again, the ALP faithful fail to learn).

    no ones denied that there would be specualtion surrounding the opposition leadership, that does not mean that the ALP somehow fear electing their leader.
    Again, you’re trying to make up facts as you go along

    You mean like he was when he was kicked out in 2010 (and then destroyed Gillard at the election with his leaks)? Then again when he lost the leadership ballot in 2012? And again when the 2013 challenge turned into a no-show (remember how that was going to be “the end of it”)? And finally when he won?

    Don’t underestimate Rudd’s ambition. Again, you’re failing to learn. The only day Rudd becomes irrelevant is the day he’s no longer in Parliament.

    Rudds gone, he aint comming back, it’s over.
    But do keep fighting as if he is still the leader, it’s going to be great seeing you lot fight Rudd, whilst the actual Oppostion leader goes on to become PM, after only 3 years.

    There will be no Carbon Tax -> Carbon Tax ->

    Even in it’s initial stage, it was never a tax. Now it’s become an ETS

    Terminate the Carbon Tax (despite it being the greatest moral challenge of our generation)
    We will not win this by lurching to the Right on Asylum Seekers -> lurches to the right on Asylum Seekers

    Besides, just what are the Coalitions policies ?
    Does any one know ?
    Has any one told Tony ?

    The ALP needs to figure out where it stands and what it stands for – and fight for it. Not abandon its principles at the first sign of a bad poll. It can’t do that without real, genuine reform that involves the party members.

    Heres a tip, try worrying about your own party and how it is totally unprepared for Government, rather than obsess about the ALP in Opposition.
    Ohterwise you might just miss that cliff that your bound to fall off.

    All, but a very small rump, think that Rudd has a future

    Remember 2010? There wasn’t even a small rump. NO-ONE supported Kevin – to the point he resigned teary-eyed.

    Three years later… Kevin is returned to the position in order to “save the furniture” because only Rudd can. Oh, and that’s after Rudd kept fighting for it, constantly. At every opportunity, undermining Gillard – he even had Shorten’s support. If you should have learned one thing from this campaign (chaotic, dysfunctional), it’s that the leopard hasn’t changed its spots.

    Your worse than TP. It’s exactly that obsession with Rudd, the inability to move on from that era (despite even the ALP having moved on), and the Hubris you surround it all with is, if the rest of you Fibs are the same, what will make the Abbott Government a one term wonder, and a curio for future students of politics.

  5. I wasn’t aware that words had gone out of vogue BW?

    Don’t tell me you’re not pleased at events in Indi. It’s exhilerating isn’t it? The likely winner seems such an admirable person.

  6. [Remember with the current TPP count the AEC is excluding:
    Batman, Denison, Durack, Fairfax, Fisher, Indi, Kennedy, Mallee, Melbourne and O’Connor.

    Some of these have heavy LNP TPP (they are fights between Lib and Nat or LNP and Palmer) so the TPP would likely increase by some margin from the current 53.2%. I haven’t done the number crunching but it might get to around 54% I would think…..]

    Im not so sure about that: Batman and Melbourne will go very heavily against LNP; Denison moderately pro-ALP; Farifax and Fisher only moderately anti-ALP; the rest heavily LNP.

    Cant see that lifting it higher that 53.5% myself.

  7. [Nothing to see here – sons and daughters of workers no longer vote labor. Natural evolution in action !]

    That’s correct. And sons and daughters of the bourgeoisie now vote Labor or Green. Do you want to discuss electoral demography at a serious level, or just make flippant partisan jibes?

  8. ESJ @ 2556

    Well, I could say that you would be quite happy with a Liberal Party inhabited entirely by the paid hacks of assorted rent seekers, plutocrats, finance industry spivs, main chancers, crooks, climate idiots, foreign owners of our resources, billionaire publishers and the like, but I rather imagine that that is untrue.

    As a national convenor of the Informal Party I do not feel it is my place to tell people they should belong to the Labor Party.

  9. alias

    ‘Don’t tell me you’re not pleased at events in Indi. It’s exhilerating isn’t it? The likely winner seems such an admirable person.’

    I was rather looking forward to Mirabella destroying the Australian manufacturing industry.

  10. 2493 Adam Carr
    Psephos

    The mistake was the same in Victoria 2006 a transcription error

    Yes the Greens should have won the last seat in Queensland.

    I was advocating the eliminating flaws in the way the vote is counted. I did not advocating unseating any candidate. Your claim is false false.

    You might think a flawed counting system is good if your supported candidate is elected I do not. The ALP has been at the forefront of electoral reform. It should also be advocating correcting the system. I suggest you talk to John Lenders.

    You failed to mention that fact that David Feeney nearly lost his Senate seat as a result of the flaw in the way the vote is counted.

    Best that we fix the system and not seek unfair advantages by propping up a flawed system

  11. [You failed to mention that fact that David Feeney nearly lost his Senate seat as a result of the flaw in the way the vote is counted.]

    I “failed to mention” it because I’ve never heard any such suggestion, including in four years working for Feeney.

  12. Latest counting in WA Senate shows Sport Party losing ground in key break points Now less then 270 votes between TCP and RUI both of who could break the preference chain in WA and unseat Sport Party

    If the ALP can increase it’s percentage by one percent the Greens Luddy will lose in WA.

  13. [The food the world wastes accounts for more greenhouse gas emissions than any country except for China and the United States, according to a United Nations report.

    It says every year about a third of all food for human consumption, around 1.3 billion tonnes, is wasted, along with all the energy, water and chemicals needed to produce it and dispose of it.

    Almost 30 per cent of the world’s farmland, and a volume of water equivalent to the annual discharge of Europe’s River Volga, are in effect being used in vain.

    In its Food Wastage Footprint report, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimated the carbon footprint of wasted food was equivalent to 3.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year.

    If it were a country, it would be the world’s third biggest emitter after China and the US, suggesting that more efficient food use could contribute substantially to global efforts to cut greenhouse gases to limit global warming.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-11/un-says-wasted-food-is-third-biggest-carbon-emitter/4952126

  14. [Will Mrs Mirabella be giving a concession speech if she loses

    It won’t be pretty.]
    On the contrary. It will be a thing to savour. Every second of it!

  15. [The mistake in Counting INDI has placed it beyond the LNP to win unless she can attract over 65-70% of outsanding votes]

    The AEC still hasn’t recorded these votes and has McGowan leading by only 501. Has Mirabella taken out an injunction or something? I wouldn’t put it past her.

  16. Here are some lines for Mirabella to consider quoting in her gracious speech of utter humiliation and defeat:

    ‘There is a tide in the affairs of women
    Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
    Omitted, all the voyage of their life
    Is bound in shallows and in miseries.’

    Julius Cæsar. ACT IV Scene 3.

  17. [In the middle weeks there were articles that Kevin Rudd would lose his own seat. Two polling companies (Newspoll for The Australian and Lonergan for Guardian Australia) had Rudd losing his seat 48-52. In the end he won 53-47. So they were a bit more than completely wrong. According to another poll, Matt Thistlethwaite was to lose Kingsford Smith 48-52 (he ended up winning 53-47) and Chris Bowen was to lose 47-53 (he won 56-44).]

    Just a quick reminder that those most of those seat polls were worthless bullshit!

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-11/jericho-in-qualified-praise-of-the-press-gallery/4948676

  18. Oh I hold no candle for the Liberal Party boer war. Its just exposing the hypocrisy of the Party of Thommo and ICAC that is important.

    It is quite funny people like ruawake , mysay etc handing over party fees to fund thommo’s legal issues amongst other hypocrises.

  19. [Latest counting in WA Senate shows Sport Party losing ground in key break points Now less then 270 votes between TCP and RUI both of who could break the preference chain in WA and unseat Sport Party ]

    To whom? Some other micro in the preference Ponzi scheme?

  20. @new2this/2580

    No need to say it twice…. 😛

    @edj/2583

    So no Shop lifting, Drink Driving, QLD Senators, Sacking of liberal premiers, sacking of NSW Finance Minister?

  21. confessions

    Sydney have a few players carrying injuries. Adam Goodes has been out injured for about 11 weeks, but perhaps will return to play. Also Carlton may have Matthew Kruezer out injured. Today I am not so confident of getting over the Swans.

  22. Dee

    The interesting is that humans used to ‘waste’ even more food back in the olden days. Insects and rats ate standing food, things went off, rotted, couldn’t be harvested, stored or transported, etc, etc.

    Unsurprisingly it is the people for whom EsJ trolls, who at an invidual level, are the biggest per capita wasters of food. If there are leftovers they just chuck them out and start the next night’s meal afresh, as it were. If there are a few carrots, or whatever, left uncooked for a particular recipe, out they go.

  23. v

    ‘Today I am not so confident of getting over the Swans.’

    It is not too hard to get over the Swans if you are a Hawks supporter. All those narrow defeats!

    ‘Vengeance is ours!’, sayeth the Lords of Footie.

  24. pseph

    because the votes turned up, the whole booth has to be recounted, so the results previously recorded for it have been withdrawn from the count and the new votes haven’t been added.

    Keen observers would have noted that the tally for Indi has gone backwards since this morning, despite an extra 2000 postals being counted!

  25. N2T

    If there is one thing I despise it is a vulger, uncouth Liberal supporter.

    Finishing School failures are so de trop.

    Please come back when you have learned some je ne sais quoi.

  26. Apparently Mirabella had booked a shed for her victory speech and invited EsJ to act as master of ceremonies because he has a way with words.

    I am not sure about Plan B.

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