Photo finishes: Eden-Monaro

This post will be progressively updated to follow the late counting in the undecided seat of Eden-Monaro.

Friday evening. Another 2878 postals have added 288 to Peter Hendy’s lead, which is not at 990. 1562 absent votes have been better for Mike Kelly, breaking 844-718 his way, but as Kelly acknowledged with today’s concession of defeat, it’s too little too late. Unless some late count surprise occurs, I’m going to stop following this one.

Thursday evening. 20 pre-polls have favoured Mike Kelly by 148, but 3653 postals have unfavoured him by 275. That means a net gain of 127 for Peter Hendy, who now leads by 633. There are likely to be a further 3000 pre-polls and 3000 postals to come, plus over 2000 absent votes of which none have yet been counted, with Kelly needing about 54% of them to break his way.

Wednesday 4pm. Still slow progress here, with the addition of 729 pre-polls being the only substantial new addition. These have favoured Mike Kelly by 407 to 322, reducing the margin to 506.

Monday 4pm. Cooma South, Jindabyne and Sunshine Bay booths finally added, together with one hospital booth, each have which has contributed to a widening of Peter Hendy’s lead from 246 to 569.

Sunday 6pm. There are another 1544 votes in the count, but there are still missing results from Cooma South and Jindabyne and a couple of pre-poll voting centres. The newly added votes have given Peter Hendy a lead of 246.

Election night. After initially looking promising for Mike Kelly, the count has steadily drifted away from him to the point where Liberal member Peter Hendy has overtaken him on two of three available measures. Antony Green’s booth matching has the swing at 4.4%, giving Hendy a lead at 0.2%. He also provides a raw preference count that gives Kelly the narrowest of leads at 36097 to 36093. The AEC for some reason has percentages but not the numbers they are derived from, and they have Hendy leading by 0.55%. However, they are based on fewer booths than the primary vote count, and the primary vote count total is equal to Antony’s two-party calculation, so either Antony’s figures are a projection of some kind or it’s his numbers that are more up to date. A half-dozen booths, both ordinary and pre-poll, are yet to report one or both of their counts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12 comments on “Photo finishes: Eden-Monaro”

  1. We already have a useless dumb arse state member and I for one don’t want a liberal hack instead of a very good active representative. I’m vey disappointed to see it so close. There are 3 postal’s awaiting for Dr Kelly from my house hold if that’s any consolation.

  2. Anthony said his preference allocations were estimates rather than the actuals which were slower coming out. No counting today so will have to wait.

  3. Thanks DWBarry. As a banana-bender I didn’t know that nuance of the Victorian ballot. So they boxless team ‘B’?
    Can anyone point me to images of the actual ballots?

    Inverted clusterf**** then; had the LDP lodged a GVT in Victoria who knows how much more ‘luck’ they’d be having!

    I note in SA in 2010 they managed a mere 0.55%, because they were at the tail of the ballot and the Liberals near the front. Still confusing a few voters who might read from right to left perhaps.

    Including 2013 and 2010 (10 cases), there are very statistically significant (at p = 0.02 and 0.04 levels), fairly strong correlations between LDP vote share and each of these variables:
    * their raw position on the ballot (eg 1st)
    * their relative position on the ballot (eg half way down)
    * their relative position compared to Liberals relative position. And this is the strongest correlation of the three.

  4. Mike Kelly is now down by 634 votes and it does not look- It’s a shame he could of been a senior frontbencher if he retained his seat. Reminds me of Michael Lee losing he’s seat in the 2001 election. Left before he’s time had come.

  5. Not sure if Mike Kelly has any South Brisbane connections but would love to see him stand at the inevitable Griffith by election!

  6. Mike Kelly has conceded today. Blamed the leadership instability and parts of the media for the government’s downfall. Took aim at the Kevin Rudd sacking in 2010 which he says was a mistake. Says also he won’t rule out re-contesting Eden-Monaro again.

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