I’m running the above headline essentially because I have no new poll to trumpet for the following assortment of bits-and-pieces. The latest addition is yesterday’s large-sample ReachTEL poll, which was a relatively good result for Labor taking into account the past lean to the Coalition in this series. Its inclusion caused a 0.6% shift in Labor’s favour without affecting the seat projection, mostly because the improvement was concentrated in Victoria where there are few marginal seats. This isn’t the first time recently that the addition of a ReachTEL result has caused BludgerTrack to move in Labor’s favour, which raises the possibility that the series is not as pro-Coalition as it used to be. If so, the addition of the result with out-of-date bias adjustments attached might be causing the present BludgerTrack numbers to flatter Labor slightly. There has apparently been, for the second evening running, a poll conducted overnight by ReachTEL which will have been unveiled on Seven Sunrise by the time most of you are reading this.
(UPDATE: A less good result today for Labor, and another good one for the Palmer United Party. Labor’s primary vote is down to 32.7% and the Coalition’s up to 43.6%, with the Greens on 10.0% and Palmer on 6.1%. Two-party preferred is 53-47 to the Coalition. ReachTEL also has a very ugly result for Labor from the Tasmanian seat of Bass, courtesy of the Launceston Examiner, with Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic on 51.8% and Labor member Geoff Lyons on 26.6%.)
Now to those bits and pieces. First, I address what looks to be one of the election’s most significant imponderables: the share of the vote that will go to micro-parties in the Senate. Much hinges on the answer, given the tightness of the preference arrangements between micro-parties and the extremely limited value of polling as a guide to the smaller details of Senate voting patterns. Tim Colebatch of Fairfax has run reports over the past week based based on what Antony Green’s Senate election calcalators come up with when seemingly plausible vote share scenarios are plugged into them, which have been partly inspired by simulations conducted by Poll Bludger commenter Truth Seeker (who details them on his own blog).
One particularly headline-grabbing observation was that Pauline Hanson might succeed in her bid for a New South Wales Senate seat at the expense of Arthur Sinodinos, who has the number three position on the Coalition ticket in New South Wales. Since Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all have Hanson last on their preference order, this can only happen if she and the various parties feeding her preferences collectively amount to more than a quota (14.3%). Colebatch argues that this is highly plausible: “In 2010, 29 micro-parties won 14 per cent of the vote between them. This time there will be 41 of them, and disillusioned Labor supporters could swell their collective vote to 20 per cent – easily enough for a Senate quota.”
This appears to assume that collective vote share of micro-parties will continue to expand as more of them enter the field. Evidence from the last three elections, which provide a common footing in that the Democrats and One Nation had faded from minor to micro-party status, provides some support for this. Excluding the unusual circumstance of South Australia in 2007, when Nick Xenophon polled a full quota in his own right, there are 17 state-level observations for modelling the relationship between the number of Senate groups and the vote share for micro-parties (which I take to mean everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens). The model I have derived is 0.243+(0.283*A)+(0.681*B), where A is the number of Senate groups and B is the “others” vote in the House of Representatives from the state in question. This has an R-squared of 0.517 and a p-value of 0.006, which is to say that the model explains 51.7% of the variation in these 17 results and has a 99.4% chance of being better than no model at all.
With unprecedented numbers of Senate groups at this election ranging from 23 in Tasmania to 44 in New South Wales, this suggests “others” votes ranging from 12.9% to 20.5% (going off the BludgerTrack projections for the lower house “others” vote), which is well in line with Colebatch’s expectations. However, there’s a considerable theoretical problem with the model in that it presumes the relationship to be perfectly linear. If this were so, the major party vote would disappear altogether if only enough micro-parties took the field. In reality, the rate of increase has to taper off, and the meagre sample of observations available offers no insight as to point at which it does so. My own guess though is that it kicks in fairly sharply before we reach the stage where we can start talking of an aggregate micro-party vote approaching 20%.
To offer some historic guidance as to the sorts of numbers you should be punching into the Senate calcalators, the table below displays the vote for micro-parties of various kinds in each state. “Religious” includes the Democratic Labour Party, although they no doubt occupy something of a grey area. The “right” category is exclusive of the “religious” one. “Left” is defined broadly to incorporate the Democrats and all environmentalist concerns, even ostensibly conservative ones. There were also parties and independents that were deemed not to fall into any of these categories, so the “total” column is not simply an aggregate of the other three.
2010 Relig. Right Left Total NSW 3.63 5.55 3.37 13.82 Victoria 5.35 3.83 3.28 13.2 Queensland 4.31 7.59 3.61 16.43 WA 3.71 2.66 2.81 9.92 SA 5 2.65 2.55 11.11 Tasmania 1.69 2.24 0.66 5.36 TOTAL 4.16 4.81 3.18 13.13 2007 NSW 3.83 3.35 2.44 10.17 Victoria 3.77 1.24 3.16 8.72 Queensland 2.76 6.73 3.04 13.08 WA 3.57 1.1 1.84 7.04 SA 3.97 1.68 1.68 22.25 Tasmania 2.67 0.19 0.78 4.38 TOTAL 3.48 2.97 2.57 10.71 2004 NSW 3.17 3.73 3.88 12.17 Victoria 4.16 1.55 4.18 10.98 Queensland 3.37 9.34 4.09 18.05 WA 2.73 2.82 3.05 9.22 SA 3.98 1.53 3.95 10.02 Tasmania 3.03 0.16 0.82 7.04 TOTAL 3.42 2.93 3.84 12.22
Now to some scattered bits of news for around the traps that I have recently used to supplement the seat-by-seat election guide:
Indi (Liberal 9.0%):Liberals have been telling journalists of serious concerns for Sophie Mirabella’s hold on Indi, where she faces a well-organised challenge from independent Cathy McGowan. The Guardian reports on widespread opinion polling being conducted in the electorate; the Weekly Times reports that Labor are campaigning strongly to boost McGowan; and The Australian reports some in the Liberal Party have been urging Tony Abbott to visit the electorate. The contest is another source of friction between the coalition parties, with former state Nationals MP Ken Jasper among those who are throwing their weight behind McGowan.
Melbourne (Greens 6.0% versus Labor): The Greens have been spruiking a poll of 400 respondents conducted for them by Galaxy showing Adam Bandt’s primary vote up 4% since the 2010 election, with “as many as four in 10” Liberal voters in the seat planning to ignore the direction of their party’s how-to-vote card that voters should favour Labor ahead of the Greens in their preference allocation. This is actually in line with the 35% rate of leakage in inner Melbourne when the Liberals likewise directed preferences against the Greens at the 2010 state election, which nonetheless wasn’t high enough to win them any of the seats they were anticipating. But taken together with the purported primary vote swing, it suggests a very close result.
McMahon (Labor 7.8%): The Liberal candidate for Chris Bowen’s western Sydney seat, Liverpool area police superintendent Ray King, has been defended by a series of police figures and corruption investigators after Labor claimed he had a “close friend” in Roger Rogerson, the notorious detective who was imprisoned in 1990 for perverting the course of justice. The claim has been denied by Rogerson as well as King, with retired assistant commissioner Geoff Schuberg complaining of a “grubby, baseless smear campaign”.
Forde (Liberal National 1.6%):The Australian reports that Forde MP Bert van Manen, who is fighting off a challenge from Peter Beattie, was the half-owner and recently resigned director of a financial planning firm which owed creditors more than $1.5 million when it collapsed last year. The report says administrators KPMG had told creditors of “unreasonable director-related transactions” behind the collapse. A Liberal spokesperson was quoted saying van Manen had personally settled with the main credtior, Westpac, but no comment was offered on $325,000 owed to three further creditors.
Greenway (Labor 0.9%): The Sydney Morning Herald observes a “systemic” silence among Liberal candidates in Sydney, “with multiple examples emerging of candidates pulling out of events or interviews”. The low profile assumed by Greenway MP Jaymes Diaz has been particularly widely noted, after he failed to show for a candidates forum in Blacktown last week.
Herbert (Liberal National 2.2%) and Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%): Sid Maher of The Australian identifies marginal seats on the central Queensland coast as the main targets for the Coalition’s promised curtailing of marine protected areas, a pitch at commercial and recreational fishers. A similar promise before the 2010 election was “credited with delivering the seat of Dawson”, by persons unidentified.
GG
The LNP are certainly making the Greens look professional.
So today we have:
52 from Essential
53 from Galaxy
53 from Reachtel
I imagine we get the others (ACN, Newspoll, Morgan) tomorrow, yeah?
“@ben__fisher: WHO’S INCOMPETENT NOW @TonyAbbottMHR ??? #auspol”
@Lord of the Zoids
When was the galaxy poll conducted? Do you know?
Rosemour,
Cut to the quick, did I?
‘Internet backflip lead story on ABC News.’
Wow!
Celebrate everyone!!
I feel the tide is changing!!!!!
We’ve got Abbott on the ropes now!!!
Lead story on the ABC!!!!
Holy shit!!!
It’s all over.
Abbott is toast!!!
Toast I tell you!!!
For me it works either way.
Either the remaining undecideds finally get it and Labor sneaks in with the election upset of all time. Dancing in the streets!
Or.. Abbott wins, gets into government, and suddenly discovers what a Senate is for, and is made to look totally utterly incompetent, and for good measure starts losing it completely. Lots of nice buttery hot popcorn 🙂
VERY VERY bad decision to cut foreign aid.
When the ALP does something stupid why does the LNP have to follow?
[It’s because of my resolve and entusiasm for the Labor cause ]
Thats why you put the doc martens on to kick Labor to death.
Utter totally a tory lap dog.
FFS what a wanker. Who would ever want you around in times of trouble.
Off you go and vote tory.
Rosemour
ALP theme for pressers tomorrow. Chaos and incompetence from the LNP. Who’s running the joint? Children?
@River/1802
Waiting for details from Ghost or James.
Rosemour
It’s finally a good story for Labor. You should be pleased. It’s not going to win an election but it is a step in the right direction. Unfortunately there haven’t been enough.
@Mod Lib/1806
I thought Labor only made stupid mistakes (RE: FBT Changes).
@thetiprat: @MikeCarlton01 Do you think Murdoch press front page on Courier Mail tomorrow arguably a little ambiguous? http://t.co/sExKLOGn5m
[When the ALP does something stupid why does the LNP have to follow?]
Because cutting foreign aid is popular with floating voters, who see it as wasting their money on foreigners.
[zoidlord
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 10:07 pm | PERMALINK
@Mod Lib/1806
I thought Labor only made stupid mistakes (RE: FBT Changes).]
Labor is very good at it, but they don’t have exclusive rights.
Guytaur
I think whatever mileage could have been had from Hockey today and the internet filter debacle has passed.
A week perhaps two ago would have been a different story.
Alas, it’s not over til the final siren! 🙂
[ Rosemour
It’s finally a good story for Labor. You should be pleased.]
Rosemour never was, never will be a friend of Labor.
In another time, another place – one of the first up against the wall.
Nothing worse than treachery.
@drng: “@MichaelEMann: “Climate Scientist Can Sue for Defamation, Judge Says” by Gayathri Vaidyanathan of @Discovery_News http://t.co/gYblyijxHs
Dave
What a sad little turd you are.
I’ll be voting Green/Labor as usual
How about you?
Anytime you want compare Labor credentials let me know.
Attack me because I’m angry.
But don’t presume to know anything about me. Wanker.
One of the problems with PB is the prevalence of a ‘Luddite’ view regarding Social Media.
It may, or may not be a major force in determining voters views of Australian Politics at THIS election …but Social Media is the unstoppable future regarding how people get their news & opinions & how they develop their political viewpoint.
Old Media is dying rapidly …New Media is growing rapidly. It’s immune from the election changing power exerted by Old Media magnates …it’s the closest thing we have to genuine democracy.
Ignore it …pooh pooh it as irrelevant …every single bit of social progress has endured the same level of opposition and ridicule. Social Media is here to stay & grow. I can’t stop it (don’t want to) …u can’t stop it. It is an organism which thrives on the need for people to express their views and desires…
Old Media is dying …Long live New (Social) Media…
so this is an example of Abbotts adults in charge. couldn’t even get the lines right on the internet filter.
‘Nothing worse than treachery.’
Actually blind dumb arse faith and optimisim in face of a clusterfuck is way worse Davo.
But then, you’re apparently so fecking dumb you can’r see what’s coming.
Goodluck with that you fool.
Maybe filtergate is not enough for Labor to win Government.
However the Senate is another matter. e.g. Senator Ludlam was anti filter champion when Conroy was proposing it. He is against this one too. So might make a difference especially considering the Wikileaks preferences going against him.
Rosemour or Less@1818
Thats right you surrendered the night the election was called and have put the boot into Labor 40 to 50 times a day ever since.
Great support comrade.
Labor don’t need ‘supporters’ like you.
Gutless prick.
spectator,
If the Lib filter was already in place, you would never have found out.
‘It’s finally a good story for Labor. You should be pleased.’
Oh my feckiing God.
Is that all it takes to get the juices flowing.
Finally a good story for Labor?
Are you serious?
Is that supposed to make being slaughteredon Saturday just that little bit less traumatic?
Saints fuking preserve us.
[you’re apparently so fecking dumb you can’r see what’s coming.]
Off you go – back to abbott and get a pat on the head or whatever.
[quote]but Social Media is the unstoppable future regarding how people get their news & opinions & how they develop their political viewpoint.[/quote]
That is the worst idea I’ve heard all month.
Oh dear. I’m not ‘hip’ or ‘with it’ anymore 🙁
dave,
“Thats right you surrendered the night the election was called and have put the boot into Labor 40 to 50 times a day ever since”.
To be fair, Rosemour surrendered a couple of years ago.
[ Are you serious?
Is that supposed to make being slaughteredon Saturday just that little bit less traumatic? ]
And you have done nothing but cheer it all for fucking weeks.
What a total arsehole.
[Ignore it …pooh pooh it as irrelevant …every single bit of social progress has endured the same level of opposition and ridicule. Social Media is here to stay & grow. I can’t stop it (don’t want to) …u can’t stop it. It is an organism which thrives on the need for people to express their views and desires…]
It is an unregulated information exchange. A lot of it is pooh pooh and a lesser amount is not.
Bowen is on Lateline.
Should be interesting
[ Greensborough Growler
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 10:18 pm | Permalink
dave,
To be fair, Rosemour surrendered a couple of years ago. ]
Good point.
Born yella.
Just don’t turn your back or he will knife you.
[A lot of it is pooh pooh and a lesser amount is not.]
Which pretty much sums up the old media these days.
Nemspy:
[Yep, it’s well hidden on the front page of The Australian’s website. “Libs hit reverse on internet filter”]
There are two issues. One, it is night now. How many people are up reading The Australian’s website? This story will likely get buried by the morning.
Second, the story is not just that the Coalition have “hit reverse on internet filter”. It is that the Coalition are trying to hide their real agenda. This policy somehow slipped out.
If this happened to Labor you would not only have headlines like “Labor hits reverse on internet filter”. You would see: “Labor falling to pieces on filter”, “Secret Labor policy leaked.”, “Labor in turmoil”, “Labor’s Big Brother is watching YOU!” etc, etc…
Its the double standard that pisses me off.
[Just don’t turn your back or he will knife you.]
Is Rosemour Kevin Rudd?
Rosemour
I can tell you aren’t going to take the defeat very well.
Wonder if Galaxy has same mutual drop off in primaries with shift to others
Rosemour is the most obvious and pernicious ‘concern troll’ I’ve ever come across ..here or on Twitter…
He/she has no allegiance/loyalty to the ALP …whether he/she votes for them or not…
Rosemour is the apotheosis of a concern troll …I could almost admire him/her for that…
Bottom line for me though …is that Rosemour’s ONLY reason for posting on PB …is to sap the positive energy of those who desperately work towards the re-election of a socially progressive ALP Govt …a party of which I am a proud member…
His/her ‘contributions’ are reprehensible & he/she deserves the condemnation & disgust of all true Labor believers…
Mod Lib@1835
Lot more in common with Mod Lib.
This one’s for Warrior Dave.
I’m feeling good about Saturday.
I think we should really show those tory fuks and their toadies at the ABC what real kick arse political hard arsery is.
I think Abbott’s really rattled by this internet filter debacle. Everyone’s talking about it. I think it’ll swing a lot of votes.
Really we couldn’t have hoped for such a gift so close to election day.
Just brilliant strategy by Bruce Hawkerto cleverly draw this own goal from the Liberals. God they’re hopless.
It’s ’93 groundhog day.
Christ the look on Abbott’s face when he concedes will be absofukinglute gold!!!
Go Labor!!! Everything about the campaign has been timed to perfection. Arise Sir Bruce!
Absofukinglute genius.
“@jonathanvswan: “A massive clusterf—” – the most succinct description of today’s events from Liberal source.”
“@jonathanvswan: To the conspiracy theorists suggesting Turnbull had a secret plan to filter the net… Please stop. You’re wrong. More on this in morning..”
Its a good time to be a Liberal…
@guytaur/1842
haha, total backflip.
1842
Yes hes does not secretly want to filter the internet. He wants to filter the Coalition leadership.
N2T… do you say anything else?
‘I can tell you aren’t going to take the defeat very well.’
Actually I’m not making the same mistake I did in 98, 01 and 04 and I’m well prepared and already made the adjustment.
Chill. There’s nothing to be done about it now.
Dave,
I have never found a Lib policy that Mod Lib supports. Yet, she’s an ardent supporter.