Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

From a glass-half-full Labor perspective, this week’s Newspoll shows an encouraging three-point lift on the primary vote. But it still corroborates the result of the most recent Nielsen survey in suggesting a solid win for the Coalition.

This week’s Newspoll finds Labor making a minor gain on two-party preferred, from 54-46 to 53-47. It comes despite a three-point improvement on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 47% and 9%, and the balance coming off others. The disparity is down to a set of numbers last time which suggested the rounding to two-party preferred had favoured Labor. The personal ratings are the first in a while where Kevin Rudd’s position hasn’t deteriorated, although this may be due to a bad sample for Labor last week. His approval rating is up one to 36% and his disapproval down two to 52%, while Tony Abbott continues improving steadily with approval up one to 42% and disapproval down two to 49%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased slightly, from 43-41 to 44-40. The sample is back to its normal size of a little over 1100, after being bumped up to over 1600 last week to allow for fortnightly aggregated state-level results from decent sample sizes.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences and 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated, up half a point on both measures. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 34.5%, the Coalition is up half a point to 45% and the Greens are up 1.5% to 11%. Full details including state breakdowns here. Here too the poll is back to a normal sample size, of 3419, after blowing out to 4515 for some reason last week.

The addition of Newspoll and Morgan to BludgerTrack finds two-party preferred moving 0.2% in the Coalition’s direction, but Labor gaining one on the seat projection. This is down to the confounding pattern of strong numbers for Labor in state breakdowns for Queensland, the latest examples being a 37% primary vote from last week’s Newspoll aggregate, 39% from Saturday’s Nielsen and 36% from today’s Morgan, compared with 33.6% at the 2010 election. This is flatly contradicted by all seat-level polling, most notably Saturday’s large-sample Newspoll of the eight most marginal Liberal National Party seats, which had the Labor primary vote down 4.5% from 2010. Due to the probability that seats selected for such polling will not be representative of the state at large, the model can only use the statewide results. So while the BludgerTrack vote and seat numbers look broadly in line with expectations in the other states, I suggest the projection of a three-seat gain in Queensland be treated with considerable caution.

Finally, Adelaide’s Sunday Mail brought us a Galaxy poll of 586 respondents in Hindmarsh, Labor’s most marginal seat in South Australia, which had the result at 50-50, a swing to the Liberals of 6%. I’m not sure if this was a live interview poll like Galaxy normally does, or an automated one such as they did last week for the first time with marginal seat polling in Sydney and Victoria. UPDATE: The poll was automated. The primary votes were 41% for Labor (44.7% at the 2010 election), 44% for the Liberals (38.6%) and 10% for the Greens (12.2%).

UPDATE: Essential Research is still at 50-50, but Labor is down two on the primary vote to 38% with the Greens surging three points to 11%, and the Coalition down one to 43%. The poll also finds 60% of Coalition supporters saying they will “definitely not change my mind” against only 46% for Labor, while 17% of respondents rating it “quite possible I will change my mind” against 11% of Coalition. Since I started paying attention a few years ago, I have never seen the Coalition fail to do better than Labor on this measure. I’m not sure whether this is a Coalition/Labor thing, or if it’s to do with the fact that every election I’ve been observing has been a bad one for Labor. Kevin Rudd’s net approval has moved into negative territory since a fortnight ago, his approval down four to 41% and disapproval up two to 45%. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 37% and up one on disapproval to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 43-34. Two points of encouragement for Labor: their parental leave scheme is favoured over the Coalition’s by 35% to 24%, and respondents were slightly more inclined to believe Labor rather than the Coalition would be able to pay for its commitments without spending cuts (41% thinking it very unlikely the Coalition could do so against 35% for Labor).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,645 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 32 of 33
1 31 32 33
  1. [ spiked as usual with psycho greenies and ALP drones]

    As if the young women Liberal stooges reading from notes wasn’t half obvious tonight 😀

  2. mexicanbeemer @15547

    Because 95% or more will be the low paid and median paid women who will be better off. And are we talking about a dichotomy ? We can’t have one with the other ?

  3. Qanda.

    Shorten was far more credible than the IPA and by extension Kelly O’Dwyer.

    Despite the political history/bastadry, Shorten is a person dedicated to the good of those who work and earn their way in our world. Destroyed, disabled.

    He first came to my attention. Retains those precepts and intentions.

    Tonight on Sunday Profile I want you to meet Bill Shorten, the public face of the Beaconsfield Mine Rescue and the National Secretary of the Australian Workers Union – christened by Kim Beasley the “interpreter for Australia.”

    ‘At a time when Australia’s union movement seemed headed for extinction along came a tragedy and Bill Shorten to remind us that unions are about people as well as politics, support as well as strikes, and communities as well as ideology.

    It’s been an intense and very public fortnight for Bill Shorten who turned 39 this week.

    He attended the funeral of one of his members, Larry Knight who was killed by the rock fall that trapped Todd Russell and Brandt Webb one kilometre underground for fourteen days.

    We’re about to be hearing a good deal more from Bill Shorten.

    He’ll be in Parliament after the next election.

    And his shoulders now carry a very big weight of expectations’.

  4. AussieAchmed @1549

    And if you were a woman (or maybe you are) and you wanted to have a child you would have been eligible for a FAR FAR better PPL than the lowly paid woman in a factory. FAIR ?

  5. I think it was Frank Crean who said wtte “Farmers always want to capitalise their gains and socialise their losses”. It is amazing how many farmers after a decade of drought or flood relief, local employment schemes, roads and utilities provided to their door at cost to the community, and a tax system that allows them to avoid tax in the good years in lieu of losses in other years, still think of themselves as individualist, anti-government, anti-welfare types.

    I see the same thing with many anti-welfare conservatives – I like to start asking them where they went to school (many to elite massively taxpayer funded subsidised schools), where they went to uni (the over 40 y.o.s all got through uni on zero or low HECS – went up drastically after 1996 for some reason), and pointing out they have done pretty well out of welfare. they hate it.

  6. If Abbott or any Leader was truly concerned about women in the workforce re-engaging after time off on PPL they would be investing in decent, affordable child care.

    The Mums wont re-engage with the work force if they cannot leave their child with a good decent child carer that is affordable.

    Don’t matter how much you pay them to be away from work or for how long.

    Child care is where the money should be invested.

  7. Judging by the cheers and clapping on Q&A was pretty balanced. Tony Abbott is simply afraid of scrutiny in an environment that he or his allies don’t control.

  8. briefly@1286


    This particular kind of arrogance – that says you know best, and others should learn to accept what you have to say and otherwise STFU – is tantamount to telling West Australians to vote LNP.

    Yes, the LNP give them such a great deal don’t they?

  9. Here’s the picture

    flat        |Labor |Yuck

    The bottom two are half way to addressing parenting issues. The top two are full way to addressing parenting issues

    However, the top left and bottom right are incorrect. Both introduce side effects in the inappropriate shifting/covering of costs by people unrelated to the activities incurring those costs.

  10. @morpheus/1548

    Now your side stepping the issue by questioning Public Service PPL.

    I ask again, why bother with an entire new scheme, when Abbott all has to mend the existing scheme?

  11. Sean

    My opposition to the PPL properly says something about about what is wrong with the Liberal Party.

    I believe that Government has a role to play that in short helps to crate a healthy, wealthy and wise society.

    Beyond that a good government does what is needed to achieve that by ensuring regulations are effective without being a burdan.

    Tax dollars are spent wisely with the objective of seeing a return to the current and future generations.

    I don’t like the welfare state.

    I know many highly successful women and the thing these women want is a safe society for them and their family, good education and job prospects.

    They often use having as a child as an opportunity to change career, and as one person said on Q&A they need greater flexibility with greater access to child care.

  12. Morpheus
    The gov’t will sell your words, and that other honeycomb brainwave Seantisme’s, for use as doggy incontinence pads. (yes, they really do exist.) The gov’t will make a killing on the aged dogs’ nappies market.

  13. morpheus

    Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed @1549

    And if you were a woman (or maybe you are) and you wanted to have a child you would have been eligible for a FAR FAR better PPL than the lowly paid woman in a factory. FAIR ?

    if I was a woman yes I would have had access to a beter paid PPL than the factory worker.

    But that does not change under Abbott’s scheme!! The mother gets paid their wage for 6 months.

    The wage differential does not change

  14. What was interesting on Q&A tonight was Watson admitting that Murdoch supports (and supported) leaders of many sides of politics. I wonder how loud the left wing whingers were crying when Murdoch was pandering to their egos ? Were they demanding media control and jail for non-conformist journalists when they were being supported by the media ?
    The left are such pathetic hypocrites. Its always someone elses fault especially if they stop loving them. As Turnball very elequently said about Kevin and Murdoch – It is almost like a lover’s tiff.

  15. [I thought Sean was heading for New Zealand?]

    I almost feel sorry for New Zealand.

    At least while he’s there, Sean might get to see what happens when you actually do a FTTN build and realise it was a technical failure and then move on to fibre.

  16. Stop talking Rubbish, morpheus. We didn’t like Murdoch then and we don’t like him now. In fact, if you were paying attention you would have noticed that Rudd copped some flak a while ago for being too cosy with Murdoch.

  17. zoidlord

    Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 at 11:36 pm | Permalink


    I thought Sean was heading for New Zealand?

    just another Liberal broken promise

  18. Why does Q&A have an audience?

    I know, it’s “real time” stuff. Except that it has been scripted so as to be worthless.

  19. AA @1567

    The wage differential does not change ? The factory worker would get a lot more than they are now under the ALP scheme while you would have been earning more because of YOUR discriminatory tax payer PPL which the ALP doesn’t want to talk about because it completely erases their argument. So you are happy for PS to have a much better PPL scheme than anyone else while bullshitting about another PPL scheme which WILL give low paid women (and they will form almost all the claims) more money. Hypocritical much ?

  20. Potentially many Women dominated industries will see the labour cost savings as an opportunity too push for wage rises.

  21. DisplayName @1572

    Even worse, are you crucifying the Messiah for his rhetoric NOW as opposed to his past relationship with Murdoch ?

  22. On a petty and irrelevant sort of Julie Bishop note.

    Since this was last discussed. That is last night.

    I note that in its introduction the Drum has expunged the Claw gesture of Annabel, a la Bishop.

    I observe too that Annabel has returned in a dress sense to the world of the kind of thing one would wear if say, catching a train.

    Apologies, Puff. In your absence, deputy assistant fashion editor.

  23. Think about it. The ABC is our public broadcaster.

    The CEO has stood for pre-selection for the Liberal Party.

    Do you think that any stuff emanating from his lot is worth attention?

  24. morpheus@1578

    DisplayName @1572

    Except when he was licking Kevin’s balls in 2007 ? Or have you all had frontal lobotomies ?

    I have never had a kind word to say of Murdoch. I’m beginning to suspect you’re arguing with some imaginary foes that exist only inside of your own head.

    Even worse, are you crucifying the Messiah for his rhetoric NOW as opposed to his past relationship with Murdoch ?

    Heh, you need to rethink your question. Come back when you’ve figured it out :P.

  25. As a South Aussie, why on earth would I not despise Murdoch?

    Hate is a little strong, Mex Beemer.

    But Victorian values are somewhat opaque.

  26. morpheus

    Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    AA @1567

    The wage differential does not change ? The factory worker would get a lot more than they are now under the ALP scheme while you would have been earning more because of YOUR discriminatory tax payer PPL which the ALP doesn’t want to talk about because it completely erases their argument. So you are happy for PS to have a much better PPL scheme than anyone else while bullshitting about another PPL scheme which WILL give low paid women (and they will form almost all the claims) more money. Hypocritical much ?

    I know you want to make this about the public service.

    But public service or any industry that has a PPL as an Award condition have traded off pay rises and other conditions to get that PPL in their Award. So it has been the Unions, with approval and support of male and female members, who have supported those trade offs.

    If they had not made those trade offs they would be getting the current govt payment.

    I’m sure many would be happy to have those pay rises and conditions returned in exchange for Abbotts welfare payment.

  27. CW

    I can understand why you and others dislike Murdooch, as the leader he is responsible for the culture of his organisation and the behavior we know went on at News International should be of concern to everyone.

  28. mexicanbeemer

    Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 at 11:56 pm | Permalink


    I think some Liberals would be shocked at the pay rates and spending which occurs in some major corporations.

    And the level of waste. I get it that people expect Government to be prudent and not waste taxpayer money.

    But how much more are we paying for goods and services from private business due to their waste and poor management.

  29. I’ve disliked Murdoch since the day he gave up his Australian citizenship to pursue money.

    How could money be more important than being a citizen of this great country?

    His action was treasonous and he should be forever banned for owning anything in Australia and forever denied entry. His name should forever be stricken from our memory

  30. No wonder the ALP doesn’t wasn’t to extend their generous public servant PPL to the people that actually pay taxes in the real world.

    Take the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.

    According to the last annual report, the department had:

    602 staff (although this number seems very rubbery)
    60.8% were female
    77.2% were under 45

    In short, the PM&C seems to be chockful of breeders.

    Pay bands:

    64 SES staff paid – $139,000 – $388,498 (although the top staff seemed to take home a lot more than this)
    EL2 107 staff – $112,340 – $141,591
    EL1 173 staff – $96,518 – $117,647
    APS 4-6 – 227 staff – $59,119 – $92,456

    Total employee expenses – $109.6 million

    Average employee expense based on 602 staff – $182,059 per emplyee

    That’s a stack more than the $75 K the drones are craping on about.

Comments Page 32 of 33
1 31 32 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *