Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition; Newspoll: 52-48 to LNP in Griffith

Yesterday’s hard-to-believe automated phone poll showing Kevin Rudd in big trouble in his seat of Griffith has now been precisely corroborated by Newspoll, there’s more shocking numbers for Labor from Tasmania and Queensland, and the first national poll since the start of the week confirms an ongoing drift to the Coalition.

Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports the latest Nielsen poll, conducted from Sunday to Thursday from an unusually large sample of 2545, shows the Coalition leading 53-47, up from 52-48 in the previous poll a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 35%, the Coalition is up one to 47%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is down in the poll from 50-42 to 48-45. Rudd’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his approval down five to 43% and disapproval up four to 51%, while Abbott’s are stable with approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 52%. Full tables including state breakdowns from GhostWhoVotes.

Then there are these local polls:

• Yesterday’s Lonergan poll of Griffith just got a little less fanciful with Newspoll publishing a survey of 500 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which corroborates its finding on both two-party preferred (Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson leading Kevin Rudd 52-48) and the primary vote (48% for Glasson and 37% for Rudd).

• There is also a combined Newspoll result from 1382 respondents covering eight LNP-held Queensland marginals (Brisbane, Forde, Flynn, Longman, Herbert, Dawson, Fisher and Bonner) showing the LNP ahead 60-40, suggesting a swing of about 7.5%. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (compared with 36.5% in the relevant seats in 2010) and 54% for the LNP (45.6%), with Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister by 49-39.

• ReachTEL automated polls of about 550 respondents from each of Tasmania’s five seats show Labor with an insignificant 50.6-49.4 lead in Franklin and well behind in Bass (58.4-41.6), Braddon (56.6-43.4) and Lyons (55.8-44.2), with Andrew Wilkie looking set to romp home in Denison with 43.7% of the primary vote.

• Nielsen also has a question on best party to handle paid parental leave has Labor leading 49% to 37% among women and 45% on 42% among men. On this point, Laurie Oakes relates Labor internal polling from UMR Research showed the Liberal scheme had 34% approval and 45% disapproval on Thursday, which exactly reversed the numbers from polling conducted just four days earlier.

BludgerTrack has been updated with Nielsen and its attendant state breakdowns together with the ReachTEL results, and it finds no let-up in what for Labor is a terrifying linear trend to the Coalition which had lift-off shortly before the election was called. It finds Labor continuing to shed seats in New South Wales, and in negative territory for the first time in Western Australia. However, the BludgerTrack endeavour is being confounded somewhat by a disparity between national and local-level polling, of which the latter is not accommodated by the model – most conspicuously in Queensland, where the BludgerTrack projection of two gains for Labor is entirely out of whack with the impression given by the headline-grabbing local polls. As Kevin Bonham notes in comments, this echoes the presidential election when Barack Obama did much better in state polling than high-profile national polls, the former of which collectively proved nearer the mark.

Despite the American precedent, I would be very wary about concluding that the glut of electorate-level polling we’ve seen recently is more likely to be correct than the major national polls, which have long established and generally very good track records. This was particularly easy to argue when the overwhelming majority of the electorate polling had been of the automated rather than live interviewer variety. However, this gets a lot harder to square now that we have Newspoll conducting a very robust-looking survey of Queensland marginal seats pointing to a swing against Labor of over 7%. By contrast, state breakdowns from national polling persist in suggesting Labor is holding its ground or better in Queensland while the game slips away from them elsewhere.

To illustrate the point, here’s a list of the Labor two-party preferred results and swings indicated in recent polling of various kinds from Queensland. As noted, it’s only the statewide polling that’s going into BludgerTrack. All results from Newspoll, Galaxy and Nielsen are live interviewer phone polling, ReachTEL, Lonergan and JWS Research are automated, Essential is online and Morgan is “multi-mode” (face-to-face, online and SMS).

						SAMPLE	2PP	SWING
Griffith	ReachTEL	05/8		702	46	-4
Forde		ReachTEL	08/8		725	46	-3
Forde		Lonergan	15/8		1160	40	-9
Forde		JWS Research	15/8		568	40	-9
Brisbane	JWS Research	15/8		607	46	-3
Eight marginals	Newspoll	20/8		1382	40	-8
Griffith	Newspoll	22/8		500	48	-10
Griffith	Lonergan	21/8		958	48	-10
						
Statewide	Nielsen		7/8		280	47	+2
Statewide	Galaxy		8/8		800	44	-1
Statewide	Morgan		10/8		743	48	+3
Statewide	Newspoll	10-17/8		550	46	+1
Statewide	Morgan		17/8		876	46	+1
Statewide	Lonergan	18/8		345	48	+3
Statewide	Nielsen		20/8		504	45	0
Statewide	Essential	27/7-17/8	741	49	+4

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,577 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition; Newspoll: 52-48 to LNP in Griffith”

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  1. Confessions

    It will be interesting to watch how media types like Paul Murray spin an Abbott Government.

    If we look at the three key promises Less Debt, Lower Taxes Less Waste.

    But then no major cuts.

    Okay just how does that work. No Government based on current economic trends will deliver a surplus within the next term without major cuts or tax increases.

    Is there waste in the budget, sure there might be some programs and ineffective programs and processes, surely Tone would have some idea as to what they are and if they are waste as he thinks they are then just say what it is and shock horror people might agree.

  2. [Mike Carlton โ€@MikeCarlton01 44m
    Lots of tweets about @JulieBishopMP and her grotesque antics at the Lib policy launch. So-so Leagues club act, but Foreign Minister ?]

    I switched off after she’d been speaking for a minute or so. I can’t stand her at the best of times, let alone in full arrogant mode.

  3. Well after an LNP win, it will be interesting to see how many current journos actually have a job. I presume Mr Abbott will privatise ABC and SBS and also abolish cross media ownership rules, paving the way for a Gina/Murdoch duopoly in the media.

    How many fairfax/ABC journos will have a job after that?

  4. Davidwh

    Yes, if Rudd has a swing against him in his own seat then Labor can’t win really.

    I think Rudd will hold his seat and the real state of play is 53/47.

    Nielsen spot on ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Election day will probably be 53.8 to 46.2 – a heavy defeat.

  5. mexican:

    What they are promising with the budget is akin to what they proposed on broadband at the last election: not possible.

  6. Hilarious to hear one after the other Labor MP talk about the ‘cuts’ the LNP will make, while referring to their own ‘tough decisions’ a la the FBT.

  7. bemused – In opinion polls ALP voters even now prefer Gillard to Rudd, however amongst all Australians Rudd consistently leads Gillard

  8. bluepill @ 3475
    “Actually, George was a rather disillusioned socialist. Or havenโ€™t you read/understood โ€˜Animal Farmโ€™?”
    No he was a ‘true believer’ and anti-totalitarianism in any form …
    “In my opinion, nothing has contributed so much to the corruption of the original idea of socialism as the belief that Russia is a socialist country.”
    – The Collected Essays, Journalism, and Letters of George Orwell : As I please, 1943-1945 (1968)

  9. [you can implement the report and make the necessary changes to the Fair Work Act.

    It then becomes a matter of dispute as each Union goes into negotiations for the next round of pay rises etc.]

    If you are going to do that why bother support a test case in the FWC?. What I am saying is supporting a case and actually doing something destructive i.e. workchoices is quite different. This way abbitt can wimp out of the hard decisions and avoid a backlash.

  10. bluepill @ 3475,

    I didn’t expect you to respond so rudely when called out on your ignorance on the subject, but I now know better about how to discuss matters with you.

    As for my education, I completed my honours degree in Politics, Philosophy, and Sociology over twenty years ago. I have since also completed a Masters in Business Administration in which I was on the Dean’s List and then followed on to do a further postgraduate degree in Project Management. With one assignment and one exam to sit I will have my third post-graduate degree, this time in Tertiary and Adult Education. On-again and off-again I also have a PhD in Social Theory on the boil. I have, alas, recently dropped out of doing what was going to be my sixth degree, a postgraduate diploma in economics from the University of London.

    I have read (and understood) all of Eric Blair’s (aka George Orwell) main writings, whom I consider to one of the most important writers for my own political ideas (along with Martin Luther King, Hannah Arendt, and Jurgen Habermas). He was indeed extremely anti-Stalinist, and that was part of his inspiration for Animal Farm and, of course, 1984. He was an active member of the Independent Labour Party who were a very radical socialist and cooperativist version of their namesake and who continue to exist today as Independent Labour Publications, whom I keep in some contact with.

    Blair fought in the Spanish Civil War on the Republican side through a ILP international group, with POUM (Partido Obrero de Unificacion Marxista, or The Worker’s Party of Marxist Reunification). Indeed, it was his experience of how the Stalinists repressed the POUM group in Spain which inspired his texts against totalitarianism.

    “Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”

    None of this however suggests that he was ever a friend of the capitalist media, to return to your original comments. I rather feel that Eric Blair would be absolutely horrified by the way that the Murdoch Press operates and would certainly consider that it has breached moral if not indeed criminal standards of news gathering and reporting.

    I rather suspect that Eric Blair would want News Corp taken out of private hands – indeed, possibly even by revolutionary force – and the resources appropriated to become a democratic worker’s cooperative.

  11. FWIW I think there will be a stampede effect at the polls in QLD and NSW- similar to state election results. I think a 57-43 in NSW and 60-40 in QLD wont be too far off. The seat level polling and state level will end up meeting there. I suspect there is a slight bias to the city on polling qld. Its the only logical reason i can think of.

  12. Yes, Centre.

    The best Annabel has done.

    The cat claw action which introduces the Drum.

    Perhaps Annabel’s finest hour.

  13. I suspect Dr Fumbles is right, its sometimes easier to let a precedent be set then change the law to suit rather than set the law first.

    If the court decision receives wide ranging criticism the Government then has the option of making itself look good by stepping in and declaring it a bad decision and passing a law to overturn the court ruling.

  14. I suspect Abbott will get a very, very long honeymoon from the media, until his budget razor gang announces they are gutting the ABC & SBS.
    And what is the price Murdoch will exact for supporting Abbott in his newspapers?

  15. C’mon I’m getting YAWNMENT waiting for Newspoll.

    How good are the top 4 in Rugby League?

    Even Melbourne are better than last year in my view. The Bulldogs are a distant 5th.

    The Roosters, Bunnies, Storm and Manly – WOW what a final series.

    The best ever it is shaping to be ๐Ÿ˜Ž

  16. Watching tonight’s latest round of negative Liberal advertising, I noticed Hockey trumpeting the benefits of cutting funding to the Clean Energy Corporation.
    Hello…….wasn’t Sloppy Joe once upon a time a believer in an ETS?

  17. Simon Baker@3512

    bemused โ€“ In opinion polls ALP voters even now prefer Gillard to Rudd, however amongst all Australians Rudd consistently leads Gillard

    I am an ALP member and meet quite a lot of other ALP members and supporters. I simply state what I am encountering.

    Please provide a reference to any recent poll which shows what you claim.

  18. The problem is, we don’t have a clear history, nor the same history of places like the United States… last year, state by state polling was out of whack with national polling, which had Romney ahead, but elections like 1996 and 2000 teach you to trust the state polls.

    We don’t have that history, and we’ve had some genuinely shocking results at the electorate-level. Although a UK friend of mine says ‘constituency-level polling is almost always full of problems and actually much harder to weight’.

    Long story short, I don’t think we’re actually going to have a bloody clue what things are going to look like, until they’ve actually happened. The LNP is ahead and will probably win… that’s all I’m comfortable in saying.

  19. Lev,

    I agree. I can’t think of any of Orwell’s major works that support the rule of the few.

    Animal Farm is a powerful indictment.

  20. Its fascinating. The election hasn’t been held. Messiah Kev hasn’t conceded. Yet the ALP drones are ruminating about how the media will behave after the election ? What if the ALP does win ? What do you think the ALP will do with Kevin’s ego ?

  21. morpheus

    Thanks for calling me a drone, i look forward to our future discussions on the performance of an Abbott Government.

    If it is a good Government i will be the first to congratulate it but only time will tell.

  22. Seriously, both side have absolutely pathetic political ads. Hockey shouldn’t be anywhere near a TV and that old lady looks like she is selling tea (and BTW, she is saying that in ‘her’ day there was no PPL, does she mean she is against the ALP $2B version also ?)

  23. Morpheus

    any truth in the rumour that Abbott is going to “bone” Joe Hockey as Treasurer? Not just his poor performance, but Part of a deal with Malcolm I hear.

  24. Labor will be hoping like hell that if they lose, Krudd loses his seat – otherwise they will be in a right mess as under his new rules, it will take 65% of causcus to kick him out.

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