The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate update incorporates findings from no fewer than six national opinion polls which have emerged over the past 48 hours, with published two-party preferred figures ranging from 50-50 to 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The latter figure happened to come from the highest profile name in the game, Newspoll, and was derived from an enlarged sample of 1676. Newspoll was one of two live interview phone polls out of the bunch, the other being the comparably authoritative (to my mind at least) Galaxy, which had the Coalition lead at 52-48. The others used different methods, and on balance had more favourable results for Labor. The weekly Morgan “multi-mode” poll, combining face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, had the Coalition leading 51-49 on its headline figure. However, this was derived from respondent-allocated preferences, the generally more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the previous election result concurring with Galaxy in having it at 52-48. Like Newspoll, this came from a larger than usual sample of 4515. Also on 52-48 was an automated phone poll of 1676 respondents from Lonergan, a new outfit whose managing director Chris Lonergan was formerly a research director at Galaxy, and previously worked at Newspoll and Roy Morgan.
The best results of all for Labor were both 50-50, and both came from online pollsters: the well-established Essential Research (976 respondents from this week, with the published figure being a two-week rolling average) and relative newcomer AMR Research (1134 respondents), which to my knowledge has now conducted three national polls. Throwing all these numbers into the trend and applying the usual weights and bias adjustments, BludgerTrack comes out at 52.6-47.4 in the Coalition’s favour, the general picture being that the Coalition has gained at or near 1% over three consecutive weeks. The state projections find Labor stubbornly clinging to its swing in Western Australia despite a general perception that the best it can hope for there is to gain the seat of Hasluck, and that even that looks doubtful.
The following is a very random aggregation of electorate-level snippets that I’ll shortly be using to update the Poll Bludger seat-by-seat election guide. See also the post below for reviews of the regional Victorian seats of Mallee and Indi.
Brisbane (Liberal National 1.1%): Laura Tingle of the Financial Review wrote at the start of the campaign that “both sides presume Teresa Gambaro’s seat of Brisbane will fall to Labor” (with two other Liberal National Party seats, Longman and Bonner, said to be “at risk”). That presumption has almost certainly faded since then, but Kevin Rudd has likely had half an eye on the seat in seeking to elevate same-sex marriage as an election issue. Patricia Karvelas of The Australian reports that Australian Marriage Equality has distributed 70,000 flyers in the electorate calling on Gambaro to declare her support.
Bennelong (Liberal 3.1%): Kevin Rudd has twice visited the seat famously lost by John Howard in 2007 and Maxine McKew in 2010, evidently hoping that his popularity among the electorate’s many Asian voters will lead to a boilover. During the first of these visits he promised to make Korean a priority language for the national curriculum. Labor’s candidate for the seat is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a businessman and high-profile figure in the Chinese community. In 1998 he ran as the lead Senate candidate of the Unity party, which was established to combat the rise of Pauline Hanson.
Bass (Labor 6.7%): Labor MP Geoff Lyons last week said he was “sincerely sorry• for telling an assembly of high school students that his Liberal opponent, Andrew Nikolic, has “misled” journalists about his role in the military. Lyons had claimed Nikolic had been a “bureaucrat” in Canberra for the last 25 years, a period encompassing his tenure as deputy commander of Australian forces in the early days of the Afghanistan war and commander in southern Iraq in 2005.
Solomon (Country Liberal 1.8%): Kevin Rudd last week made a contentious bid for support in the Darwin-based electorate by promising that within five years a “northern economic zone” would be established in the Territory, to which businesses would be lured through a corporate tax rate a third lower than the rest of the country. This looked notably similar to an idea the Coalition had floated earlier in the year with encouragement from Gina Rinehart, which had Lindsay MP David Bradbury contemplating “gold-plated footpaths in Karratha while people are stuck in gridlock in Sydney”. In a radio interview the following morning, Bill Shorten had to concede that the announcement had been news to him.
Macquarie (Liberal 1.3%): On August 10, Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Liberal internal polling had the party gravely concerned about Louise Markus’s outer Sydney seat. As the report noted, Labor candidate Susan Templeman has been “conspicuous in Mr Rudd’s western Sydney campaign events”.
Hindmarsh (Labor 6.1%): Samantha Maiden of News Limited reported on Sunday that strategists from both parties expected this western Adelaide seat to fall to the Liberals, despite Labor member Steve Georganas’s solid margin. The report quoted a Labor strategist saying of South Australia: “If any seat is likely to fall it is Hindmarsh. The older voters and the Greeks don’t like the same-sex marriage stuff.” Internal polling was also said to have had the Liberals hoping to take Wakefield from Labor’s Nick Champion (margin 10.5%), with Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide (7.5%) and Tony Zappia’s seat of Makin (12.0%) “less likely to fall but still in play”.
Dobell (Labor 5.1%): Troy Bramston of The Australian reported on August 12 that Labor polling conducted at the end of July had them leading 55-45, with Craig Thomson recording a primary vote of 6%, but that the party was “more pessimistic now”. The contest has become slightly more complicated still with the entry of former test cricketer Nathan Bracken as an independent, running with financial support from colourful advertising mogul John Singleton.
Kennedy (Independent 18.3% versus Liberal National): Labor made a late substitution in Bob Katter’s seat after its initial candidate, Ken Robertson, was deemed to have gone overboard in accusing Tony Abbott of being a racist who wanted a return to the White Australian Policy. The new candidate is project engineer Andrew Turnour.
davidwh,
Don’t be bashful: what word would you use?
sprocket @ 947
Do you know how their ABC reported it?
They said that Liberal decided to “let” Labor have a seat 😡
AA wants me to comment on why there was a total of 1500 illegal arrivals over 6 years under the Coalition.
It’s a stupid question. 450 were on the Tampa.
A few hundred came immediately after until the word got out about the Pacific Solution.
Between 2002-2007 boat arrivals averaged about 70 a year.
We’ve had more than 2000 in the last 3 weeks under Rudd the Dudds PNG Solution.
Tisme
Rudd has practically stopped the boats.
Are you a racist?
PM Abbott meets the Persident and First Lady “Mr President umm I think I can ummm say the First Lady has sex appeal”.
Centre,
You said Rudd the Dudds PNG Solution would work. Why are you wrong all the time??
Heres a little questionaire for you:
1. How many illegals have arrived in the last 3 weeks under Rudd the Dudds PNG Plan??
2. How many illegals has Rudd the Dudd actually sent to PNG??
3. Didn’t Rudd the Dudd promise everyone would go to PNG??
4. What percentage of the people under Howards Pacific Solution went to Manus or Nauru?
5. Do you think the people smugglers and their cargo are completely stupid and can’t tell Rudd the Dudd and Labor like their last 6 plans are 99% talk 1% action?
davidwh,
He did get that one right.
david
Abbott visits Guantanamo ……
Re: Brisbane Leaders Forum Wed. 6 pm
Murdoch tabloids’ pollster-of-choice, Galaxy, will once more select a pro-Abbott audience including, as at Rooty Hill forum, Liberal Party official asking a “gotcha”.
Afterward, Galaxy will plead they were hoodwinked, pressure of time, the dog ate their list of “genuine” undecideds”, etc.
Let’s just hope no main commercial channnel other than 7Two
accepts Foxtel’s offer to broadcast the feed. Of course, ABC-24 would never pass up such a golden opportunity to give Labor another kick in the guts.
PM Rudd’s knowlege of policies, intelligence and debate skills are futile going up against Galaxy’s audience-selection ratbaggery, the whole FoxNews USA playbook of audio/visual skullduggery and a Murdoch Minion moderator.
Abbott is what Americans would call a ‘Jock’ – in the derogatively stereotypical sense of the term: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jock_(athlete)
6.Why does a fair dinkum concerned Aussie say mommy?
Sean Tisme
Posted Tuesday, August 20, 2013 at 9:29 pm | Permalink
AA wants me to comment on why there was a total of 1500 illegal arrivals over 6 years under the Coalition.
It’s a stupid question. 450 were on the Tampa.
A few hundred came immediately after until the word got out about the Pacific Solution.
Between 2002-2007 boat arrivals averaged about 70 a year.
——————————————————–
1500 minus 450 = 1050 minus 420 @70 per year for 6 years
leaves 630 unaccounted for in your figures
[Re: Brisbane Leaders Forum Wed. 6 pm]
Kevvie chance to go full bore; if he has the guts.
A few “Listen, sunshine”s would not go astray.
Dio
[Looks like you can be fined for staying silent.]
That’s not how I read it. You can be fined for not attending or not handing over documents, but it seems you can attend but say nothing.
paaptsef@961
He doesn’t.
I actually feel that Rudd started finding his mark over the last few days. Reminding me much more of the campaigning we saw in 2007. That’s the Rudd who has to come out tomorrow. Remember, not that many people will actually watch, so he needs to put Abbott under pressure and hit with good lines that will be reported. If he can squeeze some nervous moments from Abbott, all the better. Having them both on stage together will suit Rudd far more than if they had stuck with the 2010 format imho.
mmm interesting about penalty rates…so the people who work on Sundays are usually students? So with less income will they be able to afford university? Will shops start to close because students refuse to give up their hung over Sundays for a pittance? Aussie retailers are such greedy pigs.Overpriced with terrible service
[so he needs to put Abbott under pressure and hit with good lines that will be reported.]
You mean like Pyne’s non-appearance at the NPC will be reported?
triton
[That’s not how I read it. You can be fined for not attending or not handing over documents, but it seems you can attend but say nothing.]
Then it’s highly unlikely that Dank would say anything given his comments about ASADA.
Once again, we see what a shambles the process is when kangaroo “courts” like the AFL and FWA take on major allegations. They just aren’t up to it.
Ducky,
The only way for PMKR to salvage this Forum “Charge of the Light Brigade” mission is, as you said, “to go full bore”, —–at least the main news bulletins’ soundbite clips can’t be as damaging.
SkyNews camera tricks in 2010 made Abbott look like Filet Mignon and PMJG look like cheap mince.
[so the people who work on Sundays are usually students?]
Are they?
‘When asked about abolishing penalty rates at a Liberal Party organised forum in Kingston, South Australia, Mr Abbott indicated he believed the only way to bring this about would be for a Federal government to pressure the independent umpire to strip back penalty rates.’
Bad move, I would think.
[You mean like Pyne’s non-appearance at the NPC will be reported?]
Was there a press club debate today? I’ve seen nothing about it in tonight’s news.
Ducky 957 very true but it still would be inappropriate.
‘Aussie retailers are such greedy pigs.
Overpriced with terrible service’.
Quite.
Terrible service could be equated with being dead on one’s feet. Toilet breaks, frowned upon and doled out.
Caro on 3aw tonight reckons there is now a split bw the club and the 4 charged. She reckons the club wants to deal so that any penalties are out of the way before 2014. Thus the club will not play finals and this will be accepted by the club. The extra time requested by the club is to enable this deal to be negotiated behind the scenes. Is the AFLs m.o if you look at recent history.
Hird and the other 3 can fight thier own battles after that.
She wont put pen to paper on this, just her gut feel based on who she has been talking to, and what she has been told.
I wish.
taylormade
Abbotts PPL is actually the worst form of middle class welfare ever proposed and all at a time of budget emergency. it is worse than FTB B and the Baby Bonus which paid the same amount regardless of income. the PPL pays more to you if you earn more. truly staggering when they claim to be the superior economic managers. it will not see the light of day.
Good evening
Confessions it is worth watching the NPC today Shorten was on fire. Especially during the question period.
Sean – I have ventured some answers to your questions. Centre may or may not wish to respond to you.
1. How many illegals have arrived in the last 3 weeks under Rudd
the DuddsPNG Plan?? None. It is not illegal to seek asylum.2. How many illegals has Rudd
the Duddactually sent to PNG?? None. It is not illegal to seek asylum.3. Didn’t Rudd the Dudd promise everyone would go to PNG?? In due course.
4. What percentage of the people under Howards Pacific Solution went to Manus or Nauru? I don’t know – since you ask I’m sure it’s a number that makes your case look good. But the Pacific Solution will not work now whoever’s in charge. And no crap about TPVs – they didn’t work.
5. Do you think the people smugglers and their cargo are completely stupid and can’t tell Rudd
the Duddand Labor like their last 6 plans are 99% talk 1% action? People smugglers are liars. As long as they can get their money they don’t care. As for their clients, to the extent that they follow Australian politics, they are not necessarily rusted on Liberals like your good self.I should not comment.
Taking up far too much blah tonight.
But yes, Spectator.
Sean Tisme
If you contend that Labor’s PNG solution does not work then you have to fall back to the Greens position that deterrence does not work.
Denying residence and citizenship is the ultimate deterrent as it makes the dangerous journey a waste of time.
taylormade,
You have read The Chrysalids?
You can get the progress on the womens cricket http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/current/match/593723.html
@ALeighMP: Tomorrow, it will be a week since the Liberals have put any transcripts on their website http://t.co/YEme9PBZem #gospeltruth #hockeynomics
[Jack Sumner @preciouspress 1m
@sspencer_63 @TheKouk It is interesting to note how much bookies are holding on this. Betfair is at $ 2,869,684 which isn’t a huge amount.]
as I said before, the ASX turns over $4-6 billion a day, which is 2000% what shitty Betafir is holding on the whole election.
and people believe this stuff!
TLBD #983 – that is spooky: I re-read it today before giving it away to Vinnies
xclent sprocket
guytaur:
I’m staggered that it hasn’t been reported.
A Q&A with a cabinet minister would normally be ignored at the best of times, but in an election campaign? Unbelievable.
It is dark and cold in my tiny hovel.
Please, please not the scarey stuff!
Forgot to shutup.
@DrCraigEmerson: .@SimonBanksHB Seems @TonyAbbottMHR feels he has the self-funded retiree vote all sewn up, so he can make them pay for his extravagant PPL.
confessions
Sadly I am not.
Must say though.
Sent the Business Spectator article to my Lib friend.
She is again outraged.
As a self fundee.
Meanwhile in the UK
@ewenmacaskill: Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger says order to destroy Snowden material came from 10 Downing Street. http://t.co/VEzK1H10AO
The PMO appears not to issue anything now. Andrew Leigh was red hot on the coalition’s failings. Rudd and Andrew’s replacement big-time fail!
Kevvie has replaced the workers with dwellers.
If Labor loses I’ll be in the long line waiting to dance on his grave.
Signing off.
Oh dear.
[Nathan Thomas @MrPinkCarpet 3h
At the Warringah candidate discussion and Arthur sinodinos is representing Tony Abbott and he has been heckled. This has never happened b4]
Night ducky.
Until.
sprocket@986
More like 200,000% (2,000 times Betfair’s holding).
Got the impression from tonight’s news someone might have told Rudd to fire up more and show more passion.