BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Coalition

Six new national polls have emerged over the past few days, animating much discussion about the relative merits of the various polling methodologies on offer.

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate update incorporates findings from no fewer than six national opinion polls which have emerged over the past 48 hours, with published two-party preferred figures ranging from 50-50 to 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The latter figure happened to come from the highest profile name in the game, Newspoll, and was derived from an enlarged sample of 1676. Newspoll was one of two live interview phone polls out of the bunch, the other being the comparably authoritative (to my mind at least) Galaxy, which had the Coalition lead at 52-48. The others used different methods, and on balance had more favourable results for Labor. The weekly Morgan “multi-mode” poll, combining face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, had the Coalition leading 51-49 on its headline figure. However, this was derived from respondent-allocated preferences, the generally more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the previous election result concurring with Galaxy in having it at 52-48. Like Newspoll, this came from a larger than usual sample of 4515. Also on 52-48 was an automated phone poll of 1676 respondents from Lonergan, a new outfit whose managing director Chris Lonergan was formerly a research director at Galaxy, and previously worked at Newspoll and Roy Morgan.

The best results of all for Labor were both 50-50, and both came from online pollsters: the well-established Essential Research (976 respondents from this week, with the published figure being a two-week rolling average) and relative newcomer AMR Research (1134 respondents), which to my knowledge has now conducted three national polls. Throwing all these numbers into the trend and applying the usual weights and bias adjustments, BludgerTrack comes out at 52.6-47.4 in the Coalition’s favour, the general picture being that the Coalition has gained at or near 1% over three consecutive weeks. The state projections find Labor stubbornly clinging to its swing in Western Australia despite a general perception that the best it can hope for there is to gain the seat of Hasluck, and that even that looks doubtful.

The following is a very random aggregation of electorate-level snippets that I’ll shortly be using to update the Poll Bludger seat-by-seat election guide. See also the post below for reviews of the regional Victorian seats of Mallee and Indi.

Brisbane (Liberal National 1.1%): Laura Tingle of the Financial Review wrote at the start of the campaign that “both sides presume Teresa Gambaro’s seat of Brisbane will fall to Labor” (with two other Liberal National Party seats, Longman and Bonner, said to be “at risk”). That presumption has almost certainly faded since then, but Kevin Rudd has likely had half an eye on the seat in seeking to elevate same-sex marriage as an election issue. Patricia Karvelas of The Australian reports that Australian Marriage Equality has distributed 70,000 flyers in the electorate calling on Gambaro to declare her support.

Bennelong (Liberal 3.1%): Kevin Rudd has twice visited the seat famously lost by John Howard in 2007 and Maxine McKew in 2010, evidently hoping that his popularity among the electorate’s many Asian voters will lead to a boilover. During the first of these visits he promised to make Korean a priority language for the national curriculum. Labor’s candidate for the seat is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a businessman and high-profile figure in the Chinese community. In 1998 he ran as the lead Senate candidate of the Unity party, which was established to combat the rise of Pauline Hanson.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Labor MP Geoff Lyons last week said he was “sincerely sorry• for telling an assembly of high school students that his Liberal opponent, Andrew Nikolic, has “misled” journalists about his role in the military. Lyons had claimed Nikolic had been a “bureaucrat” in Canberra for the last 25 years, a period encompassing his tenure as deputy commander of Australian forces in the early days of the Afghanistan war and commander in southern Iraq in 2005.

Solomon (Country Liberal 1.8%): Kevin Rudd last week made a contentious bid for support in the Darwin-based electorate by promising that within five years a “northern economic zone” would be established in the Territory, to which businesses would be lured through a corporate tax rate a third lower than the rest of the country. This looked notably similar to an idea the Coalition had floated earlier in the year with encouragement from Gina Rinehart, which had Lindsay MP David Bradbury contemplating “gold-plated footpaths in Karratha while people are stuck in gridlock in Sydney”. In a radio interview the following morning, Bill Shorten had to concede that the announcement had been news to him.

Macquarie (Liberal 1.3%): On August 10, Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Liberal internal polling had the party gravely concerned about Louise Markus’s outer Sydney seat. As the report noted, Labor candidate Susan Templeman has been “conspicuous in Mr Rudd’s western Sydney campaign events”.

Hindmarsh (Labor 6.1%): Samantha Maiden of News Limited reported on Sunday that strategists from both parties expected this western Adelaide seat to fall to the Liberals, despite Labor member Steve Georganas’s solid margin. The report quoted a Labor strategist saying of South Australia: “If any seat is likely to fall it is Hindmarsh. The older voters and the Greeks don’t like the same-sex marriage stuff.” Internal polling was also said to have had the Liberals hoping to take Wakefield from Labor’s Nick Champion (margin 10.5%), with Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide (7.5%) and Tony Zappia’s seat of Makin (12.0%) “less likely to fall but still in play”.

Dobell (Labor 5.1%): Troy Bramston of The Australian reported on August 12 that Labor polling conducted at the end of July had them leading 55-45, with Craig Thomson recording a primary vote of 6%, but that the party was “more pessimistic now”. The contest has become slightly more complicated still with the entry of former test cricketer Nathan Bracken as an independent, running with financial support from colourful advertising mogul John Singleton.

Kennedy (Independent 18.3% versus Liberal National): Labor made a late substitution in Bob Katter’s seat after its initial candidate, Ken Robertson, was deemed to have gone overboard in accusing Tony Abbott of being a racist who wanted a return to the White Australian Policy. The new candidate is project engineer Andrew Turnour.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Coalition”

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  1. I don’t know if the fiery approach and asking the audience questions will work, but Rudd has to do something. Just don’t let him advance to the chanting stage, à la the Hewson rallies in 1993.

  2. [quote]I observed only the other day that there seem to be more right-leaning candidates this election than in the past. If their preferences all lead (however round-a-bout) back to the coalition, then that an Abbott-controlled Senate is a real possibility.[/quote]

    Katter’s made deals with Labor. So I doubt it.

  3. Bowen performed pretty well last night, and I like the way he “laughed” at Hockey’s lies and prevarications. The only time I felt he faded was when asked about the future cost of Education and NDIS.

    The ideal answer, instead of wtte “it’s all been laid out”, would have been to say “It’s in the Treasury statements, Jo, haven’t you read them.”

    And he missed accusing Coalition of keeping the Education money but spending it on private schools.

  4. confessions

    An Abbott government, a friendly Senate and Pauline Hanson is about as horrifying a nightmare as I can think of. A few weeks ago the Senate was supposedly safe.

  5. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/19/economy/retirees-will-pay-paid-parental-leave-scheme

    chunk of Tony Abbott’s parental leave scheme will be paid for by retirees and those saving to retire.

    The slug to retirees has been engineered by the Coalition backroom and joins the Reserve Bank’s lower interest rate drive in the inter-generational attack game, which the older generation is losing.

    That fact that very few media outlets picked up the fact that retirees and those saving for retirement would pay a slice of the parental leave bill shows that the inter-generational game is not widely understood.

    Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/19/economy/retirees-will-pay-paid-parental-leave-scheme#ixzz2cSLmOad0

  6. lizzie:

    Jones, despite looking promising early on, just allowed the moderation to unravel. He allowed constant interjections from Hockey, and on several occasions forgot to go back to Bowen to allow him to refute.

    My own view is that Labor are too polite in these formats. I hope in opposition that they develop a bit of a more muscular approach to media interviews.

  7. Perhaps Labor Staffers have been reading this blog over the past few days….

    [Latika Bourke
    PM Rudd – Tony Abbott’s Paid Parental Leave gives select group of families $75k while taking away schoolkids bonus. #AusVotes]

  8. Hockeynomics at work.

    [The difference, he insisted, would be met by a combination of four factors: the government would not have to pay as much in family tax benefits because women would retain their full salaries; women would pay income tax on their replacement salaries; the government would save money by scrapping Labor’s less expensive scheme; and state governments would compensate the Commonwealth for meeting their parental leave liability.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalitions-lack-of-detail-on-cost-is-damning-20130819-2s7e7.html#ixzz2cSMwKgkI

  9. Re Q & A Last night, there was a range of opinion on who won in here.

    Both Hockey and Bowen got booed last night and both of them were cheered. Hockey in my opinion got more cheers and more punches in. For example

    Bowen was saying the Liberals planned to issue costing on the last days of the Campaign and Hockey said that is what you did in 2007. Bowen had no comeback.

    Bowen was using the scare campaign on what new taxes will be there, and Hockey used the like the Carbon tax line, which drew a large applause

    I have been watching Q&A for a while and the audience is definitely to the left of Australian politics, most Coalition MPs get booed. The facts that Hockey got as much cheers from the audience as Bowen (if not more) showed that he won the debate

  10. confessions
    [My own view is that Labor are too polite in these formats.]

    Agree 100%. But if they get aggressive, it’s “bullies” – there’s nothing to beat a little projection by the Libs 🙁

  11. [Latika Bourke
    PM Rudd – our priorities are a fair go for everyone. Mr Abbott’s priority is $75 in paid parental leave for some. #AusVotes]

  12. The school kids bonus should be taken away, is just a waste of money not linked to any education outcomes bar in the name. You could pay for Gonski in full by taking the bonus away from family’s.

  13. Dovif

    Your assertion on partisanship on the part of the audience is BS. QandA gives out the make up of its audience unlike most television shows.

  14. dovif

    I have also watched every QandA since it began. The sessions always start with a gotcha question against Labor. The audience is normally chosen to match the latest Polls, which means a majority of Coalition voters.

    And they don’t cheer and boo. They clap, sometimes laugh.

    The Carbon Tax line is an obvious stupidity that draws in the Coalition crowd. Dumbclucks.

  15. Yes, senior liberals behave on q&a in a way that would cause me to smack my children if they were ever that rude to others.

    And I don’t believe in corporal punishment.

    Poor behavior modeling for the nations young people. That is not how you engage in civil democratic deliberation.

  16. A follow up to that Rupert Murdoch tweet

    “@Rob_Stott: Australian-born, US citizen with two half-Chinese children @rupertmurdoch doesn’t like multiculturalism”

  17. lefty e

    The non-political guests on QandA often have no chance to speak because of this rudeness. Next week we shall have a typical example in Kelly O’Bigmouth. Last week it was Pyne.

    And people VOTE for them?

  18. That’s right mysay. Press seem to have missed that retirees are paying for well off mums to get more than working mums and farmers.

  19. There must be countless worthier ways to spend money than maintaining a mother’s fat pay packet under Abbott’s PPL. If it can avoid another class warfare attack, Labor could put together some comparisons. The NDIS, which is not yet fully funded, would be a good place to start.

  20. Wow, so much for being a ‘superb campaigner’.. I think Rudd is very much not used to being on the back foot.

    His approach has always been risk-averse, from the very first consideration of a tilt in 2004 against Beazley (ultimately won by Latham), then the safe-as-houses ticket with Gillard against Beazley in 2006, then every leadership challenge since 2010. Rudd doesn’t like to stand if there is a possibility he may lose.

    This time was his Alamo. He is looking tired, rattled and confused. His speech is shrill, strident and sounding more and more panicked. The view that Abbott will behave in an extreme manner is not resounding with voters, because it would be political folly for someone who has shown himself to be excellent in the art of annihilating poll support for Labor leaders.

    In contrast, people know that Abbott will be a very predictable, even boring, conservative leader. The coalition will probably win but it will not be a landslide and the public can’t swallow the Rudd notion that Abbott will squeeze into government just to roll out deep cuts, work choices again, raise the GST and legislate extreme austerity measures. It is just not a credible scenario. The next poll would be a slaughter for the coalition.

    No, Tony will probably do exactly as he says he will do, have a very predictable government, make modest improvements to the federal economic position and probably no changes to social legislation aside from recognising the indigenous in our constitution. Its biggest problem next election will be selling itself as a big reformer.. which it can’t afford to be and will struggle to sell.

    Meanwhile, Kevin’s strident screams are falling on ears with headphones on probably listening to Timomatic instead….The fat lady is doing vocal warm ups as we speak..

  21. I feel things are turning out there.

    Rudd’s coming back. He’s got a good team too.

    No silly NT stuff – big picture, vision, no cuts

  22. Morning All

    Rummel while I agree the School kids bonus should be used to pay for Gonski instead – parents can indeed use the money for whatever they want but in the end it makes it easier to pay their school bills. i.e. it’s fungible and will be missed I’m sure

    Bowen was pretty good last night, he should’ve copped it sweet and admitted he couldn’t remember the cost of years 5 and 6 of Gonski though, was a bad look to try and avoid the question.

    Hockey was ordinary again, good to see he is finally get called out on some of his lies and half truths

    Polling is interesting at the moment, there is no way that Newspoll is right. I was hoping Nielsen would go weekly as well but it seems not

    Looks like the Bombers thing will drag into next season now as well, dumb dumd dumb – Kennett was right, boot them until it’s sorted

    Anyways, back to work today – bring on day whatever we’re up to – have fun all

  23. confessions

    Posted Tuesday, August 20, 2013 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    triton:

    That is just depressing. Pauline Hanson returning to parliament?

    Honestly!
    —————————————————-

    As a Liberal??

    They have moved so far to the right they are occupying One Nation space. She would in well with them these days.

  24. “@GMegalogenis: “@rupertmurdoch: Conviction politicians hard to find anywhere. Australia’s Tony Abbott rare exception.” Didn’t know he had convict heritage.”

  25. guytaur

    I shall look forward to it. To see her gagged by someone with a brain, who doesn’t speak in learned gotchas, will be a great pleasure 🙂

  26. For those who enjoy his/her commentary, the Piping Shrike on Labor’s campaign failures:

    [Labor has correctly honed in on the Liberals’ coyness about its costings as a sign that the Liberals are planning unpopular cuts after the election. The problem is that Labor hasn’t said why they want to make the cuts. Without drawing out that they are more likely to be driven by ideology than what is sensible for the economy, the voters are left with the impression that it is the latter.

    Being evasive about cuts needed to fix the economy so as to win an election may not be ideal, but it is certainly preferable to what Labor seems to be doing, namely throwing money around to win an election even if it may not do the economy much good. In going around putting money behind its “positive plans”, Labor looks to be doing precisely the “reckless spending” that Rudd caught Howard out in 2007.

    Labor started the economic debate well, shifting the discussion to an economy in transition. But with little but anodyne plans for “diversifying and productivity” it has nowhere to go but to attack the Coalition’s ideological agenda, which like all ideology, is incapable of coping with change. Yet in failing to make its anti-political attack on the Coalition, Labor is seeing it rebound and they being the “political” (if non-ideological) operators. If running the country on the basis of ideology is annoying, operating on the basis of political expediency, as Rudd already learned when he dumped the ETS in 2010, is even more so.]

    http://www.pipingshrike.com/2013/08/momentum.html

  27. just very quickly on the way out – people should remember the only reason we got the school kids bonus was that the LNP wouldn’t back the company tax cut linked to the mining tax

  28. Last nights QandA was easily a win for Bowen. He got plenty of applause from the audience.

    The only real applause of significance for Hockey was when he trotted the carbon “tax” lie.

    People were continually heckling him over not releasing costings

  29. [victoria
    Posted Tuesday, August 20, 2013 at 8:39 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    I should add that you are stating that abolishing the school kids bonus would fund Gonski in its entirety]

    No I don’t and I used “in full” rather audaciously. However $400-$800 per student extra into GONSKI is better then into POKIES.

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