ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,822 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49”

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  1. Carey
    [Maybe arrest the opposition too?]
    Love your style! Whatever Erdogan and al-Sisi can do, Oz can do better. And they can go down the follow-up path of arresting newspaper editors. PB alone has 100 vounteers for apprehending Murdoch & Fairfax & ABC chiefs. Wow, I’m sure that’d get Rudd back to 49-51 or even 50-50.

  2. triton@15

    It’s shocking that Abbott leads on PPM, but there’s still a huge difference from Newspoll (Abbott was slightly ahead on the last ReachTEL too). Do they ask the same question?

    They handle the answers differently. ReachTEL disallows “don’t know” as an option. Leads to massive differences in result. So in a ReachTEL if you get an LO up 53-47 in a 53-47 poll it’s nothing that unusual. If you got the same from any other poll it would be very odd indeed.

  3. How is labor going to stop the pro coalition media from winning

    What has labor got to lose , they might well fight the media

    Take thier license if they do not report netural

  4. Alias – While growth has slowed, unemployment was unchanged last week and interest rates cut and Australia is still doing better than most of the West. Rudd will still need a good performance in tomorrow’s debate though to get momentum back

  5. Negative works when it is the truth. It fails when it is not

    Negative needs to be credible in the minds of those who receive it. It doesn’t have to be true. I remember the ‘Capital Gains Tax on the Family Home’ in the 1980 election.

    Abbott has no credible plan to fund tens of billions in promises. He is vulnerable on the GST and European style austerity cuts. Maybe also a cherry-pick the IPA’s 100 point plan.

  6. Kevin Bonham
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:34 pm | PERMALINK
    t So in a ReachTEL if you get an LO up 53-47 in a 53-47 poll it’s nothing that unusual. If you got the same from any other poll it would be very odd indeed.

    ————-

    How can it be counted as a credible poll then

  7. Any one can find negative stuff on most politicians. This has been a nine month election campaign that the voting public are sick of. Bring on full blown negative and see what happens. Especially as Rudd uses the word negative to describe the other side and paints himself as positive in every presser.

  8. This poll is surely nothing to get too excited about. ReachTel has always seemed to have a slight Coalition bias, so presumably this is on a par with Nielsen’s 52-48. Nothing particularly significant has happened in the campaign since Nielsen was in the field, so there’s really no reason for things to change much.

    That said, if we are to believe the Nielsen-ReachTel suggestion that there is an emerging disenchantment with Ruddstoration, then that’s a worry. It’s been my concern that the public might suddenly twig to what a complete and utter phony Rudd is. It might be happening now: he’s given them every chance with his reversal of his past principles on boat people.

    But I’m probably worrying too much. I still find myself encountering fans of the bloke, albeit among the least well-educated people I know (I cannot think of one person whom I know with a tertiary education who didn’t prefer Gillard. Interesting that.)

  9. alias, a GST scare campaign requires two things: that a GST rise is scary and that voters will believe the LNP intend to raise it. The latter is the problem, not the former and trying to convince voters could well backfire on the ALP.

  10. Rather than blame the polling entities that are relentlessly telling the truth (anyone who says otherwise is a wearer of aluminium fascinators), the focus should be to ascertain what it is that has stalled the resurgence. Maybe there is nothing specific to blame. Could be just recognition of ‘more of the same’ from Labor after implications of a change.

  11. Centrebet (= sportingbet?) $5.75/$1.14. This equates to bookies’ perceived probabilities, allowing for their margins, of about 15% Rudd, 85% Abbott. And 0% for Palmer or Katter or Hanson for those interested.

  12. ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:38 pm | PERMALINK

    It isn’t.

    ——————-

    Exactly , reason why opinion polling the way its conducted should be stopped

    there is no defence for it

  13. Pithicus
    [Abbott. the reptillian covert narcissist preffered prime minister? Something is seriously wrong here.]
    Have you noticed who his opponent is?

  14. Yes Simon Baker. A good debate performance from Rudd is crucial. Unfortunately, when it comes to the expectations game, Abbott can emerge triumphant merely be failing to make a gaffe. I’m not being negative; rather realistic.

    I hope Rudd can become more relaxed. More the Rudd who turned up on TV screens straight after his restoration. Lately (as with Leigh Sales) he’s been slightly testy.

    If he can appear relaxed, confident, upbeat – and with his winning smile on display as much of the time as possible – it is just a case of waiting for Abbott to trip up, to show his true colours, to remind everyone of why they doubt the guy so much.

    Whoever it was on the last page who said it is best to remember this is only week one, that there is a long way to go – point well made.

  15. new2this

    What is brainwashing is the opinion polling and media baised for the coaliiton

    that is censorship , stopping people recieiving fainess

  16. meher

    [But I’m probably worrying too much. I still find myself encountering fans of the bloke, albeit among the least well-educated people I know (I cannot think of one person whom I know with a tertiary education who didn’t prefer Gillard. Interesting that.)]

    How bloody patronising of you! Just what Labor needs you to be saying.

  17. News2This:

    Murdoch does all that and more. Brainwashes the kiddies, hacks the missing ones phones, publishes detials of their sex lives so they kill themselves.

    He is evil. You are just pathetic. I wouldnt bother urinating on your grave.

  18. majority of the media in Australia

    code of standards and ethics

    1- no baised

    2- report fairly , accurately

    3- no propaganda to help political parties , etc

    ————-

    Newsltd and pro coalition media breached thier own codes

    licenses should be taken off them

  19. [ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Try to put a $1000 bet on the ALP. You will not be able to.]

    And can you put $1000 on the LNP?

  20. New2This
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:43 pm | PERMALINK
    If you don’t like the opinion polls Meguire bob. You can ignore them… Very simple.

    —————————————————————

    But then i have nothing to get fired up over

  21. Fair point Display Name. Abbott is saying that the GST remains on the table as far as a tax review goes. Still, there is a danger of perceived desperation if Labor pushes this too hard, especially when swinging voters are predisposed to believe the alternative PM rather than the incumbent.

    I remain fairly convinced that with these repeated appearances in the public sphere, Abbott is prone to trip up badly at some point over the next four weeks. That really is Rudd’s best hope. Meantime, Rudd has to get plenty of sleep, smile a lot, stay largely positive (though I remain convinced that attacking Murdoch has much merit) and avoid gaffes on the Labor side.

  22. ML
    Every bookie has limits and laid off bets and they’d certainly accept $1000 on current odds. I missed the boat at 1.43 … was hoping for the fake Rudd bounce to get Abbott to 1.50 but no worries. The prize of Rudd saying “I’m proud of blubber, I’m proud of blubber.. ” as he gets whacked Gillard style is reward enough. I’m going for 90 seats for LNP, at least.

  23. MTBW: how am I being patronizing? What I said is the truth, I swear.

    I guess I might be prepared to qualify the term “well-educated”. The more accurate term is “who had the most years of formal education” (not necessarily the same thing, of course).

  24. [Meguire Bob
    …..
    If you don’t like the opinion polls Meguire bob. You can ignore them… Very simple.

    —————————————————————

    But then i have nothing to get fired up over]

    Don’t cut and paste this back at me later Meguire Bob, but you are actually OK! 🙂

  25. SHELLBELL 51

    After a big day yesterday lunching with extended family, will be pretty quiet want to go up to The Royal Mile area and photo some of the Acts that are on

  26. It will not be long and Murdoch will be back on the agenda. Tom Watson will be here.

    Lots of jounos have been chatting to him on twitter so fair to say media coverage will be big much as Murdoch would like it otherwise.

  27. AS I posted the other day, I think that Rudd needs to choose an attack-dog to go after the Murdoch media, while he himself remains aloof from that particular fight. At the end of the day we can’t stop them printing what they want nor should we. They have a right to their opinions but not to their own facts. If they do get any facts wrong, go hard on it. If they go over the top with their campaigning for their preferred side, call it for what it is. Much of it is way over the top and deserving of nothing but derision and ridicule. Deliver that in spades. Ask if people really want to pay to receive party propaganda, which is what you do when you buy the Daily Telegraph and other Murdoch tabloids.

    Outlets like the Daily Telegraph can campaign for one side if they like. They don’t have a licence to take away, nor would that be desirable. But a shitsheet like the Daily Telegraph has forfieted its right to be considered by potential customers as a credible and impartial source of news on how the country and the wider world is travelling.

  28. Of course just after Rudd was elected Reachtel had it 52-48 to the Coalition and Essential Research 53-47 to the Coalition with the LNP on 46% to the ALP’s 36%, exactly the same as this poll, so it is really the gains of the last few weeks that have been lost. That does not mean they cannot be regained though, and it is those swing voters on whom the election will turn

  29. Bad as polling is looking for Labor now, it is so far no worse than what governments won from during the campaign in 1980, 1993, 1998 and 2004. That said the circumstances of the 1980 and 1998 wins won’t be repeated by this government so there are really only two remotely recent precedents.

  30. What has stalled the resurgence?
    Three years of party dysfunction followed by the rewarding of the chief troublemaker is a start.
    The loss of most of the cabinet
    Corruption in NSW
    A loss of trust with the public through the inability to deliver promises

    I am sure there are plenty more – none of which can be reversed by a quick fix of changing leaders
    It is the brand and not the leader that is the problem.

  31. [They should tighten the odds if a $1,000 bet is a problem for them.]

    They use exotic bets (elections) as free advertising. The dumbo press will run a bookies story for them at least once a week during the campaign.

  32. meher

    I don’t need any qualifications on what you said. We have Rudd now not Gillard so your points are not worthy.

    And guess what at least we are not getting a 29% primary in the opinion poles.

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