Highlights of day two

A surprisingly soft poll result for Kevin Rudd in his Brisbane seat of Griffith, trouble for both parties with candidates in marginal New South Wales seats, and some movement from the bookmakers.

With 31 days left to go:

• ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party – enough to pare back his margin to 4.5%, and raise doubts about Labor’s prospects in Liberal National Party marginals. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.

• Jaymes Diaz, the Liberal candidate for the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway, has been a big hit on social media over the past day or two, and not in a good way. Quizzed by a Ten Network reporter about the content of his party’s six-point plan to “stop the boats”, Diaz could manage only one, offering only the clumsiest of platitudes in place of the other five. He was eventually put out of his misery when a minder intervened to bring the interview to a close. Heath Aston of Fairfax offers some interesting background on the circumstances behind his endorsement.

• Also earning raspberries has been David Bradbury, Labor’s member for the equally important western suburbs seat of Lindsay, who queried a radio interviewer about being a Liberal Party member and ominously asked him to reveal what his surname was.

• Labor appears to be in a muddle over who it will run in Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. Former Gosford deputy mayor Trevor Drake emerged as the only nominee for preselection a month ago, but the party executive has declined to ratify his endorsement. However, Kevin Rudd has been rebuffed in his approach to one his youthful senior advisers from his first tenure as prime minister, current Coles executive Andrew Charlton, who says he is not available due to family reasons. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports the party had been alerted to a finding by Gosford council’s conduct committee that Drake had failed to disclose interests when council considered development applications from a firm for which he acted as a solicitor, although it cleared him of breaching its code of conduct. Higgins also reports concern over “presentational difficulties” relating to Drake’s status as a former Liberal Party member, and the fact that he doesn’t live in the electorate.

• Two agencies have moved their odds slightly in the Coalition’s favour in the wake of Monday’s poll results. Tom Waterhouse has the Coalition paying $1.24, down from $1.27, with Labor out from $3.50 to $4, while Centrebet has the Coalition in from $1.27 to $1.25 and Labor out from $3.60 to $4.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,660 comments on “Highlights of day two”

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  1. Mimhoff

    Yes absolutely.

    The media would never have dared even use the word gay or queer etc. You must be young.

    It was an era when there were no bedroom scenes on telly. No late night adds for escorts, not even a tampon add.

    So they made giggly jokes about McMahon being gay, all in whispers, but VERY effective

  3. I thought Abbott’s response tonight to the slowdown in boat arrivals was telling. He said wtte that the overall long term trend was increasing…. True but if the boats continue to slow in the coming weeks that logic falls apart. I suspect this issue could be one of the defining issues of the coming election…

  5. Can someone fill me in on whatever happened with Rudd on 7.30 Report? I’ve seen it described as an “implosion” on Twitter but can’t find too many details.

  10. Lefty

    I think Murdoch may have made a tactical error here – it is funny but not especially damaging I think.

    However Labor now has an opening to return like for like – probably via U-tube.

    However getting the balance just right between being funny and nasty is very hard.

  12. I’ve actually disclosed here publicly that I’ve outlayed $2k on this federal election.

    I am currently sitting on $1k Labor at $6.

    I am prepared to go $5k the Monkey @ $1.20 to cut losses when I know Abbott going to win.

    Bottom line: $7k outlay, $6 return, either way 😐

  13. Anyone who seriously says that the betting market is a better indicator than the the polls must have a very short memory. On 21 August 2010 the betting markets had the Coalition around the 2.80 – 3.00 mark. Newspoll had 2pp of 50.1-49.9. Gee, I wonder which was closer.

    In 2007 Bennelong was a much polled seat. Every poll had Maxine McKew in front yet not for an instant did she reach favoritism with any of the agencies. It’s fun looking at the betting odds but you are nuts if you take them too seriously.

  14. Nemspy

    It was very far from an implosion. Very controlled and calm. Just took on Murdoch and asked what his commercial interests were.
    Took no gotchas from Sales.

  16. [ Bottom line: $7k outlay, $6 return, either way ]

    Why wait for the election or take the risks involved in gambling – just post me your $7k and I’ll post you back $6k straight away! 🙂

  20. Well Player One

    If the electorate had a tenth of a brain, Labor should be winning the election and…Mesma should have been Opposition leader 😈 even Hockey would do 😐

  21. The only thing of substance imho from 7.30 iv with Rudd was his continued attack on the Murdoch press. Smart diversionary tactic I think .Fight fire with fire. Make News Ltd the story. The ALP have nothing to lose given the hostility from News so may as well give biffo back.

    News have consistent form in trying to unsit a sitting Left leaning parties but will shift their position if they think they are backing the wrong horse (eg UK General Election 1992 and Oz 2007)

  22. [davidwh
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 12:00 am | PERMALINK
    Sorry it wasn’t an implosion. I have watched it twice and though Rudd did OK. Not brilliant but adequate.]

    Yes, it wasnt an implosion, it was just that Leigh had his measure, that is all.

    His face wasn’t particularly happy when she asked about him having Gillard on the campaign trail! 🙂 LOL

  23. [I’m not sure why anyone would buy the DT. It’s funny but it hardly belongs on the front page of a serious newspaper.]

    I make a point of visiting as many newsagents as I can, and in each store looking at the DT cover and commenting loudly “what a waste of trees” “what rubbish” “why would someone sell this rubbish”

  25. [Tom the first and best
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 12:14 am | PERMALINK
    1612

    Where has the other $1,000 gone?]

    Thats ALP budget estimates for you!

    LOL 🙂

    Good night

  29. Haydn

    I’m not going to bother, but I will say three things for you:

    1. At the last election I am on record here that had Abbott shortened in the betting to $2.25, he wins the election. I was batting off post after post being accused of arriving at a so called magic number in thin air.

    So where did Abbott finish in the betting on best market odds available? $2.30, the rest is history.

    2. The market may provide an opportunity to make sound profit. That was the case when Howard lost his seat. There is no infallible system for predicting outcomes.

    3. Refer to my post of what the betting has done to the polls in this election.

    😎

    *knock yourselves out 🙂

  30. So three days in … An unscientific impression…

    Gaffes … Jayme Diaz Ch 10 IV, Turnbull’s staffer Get Fucked comment, Albo’s drinks with Thommo

    Plus’s …. ALPs social media campaign, boat arrivals reducing, High Ct MRRT decision

    Not sure what column to put the DT in….

    Janet Albrechtson’s missive to Tones to get real… The real Tony …

    Wish List … That the Fed Court judges get off their arses and hand down their judgement on the Ashby appeal.

  33. Yeah it wasn’t his greatest performance, but it was fine.

    Hey at least he does interviews, like a PM does. Does Abbott think he’s running for Queen?

  34. Mod Lib

    I think you are seeing what you want to see.

    I thought that Rudd got the better of Sales. She was poorly prepared. She tried the film clip and Rudd squished her, she tried the Gillard bit and he answered smoothly.

    Basically she started the interview with a complex question designed for a gotcha, so Rudd was on his guard for the rest of the interview. She got a bit petulant when Rudd did not give a gotcha answer to her first question, which was by any measure a poor question because it was much too broad..

  37. Sales simply didn’t ask about policy. Its shoddy journalism.

    Rudd simply did not allow her to get away with it and proceeded to get his point across. And I especially liked the way he treated Murdoch.

    Sales was like “oh but didn’t Murdoch help you” and Rudd pointed out in a very straight bat manner that Murodch engaged in some nasty and personal attacks even before he became PM.

    Bravo to Rudd. He’s declared war on Murdoch and on stupid “journalists”., I want to see more of this.

  39. The main thing about the interview was Sales’ steadfast opposition to the viewers learning anything about policy proposals. Instead the focus was on fishing for gotchas.

    Made for very dull and mildly irritating viewing, and of course any pro like Rudd batted her off. What, in the end, was the point if Rudd appearing on her show? Waste if everyone’s time

  40. Okay but what I’m basically asking is what will Abbott do that will so drastically change Australia for the worse?

    Abbott supports NDIS and School funding. Abbott will actually stop the boats which Labor now tries to pretend it’s going to do. Abbott will keep the Carbon Tax compensation but axe the Tax just as Rudd has promised.

    What will just be so terrible under Abbott?

  41. Sean Tisme

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    What if Labor supporters here enjoy an Abbott government?

    Or will you force yourselves not to?
    ——————————————————-

    why would I enjoy increased cost of living and inflation?

    Increased interest rate because low rates mean a slowing economy so to speed it up Hockey will raise them

  43. I agree cud chewer: I want more too.

    Go Rudd. Screw it, I’m inspired: I’m going to donate $ to the ALP campaign.

    And I’m a GRN! (I’ve donated already to Bandt, so no kicking me off my letter boxing run, ok?)

  44. [What will just be so terrible under Abbott?]

    Rule by the incompetent economically illiterate lowlives around him who will be telling him what to think, say, and will be writing his pamphlets for a start.

  48. Cud Chewer

    “Sales simply didn’t ask about policy. Its shoddy journalism.

    Rudd simply did not allow her to get away with it and proceeded to get his point across. And I especially liked the way he treated Murdoch.

    Sales was like “oh but didn’t Murdoch help you” and Rudd pointed out in a very straight bat manner that Murodch engaged in some nasty and personal attacks even before he became PM.

    Bravo to Rudd. He’s declared war on Murdoch and on stupid “journalists”., I want to see more of this.”

    You took the words right out of my mouth!

  49. Sean @1640

    Abbott supports NDIS – don’t believe him.
    and School funding – ditto. He’ll move to further privatise education.
    Abbott will actually stop the boats – so why will they building tent cities on a remote island for boat people who won’t arrive because the boats will have stopped? In any case, it’s all about dogwhistling.
    which Labor now tries to pretend it’s going to do Scott Morrison is doing his best to dogwhistle to people smugglers too. The Liberals have had no interest in stopping the boats before they win power, then they and the Murdochracy will decide it’s not such a big problem if the boats continue.
    Abbott will keep the Carbon Tax compensation but axe the Tax just as Rudd has promised Abbott has a plan that will cost billions that won’t work to fix a problem that he believes probably doesn’t exist and his bankrolls (whatever they believe) want to convince us that it doesn’t.
    What will just be so terrible under Abbott?What he hasn’t told us. Abolish Medicare, Workchoices II, privatise education, working poor… Australia in 2020 looks like USA today.

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