Fowler covers an area of Labor’s western Sydney heartland from Lansvale, Liverpool and Cabramatta in the east, through Hinchinbrook and Cecil Hills to undeveloped territory beyond the Westlink. The electorate has the second highest number of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, ranking in the top ten for persons of Chinese, Vietnamese, Serbian and Croatian extraction. The redistribution ahead of the 2010 election halved its geographic size by exchanging semi-rural territory around Badgerys Creek for urban areas around Liverpool and Lansvale (largely reversing changes made before the 2004 election), boosting the Labor margin by 4.5% and making it their third safest seat in notional terms. It then proceeded to swing more heavily against Labor than any other seat in the country, slashing the margin 22.6% to 8.8% – the first time Labor’s margin had fallen to single figures since the seat’s creation.
Fowler was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, and held first by Ted Grace until 1998 and then by Julia Irwin until 2010. Chiefly noted as a critic of Israel, Irwin secured the seat with the backing of the old guard of the NSW Right, including Laurie Brereton and Leo McLeay. Irwin twice needed protection to secure her preselection in the past, and there were mixed reports about her likely job security at the 2010 election had she not not opted to retire. In doing so she resolved a headache for the ALP, which had been absorbed by a game of musical chairs resulting from the effective abolition of Laurie Ferguson’s seat of Reid. Ferguson was at first determined to be accommodated in Fowler, but a deal was in force reserving the seat for a Right faction which was also dominant in local branches. He was instead made to settle for Werriwa, displacing Chris Hayes to highly marginal Macarthur.
However, Irwin’s departure gave Hayes, a fellow member of the Right, an immensely more attractive safety net, and also allowed local favourite Nick Bleasdale to unsuccessfully contest Macarthur for a second time. Hayes was a former official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union official who entered parliament at the February 2005 by-election caused by the resignation of Mark Latham. Earlier this week he attained the position of chief government whip, which Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon vacated in March after backing Kevin Rudd’s abortive leadership push. The Liberal candidate is Andrew Nguyen (a name he shares with the LNP candidate for Oxley in Queensland), a former Fairfield councillor and long-standing figure in Cabramatta’s Vietnamese community.
so now we have
1 no increments on our pension
2 gst on the gp bill even though we are bulk billed
3 gst on food, wow my pension is looking a bit sick now.
what else can he dream up gst
on bread and milk and
what nasty person he is
===================
so how does gst work on education if its free
so uni course
example
40th for a course you pay 4000 gst
o sorry more than that because its going to
be 18 percent
so if there is no fees at gov, schools how does that work
is he going to have fee paying gov, schools
gee he want want to ask private school parents in the
very rich schools to pay gst on their fees
then on the other hand have the ppl
for the lady down the road that is having her first baby
has he thought this through
shakes head
Phil Vee
I always argue with pollsters when they don’t allow a neutral answer. It also means their design is flawed IMO.
SeanTisMe
“How much colder is the world…’
This is your typical Liberal stuff when it comes to science. 66% of Liberals know that 97% of the world’s climate scientists are wrong. I bet SeanTisMe is one of the 66%.
BTW, I suggest that either (a) you learn to stop holding your thermometer upside down; or, (b) learn to stand on your head when you are reading temperatures.
“THE coalition has accused the federal government of running a “hysterical scare campaign” over superannuation, as Labor MPs across the country rally to warn that Tony Abbott would cut retirement savings to the bone.”
The FACTS are that Abbott is going to remove the $500 contribution to low income wrokers mainly women and part-timers. FACT Abbott is going to delay the raise in superannuation from 9% to 12% for 2 years – he says!! yeah right!!!
And you are so stupid you dont think this will effect peoples super outcome and put more pressure on the Govt budget as more people become eligible for pensions etc…no long term thinking from the Economic Minnow Abbott (EMA)
Since employers pay the SCG hopw will that save his budget any money? Its about looking after his contributors
LOTO and lotto both do the same thing – take money from lots of people and give it to a few
well that
what I concluded
==================
there it is from the horses mouth
AS THEY SAY
=================================================
include food, education and health services.
\
LINK ABOVE
Abbotts PPL will increase the cost of living put more pressure on households as he also removes benefits.
One retailer has costed that it will cost them $40 million. Are Liberals so dumb that they dont think this cost will be passed on to consumers?
Banks are saying they will need to increase interest rates 0.5%. Putting more pressure on small business and families with a mortgage.
Dumb Dumb Dumb policy
One of Abbott’s criticisms of the Government was that it did not consult with industry when developing policy.
Did Abbott consult with the superannuation industry when it developed a policy to get the superannuation nest eggs of millions of Australians?
No, it did not.
Here we have the Liberals reverting to their mean:
(1) criticise Labor failing to consult with industry
(2) hypocritically fail to consult with industry
(3) take superannuation from workers and give a company tax cut to such loveable magnates as Rhinehart, Palmer, Murdoch, Packer and Forrest.
(4) lie that the problem with cutting superannuation nest eggs of millions of workers is that Labor is trying to ‘scare’ people about it.
We will see plenty more of this melange of policy development in secret, hypocrisy, lies and taking from the poor and giving to the rich.
It is in the Liberals’ genes.
[THE coalition has accused the federal government of running a “hysterical scare campaign” over superannuation, as Labor MPs across the country rally to warn that Tony Abbott would cut retirement savings to the bone.]
Howard delayed Hawkes and Keatings last planned super increase for their whole term of government, almost 12 years, because the economy could not afford it.
This was during the boom years, the wasted years as they are known.
Abbott will delay the super increase for as long as he is in government.
The saddest thing is how much better off would retirees be now if Howard had not stopped those super increases instead of pissing the money from the boom years against the wall.
[New Scientist has an article (paywalled) telling us that sea level changes will be quite uneven around the world. If all the ice on Greenland melts, for example, sea level will actually fall in that area! Two reasons are given. First, the lifting the weight of the ice will see the land surface rise. Secondly, there is a gravitational pull between an ice mass and the surrounding water in the ocean which pulls the water towards the ice!
The way things are expected to work, Europe will benefit, but the east coast of the US will be unlucky with sea level rises up top 25% higher than expected. The water from melted ice has to go somewhere. South America will be adversely affected.]
http://larvatusprodeo.net/archives/2013/05/greenland-melt/
I can’t remember if Boerwar linked to this earlier, but it is a good read about the Greenland melt.
The paragraphs I’ve selected refer to a recent journal article about the resultant sea level rises:
http://www.350resources.org.uk/2013/05/03/sea-level-irregularities-and-the-counter-intuitive-effects-of-polar-melting/
lizzie
[Repeated from last thread:
Warren Mundine ready to assume position of power under Tony Abbott]
Nothing should surprise when it comes to Warren Mundine when you consider that the man took on the Presidency of the NSW ALP for a while and got nowhere in that position.
He is an urger who wants recognition all the bloody time.
I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could kick him.
[The saddest thing is how much better off would retirees be now if Howard had not stopped those super increases instead of pissing the money from the boom years against the wall.]
Plus how much less the Budget for the Aged Pension would be now and in the future. Costello warned about the aging population and did nothing about it.
This was obviously the stimulus for Pyne’s “Shorten could hardly speak for terror (sic)”
[Bill Shorten has vowed that Labor will keep its hands off the goods and service tax, following revelations that Tony Abbott could include the GST in a review of the tax system if the Coalition is elected.
The issue is looming as a major battleground in the lead up to September’s election.
Mr Shorten, the Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation, said on Saturday that Labor will not increase the GST.
He said Labor favoured a mining tax rather than slugging ‘‘mums and dads’’ with a GST increase.
‘‘If Tony Abbott was elected he would give money back to the world’s richest mining companies, but he is saying to the mums and dads doing their shopping on a Saturday, ‘I want you to pay more for tax’. These are crazy priorities.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-will-not-increase-gst-shorten-20130518-2jszk.html#ixzz2TcyUKLbg
MTBW
On that we are as one! And he’s apparently succumbed to Abbott’s months of grooming.
Expat Follower
If you are still around – I enjoy your posts and they provide food for thought.
Diogenes@44
Dio – Not so – due to the ‘magic’ of compounding interest.
It works with loans as well as savings.
GG is in the game and would have the tables to put a figure on the savings over the term of the loan.
But the other advantages include getting ahead of your repayments as a cushion for hard times. Remember most people leave their repayments at existing levels even when interest rates drop (borne out by RBA data) – so the combined interest rate reductions in the current cycle means it adds up to a lot more.
Bank’s ‘encourage’ people to increase repayments when rates are rising, but if things are way out of kilter they will tell people they have to.
Boerwar
Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
One of Abbott’s criticisms of the Government was that it did not consult with industry when developing policy.
Did Abbott consult with the superannuation industry when it developed a policy to get the superannuation nest eggs of millions of Australians?
————————————————-
Very Good point
Got to wonder what effect it will have on employment and investment when super funds dont have all that extra money for investment.
Looks like Abbott is out the damage the Super Industry
ruawake
Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 5:39 pm | Permalink
The saddest thing is how much better off would retirees be now if Howard had not stopped those super increases instead of pissing the money from the boom years against the wall.
———————————————————-
According to Howard it was better to creat a welfare culture with things like the baby bonus than to invest in Australias future.
Abbott is following suit….
guytaur@7
Also he looks like he is liable for a heart attack real soon – thats if he had a heart.
[ No Heart, No Brain, No Courage! OMG Toto – they are tories. ]
dave
[Dio – Not so – due to the ‘magic’ of compounding interest.
]
But a 0.25% cut in rates is only a temporary phenomenon. It doesn’t mean there will be a 0.25% reduction in the long term.
Warren Mundine can do whatever he wishes, but it is time to stop calling him a spokesman for the ALP as News Ltd seems to do when convenient.
There have been 22,000 illegals since July of last year. Estimated cost of processing these illegals is now $3 Billion Dollars PER YEAR.
Question for the lefties, have we got a boatpeople crisis yet?
And what is Labor doing about the problem?
Dio, you’re thinking on the wrong scale. It’s not very much from any individual’s point of view but that change will push the numbers past a few more people’s thresholds.
Sean Tisme. Exactly, we should process them onshore.
Sean Tisme@71
Not a problem, once Tony gets in he will stop the boats – there won’t be any boat people, and there will be peace and rejoicing throughout the land, a chicken in every pot, and a cut and come again pudding on the sideboard.
rua
Yes he can do whatever he wishes is anyone’s the ALP can well do without him.
The problem/crisis is that Labor are doing what the Coalition do :P.
I saw a new use your home equity to buy stuff ad on the telly recently (first in a long time). It was a non bank lender, can’t remember who.
I thought this madness was dead, obviously not.
“he is anyone’s”
Diogenes@69
True – but it all adds up.
People who took out loans say around 2005 have had a good run with low interest rates over a swag of years now* – and it all adds up.
* Assuming they kept their jobs during the GFC which many did thats to the measures Labor took to keep the economy ticking over.
I am so glad Sean Tisme has had the revelation that copying the Coalition is a terrible idea!
6
markjs
Something is not adding up about the Coalition’s behaviour.
Under an Abbott Govt asylum seeker arrivals will not be a problem.
He has already stated he will increase the number of 457 visas to do jobs meant for Aussies, so as they step off the boat he will give thema 457 visa – problem solved – well sorta…
With his promise to create 2,000,000 jobs and with unemployment at around 600,000 he will be needing more boats to make up the 1.4million shortfall
Someone was commenting earlier (can’t remember who) that there is same inevitability about this year’s federal election as there was in 2007. This is crap.
In 2007 the prevailing mood in the media was that Howard would pull a rabbit out of the hat and pull off a victory, like he had done in the past. We had Dennis Shanahan telling his readers that PPM was the thing to watch, rather than 2PP, and just about every single announcement the govt made was announced by the media and news outlets as some kind of a master stroke or a game changer.
Very different to now, where nobody in the mainstream media expects the govt to win much less be competitive. In fact so much is this the case that the media missed that the coalition actually had a very poor week this week on several fronts.
Labor’s margin in Fowler is under 9%?
I’m curious how the visual works – it has about 21 booths at 60 plus, 7 on the margin, one just under and only two moderately sized booths well under it. Do those two booths really offset all the other booths? Or is there a another redistribution intervening?
82
Is Abbott`s promise 2,000,00 net jobs of 2,000,000 gross jobs?
And remember than there is also the issue of underemployment and thus lots of people who do not qualify as unemployed but who would still take work. Not to mention disabled people who will be employable with the NDIS and the older worker who will not retire.
JUST ME AND something is not adding up
about all the
budget reply
re old media stoires
I have put at least 5 in my favourites to bring out
two about the
ppl verses child care,
gst,
then one from the editor of one the papers about his budget
that was very telling
then
and mr keating re supper
so yes what s going on
the other day I saw a post that business may have woken
up to who is the better managers of money
wish it was so
I’m sure any new job under Tony’s regime would be gross.
[Sean Tisme. Exactly, we should process them onshore.]
We are processing the majority onshore.
It’s now costing the Aussie taxpayer $3 Billion Dollars.
The lie about onshore processing being cheaper has been exposed.
22,000 illegals are much more expensive to look after than 60 a year under Howard
[He said Labor favoured a mining tax rather than slugging ‘‘mums and dads’’ with a GST increase.]
So labor slugs Gina, Twiggy and Palmer whilst the libs gives them a free pass and hits the ordinary working people.
Is Gina railing against Tones ATM on hard working aussie families.
[Is Abbott`s promise 2,000,00 net jobs of 2,000,000 gross jobs?]
Yes.
He just pulled a number out of his arse. If it is not extra jobs the growth in the economy will create them anyway.
He is such a fraud.
Tom the first and best
Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 6:07 pm | Permalink
82
Is Abbott`s promise 2,000,00 net jobs of 2,000,000 gross jobs?
And remember than there is also the issue of underemployment and thus lots of people who do not qualify as unemployed but who would still take work. Not to mention disabled people who will be employable with the NDIS and the older worker who will not retire.
———————————————————
OK so he will only have a shortfall of 400,000 perhaps…
[Not a problem, once Tony gets in he will stop the boats – there won’t be any boat people]
Tony was one of those boat people.
If all is failing and your policy announcements are crap – return to BOATS. 😆
[Not a problem, once Tony gets in he will stop the boats – there won’t be any boat people, and there will be peace and rejoicing throughout the land, a chicken in every pot, and a cut and come again pudding on the sideboard.]
Decreasing boats from 150 a year to 2-3 a year will be considered by most Australians as stopping the boats.
We don’t need to listen to Labor silliness that 3 boats is too many when they have 150 a year because they are completely incompetent.
I just braved s morrisons web site
to see and there is a lot there
that tisme could of copied and pasted
so is that what you did tisme\
I thought it was something u knew off the top of your head\
look I may be wrong YOU may of
[Plus how much less the Budget for the Aged Pension would be now and in the future. Costello warned about the aging population and did nothing about it.]
Not true, there was Bishops kero baths.
SeanTisme
Brrrrr, it is cold in here. Must be your upside down thermometer.
I am sure Hockey will have $0 provision in his budget for asylum seekers and I am equally sure that there will be no overspend against such a provision.
After all, Abbott is going to stop the boats.
So there is no need to worry your little head about that stuff any more.
Enjoy.
SeanTisMe
‘Decreasing boats from 150 a year to 2-3 a year will be considered by most Australians as stopping the boats.’
I see that you wrote ‘will’ when you actually meant ‘would’.
If Abbott lets boats through our national border protection system, it will demonstrate clearly that he is incapable of protecting our borders.
my say
Why do you insist on being rude to people?
You are not the moderator here and you are forever telling off one person or another.