UPDATE (8/4/2013): Essential Research has Labor up a point to 32%, the Coalition steady on 49% and the Greens down two to 9%, with two-party preferred steady on 56-44. Perceptions of the economy have improved (good up 10 points since a year ago to 45% and poor down three to 26%). Those who answered good or poor were respectively asked why the government wasn’t popular, and what it was that made them think that given low unemployment and inflation. Strong support was also found for taxing superannuation earnings and contributions of high-income earners, at 55% compared with 35% opposed.
Known prior to the 2010 election as Prospect, the western Sydney electorate of McMahon covers two distinct suburban areas separated by Prospect Reservoir and semi-rural areas immediately to the west. Closer to the city are the suburbs of Greystanes and Fairfield approximately 30 kilometres from the CBD, together with Bossley Park and the Wetherill Park industrial area immediately to the west. These areas collectively account for about 80% of the electorate’s population. In the north-west of the electorate are the City of Penrith suburbs of St Clair and Erskine Park. There is a wide variability in ethnic diversity among the electorate’s suburbs, with English speakers accounting for over three-quarters of the population in St Clair and Erskine Park compared with barely a fifth in and around Fairfield, home to large Arabic and Vietnamese populations. This is broadly reflected in income levels, with family income in the former areas roughly double those of the latter.
Prospect was created at the 1969 election, at which time it covered Liverpool some distance to the south. It was drawn closer to the city with the expansion of parliament in 1984, which saw Liverpool accommodated by the new seat of Fowler. Labor has held the seat at all times, but a weakening trend has been evident since a 5.8% swing in 2004 reduced the margin to 7.1%. This was doubled by the swing to Labor in 2007, but a 6.0% swing in 2010 brought it back down to 7.8%. The area covered by the electorate turned from red to blue in the 2011 state election landslide, the only holdout being Fairfield (the majority of which is in McMahon’s eastern neighbour Blaxland) where the margin was reduced from 20.4% to 1.7%. The swings in Mulgoa, which covers St Clair and Erskine Park, and Smithfield, including Bossley Park and surrounding suburbs, were over 20%.
Prospect/McMahon has been held since 2004 by Chris Bowen, the previous members having been Richard Klugman until 1990 and Janice Crosio thereafter. A member of the New South Wales Right, Bowen served his political apprenticeship as chief-of-staff to state government minister Carl Scully. He was promoted to the front bench in 2006, and on the election of the Rudd government became Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Competition Policy and Consumer Affairs. His elevation to cabinet came when he filled the vacancy created by the resignation of factional colleague Joel Fitzgibbon in June 2009. He at first assumed the human services, financial services, superannuation and corporate law portfolios, before being delivered the hospital pass of immigration and citizenship after the 2010 election.
Chris Bowen emerged during the current term as one of the principal agitators for Kevin Rudd to return to the leadership, and he was discussed as a possible contender for Treasury and/or the deputy leadership if Rudd’s challenge in February 2012 had succeeded. He emerged unscathed from the reshuffle that followed, and was reassigned to Chris Evans’ portfolios of tertiary education, skills, science and research when Evans bowed out in February 2013. After the collapse of a second bid to draft Kevin Rudd the following month, Bowen forestalled imminent dismissal by joining fellow Rudd backers Martin Ferguson and Kim Carr in an exodus from cabinet.
The preselected Liberal candidate is Ray King, police superintendent for the Liverpool area who served in the same capacity in Fairfield from 2005 to 2008. Fairfield councillor Frank Oliveri had initially been considered the front-runner, but he withdrew amid an Independent Commission Against Corruption inquiry into non-disclosure of election fundraising ahead of the 2007 election. Other contenders for the preselection were Casula real estate agent Joe Romeo and the candidate from 2010, Iraqi immigrant and Fairfield grocery store owner Jamal Elishe.
A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 630 respondents in the electorate, conducted in early March to coincide with five days of campaigning in western Sydney by the Prime Minister, found Bowen to be heading for a heavy defeat with 31.8% of the primary vote against 52.5% for the Liberal Party, panning out to a 62-38 Liberal lead after preferences. A further question on how respondents would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the Labor Party had the Liberal lead at 53-47.
[Nor is there evidence that Australia is getting any drier’]
I think the new definition of “evidence” is – “anything that doesn’t contradict the views of right wingers, no matter how self deluded.
Northern Australia is getting hotter and wetter. Southern Australia is getting warm and dryer. You can debate the causes, bur that is the clear evidence of our weather records.
In the last 16 years Melbourne has had just 2 years with above everage rainfall…and 14 of below average..and I suspect another such is looming right now
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 8:30 pm | Permalink
..
Not so silently. There was some interview material available from some of them. It was painful. They had been so certain in their ignorance and arrogance. They had been sold down the drain by the cynical liars in their parties. When the crunch came there was clearly a dawning, painful realization that the scientists were right and that the party apparatchiks who were doing the lying and cynical doubt infusion were in fact the real ratbags.]
That about sums it up, the south of Victoria is the new mallee, out with the sheep in with the headers (it was to wet for wheat once). Bit sad for the mallee, desert farming here we come.
The denial industry.
http://31.216.132.122/web/www.data-yard.net/10f3/monbiot.pdf
I wonder if compact crank is on the payroll or is just another sucker.
deblonay
‘The Failure of Laissez Fair Capitalism,and the dissolution of the West’
Really, what is laissez faire about US capitalism? The system contains huge unlaissez faire elements whereby special interests distort the economy to a huge extent.
For example, ask any Australian corporate farmers what they would like change about US agricultural policies to make it fair and then stand back for a diatribe.
Bludgers , I’m delighted to tell you that I was just polled. Guess who favoured?
[Someone missed the fact that the cold kills more than heat…….]
You idiot. England is on the same latitude as Moscow and Minsk.
The only thing that stops the UK freezing every winter is the Atlantic Conveyor, which is being screwed up by ice melt.
Climate Change is about the increase in total energy in the environment, not about whether England freezes, or Perth is dry, or there’s a bit of noise in the warming charts that fools fools into stating that “we’ve plateaued”.
Go and fight your fires Rummel. There’ll be plenty more for you to risk your life combatting, and then you can come back here and tell us that while you’re a big hero, the Earth is actually getting cooler.
Fat chance.
Sorry about that Rummel. CC is more of a twit than yourself. 🙂
deblonay
[A stunning book which sees a very dark time ahead for Americans as the collapse of their economy continues]
I know feck all about economics but I have read many articles by people who claim to have such knowledge describing how if the USD loses its status as the global reserve currency it is all over for the US economy. Perhaps the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union will be mirrored by that of the United States ?
Im devastated Joe!
Its a very lonely place in the real world wanting to vote Labor out this year.
Boerwar:
Farmers who have put their lot in with the Nationals (who are supposed to represent their interests) have been badly let down. Not just in WA, but across the country.
Look guys, it’s simple. The more carbon dioxide there is, the better the plants grow. Just think of the size of the pumpkins you will be able to submit to your local vegetable growing contest!
[imacca
Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 8:44 pm | PERMALINK
Sorry about that Rummel. CC is more of a twit than yourself.]
Thats alright Imacca, Borewar puts me in that camp anyway. It was the thought that counts 🙂
Well, comrades, off for an extended rest. Confronted by cynical lying as the new norm I leave you with the words of Polonius in Hamlet. In the end they are about where I think each and every one of should aim to be:
‘This above all: to thine own self be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.
Farewell, my blessing season this in thee!’
[Go and fight your fires Rummel. There’ll be plenty more for you to risk your life combatting, and then you can come back here and tell us that while you’re a big hero, the Earth is actually getting cooler.]
Thanks BB.
I have been worried about you, you seen to have lost some spark after the non spill spill.
will someone at crickey fix this post? when you try to comment it sends you back to first post – making it impossible to reference the post you reply to easily. crazy. surely this is a five minute job – to keep the last page active –
as well, please open on last page most recent posts … why first first?????????
The solution is simple.
To use the Crikey Clear Comment Preview script, install in order:
Firefox
Greasemonkey
cccp
or:
Google Chrome
Tampermonkey
cccp
————————————–
user friendly?????
[rummel
Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 8:45 pm | Permalink
Im devastated Joe!
Its a very lonely place in the real world wanting to vote Labor out this year.]
Don’t worry Murdoch is on your corner however it seems he goes to sleep.
http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=176803812473269&id=274330505796
[2228
rummel
Boerwar
I do not deny climate change…]
This is feeble. The LNP are trying to finesse this trick. It is an old card-player’s specialty. But it won’t work. If you actually think climate change is real and is important, you would be trying to defend the carbon pricing law and would advocate voting for Labor. If you start doing that, I’ll begin to believe you’re serious.
Socrates:
Sympathies. WA Dept Planning does seem to be forward thinking in its approach to urban planning. The whole ‘activities center’ approach on which it bases urban planning appears to works well even in regional and rural centres.
The Dept has also done a lot of work in SW WA regional centres looking at how to stop degradation of local CBDs after Bunbury basically sold its CBD businesses down the drain by allowing Woolworths and those mega Bunnings type enterprises to develop in outyling areas, thereby directing shoppers away from the CBD.
I’m fascinated by this stuff, even though it isn’t my background or qualifications. I see direct synergies with health and wellbeing, social inclusion and community cohesion, esp in rural/regional areas.
Rummel posts a ‘blind’..; “Its a very lonely place in the real world wanting to vote Labor out this year.”
But you won’t vote them out, will you Rummel?..The ‘Ol’ Rummy’s’ keeping his eye on the front runner and he’ll go with the “bolter in the last furlong”, ’cause Rummel only backs a winner!…he’s too scared to lose or even put up a good, honest fight!
[The likelihood of an economically, environmentally and politically effective agreement is basically zero.]
For climate change, I sadly think this is true. Like Labor at the next election, you can see the train wreck coming, but may not be able to get the decision makers to change course.
I think those who came up with the idea for carbon trading as a solution to climate change got it wrong, politically. It may have been economically elegant, but the guilty parties don’t want to do it. ,Kyoto, after almost twenty years, has been a failure.
But that doesn’t mean we ned do nothing. In the absence of multilateral agreement, we can act unilaterally. If enough countries do so, it has effect.
I think we should have gone for something more like the Montreal protocol. Simply ban the harmful activities. Like burning brown coal, or emitting more CO2 than is a sustainable rate. Tax imports from those countries that do harm. Carrot and stick. In carbon trading, there is no stick. Nor dies everyone have a common stake in stopping it. Unfortunately, just as only some countries cause global warming and many poor ones do not, some countries actually stand to benefit from it, like Canada and Russia. It was never going to yield a voluntary universally adopted solution.
BH:
Insanely jealous! Who polled you?
OMG thunder! I thought the lights were dimming in and out earlier.
We desperately need the rain!
[2261
DisplayName
Look guys, it’s simple. The more carbon dioxide there is, the better the plants grow. Just think of the size of the pumpkins….]
No matter how big the pumpkins might grow, nothing will exceed your deceit, DN.
[If you actually think climate change is real and is important, you would be trying to defend the carbon pricing law and would advocate voting for Labor. If you start doing that, I’ll begin to believe you’re serious.]
Why? action has been taken, plus i should vote green if i was really going to advocate for carbon pricing. It was the greens who got Labor to put a price on Carbon.
Confessions
Yes WA planning is doing good work there, so is the PTA. I do a lot of work on that topic myself. It is hard to make isolated retail centres work. See articles by Buchanan and others on agglomeration and wider economic benefits.
I agree social inclusion is important, but advise caution and think it needs to be treated separately. First make the businesses viable and then work out how to share the benefits. If the planning rules send the businesses broke then everybody loses.
Just to be clear, post 2270 is NOT a criticism of the carbon tax. It works. The criticism is of the international efforts, which have not worked.
Confessions
If you are interested, see these articles on agglomeration effects on the economies of cities.
Glasser
http://www.nber.org/papers/w14806
Buchanan was the first to work out how to quantify the mpact of land use transport interaction:
http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/economic_unit/transport/docs/buchanan.pdf
Venables articles are also good, if you understand the economic theory.
Confessions Must admit I was stoked and didn’t have to worry about age as I was the first called.
Was EMI doing a survey for Universities looking for funding –
1stQ Happy or not with direction of Oz economy, more on that line, several re higher education, CSIRO, TAFE, extra funding for research, interspersed with what did I think of Craig Emmerson, PMJG, TAbbott, Brett Mason.
The best one was what did I think of Christopher Pyne. I can only say that I restrained myself gloriously by saying I didn’t think he’d really want to know what I thought so he should just mark it as unfavourable 🙂
Questions re most important isdues, had I seen ads by Universities for extra
funding. I’m the wrong person to ask that. I don’t take any motice of ads.
Night all. I don’t expect much change in Newspoll tonight. Steady as she sinks.
Socrates:
Thanks for the links – will read with interest. I don’t agree however that social inclusion should be treated separately from CBD planning, esp in rural/regional areas.
People in this town are deeply attached to the town centre and town square, because they see it representing our town’s identity and aspirations for the future.
Social inclusion benefits from CBD planning therefore include accessibility for people with disabilities, cultural considerations for people from culturally diverse backgrounds, including indigenous Australians, and heritage/historical issues which may be relevant.
These factors need to be included in urban planning, esp in central precincts which have a high social value by residents.
[Socrates
Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 9:11 pm | PERMALINK
Night all. I don’t expect much change in Newspoll tonight. Steady as she sinks.]
Dont be silly, its not good ship Labor sinking. Its the whole ocean conspiring to top the Labor gunwales.
BH:
Thanks and congrats anyway! 🙂
First? That has to be a Bludger record.
Socrates @ 2251
Do you have a source for your statement that Southern Australia is getting drier? I posted links on PB last June from the BOM where you could go back over 100 years, for different regions, and graph the rainfall records. The BOM have changed there web page and these records don’t appear available now, however the records showed: –
For the Murray Darling Basin, Eastern Australia & South Eastern Australia the trend was flat, or for one, not sure which one, slightly up. Don’t believe there was a Southern Australia one. Don’t recall South Western WA however I understand the trend is down. Northern Australia up and also Australia overall up.
“Dont be silly, its not good ship Labor sinking. Its the whole ocean conspiring to top the Labor gunwales.”
Jesus Christ…..how pissweak.
Fess
I was just about to read PB when the phone rang. I mentioned CC as one of my important issues and then found it a topic here when I logged on.
Boerwar has so much info on it.
[will someone at crickey fix this post? when you try to comment it sends you back to first post – making it impossible to reference the post you reply to easily. crazy. surely this is a five minute job – to keep the last page active –
as well, please open on last page most recent posts … why first first?????????]
I don’t disagree with any of this. Every few months or so I ask them to do something about it, but no luck so far sorry.
A thunderstorm just passed through. Thunder, lightning, wind gusts, but minimal rain.
All clear and still now.
Bizarre.
2286
That is the same problem I have been having and my problem has also included it going to the top of the page when I refresh.
It however does not happen on threads that have not been divided because they have more than 50 comments.
“…“Dont be silly, its not good ship Labor sinking. Its the whole ocean conspiring to top the Labor gunwales.”
Jesus Christ…..how pissweak.”
This is what it has become..to attack the negatives who have no definate direction to their politics…Yet, I challenge the Lib’ straw-suckers here to tell me..: Which of you will not or has not already benefitted from govt’ policy?…and once we have got over THAT hurdle you can tell us all which of you will benefit from LNP. projected policy…?
C’mon….give it your best shot!
[Gauss
.. standard denial ..
]
So you on the payroll gauss or are you one of the suckers.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/feb/14/funding-climate-change-denial-thinktanks-network
2276
The Government has sorted out the Super issue (politically at least) and Abbott has really put his foot in it on urban rail. The Government will also be getting Foreign Policy cred with all this stuff with China. It may not show up in this weeks polls but it will show up soon.
Re NBN
Someone mentioned earlier the critical interest on display at Whirlpool. The posters overwhelmingly support Labor’s approach ie NBN as Labor has it. On technical grounds, not politics.
As do others, eg Delimiter.
Mind you, not that No Tech Head Tony could wrap his head around this stuff.
But I can.
fredik
You disputing the BOM figures?
@My Say,
I’m curious why you feel that Liberal posters here might be “trolls”. I’ve seen you repeatedly refer to “troll” Liberals.
The Liberal supporters here, outnumbered as they are, are simply stating their views. The last time I checked this wasn’t called “ALP Bludger”.
Gee, Socrates.
You seem to be naturally pessimistic.
Cheer up dear.
You (and I, as I agreed with your view of last week) had a grass roots win on the Ethics funding. I was as annoyed as you, at the refusal to fund.
I think there was something else you were pessimistic about, but cannot recall. Let me know. It wasn’t Cars N Things, although I have not read back.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1301.0~2012~Main%20Features~Australia%27s%20climate~143
Try the ABS……and stop being so transparently disingenuous…
[Temperatures in Australia were relatively stable from 1910 until 1950, and since then have followed an increasing trend, with an overall increase during 1910 to 2010 of approximately 0.8°C (calculated by comparing decadal mean temperatures in the 1910–1950 period with those in the last 10 years). Overnight minimum temperatures have warmed more quickly than daytime maximum temperatures, but both have increased over almost the entire continent, with the largest increases occurring in north-eastern Australia. In conjunction with this trend, the frequencies of frosts and other extreme low temperatures have decreased, while the frequency of extreme high temperatures has increased, although at a slower rate. Over Australia, the observed warming has accelerated in recent years, and the warming from the late 20th century has been largely attributed to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Over the continent as a whole, rainfall has increased over the 1900–2010 period, with the largest increases occurring over northern and north-western Australia. However, since 1960, there have been substantial decreases in rainfall over three relatively small, but economically and agriculturally important, regions: south-western Western Australia, Victoria (particularly southern Victoria) and the eastern coastal fringe (particularly south-eastern Queensland).
Table 1.3 shows temperatures and rainfall averaged over Australia since the commencement of comprehensive national records. The article, A hundred years of science and service – Australian meteorology through the twentieth century, in Year Book Australia 2001 provides further details, including maps of temperature and rainfall trends to 1999.]
Here’s a link to the Bureau of Meteorology’s trend maps:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi?map=tmean&area=aus&season=0112&period=1970
The specific link shows a warming trend since 1970. You can get various maps of temperature and rainfall using different start points.
geoffrey@2265
Yes, very simple, you just click on the links in my original reply.
and…also from the ABS, in relation to the decile 2001-2009:
[Adding to the impact of recent dry conditions has been the accompanying increase in temperature. The period from July 2001 to June 2009 was clearly the warmest such period on record for eastern Australia. Maximum temperatures averaged over Australia were 0.86°C above the 1961–90 normal. In contrast, temperatures averaged through the driest periods of the 1940s were near the 1961–90 normal.]
This document quite clearly shows extensive areas in Victoria, NSW, Southern Qld, Tasmania and the western edge of WA recording their lowest rainfall on record in the 10 years to 2009.
So am i the only one watching QandA?