Seat of the week: McMahon

Held by principal Kevin Rudd backer Chris Bowen, McMahon is among the western Sydney seats where Labor appears in danger of a once unthinkable defeat.

UPDATE (8/4/2013): Essential Research has Labor up a point to 32%, the Coalition steady on 49% and the Greens down two to 9%, with two-party preferred steady on 56-44. Perceptions of the economy have improved (good up 10 points since a year ago to 45% and poor down three to 26%). Those who answered good or poor were respectively asked why the government wasn’t popular, and what it was that made them think that given low unemployment and inflation. Strong support was also found for taxing superannuation earnings and contributions of high-income earners, at 55% compared with 35% opposed.

Known prior to the 2010 election as Prospect, the western Sydney electorate of McMahon covers two distinct suburban areas separated by Prospect Reservoir and semi-rural areas immediately to the west. Closer to the city are the suburbs of Greystanes and Fairfield approximately 30 kilometres from the CBD, together with Bossley Park and the Wetherill Park industrial area immediately to the west. These areas collectively account for about 80% of the electorate’s population. In the north-west of the electorate are the City of Penrith suburbs of St Clair and Erskine Park. There is a wide variability in ethnic diversity among the electorate’s suburbs, with English speakers accounting for over three-quarters of the population in St Clair and Erskine Park compared with barely a fifth in and around Fairfield, home to large Arabic and Vietnamese populations. This is broadly reflected in income levels, with family income in the former areas roughly double those of the latter.

Prospect was created at the 1969 election, at which time it covered Liverpool some distance to the south. It was drawn closer to the city with the expansion of parliament in 1984, which saw Liverpool accommodated by the new seat of Fowler. Labor has held the seat at all times, but a weakening trend has been evident since a 5.8% swing in 2004 reduced the margin to 7.1%. This was doubled by the swing to Labor in 2007, but a 6.0% swing in 2010 brought it back down to 7.8%. The area covered by the electorate turned from red to blue in the 2011 state election landslide, the only holdout being Fairfield (the majority of which is in McMahon’s eastern neighbour Blaxland) where the margin was reduced from 20.4% to 1.7%. The swings in Mulgoa, which covers St Clair and Erskine Park, and Smithfield, including Bossley Park and surrounding suburbs, were over 20%.

Prospect/McMahon has been held since 2004 by Chris Bowen, the previous members having been Richard Klugman until 1990 and Janice Crosio thereafter. A member of the New South Wales Right, Bowen served his political apprenticeship as chief-of-staff to state government minister Carl Scully. He was promoted to the front bench in 2006, and on the election of the Rudd government became Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Competition Policy and Consumer Affairs. His elevation to cabinet came when he filled the vacancy created by the resignation of factional colleague Joel Fitzgibbon in June 2009. He at first assumed the human services, financial services, superannuation and corporate law portfolios, before being delivered the hospital pass of immigration and citizenship after the 2010 election.

Chris Bowen emerged during the current term as one of the principal agitators for Kevin Rudd to return to the leadership, and he was discussed as a possible contender for Treasury and/or the deputy leadership if Rudd’s challenge in February 2012 had succeeded. He emerged unscathed from the reshuffle that followed, and was reassigned to Chris Evans’ portfolios of tertiary education, skills, science and research when Evans bowed out in February 2013. After the collapse of a second bid to draft Kevin Rudd the following month, Bowen forestalled imminent dismissal by joining fellow Rudd backers Martin Ferguson and Kim Carr in an exodus from cabinet.

The preselected Liberal candidate is Ray King, police superintendent for the Liverpool area who served in the same capacity in Fairfield from 2005 to 2008. Fairfield councillor Frank Oliveri had initially been considered the front-runner, but he withdrew amid an Independent Commission Against Corruption inquiry into non-disclosure of election fundraising ahead of the 2007 election. Other contenders for the preselection were Casula real estate agent Joe Romeo and the candidate from 2010, Iraqi immigrant and Fairfield grocery store owner Jamal Elishe.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 630 respondents in the electorate, conducted in early March to coincide with five days of campaigning in western Sydney by the Prime Minister, found Bowen to be heading for a heavy defeat with 31.8% of the primary vote against 52.5% for the Liberal Party, panning out to a 62-38 Liberal lead after preferences. A further question on how respondents would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the Labor Party had the Liberal lead at 53-47.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,449 comments on “Seat of the week: McMahon”

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  1. Yes PA

    And I know who to blame

    The political imbeciles and traitors to the Australian people and the Labor party who knifed a popular PM, replacing him with the B team, further weakened by public disquiet over the way the coup happened.

    Real brains trust.

    The result is NBN destroyed-Why the F has it taken Conroy so long to complete it. He has had years ans surrey could have got enough of a roll out to mean that even Abbott could not shelve it. But no it was not to be. I will never have NBN. Thank Gillardistas

    Now it looks like rail projects destroyed. Makes me FURIOUS. Thanks Gillardistas

    Abbott will have control of the Senate for at least 6 years. Thanks Gillardistas.

    Selfish, treacherous and strategically imbecilic

  2. guytaur
    This is Maley in the Fairfax piece you linked.
    [Gillard is a bad communicator in press conferences, and her personal unpopularity means people have stopped listening to her. Many voters don’t trust her. But she would earn greater respect if she told us frankly: ”Yes, this reform creates losers. If you can deal with that, then vote for it.”]

    I hardly think this small adjustment to Super can be compared with Medicare.
    [”Medicare was taken by Gough Whitlam to the 1969 election. It was part of the Labor Party’s platform throughout the ’70s and ’80s,” Bowtell says.

    ”The Liberal-National opposition eventually had to agree to it, and when they did in 1996 it became part of the furniture.”
    But by then the reform, which created ”losers” in the sense that every Australian pays a levy for it, had been thrashed out for years at the Labor party conference (back when it was actually a forum for ideas and genuine debate), in newspapers, caucus and around barbecues.
    The public debate over Medicare was vitriolic and personal, and raged over decades. The Australian Medical Association held noisy rallies against it. An effigy of Bill Hayden (the minister responsible for Medibank in 1975) was dressed in an SS uniform.

    Labor stared down the resistance and stuck with the policy for successive elections, thereby demonstrating to the public its bona fides.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/super-tactic-fight-the-enemy-press-the-facts-20130405-2hbza.html#ixzz2Pd9RpcxV

  4. #42 maybe I am just pessimistic because of Europe. I really dont think Tony, being a former member of the DLP, will be as comfortable cutting spending as people think he will. But at the end of the day the liberal party combined with special interest group will make him cut spending one way or another.

  5. Why does Maley say that the PM is a bad communicator in pressers? Does she always walk away from the hard questions? 😀

  6. lizzie

    I posted because it was interesting. Not because I agree with it. A lot of it is more excuse for press gallery to duck their role in blocking the message.

    However there are a few points worth considering in hostile media environment.

  7. DTT know the people to blame are Rudd and his fellow rats who undermined and destabilised and whiteanted a PM who won the 2010 election DESPITE BEING LEAKED AGAINST during the campaign.

    Rudd was not PM material and it is typical of the egotistical freak that, despite Gillard having more support in caucus, he insisted he had to be the Leader!

    No, blame Rudd and the other rats.

  8. Re BK @31.

    We have a number of Coalition supporters on this blog, although none of them seem to like Tony Abbott. Some disagree with the few policies he’s put out. But they are still prepared to vote for him.

    But do we really want a Prime Minister who’s strategy has been to push disinformation (or sometimes tell the most egregious lies) to sow fear, uncertainty, doubt and contempt in the community with a view to advancing his and his backers’ interests. What about the almost open appeals to racism over boats (whose occupants are supposedly disease carriers and potential terrorists or criminals who need to be watched by the police). Presumably it’s all a regrettable necessity in order to advance the greater cause of free markets, small government, social conservatism, lower taxation for the rich, or whatever.

  10. If I could give Julia and her team one bit of advice I would tell them to stop pushing that line that he treated other members of his party badly. The australian democrats had it right when they made their slogan “keeping the bastards honest”. Normal people are unlikely to feel sorry for politician’s sob stories. Fact is people hate politicians. If Gillard’s team stopped acting like robots it would be pretty obvious to them.

  11. PA

    You spout nonsense
    Rudd may or may ont have “leaked” in the 2010 election campaing but to be frank he could have done much, much much more damage had he left in a huff and done a Latham.

    The public recognises that even if he did leak, he had justice on his side and the leaks were relatively well contained given the very obvious public thrashing and humiliation he had bee handed out. Most normal people would have lashed our in ec=xtreme bitterness and it is to his credit that he was as controoled as he was.

    In fact ONE of the leaks – the Oaks one was not a leak at all. It was Rudd’s personal information and for him to do with as he chose. The mistake he made was in not including it in his farewell speech. He would have been wise to have done so, but he hardly had a lot of time to prepare his speech and it was done under extreme pressure.

    As for the pensions ETS leak – much as I like him I suspect Tanner NOT Rudd. {Personally I think Cabinet secrecy is a much overrated protocol, except for foreign affairs and defence matters it should be abolished.

  14. daretotread

    [he had justice on his side ]

    Ah, so given a choice between being loyal to the party and ensuring the re election of a Labor government, he put his own personal feelings first.

    Thanks for admitting it.

  15. [Prime Minister Julia Gillard will urge China to pressure North Korea to stop making provocative statements and accept South Korea’s offer of trust-building talks.

    Australia has clearly stated its condemnation of North Korea’s “belligerent and provocative statements”, Ms Gillard told reporters as she arrived in China on Friday for a six-day visit.

    “I will be urging the Chinese leadership to use its influence to help with this issue, and help see an end to these provocative statements,” Ms Gillard said.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/16564256/gillard-wants-the-two-koreas-to-talk/

    Morning all.

    JG is among Australia’s best Prime Ministers! How lucky our country is that she leads this government.

  17. daretotread,

    Next you are going to tell us that Rudd’s poo does not stink, that it was him that was crucified on the Cross and the North Koreans are threatening the world because the ALP were so mean to little Kev.

    In your mind, it probably makes sense.

  19. [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette 22m
    Why on earth would you get an IPA sponsored opinion on Superannuation? Unless you had a political agenda to push? #mediafail #auspol]

    I take it the ABC is using its usual go-to guys for political commentary.

  20. “@daveyk317: RT @nevso: @juliagillard
    PM Gillard’s control under sustained pressure and an avalanche of lies, is a template for us all…”

  21. Mike Carlton on Kenny i.v. with “gutless Abbott”
    [”We are entering a very unique and unusual political period,” Kenny droned by way of introducing the great man. I’ll spare you the details of what followed, except to say that it was indeed very unique and unusual. Kenny didn’t so much butter him up as smother him in meringue, chocolate fudge and whipped cream, topped with chopped nuts, kiwi fruit and maraschino cherries. Nothing of any news value emerged.
    After this travesty squelched to a halt there was ”comment from the panel”, which – surprise! – turned out to be those uber-right News Ltd nutters Janet Albrechtsen and Miranda Devine. Hands neatly folded on the desk, fiercely bespectacled, they filled a head-mistressey 10 minutes agreeing with Kenny that a Coalition government could not come soon enough.
    In essence, Abbott is a policy-free zone and gutless with it. And as Labor’s lemmings stampede for the cliff with the media in hot pursuit, he gets away with it scot-free.]
    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/politics/fortune-favours-the-notsobrave-abbott-20130405-2hbzc.html#ixzz2PdGhHoWc

  22. Zoomster

    Loyalty to a party is a much overrated concept and indeed a dangerous one leading unchecked to poor government at best and totalitarianism at worst.

    However what I find laughable and extremely hypocritical is that Rudd POSSIBLE leaks are regarded as disloyal but similar leaks to Cassidy and others – probably by Shorten are not considered disloyal.

    Call Rudd out if you choose but ALSO call out Shorten and whoever else was leaking like a sieve in early 2010 – AN ELECTION YEAR. Other wise how about giving it a rest. Those who ignore the early 2010 leaks are placing themselves in the camp of mindless factional hacks.

    THINK logically Zoomster.

    However more to the point, what the F did Shorten and co expect. If Rudd had resigned from politics as they expected, he might well have dumped much, much ,much more on them.

    You should be bloody grateful he was as controlled as he was.

  23. political animal

    He was upset. His feelings were hurt. He lashed out.

    Perfectly understandable.

    What’s best for the Australian people is obviously far less important than indulging someone’s hurt feelings.

  24. DTT

    No matter how you think it happened the reality is Caucus decided.

    Its over. There are loyal Labor members and rats. Loyal Labor members support the team leader decided by Caucus.
    That is PMJG. No use whining about what if or whom treated whom how.

    The decision has been made. Get used to it.

  25. This week Mike Carlton remembers just who the actual enemy is instead of wringing his hands over Labor’s leadership elections.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/fortune-favours-the-notsobrave-abbott-20130405-2hbzc.html

    This says it all:

    [Abbott has given up risking serious interviews since his humiliating debacle with Leigh Sales on the ABC’s 7.30 last year, when he tied himself in knots over BHP Billiton and the carbon tax. Now he appears only with the likes of Alan Jones or Ray Hadley, where he knows he’ll be schmoozed.
    There was a delicious example of this on Sky News last Sunday on a show hosted – if that’s the word – by one Chris Kenny, a News Ltd columnist, former spear-carrier for Lord Downer, and failed Liberal preselection hopeful.
    ”We are entering a very unique and unusual political period,” Kenny droned by way of introducing the great man. I’ll spare you the details of what followed, except to say that it was indeed very unique and unusual. Kenny didn’t so much butter him up as smother him in meringue, chocolate fudge and whipped cream, topped with chopped nuts, kiwi fruit and maraschino cherries. Nothing of any news value emerged.]

  28. GG

    No I leave the allocation of sainthood to you and the Gillardistas.

    Somehow you have equated her as a combination of Mother Theresa and Joan of Arc.

    I am on record here as criticising Rudd when deserved. I am not a mindless hack. I am maverick left Labor so many of Rudd’s approached I find pretty off putting BUT I value intelligence, vision and clear sense of direction, together with freedom from corruption and bloody hard work.

    Oh and I rather like it when Labor WINS. Clearly you do not care much so long as your factional allies control the ALP.

    DO NOT TALK LOYALTY TO ME

  30. DTT Gillard never leaked against Rudd, we know Rudd leaked and backgrounded journos to harm JGPM—and consequently hurt ALP supporters, good government and the country.

    If we do get Abbott PM I will blame Rudd and the other rats!

  31. “@MayneReport: News Ltd previously cheered on ALP/cops over Age accessing dodgy ALP data base. Now 3 journos charged & News silent. Press freedom anyone?”

  32. Zoomster – that’s hysterical. The plotters basically claim they had to knife Rudd because he hurt their feelings. So if it’s a good enough excuse to dump a first term PM, I reckon it’s open slather…

  33. Guytaur

    Oh I am used to it.

    I have assumed Gillard would lead ALP to the election since 2012, except perhaps if the Libs changed leaders.

    However I have no respect for those who caused it and let it happen.

    This talk of loyalty is amusing. Guytaur if you have a good friend who you see starting to mix with a dangerous crowd – drugs, crime etc.

    Do you “leak” to their parents or close relatives to try to avoid disaster or just ignore it and indeed encourage their new friends.

    What price loyalty.

  36. DTT

    What price indeed. Remember I am not a member of the Labor party.

    I do however recognise how Labor works. I know loyal labor members fight tories and not labor leaders decided by Caucus.

    Especially in a run up to an election campaign.

  37. PA

    We can agree to differ

    I blame the people who leaked against Rudd, the people who participated in the coup and the people who, despite the obvious signs of electoral catastrophe sat stock still without making any effort to stop the vehicle going over the cliff.

    To these people I thank for 9-12 years of an Abbott/IPA government. WELL DONE!!!!

  39. [The reforms are targeted at limiting the tax deductions for those with incomes of more than $300,000 a year and those retirees with superannuation account balances of more than $2 million.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/phoney-war-is-over-and-most-have-survived-20130405-2hc8x.html#ixzz2PdJwNRNA ]

    Indeed. I laughed yesterday when I ABC World Today got a north shore retiree on to diss the announcement, all but saying he was going to wrack and ruin because of Labor.

    The interviewer asked him if he had over $2M in his super account. ‘Ahhh, no I have nothing like $2M in super’. The interviewer asked him if he was earning over $100,000 from his superannuation. ‘Um, no, I earn less than that’.

    So what was all the fuss about then?

  40. DTT

    I would urge you to listen to the words of Kevin Rudd in that last presser on Spill day. He urged his loyal supporters to get behind Labor and its leader PMJG.

  41. [Guytaur if you have a good friend who you see starting to mix with a dangerous crowd – drugs, crime etc.]

    Hyperbole alert! Honestly, talk about jumping sharks.

  42. Guytaur

    If you think that is REALLY how the ALP works I have news for you.

    Sorry but the right fighting the left has ALWAYS been a higher priority than fighting the Tories – especially in NSW. Most ALP factional operatives (BOTH SIDES) reserve their particular hate for the opposing faction.

    Sad reality

    Trust me Guytaur on this I am sure. Been there. Done that.

    Is this behaviour stupid. – Yes. Does it dominate ALP members YES.

  44. So, Bowen is going to lose his job? The inevitable meeting the ineffable?

    He didn’t think the blowback from the stench of NSW corruption would waft his way? He didn’t think that four years of destabilisation would have an impact? He didn’t think that four years of failed asylum seeker policies, his main ministerial responsibility, would have an impact?

    Or is it personal with the voters in his electorate?

    Anyway, it is clear that losing his job would be more important than anything else, and would certainly help explain, if not condone, his bad behaviour.

    The good thing is that he will have some time up his sleeve to do some reflection on meta issues such as the balance between how he might value his personal best interests as opposed to notions of the higher good and the national interest.

    He is young enough to re-skill. Perhaps he could use the Gillard Government’s relocation expenses program to get himself a job rigging gas offshore gas rigs somewhere west of West Australia?

  45. Guytaur
    Rudd can urge all he likes – I will make up my own mind.

    Abbott is scary and for this reason I will support Labor. But I do not have to like or respect them

  48. DTT

    The public has not seen a public whine like that of the Rudd supporters in ALP history.

    Supporters who will not shut up even when the person they support tells them its over.

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