The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).
The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.
A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.
The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.
bemused
Call someone who cares, perhaps RACV might be of assistance
[run off a few leaflets on the home computer and go and stuff them in letterboxes.
Doing something positive will make you feel a little less despairing.]
Amen. Plus the physical activity will stimulate your endorphins, making you feel happier.
Gump @Gump5000
Has anyone got a copy of Baillieu’s ministerial code of conduct?? #springst
Confessions @1935
“psyclaw:
I merely asked if anyone had seen it as I hadn’t.
Stop hyperventilating FFS.”
Stop misleading readers.
You asked a question @1768.
You made a misleading statement of fact @ 1776 and it is this false picture that you painted that I am referring to, as I specifically stated.
It’s a bit narky here today. If this is representative of the wider party then it’s no wonder someone like Abbott is leading in the polls. Labor need to get their act together and stop all the internal reflection.
nothing on ABC24 about Big Teds problems…
Very slow on the uptake i thinks.
[Zac Spitzer @zackster
Dear Old Media, if you really want to see what chaos and turmoil looks like, have a look at #springst]
1796
zoidlord
[Electricity Prices will be an issue at the election.
This is another example of how NBN is important (reduces the usage as most of the equipment is not active equipment).]
Plus enabling better Demand Management of power.
1910
zoidlord
[France approves NBN:
http://afr.com/p/technology/labor_is_right_on_broadband_says_IhINjJTrqgHvKdsnI4mtxK ]
“Ms Pellerin said that investors valued France’s infrastructure network and that it would encourage economic growth in the country.”
That would be the same fibre network in which Turnbull is investing?
Watched Meet the Press on Sunday that had Bill Shorten on.Mr Shorten absolutely blitzed Hugh Rimmington,who I have a lot of time for as he was an unbiased reporter.On this show though Hugh went after a number of gotchas which he no doubt thought would unerve Mr Shorten but unfortunately for Hugh Mr shorten came back with a few questions of his own which seemed to me to infuriate Hugh and which happened not once but at least 3 times.
Victoria 1946 well there you go …
If as I suspect, the tapes were made by Weston, then there may be still more to come out of this. Gee to be a fly on the wall of the Victorian Cabinet this morning. We’ll find out soon enough what was decided.
Any tech expert care to comment on how the tapes were made. To this ‘non-expert’, Weston’s speech is as clear as a bell, whereas both Nutt and Mantach sould, well, like they were on the end of a telephone line. Suggesting to me that Weston was taping the call. Or am I missing something?
1918
Boerwar
[Or go vote for Abbott. I guarantee you 100% he will give you something real to whinge about.]
There it is.
pscylaw:
Not that i really care, but I asked a simple question, repeating what I’d heard, making it very clear that I’d come in at the end of the exchange and hadn’t heard the full thing.
No misleading, but in any case, long before you decided to throw a hissy fit, my question was answered.
[Labor should set up some booths in Western Sydney locations where constituents are asked to bring along their power bills and tax returns to have them explained and to ask questions.
They may not like the answers.]
BK – top idea. A few staffers with volunteer help would do the job just fine.
Some people just don’t like going into pollies’ electoral offices so a booth in a shopping centre or similar could be the go.
zoomster
I have done that over many many years and if needed I would certainly do that again.
My concerns are genuine I have lived here for forty plus years. I hear what is going on around here and it is a worry.
Thank you for the civility of your comment.
Rossmore
I reckon you could be right. But. In any case Kennett belled the cat a few weeks back when he suggested Baillieu should step down as Premier. They knew the stench was coming
psyclaw@1954
Good to see someone else waking up to the nonsense confessions spouts at times.
so why do our US friends think of robo polls? Pew Research got these responses when asking:
[UPDATE:
Here’s a summary of some of the anecdotes and reasons for non-response from the comments section below; the number preceding each line is the number of commenters who cited that rationale:
28 – I do answer, but I often lie and give false answers, just to screw with them.
24 – I have caller ID and never answer any call from any number that is either unknown or blocked.
17 – I do not respond because I suspect that callers identifying themselves as “pollsters” are more likely telemarketers, fraudsters or deceptive political operatives engaged in “push-polling.”
16 – I do not respond because of potential privacy violation, that pollsters can correlate my answers with my identity; “I fear that they will use my political beliefs against my family.”
14 – I do not cooperate because I consider the polling industry an arm of the biased media, trying to influence the electorate.
13 – I only answer calls from people I already know; if I accidentally answer a robo-call or a call from a stranger, I just hang up.
11 – I refuse to divulge any personal opinions or data to an anonymous stranger, who could be ill-intentioned for all I know.
10 – “Why should I waste my time talking to these people who will skew the results anyway?”
7 – I’m among the 38% “unreachable” because I do not have a landline.
5 – I’d only cooperate with pollsters if they compensated me for helping them.
4 – It’s just a waste of time; I have better things to do with my life.
4 – I would answer calls from any pollster which I recognize from caller ID as being unbiased, but otherwise I don’t.
3 – I suspect that if I answer once, my number will be added to lists of positive respondents, precipitating more calls.
2 – After I burst out laughing when questioned if I supported Obama, the pollster hung up on me.
2 – I never used to answer pollsters, but recently I have started answering, to counter the inaccuracies in earlier polls.
1 – I hang up if I “don’t like the questions.”
1 – I decline to answer because if I say I’m not voting for Obama they will sneer at me as a racist.
1 – I don’t answer because I think that polls are a corrupting influence on public policy, that political decisions are based on poll results, not on what is actually best for the country.
1 – A pollster questioned me once. I ate his liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti.
6 – I refuse to cooperate with pollsters for all of the reasons above.]
gump got his answer.
MTBW
I lived near to Bankstown a few years ago. This is after the changes you are on about. As in last few years not changed that much still mostly Middle Eastern with Asian Mix.
These people will naturally vote Labor just like anyone else. They will react to issues for the same reasons as anyone else.
They will reject the racism and fear the LNP is peddling as we say Morrison just do. This includes the ones that are against Boats. They remember Jones and his racism over Cronulla.
They will not let racism win. In those suburbs in particular.
[Has anyone got a copy of Baillieu’s ministerial code of conduct??]
What?!! You mean he actually had one?
He’s fallen far short of his promises before the election.
A Labor Minister has dinner every night with the Editor of News Ltd. 😥
1822
meher baba
Too legalistic. This is political campaigning we are talking about, not forensic legal dissection.
davidwh:
It’s a small minority of people who comment here just to bait others and get a rise out of them.
Scrolling and ignoring the baiting is the only way I’m afraid.
And you guys think Labor is bad:
http://afr.com/p/national/baillieu_government_rocked_by_secret_Ssvb1fir609zRaEfyPmNeL
“The state director of the Victorian Liberal Party offered a former government staffer money to “disappear” for a few days following the release of a damaging Office of Police Integrity report”
It’s almost like something that Kidnappers do.
GG here it is
http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2367-premier-delivers-tough-new-code-of-conduct-to-reform-political-fundraising-and-lobbying-in-victoria.html
confessions
There is a real bona fide scandal within the Liberal Party. What do we hear from those who profess to be Labor party supporterrs? Crickets….. I heard the, carry on about Obeid, but silence on Sinodinos, Santoro and now the Bailleu scandal. As I say, it is often instructive as to what is not said by some.
BH@1963
These days all the MPs offices I know of are intimidating places with a counter like in a bank with security glass and a small grill to allow sound to pass.
Only after you have got past the person who comes to the counter will you be admitted to the office, through a normally locked door, if there is someone to attend to your issue or you have an appointment.
They used to be much more open and welcoming.
Baillieu could of course try the well worn, “I had no specific knowledge” line. He wouldn’t, would he?
victoria:
Yes, I’ve noticed the same behaviour in the past. Same as when the polls narrowed. Unless there’s something about the govt or the ALP to whinge about, they have nothing to contribute.
Still no mention on News 24 about Spring Street.
MTBW
I am guessing that the demographic shifts in your area are causing changes which give you heartache. I find it difficult that every time Labor squeaks it in, in my area, the boundaries are changed and the fight is on again.
Meher baba: Myself still can’t get over the Libs being led by a mick who sat at the feet of Santa. In my day the Libs were wall to wall freemasons, as Psephos also described recently.
Jokes aside, Abbott is seriously underestimated imo. I knew a number of intellectual groupers back in the old days and they had some of the best brains going around. Great at dinner parties, the arguments went to the wee hours. They were all disaffected Labor, the lot of them.
1971
Diogenes
[A Labor Minister has dinner every night with the Editor of News Ltd.]
And you wouldn’t believe what they get up to after dinner.
Though maybe not every night.
Bushfire Bill@1788
OK – I’m asking this with the benefit of hindsight with a bleedin obvious answer not doubt clear to all who heard that conversation, but here goes anyway –
“Dave” – So why the hell aren’t you reporting this to voters when you are going in so hard on every angle known against Gillard ?
Yeah – I know the reply would have been ‘Not our job’.
lizzie
You never know, we could be headed back to the polls sooner than later here in Vic
Nine press releases from the Victorian Gov last Monday. None today.
Pure coincidence?
@ConversationEDU: A baby in the US has been ‘cured’ of #HIV- see what our experts have to say #health http://t.co/738UMb5jUw
victoria@1976
What an idiotic comment!
Do you have inside knowledge of those matters? Didn’t think so. Neither do I.
I am finding out about them as they are revealed through the despised OM and blogs. There is no point just prattling on like you do with nothing new to add to what is known.
MTBW
We can’t, as individuals, change what’s happening in the wider party.
We can’t get them to change leaders (not that I want them to), change the way they’re delivering the message, or whatever our particular beef with them happens to be.
So let’s do what we can do.
The media is obviously working to an agenda, so let’s work around that, and get the message out in other ways.
As I’ve said before, win, lose or draw, you can at least sit down on the night of September 14 and know that you did everything you possibly could to get the result you want.
guytaur
Those are not the changes I am talking about. I do not live in an area where there are large numbers of immigrants. I live near the Georges River.
The area was home to hundreds if not thousands of War Vet homes on large blocks. The War Vets are dying now or in Nursing homes and those blocks are being bought by developers who are putting duplexes on them and getting over $600,000 for each one.
The whole area is changing and the electorate of Banks via the last redistribution runs right down to Kogarah and Hurstville now.
I would suspect that Jason Clare is experiencing the same type of change in Blaxland.
BTW I appreciate your civility unlike some others.
James Button is being interviewed on ABC24. Very interesting.
Canasta76 Could you provide me with the link to Meet the Press please.
I went to the site but couldn’t find it.
3AW may have the Baillieu presser live …. streamed live here …
http://www.3aw.com.au/
bemused
[They used to be much more open and welcoming.]
Funny what death threats will do!
When I first worked in the Benalla electorate office, it was very open and welcoming.
A few death threats (which were drunken pranks) and we had security alarms all over the place.
Nothing to do with any demands from us, but that’s the way the Parliamentary services react to any threats (they’re the official owners of the property, after all, not the MPs, who are merely tenants).
[Miglo @MigloMT
Well what do you know? I’ve been reported to Abbott’s office for running this story. http://wp.me/pOosp-3mH via @wordpressdotcom ]
lizzie@1981
I know MTBWs area of Sydney as it is where my brother and his family live and where my parents lived until their deaths.
It used to be very working class and my parents built their home in a War Service housing estate back in the early 60s.
Now almost all of those who lived there are gone and many houses have been either demolished and replaced or have been extensively renovated and extended. The occupants are wealthier and many no longer identify as working class or ALP voters.
It works the other way where I live where a once solidly Liberal voting area is now very marginal and when some solid Labor voting areas are added to the electorate, we now have Labor members where we once had nothing but Liberals.
With the NSW ALP stench on top of the demographics, I can see why MTBWs area will almost certainly be lost to Labor at the next election unless there are truly game changing developments.
MTBW
Well the people I was talking about are the people who have moved in since the ones you are talking about.
My suggestion is do not believe the polls or at least the reporting of them by the media. They have not changed dramatically.
As was shown on the poll of polls segment on Insiders Governments have won from there before.
Do not despair. Labor is performing well eventually that will cut through no matter how much old media tries to make out otherwise.
Also remember I am not a rusted on Labor person. So it is not a rusted on view.
Its the reality as I see it. As someone once said it is a race between Labor’s message and the collapse of Old Media and the way it reports things.
New Media is good and undoes a lot of OM messaging however there are still those that rely on old media who will take longer to get the message to.
A lot saw last night for the first time from a Live Speech that pensions will be cut by Abbott. That gets attention.
Bemused
You are the master of idiocy. You are forever prattling on about something, but it never appears to be detrimental to the fibs. Enough said. Im bored
Essential, Morgan, Newspoll and Nielsen from the last two weeks are all 55 or 56 when adjusted for house effects.
My increasingly formalised (but not quite there yet) aggregator now gives 55.3. Would be hard to defend any figure that wasn’t 55-point-something.
Confessons
Here is your 1776 in full:
“No, it was at the end of her press conference. She told the journo to get a better microphone. He protested so she told him to take the matter up with Lachlan and then went to the last question.”
And this is a question!!!!!
I’ll let lurkers decide for themselves.
As to your “stop hyperventilating” paltry defence of your misleading statement, have a look at PB Feb2, 12.06am.
Some real hyperventilater wrote about Evans and some unknown lady minister resigning (turned out to be Ms Roxon) “Labor is imploding”.
Sound familiar?
Here endeth the sermon.