Broadmeadows by-election live

Frank McGuire (ALP) 10516 51.0% -11.8% 10215 74.4%
Graham Dawson (GRN) 1227 5.9% -1.4% 3523 25.6%
Mark Hobart (DLP) 1180 5.7%
Merinda Davis (SEX) 1139 5.5%
Celal Sahin (IND) 4758 23.1%
Other Independents 1804 8.7%
Total 20624 13738
Informal 2216 9.7%
Counted (% of enrolled) 54.7% 36.4%
Booths counted (out of 13) 13 10

8.24pm. He also notes that Sahin ran McGuire close in Meadow Heights: 40 per cent to 37 per cent.

8.23pm. Antony Green reckons final turnout will be 76 per cent, which isn’t that unusual.

8.22pm. Meadow Heights added, so all the polling booths are in. Pre-polls and some of the postals will also be added this evening.

8.12pm. Roxburgh Homestead and Campbellfield added; only Meadow Heights to come.

8.01pm. Three booths added on meaningless Labor-versus-Greens two-party count.

8.00pm. Antony Green projects 67.1 per cent versus 31.9 per cent result for Labor versus Sahin on the final count.

7.58pm. GhostWhoVotes notes Sahin won the Upfield booth with 49.5 per cent primary vote.

7.56pm. Hume Central and Upfield booths added. By popular demand, Celal Sahin’s vote is now recorded separately in table. Psephos in comments notes Sahin has obviously harnessed the support of the electorate’s considerable Turkish community.

7.46pm. Independent Celal Sahin is easily the best performing non-Labor candidate on 17.8 per cent, and will finish far ahead of the Greens who are neck and neck with two other independents for third. So the notional two-party figures are purely a measure of the relative support for Labor and the Greens, not how the result will look after final distribution of preferences.

7.44pm. Lineball as to whether the Greens vote will be up and down. Not too big a shock: they also went nowhere in the Altona by-election.

7.43pm. Bethal, Broadmeadows North and Roxburgh Park primary vote results confirm the general trend, although the informal vote is back down to single figures.

7.41pm. I’ve added a row for the informal vote to my table, which is a very high 10.7 per cent from the five booths counted.

7.38pm. Two-party results from Glenroy East and Gowrie Park added, showing Labor with a thumping 81.8-18.2 lead over the Greens – but it’s by no means clear the Greens will in fact finish second, so this is as much a measure of their weak show as anything.

7.36pm. Broadmeadows, Coolaroo and Glenroy East booths added: Labor down quite sharply on the primary vote, further concerning for them with the informal vote is taken into account. Still a clear win on the primary vote however.

7.34pm. Antony Green points to high informal rate: 12.1 per cent.

7.30pm. Basically Labor took a big hit in their extremely strong Gowrie Park booth, but there was little change in weaker Glenroy North (which I have combined with the Glenroy booth, which is not in use at this by-election).

7.28pm. I’d made an error there on my swing calculations: Labor and the Greens are in fact both down, by 6.6 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.

7.24pm. To cut a long story short, Frank McGuire has won. Both Labor and Greens are up slightly, but the Greens trail the Sex Party and two independents.

7.22pm. Glenroy North and Gowrie Park have reported: results added.

7.20pm. “Not the most exciting by-election count I’ve covered” – Antony Green.

7.16pm. That same someone reports the Greens vote is down in Glenroy North: from 11 per cent to 8.2 per cent.

7.13pm. Taking their time. Someone on Twitter reports: “Labor’s @Frank_McGuire wins on primary at Glenroy Nth”.

6pm. Polls have closed in the Broadmeadows by-election, which is basically an exercise to rubber-stamp the entry into parliament of Labor candidate Frank McGuire. First results should be in at about 6:45pm. The above table shows the raw primary vote and percentage; booth-adjusted primary vote swing results, which match the available booth results against the equivalent from the November state election; and a raw two-candidate preferred figure, which assumes the Greens will finish second.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

106 comments on “Broadmeadows by-election live”

Comments Page 1 of 3
1 2 3
  1. [One shouldn’t count one’s chickens, but this may be the last ALP win for a long time.]
    You’re absolutely right. One shouldn’t coumt one’s chickens either now or in the future. Anything can happen.

  2. The attempts by all sides to spin what will be the bleeding obvious (comfortable Labor win) will be more interesting than the actual results.

  3. i hope the ALP cop a larger than expected swing. The preselection was a public example of what is rotten about the Party structure in Vic and the hypocracy of the Vic left

  4. As predicted, Sahin is coming second. There are many more Turks than Greens in Broady. Most of them vote Labor, but there’s still enough left over to allow Sahin to beat the Greens.

  5. Does Sahin have a base in the north of the electorate? Big result for him in Meadow heights and Broday itself….much weaker in Glenroy and Gowrie.

  6. I agree Psephos r “even when Labor is at a low ebb, working-class voters won’t vote Green.” even the booth by booth in the Fremantle Bi-election that Greens won showed they couldnt win one of the working class booths for quids

  7. “Psephos in comments notes Sahin has obviously harnessed the support of the electorate’s considerable Turkish community.”

    No, only the minority of it that didn’t vote Labor.

  8. If Labor had picked Burhan Yigit or another Turkish candidate, more Turks would have voted Labor, but more “others” would have voted for someone else. In a multi-ethnic seat like Broady, an Anglo candidate is often the least unacceptable to everyone.

  9. Brumby’s 2PV was 71%, so if McGuire’s 2CV is 67% as Antony estimates, that’s a pretty good result in the circumstances, allowing for the general meaninglessness of by-elections in safe seats immediately after general elections.

  10. i can just see them sitting on the pergola in broady “hey dude I just voted for Eddie Maguire” “no you idiot it wasnt Eddie from the the footy show it was the other Maguire…you know from spiderman”

  11. Broady is an interesting seat for it was one of the few ALP held seats that actually saw a positive ALP swing in the 1992 State Election.

    I wonder if any seats next month in NSW will do a Broady of 92

  12. The media are saying that Frank is a Journo the same as Eddie.

    I disagree with those who claim that Frank was unsuitable because he lives in Brighton. I don’t see anyone complaining about the federal member for Brighton being from Reservoir

Comments Page 1 of 3
1 2 3

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *