While you wait:
• The media has finally awoken to the possibility the Steve Fielding might yet win the race for the final Victorian Senate seat, which is the only result of the election still in doubt. The ABC projection has John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party winning the seat after narrowly escaping exclusion at “count 21”, where he keeps ahead of Fielding with 3.29 per cent of the vote against 3.14 per cent. If Fielding gets ahead – and there is reason to think name recognition will boost him on below-the-line preferences – it will be he rather than Madigan that snowballs to victory with the help of the other preferences. However, Antony Green reckons it more likely whoever gets ahead will ultimately land short of the third Coalition candidate, Julian McGauran, who will benefit from the Coalition’s traditional strength on late counting. More from Andrew Crook at Crikey. Those wishing to discuss the Senate count are asked to do so in the dedicated post below.
• Government formation negotiations have turned up a number of agreements on campaign finance and electoral reform. The Labor-Greens alliance proposes that the two parties will “work together” to enact reforms that were blocked in the Senate last year by the Coalition and silly Steve Fielding: lowering the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $11,500 to $1000, closing the loophole that allows separate donations below the threshold to be made to multiple state party branches, shortening the gap between receipt of donations and disclosure, tying public funding to genuine campaign expenditure, banning foreign donations and banning anonymous donations over $50. Julia Gillard has said the deal she has offered to the independents, which has not been made available to the public, is along the same lines. According to The Age, “Tony Abbott has signalled he is prepared to consider significant reform but is yet to reveal the specific options he is putting to the three rural independents”.
• Also in the Labor-Greens agreement is a promise to “consider” a long-standing Greens private members bill which proposes to abolish the “just vote one” above-the-line Senate option that commits the voter to the party’s registered Senate ticket, to be replaced with preferential ordering of at least four party boxes above the line (seven at double dissolutions). This would result in votes exhausting where no further preference is indicated, rather than locking every vote in behind the sometimes highly obscure candidates who survive to the final stages of the count.
• Labor and the Greens also promise to “work together” to enforce “truth in advertising”, which the Greens have been very keen on since Labor targeted them with a smear campaign before the March state election in Tasmania. Establishing the terms of such a measure would be highly fraught, as noted recently by Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo.
• Labor has agreed only to “investigate” the possibility of legislated fixed terms; the rural independents are calling for the length of the current term to be set by “enabling legislation or other means”.
• Tim Colebatch of The Age fancies Senate figures suggest Labor should ultimately win the two-party arm wrestle, the results of which won’t be known to us for at least a month.
• Tasmanian firm EMRS has published one of its regular polls of state voting intention, which has the Liberals down from 39.0 per cent at the election to 35 per cent, Labor down from 36.9 per cent to 34 per cent, the Greens up from 21.6 per cent to 26 per cent – overstatement of the Greens being a feature of EMRS polls. The firm suffered a further dent during the federal election campaign when its poll failed to detect the strength of support for Andrew Wilkie.
It would be lovely to think that the Libs got all excited about going back into government, so close that they could taste it, and it gets snatched away from them because of their own chicanery.
That would be justice….but we don’t live in a just world, so I’m only dreaming at present….
Andrew I reported the whole report to you re-Crook so nothing on issue of no-confidence motion, but should add to the Fibs anguish
mourning black,etc
[ I winder how the so called independent LNP auditors are reacting to this 7-11 Billion holes in the data. (Who were they again? …]
WHK Horwath, DemocatWork. Grew out of the late Sir Charles Court’s firm (Court was WA Liberal Premier from 1974 to 1982. His son, Richard Court, was WA premier from 1993 to 2001. Sir Charles major claim to fame was his determination to allow mining companies to destroy sacred sites at Noonkanbah. Vehemently anti-union, and very inclined to use the police as a political instrument to achieve his aims.
zoomster, it would be the sweetest victory of all. And hopefully part of Labor taking the economic fight up to the coalition. The myth that the coalition can manage the economy better must be busted
Victoria Senate
Lastest counting (As of this morning) has DLP (90966) 4,000 ahead of FF (86992) at the point of exclusion. The DLP appeaer to be notionally (GTV) increasing their lead.
[Crook says not happy with Monk’s offer & if not get better offer will stay on crossbenches]
He’s playing the same game as Wilkie but there’s 0 chance he’ll follow through. Abbott should ignore him since theres no way he’ll back Gillard in the end.
Gotta find a utube death march clip for the libs….
All that grief ya gotta have some music to go with it 🙂
but ltep, it leaves Abbott on 72 for the moment, which looks worse
Itep, Obviously Crook & Wilkie are playing games, but all this pressure on the Monk – can he contain himself?
Victoria Senate
SEX Part is on 127181 votes when Fielding is excluded. Maybe someone has doubled entered some data or failed to take into account the swings and round abouts in the count.
According to today’s SMH, Liberal insiders are pessimistic and expect Oakeshott/Windsor/Wilkie to join Bandt in backing a minority Labor Government.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm……….;)
It doesn’t look as though the coalition would be able to work with Treasury, since they won’t accept its costings. That’s a bit of a worry for a coaltion government.
Crook could choose to abstain in a no-confidence motion if neither side satisfies him.
[Itep, Obviously Crook & Wilkie are playing games, but all this pressure on the Monk – can he contain himself?]
His outburst yesterday was amusing “Awww! The Greens didn’t even give us a chance!”
Is it worth Julia negotiating with Tony Crook?
Yes, I know the mining tax is a major sticking point, but perhaps she could accomodate him in other ways?
Abbott promised to scrap the NBN.
Slash health spending by scrapping the GP super clinic.
Slash education by scrapping computers for schools and the BER.
Slash infrastructure spending by scrapping the mining tax.
Yet he is still $11 billion in deficit. What programs will he promise to cut to bring the budget into surplus.
As I pointed out late last night, the one Labor MP doing well out of counting of the postal votes is Rudd in Griffith – his 2PP figure has shot up by 0.5% since Monday.
As a partial aside: in case you missed it: that Scandanavian who the climate sceptics liked to cite has done a U-Turn & is now supporting a price on carbon – see Age also
I’m sure she’s trying at least a bit Evan. She should offer him as much as possible if only to push up what Abbott needs to offer him.
I’ll give you all the same advice I have given since the day after the election: let’s just wait and see how it goes before we react to it.
I don’t want us all to start cheering and celebrating, only to find out KOW are backing Abbott! I’m glad to see some optimism – that’s healthy but acting like it’s a done deal and cheering is ill-advised right now.
Luvly poem from Patricia WA on LP. Post 31
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/09/01/tony-windsor-says-treasury-costings-show-coalition-black-hole/
[Mr. Rabbit of Downunderland
Thought he was in Wonderland.
Together with White Queen Julie
They both thought that truly, ruly
They could be restored to power.
He stood acclaimed, man of the hour.
But now Windsor Caterpillar,
Famous Jaberwocky killer,
Cheats our Mr. Rabbit of his goal,
Pointing him to the big black hole
Of Tweedledum and Tweedledee
a.k.a. Robb and Joe Hockey.
Dodo Oakeshot with Mad Bob Katter
Question him on another matter.
Surely Mr. Rabbit’s failure
Must mean Red Queen Julia rules Australia?]
TSOP
Good advice. Things are definitely looking better for Labor, but we must not get ahead of ourselves. Until we get confirmation which way KOW will go, we must be patient.
TSOP
Nothing wrong with counting the chickens until they hatch. when they hatch they hatch then we’ll see what breed of gooses we get
Hockey on AM
Someone cut the SMH in on my info from last night ?
I don’t normally give a crap about “costings” (the feral economisation of politics, if you ask me) but since Phoney, Sloppy and Robbery are such chronic LIARS I make an exception.
ITs pretty obvious isnt it: they were hoping to be in the Lodge before anyone noticed how dodgy they were.
Busted! Time to move on the Indies. We dont want clowns in charge.
Hockey: conservative bias allowance? what the hell is that?
I hope Fielding makes it. He’s great entertainment in the Senate when he gets charged up, and, unlike now, he’ll be harmless in the new Senate.
I watched Lord Stern’s Press Club address yesterday. It is always good to get a perspective of things from an outsider. He intimated that Australia are well placed to forge ahead with the new industrial revolution re new clean energy technologies and that an ETS is absolutely key to this happening. He also apparently had meeting with Windsor and Oakshott day before discussing these things. That can only be good for Labor’s chances.
[According to today’s SMH, Liberal insiders are pessimistic and expect Oakeshott/Windsor/Wilkie to join Bandt in backing a minority Labor Government. ]
They should be pesssimistic.
They. dont. deserve. it.
One possible explanation for the difference in costings between Treasury and the coalition is that Abbott may be using cash accounting in his assumptions, ie the sale of medibank, scrapping of the NBN and BER, whilst Treasury is using accrual accounting.
Joe Hockey says this is all “a difference of opinion”. The journalist is pushing the issue though, that treasury analysis is black and white. Hockey getting peeved.
George see Treasury document for explanation of Conservative bias – connect via AGE
Having said that, Windsor seemed very concerned about the black hole and Abbott is going to need to be convincing as to why his numbers are so messy – especially when his accountants said they were fine.
Could we finally be seeing this drawn to a close. I hope so.
hockey on costing’s “there will always be a difference of opinion ” BRILLIANT
Fielding is only entertaining in the car crash sense. He is plainly out of his depth.
Too many of the reptiles of the media were and are prepared to go all with whatever abbott hockey robb said, without question.
Now they all have egg all over their faces.
Journo: “Given yesterday’s great economic growth figures, looks like Labor has taken the “best economic mangers” title from you”
Sloppy: “Well, that’s your opinion Sandra. Great new tax!!!”
[I hope Fielding makes it. He’s great entertainment in the Senate when he gets charged up, and, unlike now, he’ll be harmless in the new Senate.]
Maybe it might calm him. Knowing he won’t be out of a job next year might make him less hostile in the meantime…
Wait and see, I guess. Haven’t really been watching the senate races. Is he really close to winning that last place?
Thats Dr Bogan, looking now.
Treasury : this column of numbers don’t agree with your total at the bottom
Hockey : Its just a difference of opinion.
How have they got away with this for so long !
[I hope Fielding makes it. He’s great entertainment in the Senate when he gets charged up, and, unlike now, he’ll be harmless in the new Senate.]
And what if at the next election he ends up with the balance of power? Some people are too dangerous/stupid to allow them anywhere near parliament.
The ‘difference of opinion’ between Robb and Treasury sounds a lot like the one between Paul Hogan and the ATO.
I want Fielding to lose.
Let me make that perfectly plain.
All parties in parliament should be able to confidentially cost policies with treasury at any time. There’s an obvious advantage for the incumbent executive that’s not healthy especially when there is this silly preoccupation with costings having to be precise to the dollar.
And go ATL prefs.
All the convenience of your old system, but now with new ‘democracy’.
The issues are starting to stack up now…..NBN, ETS, the $, trust…..no wonder the Libs are feeling pessimistic.
James J
Precise to the $11billion dollars don’t you mean?
It’s the little things that give the game away. Walking to work this morning and what should I see as The Australian’s advertising cover sheet for today’s news? Some tosh by Paul kelly about Labor selling out its history (no mention of the Treasury costings). There is nothing in the Courier Mail paper or its website news re the $11bn balck hole. What a joke. Poor old Shanners must have choked on his Corn Flakes writing about the treasury costing last night.
When costings are out to the tune of Billions it is no *silly preoccupation*.
The libs moved heaven and earth to AVOID their costs being scrutinised.
Now they have been caught out.
We cleary have a ALP minority now.
72 ALP, 1 Greens, Oakshott and Windsor.
Eventually a promise from Wilkie not to block supply and not to vote ‘no confidence’
Crook and Katter also on crossbenchers.
Enough to ensure no challenge to a continuing Gillard govt.
The meeting with Oakshott and Windsor with Garnaut and Stern is my political highlight of the year.