Friday, August 26
477 pre-polls go 252-225 to Liberal, lead out to 868.
Thursday, August 26
5pm. Another 806 postals go 447-359 to Liberal; the lead is now 820.
3pm. 1865 absent votes have favoured Liberal 946-919, increasing the lead to 721.
Wednesday, August 25
5pm. The Liberals have enjoyed a good batch of postals breaking 801-616 their way, increasing their postal vote share from 52.7 per cent to 54.1 per cent. They have also gained five votes from 667 pre-polls and 38 from further rechecking of ordinary votes. That increases the margin to 770 votes, though my projection is that outstanding absent votes will rein that in to 369.
2pm. Rechecking of ordinary votes have boosted Labor by 99 votes, while a further 955 absent pre-polls have followed the earlier trend in favouring the Liberals 505-450. Extrapolating current swings on pre-polls, postals and absents across uncounted votes, I project a Liberal margin of 269 before taking into account the small but unpredictable share of provisional votes, on which Labor could maybe hope to recover as much as 100 votes if they’re lucky.
Tuesday, August 24
7pm. The Liberals have gained another 131 votes through rechecking of ordinary votes, which have produced a net gain of 80, and a further 705 pre-polls, which have added 51. The margin is now 586.
4pm. 2546 postal votes have been added out of what will be a total of about 3500 and they haven’t delivered the miracle Labor had hoped for, favouring the Liberals 1775-1417 and pushing the lead out to 455. This is still quite a lot better for Labor than in 2007, when the Liberals’ postal two-party vote share was 7.1 per cent higher than for ordinary votes rather than 2.5 per cent. Funnily enough, the current Liberal lead is exactly what Labor were able to scrounge back on absent votes in 2007. However, that becomes 330 when you factor in the 1 per cent swing against Labor, and the remaining postals look likely to widen the gap by maybe another 100 votes. But could provisional votes hold an ace for Labor? Last time there were only 130 of them compared with 638 in 2004, because self-serving Howard government law changes made votes cast by people who had moved within the electorate without updating their address inadmissible. This time provisional votes will include the 600 or so late-enrolling voters who were enfranchised by the High Court ruling in favour of GetUp!, nearly every one of whom has been personally contacted not only by the AEC, but also the ALP who know such votes would heavily favour them. (UPDATE: Propmanoz in comments explains I was wrong about this: supplementary lists of affected voters were used to admit the voters on polling day. The only provisional vote dividend for Labor would be an increase in the number of voters who make the effort to follow up on providing the required identification if they had none on the day, which would be expected given the importance of the contest).
3pm. 704 absent votes have broken 376-328 Labor’s way possible the Gosnells area I affect I alluded to two days ago which has narrowed the Liberal lead from 363 to 317. That makes the current batch 3.7 per cent better for Labor than the ordinary votes compared with 2.2 per cent in 2010, so there’s a suspicion the rest of the absent count will come from different areas and thus not favour Labor to the same degree. There should be at least 2000 absent votes to go: if the trend from the first batch continued, Labor would claw back an extra 136 votes.
Monday, August 23
921 absent pre-polls, cast at centres outside the electorate an thus not counted on election night, have gone 477-444 in favour of the Liberals and widening the lead to 382. Contrary to what I foreshadowed yesterday, no polling day absent votes have been added.
Sunday, August 22
Tomorrow there will be about 1000 absent votes added, which Labor expects to be dominated by Gosnells area residents voting across the boundary at the Westfield Carousel megaplex a Labor crowd. Absent votes from farther-flung locations will follow over coming days. A bagful are expected from Broome where, I am told, 50,000 people are attending a festival (I think it must be this one, notwithstanding that it does not actually start for a few days). I would presume its audience to be blue-green: resident of the prosperous hills suburbs around Kalamunda, but not entirely representative of them. Given there were 6500 absent votes in 2007, that still leaves a lot left over from various other locations.
Throughout and beyond, postal votes perhaps as many as 4000 will be added to the count, in addition to a smaller number of international votes as they arrive. This is where Labor may have an ace up its sleeve: it had 2420 applications processed compared with just 681 for the Liberals, dramatically reversing a 911-549 deficit in 2007. This gives them the advantage that they and not their opponents can target their residences with timely campaign and how-to-vote material (an area self-evidently crying out for reform).
Saturday, August 21
This post will be progressively updated to follow late counting in Hasluck, where Liberal candidate Ken Wyatt finishes the night with a lead of 369 votes (0.28 per cent) over Labor incumbent Sharryn Jackson. This turns into a 0.6 per cent lead on Antony Green’s projection.