EMRS: Liberal 42, Labor 27, Greens 26 in Tasmania

Most pollsters normally take a sabbatical after an election, but Tasmania’s unprecedented Labor-Greens coalition agreement is such that we should be thankful EMRS has entered the field. Their poll shows Labor losing support to the Liberals, the former down nearly 10 per cent on the election to 27 per cent (after including “leaning” voters and excluding the undecided, which other pollsters do for their headline figures) and the latter up three to 42 per cent. The Greens are on 26 per cent against 21.6 per cent at the election, but it should be noted that EMRS consistently overrates them – in particular, they had them at 29 per cent in the last pre-election poll, and were nearly 7 per cent behind the eight-ball with Labor on 30 per cent. Will Hodgman has gained six points as preferred premier since February to hit 40 per cent, against 29 per cent for David Bartlett (down three points) and a new high of 23 per cents for Greens leader Nick McKim (up two points). As always, the sample size was 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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