Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in South Australia

It appears today’s Galaxy poll in the Sunday Mail shows the Liberals with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. Mystifyingly, we learn the Liberals are ahead from the paper’s editorial as carried on the Herald-Sun site: and thus have to fill in the blanks ourselves. The two-party preferred figure was provided to me by a reader who also says Isobel Redmond has a 49-42 lead over Mike Rann as preferred premier. It can be presumed Galaxy has followed its usual practice of polling 800 voters, and that the margin of error is thus about 3.5 per cent. Be it noted that this is exactly the result they produced a week out from the Western Australian election, which came in nearer the money than either Newspoll or Westpoll.

UPDATE: Big thanks to Inner Suburbia in comments for relating the following:

The poll is of 800 people.

Primary votes: Liberal 42, ALP 36, Greens 10, Family First 6, Other 5
2PP: Liberal 51, ALP 49
Better Premier: Redmond 49, Rann 42, Uncommitted 9
“Which party, Labor or Liberal, do you believe would be best for SA’s economic prosperity?”: Liberal 49, ALP 43, Uncommitted 8

Then some questions comparing the leaders:

Arrogant: Rann 70, Redmond 13
“More talk than action”: Rann 61, Redmond 23
Understands SA’s problems: Rann 40, Redmond 45
Easy to understand: Rann 38, Redmond 48
Committed to their beliefs: Rann 34, Redmond 45
TELLS THE TRUTH: Rann 21, Redmond 52
Inexperienced: Rann 8, Redmond 79

Then some questions on policy alternatives:

Labor’s Adelaide Oval redevelop: 47, Libs new stadium: 33
Labor’s stormwater plan for gardens: 36, Libs stormwater plan for everything: 59
Labor’s new hospital: 34, Libs keeping RAH where it is: 61
Labor’s national ICAC: 43, Libs state ICAC:46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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